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Trump administration 2024-2028

HavokFour said:
I wonder why he didn't want to disclose company financial records? ;)
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Especially in light of Trumps suit against JPMorgan where they also will demand discovery on his financials. That’s the case where the banks dumped him because of alleged money laundering. Ties in with Todd Blanche granting (in May) Trump family immunity from IRS prosecution.
 
Canada added 75k jobs.

America just lost 23k jobs.

Seems like those tariffs are not having the effect the Americans seem to think they are having.
 
MacNav63 said:
Democrats may still flip the House, but flipping the Senate is a long shot that just keeps getting longer. They have a Senate seat in Michigan with a retiring Senator that they should be holding but have put that all in play by choosing a hard left candidate in the primary who trails the Republican candidate in polling. The Dems should also have been able to finally knock out Susan Collins in Maine, who is forever in their sights, but picked a candidate with a very questionable past (Nazi tattoo, sexual misconduct allegations) who they then had to force to step down. There were a whole slew of polls released this week and not one shows the Ds winning the Senate. Very close but with lots of toss-ups, including Maine and Texas. But I've been hearing Ds say Texas is in play for at least the last two cycles and yet it remains solidly red.

Even in the House, there seems to be more focus on intra-party fights between the mainstream and DSA candidates than on actually winning.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm becoming less and less optimistic about their ability to close the deal, despite all the gifts they've been handed.
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Generic Congressional Ballot_ Latest Polls _ Silver Bulletin.jpg

I don't know where you are getting your polling, but according to the aggregators the Dems are not struggling at all.

And Trump is historically unpopular, so I doubt republicans will even come out to vote. MAGA yes, but republicans on a whole? Independents? No.
 
"Generic congressional ballot" measure is relevant to House, not Senate (and not presidency either).

Due to some advantages favouring Republicans (mainly, more efficient voter distribution), customarily D+1 to as much as D+3 is reckoned a dead heat. RCP average has been running between D+6 and D+7 for some time now. Ordinarily this should indicate a comfortably high likelihood of Democrats winning the House. However, the DSA faction is really swinging for the fences this year and the resulting intra-party turmoil (basically, it's their turn to have the establishment vs insurgent fight now, and they're having it big time) and a few well-chosen (made for TV ad sound bite) fever swamp statements by DSA candidates are more likely to drag them down than push them up.

The DSA (like most insurgent factions) has figured out that the best place to get a toehold is in safe seats - swamp the primary and rely on the voters pulling the party lever without much regard for who the actual candidate is. Moderates are being squeezed out of safe seats, forcing the DNC centrists to expend more resources fighting tossups. (And they're relatively short of money, with potential donors not impressed by the DSA-backed candidates.)

Primary results suggest that the DSA candidates are substantially failing to attract working class and non-white voters, but pulling in more of the post-secondary educated vote. The Democratic voter defection problem is getting worse, not better. It is not a demographic pattern for success. If polls don't catch the pattern shift, the usual rules of thumb for judging how the election might land are out the window (ie. they could overperform more than usual in the very blue districts, and lose overall despite posting a higher total vote).
 
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