Turmoil in Libya (2011) and post-Gaddafi blowback

[Rifleman62]

Watching various video news feeds, it appears to be extremely dangerous to be anywhere near the rebels who have "traditional" fire discipline. I have yet to hear of anyone being shot other than by a sniper. Repeated by Cdn media.

What goes up, must come down.

Yesterday's firefight near the hotel commenced with sniper fire from highrises than appeared in the distance. Vigorous automatic fire, including from the hip,  was returned in the general direction of several distant highrises.

 

[a_majoor]

Governor Palin's proposal:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/08/sarah-palin-libya.html

Sarah Palin's four-point plan on Libya
August 26, 2011 |  5:12 am

President Obama may still be dining with the elite at fancy island restaurants on Martha's Vineyard, but Sarah Palin is pondering the future of Libya and wisely pushing to wind down American involvement in that latest military entanglement.

Palin may not be in the race for her party's 2012 presidential nomination, but the Republican former governor released her four-point Libya plan late Thursday night to her 3.2 million fans on Facebook. Her first concern is to protect U.S. interests in that troubled land.

"The fall of a tyrant and sponsor of terrorism is a great day for freedom-loving people around the world," she wrote. But then warned that the path to democracy is incomplete there and "we must make wise choices to ensure that our national interests are protected."

First, Palin said, the Obama White House must avoid celebrating too heartily and recall instead that tribal and sectarian fighting can erupt as it did in previous conflicts, such as in Kosovo, Bosnia and Iraq.

Second, Palin said, "history teaches that those with the guns usually prevail when a coalition overthrows a tyrant." And she warned the rebel command is an outgrowth of the Islamic Libya Fighting Group, some of whose commanders have links to Al Qaeda.

Third, Palin writes, "we should not commit U.S. troops or military assets to serve as peacekeepers or perform humanitarian missions or nation-building in Libya. Our military is already over-committed and strained, and a vaguely designed mission can be the first step toward a quagmire."

Finally, Palin said terrorist groups are trying to co-opt the Libyan revolution and the United States must use its intelligence assets to thwart that.

 

[Kalatzi]

Not that the end game is developing some interesting details are coming out

Remember GW1 - The Iraqis killing kids in incubators that sort of thing.

Sooo, Blood thirsty tyrant - Monster Crazy yes???? Da???

Take a look this http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/16session/A-HRC-16-15.pdf

UN Commission on human rights report on Libya.

After reading that I'm sure that we'll al be glad when the Oily bast*rd is gone. Oil's well that ends well.

 

[Good2Golf]

Not that the end game is developing some interesting details are coming out

Remember GW1 - The Iraqis killing kids in incubators that sort of thing.

Sooo, Blood thirsty tyrant - Monster Crazy yes???? Da???

Take a look this http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrcouncil/docs/16session/A-HRC-16-15.pdf

UN Commission on human rights report on Libya.

After reading that I'm sure that we'll al be glad when the Oily bast*rd is gone. Oil's well that ends well.

UNHCR? 

Yeah, whatever....  :

 

[frank1515]

To add to G2G. Isn't the UN Disarmament Conference headed by a North Korean???  Just goes to show how much of a farce and no-value-added organization the UN has become.

Looks like the UN has a bad track record when choosing its Leaders...

Edited for grammar

 

[The Bread Guy]

So, how much longer are we staying?

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird is leaving open the possibility of continuing Canadian military involvement in Libya after the scheduled Sept. 27 end date.

Canada's participation in NATO's air mission over Libya has been extended once, but the government hasn't yet said whether it will propose another extension. The NDP, the official Opposition, is against another extension.

Asked what happens after Sept. 27, Baird said he's taking the situation one day at a time.

"This is quickly coming to an end. It's not over yet. Canada will obviously be there in theatre to support the Libyan people," Baird told host Evan Solomon on CBC's Power & Politics.

"The end is in sight. We're not there yet, but let's take it one day at a time," he said.

