Trudeau Popularity - or not (various polling, etc.)

[Furniture]

Frankly I think Mr Ibbitson is wrong about an imminent election, but not for anything he said in this piece. The reality is that only the Conservatives are ready for a fall election. Neither the NDP nor the Bloc are going to side with the Conservatives to scuttle the government any time soon.

I wonder if they might be willing to take the risk anyway. If you know you're fighting for second in the election you can afford to go in with less spending.

If either is seen as propping up an increasingly unpopular LPC, it could hurt their brand and lead more people to vote ABL(and the lackies)...

 

[Good2Golf]

I want to see Trudeau fight to host the G7…

 

[Haggis]

It would be interesting to see what kind of stance the Bloc would take if they became the Loyal Opposition, so long as they couldn't force the government into action. How much would a regional, possibly separatist, party stand up for the rest of the country. Especially if the decision affected their province.

The Bloc have been in that position before from 1993 -1997, facing off against a Liberal government.

 

[brihard]

Is Ottawa South just as safe? The MP is Dalton McGuinty's brother, so it can't be that up for grabs.

Tough to say. Ottawa South is absorbing a significant new subdivision due to redistricting. A large and growing part of the Carleton riding (Poilievre’s riding) will become part of Ottawa South. Not sure how that will affect the dynamic, though my gut feel is a newish low density suburb in Ottawa likely isn’t too far either left or right.

 

[dapaterson]

Tough to say. Ottawa South is absorbing a significant new subdivision due to redistricting. A large and growing part of the Carleton riding (Poilievre’s riding) will become part of Ottawa South. Not sure how that will affect the dynamic, though my gut feel is a newish low density suburb in Ottawa likely isn’t too far either left or right.

Ottawa suburbs want high density services with low density taxation...

 

[RangerRay]

It is - its been that way since...forever. Bill Blaikie held that seat for a very long time. His son held it but he resigned to work for Wab Kinew the Premier.
There is a strong socialist sentiment in Winnipeg.

People here are still nostalgic about the 1919 General Strike, ferchristsake!

 

[Halifax Tar]

Frankly I think Mr Ibbitson is wrong about an imminent election, but not for anything he said in this piece. The reality is that only the Conservatives are ready for a fall election. Neither the NDP nor the Bloc are going to side with the Conservatives to scuttle the government any time soon.

No, but if the Liberals have any honour within him (lol), then considering both the polling and these two by-elections, it's clear that the government has lost the confidence of the house, and they should dissolve parliament.

The LPC dont really have a reason to dissolve Gov, and if they fall they can blame it on the opposition parties. JT seems himself as a a holy knight holding off the dirty conservative hoards at the castle walls, so any moment in Gov is a win for him. You have to think like a narcissist with a messianic complex to understand him.

Also holding off until next fall continues to provide the CPC with ample sea room and time to blunder and implode, as they have been known to do.