Trump: "NATO countries need to meet it's defence obligations and the EU needs to not be dependent on Russian energy". Then takes chess pieces away from China and Russia (VEN, Iran, now Cuba).
Almost every other country including Canada: laughs then criticizes all of the above.
The carrot never worked, but Trump has applied the stick and only now are some countries making some effort to bolster NATO defence.
Are those the signals that lead you to that theory?
And those steps
are being taken. NATO spending is boosted massively, and NATO nations are working to buy more new kit- though the U.S. has been a bit cranky about European nations prioritizing European suppliers over U.S. ones.
Despite those steps being taken, now he’s having a big tantrum and threatening NATO withdrawal because nobody wanted to join him after the fact in a war he unilaterally started without a clear articulation or end goals. He seems to think NATO membership entitles the U.S. to do whatever they want in anyone else’s sovereign territory and airspace. He doesn’t like being told that other countries decline to become a party to his war.
He has also explicitly and militarily threatened the sovereignty of a NATO member.
Any claims that his issue is with Russian energy purchases ring hollow in the face of the U.S. easing up on Russian sanctions.
If the U.S. remained concerned with Russia they would have continued to materially supply the war in Ukraine; the single most cost effective way to diminish Russia’s capabilities and the threat it poses to the western alliance. Instead he pretends that
selling weapons and kit to the Europeans is the U.S. charitably supporting Ukraine. That’s like Home Hardware saying they’re providing me aid in a basement Reno because I dropped my credit card on some lumber.
Under Trump the U.S. is isolating itself diplomatically and economically, weakening the collective deterrence against Russia, and even seems to be tolerating Russia sharing intelligence with Iran that is costing the U.S. lives and military equipment.
So yeah, those are some of the signals that, at a minimum, nothing Trump says regarding any intent to deter or protect against Russia should be taken seriously. What’s not clear to me is if he has some other coherent strategy, or just doesn’t know what he’s doing.