Pressed again on whether the troops will return to Canada on Sept. 27, Baird reiterated "the job is not yet complete."

"I would think that once the people of Libya are safe, that'll be something that we’ll consider," he said ....

CBC via Yahoo News, 30 Aug 11

The apparent overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi’s regime may not signal an end to Canada’s military involvement in Libya, Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird says.

Canada’s role in NATO’s close support of the rebels-turned-rulers is due to end on Sept. 27, when Parliament’s mandate for involvement expires. But Mr. Baird is not ruling out continuing that mission into October and beyond.

Although the civil war appears to be ending, “It’s not over yet,” Mr. Baird said on CBC’s Power & Politics. “Canada will obviously be there in theatre to support the Libyan people.”

He added that the Conservative government was taking the situation “one day at a time.” ....

Globe & Mail, 30 Aug 11

 

[frank1515]

I don't anticipate having ground troops in Libya unless there is a direct request from the Libyan Rebel Leaders to have Canadians in their country. If there is such a request, I guess it would be sort of like a PRT element; we help them rebuild what NATO bombed.

This is all speculation, of course.

 

[The Bread Guy]

I don't anticipate having ground troops in Libya unless there is a direct request from the Libyan Rebel Leaders to have Canadians in their country. If there is such a request, I guess it would be sort of like a PRT element; we help them rebuild what NATO bombed.

This is all speculation, of course.

May not necessarily be ground troops, if one believes the mutterings from unidentified sources in Brussels:

NATO explored on Wednesday options for a role after the war in Libya ends, including the possibility of continuing to patrol the country's skies and enforce an arms embargo.
While NATO warplanes are maintaining pressure on diehard remnants of Moamer Kadhafi's regime, alliance
ambassadors reviewed in Brussels a set of post-war scenarios presented by military staff, officials said.

Any role for NATO in Libya after hostilities there end would depend on requests from the United Nations, the officials stressed, noting that the alliance wants the UN to take the lead in post-conflict management.

NATO insists that it will not send any ground troops to keep the peace in Libya whenever the war ends. This appears to be a "firm view" maintained by alliance members, a NATO official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"I see the primary area of interest as some form of logistical support" to a UN mission, the official said, adding that this could include a sealift and an airlift.

The military alliance could also maintain its no-fly zone and a maritime arms embargo if the UN requests it, the official said .....

Get out while the getting's good.

 

[frank1515]

Yeah, I figured.  Keeping the skies clear and a Warship in the area might be the best way to serve the Libyan people. Status Quo for now until the UN says otherwise, I suppose.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Prime Minister Stephen Harper warned dictators of the world Thursday that Canada will not shy from using force to oust them, even as he told Canadian troops here that their role in Libya is not yet finished. "There is, I am afraid, as we have just been briefed, still fighting to be done," Harper said in a strident address to several hundred Canadian soldiers at this military airfield in southern Italy. "And undoubtedly, there will be, even after that, difficult days ahead." ...."

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says the work of Canadian forces in Libya has given the country new hope. He says Canada punched above its weight in the international military effort to oust Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi. And he says NATO’s success proves soldiers, not diplomacy, were the only way to end his bloody regime. “For the Gadhafis of this world pay no attention to the force of argument,” he told around 100 soldiers gathered at the NATO military base in southern Italy. “The only thing they get is the argument of force itself. And that you have delivered in a cause that is good and right.” But Mr. Harper told the troops the fighting isn’t over yet ....

And one man's opinion from QMI/Sun Media:

Enough. Bring them home. For the most part, Canadians have accepted the rationale for our military's involvement in the Libyan civil war, now apparently winding down. We know that, as NATO partners, we must stand alongside our allies when the shooting starts. We've done that for nearly a decade in Afghanistan. Moammar Gadhafi was a madman and one of the most cruel tyrants in a part of the world known for producing them. His role in the Lockerbie bombing alone justifies Canada's active participation in his ouster. To date, that participation has included 650 Canadian forces personnel, a flight of CF-18 fighters, refueling planes, surveillance craft and a ship. At last count, Canada has dropped 550 bombs in the Libyan campaign. We're proud of our pilots and their support crews. We're proud of our sailors. We applaud the work they've done in bringing, we hope, democracy to Libya. We're happy that Gadhafi is no longer running Libya. Now bring them home ....

 

[Edward Campbell]

I agree with the editorial's prescription, "Bring them home," but not with the rationale.

We can and should take a role - even "punching above our weight" - in selected military adventures missions like Afghanistan and Libya. We should steer clear of most nation building, especially in places like Afghanistan and Libya where the culture is poorly understood (by us) and is resistant to our tender ministrations.

I am especially wary of CivPol training missions. My suspicion is that our training in Afghanistan, Iraq and, if we go, Libya will just produce better armed thugs to serve dictators and, in a few years, the government of the day will have to answer for headlines like "Canadian trained cops arrest and torture democracy activists."

There is plenty of national building needed all over the world - let the Saudis, Qataris and maybe the Chinese do it in Islamic states. we have a "back yard," the Caribbean, that needs a lot of help - military, CivPol, political and economic - which we can provide at least as well as e.g. America and Britain, allowing them to go fiddle in the Islamic Crescent.

 

[The Bread Guy]

There is plenty of national building needed all over the world - let the Saudis, Qataris and maybe the Chinese do it in Islamic states. we have a "back yard," the Caribbean, that needs a lot of help - military, CivPol, political and economic - which we can provide at least as well as e.g. America and Britain, allowing them to go fiddle in the Islamic Crescent.

But would that get Canada enough access to the "big kids table"?  Not saying that, in and of itself, access to the table should be the main reason to go bigger.  I like your idea of dealing with our backyard first, but when we're being sold as "punching above our weight", my read into that is that it sorta-kinda means "so we should be considered with the heavy weights".

 

[frank1515]

There is plenty of national building needed all over the world - let the Saudis, Qataris and maybe the Chinese do it in Islamic states. we have a "back yard," the Caribbean, that needs a lot of help - military, CivPol, political and economic - which we can provide at least as well as e.g. America and Britain, allowing them to go fiddle in the Islamic Crescent.

There's also no significant oil pits in the Caribbeans... That is what they mean by "Defending Canada's interest abroad". If we're going to go help people in other countries, we have to get something in return, like an oil contract or a discount of some sort. (this is simplified, obviously)

 

[GAP]

I am especially wary of CivPol training missions. My suspicion is that our training in Afghanistan, Iraq and, if we go, Libya will just produce better armed thugs to serve dictators and, in a few years, the government of the day will have to answer for headlines like "Canadian trained cops arrest and torture democracy activists."

There is plenty of national building needed all over the world - let the Saudis, Qataris and maybe the Chinese do it in Islamic states. we have a "back yard," the Caribbean, that needs a lot of help - military, CivPol, political and economic - which we can provide at least as well as e.g. America and Britain, allowing them to go fiddle in the Islamic Crescent.

will have to answer for headlines like "Canadian trained cops arrest and torture democracy activists."

  We just allow them to immigrate to Toronto....for the next G20... ;D

Seriously, by not putting our toes in the water, we leave the ideology in the hands of precisely the people with whom our ideology differs......

 

[Edward Campbell]

Both milnews.ca and frank1515 are, sadly, correct. But that still doesn't make nation building in the Islamic Crescent a good idea, nor does it make it one that has a better than 10% chance of success, in my opinion.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Tea leaves to be read from the PM's remarks in Trapani today?  Highlights mine....

“Thank you very much, thank you General Bouchard, for your kind introduction.

“I want to thank our Italian hosts. I also want to give greetings to Minister Baird, to Ambassador Fox, to everyone who is with us today.

“Particularly greetings to you, the men and women of the Royal Canadian Air Force.

“Indeed, greetings to every member of Canada's Armed Services here today.

“As you will have heard by now, there is a meeting of leaders later today in Paris.

“There, we will take stock of the recent, remarkable progress in Libya and we will discuss that country’s future.

“But I wanted to come here first, to thank you personally.

“And to congratulate all of you for a job that has been very well done.

“For without your commitment, your bravery and your actions, there would be no reason to meet later today.

“Nothing to talk about, nothing to plan for, no hope for the Libyan people.

“But, thanks to you, there is new hope.

“Which gives some proof to the old saying: ‘a handful of soldiers s better than a mouthful of arguments.’ 1

“For the Gaddafis of this world pay no attention to the force of argument.

“The only thing they get is the argument of force.

“And that you have delivered in a cause that is good and right.

“And all Canadians thank you for the great job you have been doing.

“Ladies and gentlemen, Gaddafi is now out of power – not yet finished – but his remaining control is inexorably ebbing away.

“And history will record this: that it was the good work of Canada’s Armed Services 2 – your work – working with our allies, that enabled the Libyan people to remove Gaddafi from power.

“They used to claim that in international affairs, and you’ve heard the quote many times: ‘Canada punched above its weight.’

“Well, to punch above your weight, you first have to be able to punch.

“And that is what you have done here.

“Numbers don't tell the whole story, but it bears repeating that the RCAF has flown – without caveats 3 – more than 750 strike sorties against Gaddafi’s forces – a good 10 per cent of the strikes.

“And Canadians should also know that the taking of Tripoli by rebel forces was materially assisted by CF-18 missions clearing away Gaddafi mechanized forces before the rebel advance.

“Meanwhile, the Royal Canadian Navy frigate Charlottetown, and now her sister ship, Vancouver, have done splendid work, also without caveats3 enforcing the maritime blockade of Gaddafi’s forces.

“In other words, in the job of neutralizing Gaddafi, Canada played a part well out of all proportion4.

“My friends, that unwavering professionalism reflects the greatest possible credit upon every one of you.

“Last week a NATO official told the world's press that Canada had indeed, and I quote, ‘punched above its weight’

“That’s what others say.

“This is what I say:

“Soldier for soldier, sailor for sailor, airman for airman, the Canadian Armed Forces are the best in the world.

“Of course, no one claims we have done this alone.

“We are under a UN mandate5 and part of a NATO force, led with great distinction, I am proud to say, by the Royal Canadian Air Force’s own Lieutenant-General Charlie Bouchard.

“And I would be remiss if I did not praise the leaders who are co-chairing this evening’s meeting – President Sarkozy and Prime Minister Cameron – for their resolve in guiding the international response to Gaddafi’s brutality.

“They have stayed the course.

“And the world – a world which will not include Muammar Gaddafi – will be a better place for it.

“As Canadians, we have not forgotten his complicity in the 1988 Lockerbie bombing.

“That vile attack upon a defenseless U.S. airliner took the lives of two Canadians, along with 268 other innocent people.

“But that was routine for Gaddafi. Terrorism was what he did. He bankrolled terrorists
the world over.

“And, of course, Gaddafi terrorized Libyans for 42 years – 42 years, to this very day.

“Therefore, when in March he turned his guns upon his own, reform-minded citizens, he was again acting true to form.

“But this time, the people, even as ill-equipped and poorly organized as they were, would not yield.

“And this is, above all else, their victory.

“And their opportunity for a better future.

“So, as we look ahead, we presume no right to tell the Libyans how they should govern themselves.

“Nor do we have unrealistic expectations.

“There is, I am afraid to say as we were just briefed, still fighting to be done. And undoubtedly, there will be, even after that, very difficult days ahead6.

“The National Transitional Council has before it a formidable task.

“It must avoid reprisals.

“It must repair the most basic functions.

“And the Council must create a representative government that speaks for all Libyans.7

“But because you held the ring while Libyans fought their own fight with their oppressor, the Libyan people are now free to choose.

“This is the best of Canada’s military tradition.

“For we are not a country that makes war for gain or for territory.

“We do not fight for glory.

“And if we covet honour, it is only a reputation for doing the right thing in a good cause.

“That is all.  And that is enough.

“So, let me leave you with this: just as Canadians thank you for your work here, I know that countless thousands of Libyans have reason to be grateful too.

”Few will ever know you by name.

“Some may not even yet be born.

“But if Libya can seize the opportunity that now lies before it, the real results of your actions these past five months will be seen in little things.

“Things we in Canada take for granted in our country.

“Families going about their lives without fear. Children, for the first time, with hope for the future.

“Freedom of speech, freedom of assembly – the freedom of simply being left alone.

“You will never know them, but in their silent gratitude for a better life, you can take great pride.

“Just as all Canadians can take pride in the difference that you have made.

“Congratulations, and on behalf of all of us, thank you and God bless all of you. God bless Canada.”

1 - Watch the usual anti-war suspects pick on this line as proof that Canada's tone and approach will be getting more militaristic ....
2 - ..... balanced by the use of "Armed Services" instead of the official "Armed Forces" title - and I see it as a title because it's been capitalized in the speaking notes.
3 - Not like some of the NATO allies in Afghanistan in the past 
4 - Variation on the "punching above our weight" theme, highlighted elsewhere in red
5 - Something the usual anti-war suspects will ignore.
6 - Just what it says, carried over from previous media interviews.
7 - New government, be sure to play nice, so you don't become like the old government, as can happen in these sorts of revolutionary situations.

Edited to add following:
1)  PM:  No more Canadian sanctions against Libya.
2)  Welcoming home HMCS Charlottetown (media advisory attached):  Note the message development - we've gone from deploying to "Enforce UNSCR 1973" through deploying "In Response To Situation In Libya" and "(Enforcing) A No-fly Zone Over Libya" to now "Fighting The Gaddafi Regime".

 

[Edward Campbell]

The Globe ans Mail (John Ibbitson) is predicting that "Sometime before Sept. 27, Stephen Harper will likely ask Canada’s Parliament to renew the federal government’s mandate to use force in support of what used to be rebel forces in Libya.

Parliament will give him that mandate. That’s one benefit of having a majority government. It’s also a recognition that, on this file at least, the Prime Minister has played his hand exceedingly well."

Ibbitson concludes by saying (my emphasis added): "We’re not home yet. The new regime is untested and potentially unstable. Colonel Gadhafi remains at large, and pockets of the country appear to still be loyal to the old regime. Continued NATO support could be needed for months to come, in which case Mr. Harper has promised Canada will continue to do its part. And he’ll have Parliament’s support to do it.

In the meantime, maybe, just for a moment, we can stop the partisan sniping back here and celebrate the past six months. The Arab Spring has been messy since the first demonstrations in Tunis, but it is still spring. Just as so many of us never thought the Berlin Wall would fall, so too many of us never imagined a wave of popular uprisings would bring down so many Arab strongmen.

But they did. And Canada was there, in the thick of it, doing everything it could to help. In our nation’s story, this is a good page."

I hope the PM notes what we have done well, in Afghanistan and Libya: combat operations - what soldiers do best; and what has been more problematical: nation building. Now, it's not that I am against nation building or even against trying but I believe that when we embark on nation building campaigns we must do so with the reasonable certainty that we will fail ~ we mustn't plan on failure but we need to be prepared for that very real possibility, even probability.

 

[FoverF]

I believe that when we embark on nation building campaigns we must do so with the reasonable certainty that we will fail ~ we mustn't plan on failure but we need to be prepared for that very real possibility, even probability.

Well, here's my take on this subject:

You have to define your goals clearly and realistically. For example, nation building in Afghanistan is a credible mission. But many of the Canadian public consider that to mean we are aiming for a box-standard western liberal democracy. Which is wholly unrealistic.

Instead, I look at Afghanistan's neighbors, such as Iran and Pakistan. If we could help Afghanistan achieve a stable authoritarian theocracy like Iran, or the kind of long-standing intermittent democracy seen in Pakistan, then that would be fantastic. It would be leaps and bounds better than any other government seen in Afghanistan in decades. We're not going to turn Afghanistan, or Libya, into a liberal utopia, some kind of Islamic version of Holland. But if we can help implement a substantial upgrade over a military tyrant, or the Taliban, which lasts for more than a few years, then we have helped build a nation.

If we can help Afghanistan catch up to its' neighbors, such as Iran, or help Libya catch up to nations like Algeria or Egypt, then we have done a tremendous good. It will of course be called an atrocity by those who insist that their own agenda will lead to a global utopia. But in my humble opinion I would call that successful nation building.

 

[Edward Campbell]

Well, here's my take on this subject:

You have to define your goals clearly and realistically. For example, nation building in Afghanistan is a credible mission. But many of the Canadian public consider that to mean we are aiming for a box-standard western liberal democracy. Which is wholly unrealistic.

Instead, I look at Afghanistan's neighbors, such as Iran and Pakistan. If we could help Afghanistan achieve a stable authoritarian theocracy like Iran, or the kind of long-standing intermittent democracy seen in Pakistan, then that would be fantastic. It would be leaps and bounds better than any other government seen in Afghanistan in decades. We're not going to turn Afghanistan, or Libya, into a liberal utopia, some kind of Islamic version of Holland. But if we can help implement a substantial upgrade over a military tyrant, or the Taliban, which lasts for more than a few years, then we have helped build a nation.

If we can help Afghanistan catch up to its' neighbors, such as Iran, or help Libya catch up to nations like Algeria or Egypt, then we have done a tremendous good. It will of course be called an atrocity by those who insist that their own agenda will lead to a global utopia. But in my humble opinion I would call that successful nation building.

I nominate FoverF for Minister of Foreign Affairs US Secretary of State.

 

[The Bread Guy]

And how'd Gadafi's wife and three kids get to Algeria, if you believe the South African media?

Thirty-five Special Forces-trained South Africans were responsible for this week’s audacious operation that spirited Muammar Gaddafi’s wife and three children from Libya to safety in Algeria.

The “battle hardened Iraq veterans”, who were apparently paid $15000 (R105000) each, were recruited three weeks ago, after being interviewed at a Sandton hotel.

Details of the operation were revealed to The New Age this week by a source close to the group, who said he was invited to take part but declined.

And while Libya’s Transitional National Council was this week seeking the return of Gaddafi’s family from Algeria, the group of mercenaries is believed to be on standby to conduct further similar operations.

“We’d like those persons to come back,” rebels’ spokesperson Mahmud Shammam said of the Gaddafi family after Algiers on Monday announced that Gaddafi’s wife, Safiya, two sons, a daughter and their children, had crossed the border into that country.

The New Age has learnt reliably that interviews for the extraction operation were conducted on August 17 at the Balalaika hotel in Sandton by Sarah Penhold*, who operates from Kenya.

The New Age has seen copies of an email sent to a former SA Special Forces operative, inviting him for an interview.

Penhold describes herself on the internet as an executive protection and security specialist proficient in a wide range of firearm handling and safety techniques.

Her LinkedIn profile reads: “Trained in advanced and tactical high-speed driving. Medically trained to first aid level 2 and 3, with a focus on trauma injuries.”

She describes herself as an “excellent communicator, with good interpersonal skills” who is “able to work as part of a team or as an individual”.

She describes herself as being a “resourceful operator, with well-honed planning and communication skills, who is adaptable and able to work well under pressure and to tight deadlines”.

The mercenary group left South Africa two days after the interviews, flying from OR Tambo airport to Dubai.

From there they flew to Tunisia, which shares borders with Algeria and Libya, where they were issued with firearms. They then travelled by road into Libya.

According to a source close to the men involved, some members of the group last week phoned home, saying that they were holed up in a Tunisian hotel.

“They described their situation as very complicated,” according to the source, who asked not to be named as he feared retribution from the South African authorities ....

The New Age, 2 Sept 11

* - there is a Sarah Penfold listed in LinkedIn with all the info mentioned above.