U.K. General Election/Government, 4 Jul 2024 - ?

[Kirkhill]

"Pat McFadden repeats commitment to welfare reform

"Pat McFadden has pledged to “reform the welfare system” under Andy Burnham after it was confirmed he would stay in post as Work and Pensions Secretary.

"Mr McFadden said the Government’s mission “must be to support people into work and spread opportunity”.

"His private complaint that “every meeting I have is ‘who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others’” was made public in the Mandelson files last month."

....

We certainly have deeper pockets than any of them, including the UK. And God knows what will happen when Labour's new benefits champion, Andy Burnham, ends up confronting the banks.

.....


No sooner did I finish typing that than the Telegraph announced this:



John Healey has been made Chancellor as Andy Burnham unveils his Cabinet.

In a surprise move, the former defence secretary will succeed Rachel Reeves in No 11, where he is expected to be tasked with filling a £15bn hole in the military budget.

Mr Healey quit his former post last month over Sir Keir Starmer’s failure to commit to spending 3 per cent of Britain’s GDP on the military by 2035.

The appointment will send shockwaves through Westminster after Shabana Mahmood, who has retained her role as Home Secretary, was widely regarded as the front-runner to succeed Ms Reeves.

Ed Miliband, the former net zero secretary, had also been tipped for the role but was appointed Foreign Secretary by Mr Burnham.

Many Labour MPs and unions became concerned appointing Mr Miliband would spook the bond markets.

Louise Haigh, who was forced to quit as transport secretary after details of her historical fraud conviction emerged, has been brought back into the Cabinet as First Secretary of State.

The position effectively makes her Mr Burnham’s right-hand woman and she will be responsible for enforcing his will across Whitehall.

....

All of this positive.

This is a Blue Labour cabinet.

Strong on defence
Strong on immigration and crime
Strong on conventional energy and the North Sea
Weak on woke.

Starmer captured Labour by appealing, as most do, to the left.
He captured government by not being the defeated government.
He tried to govern from the centre but lacked both stones and political skills.
Perhaps Burnham has better skills.

...

Another Carney Government?

A left wing party in power confronted with the choice between keeping their principles and losing power or losing power and keeping their principles. Labour balances parliamentary politicians against activist unions. The activists grab headlines. The politicians want their pensions and those come with being re-elected. They move with the democratic wind.

...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/07/20/andy-burnham-downing-street-keir-starmer-labour-cabinet/

Mod edit to move into existing UK gov't thread

 

[Blackadder1916]

Andy Burnham is the new UK Prime Minister.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/uk-burnham-pm-king-charles-starmer-9.7276160

Andy Burnham officially becomes British prime minister​

Andy Burnham became the fifth British prime minister in four years and the seventh in a decade as he formally accepted an invitation Monday from King Charles to form a government.

The meeting quickly followed on the heels of Keir Starmer offering his resignation.

Burnham secured nominations from 379 of the 403 Labour lawmakers in the House of Commons to officially became leader of the Labour Party last week.

 

[dangerboy]

And how long will he last? Longer than a head of cabbage?

 

[OldSolduer]

And how long will he last? Longer than a head of cabbage?

At least he may not overstay his welcome

 

[Altair]

Bur

And how long will he last? Longer than a head of cabbage?

Burnham is a Labour PM.

Labour voters will want certain left wing policies implemented.

Burnham will run into the same problem Starmer did.

The UK is effectively broke.

So all his, I'm going to do this, I'm going to do that, the bond markets will say ohhhhh no you wont.

All this to say, I give him two budgets.

 

[daftandbarmy]

The continuing economic decline seems inevitable regardless who's in power but an anti-business, tax and spend Labour government might have a tougher time of it than most ...

Brexit has been an economic failure​

Ten years ago, the UK voted to leave the EU. Since then, an extensive body of research has studied the impact of Brexit on the national economy. Researchers have analysed how the June 2016 vote, the January 2020 departure from the EU and the January 2021 implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) have affected prices, wages, employment, domestic and foreign investment, output, productivity, trade and financial markets, among many other outcomes.

The overall findings are emphatic: Brexit has made the UK poorer than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU. The best available estimates imply that by the end of 2019 Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 2 per cent to 3 per cent. Quantifying the impacts from 2020 onwards is harder because of the Covid-19 pandemic and energy price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But recent analysis suggests that the costs have risen over time and that Brexit may have reduced UK GDP per head by as much as 8 per cent by the start of 2025. An 8 per cent decline would represent a loss of £3,300 per person in 2024.The overall findings are emphatic: Brexit has made the UK poorer than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU.

Brexit has been an economic failure | LSE British Politics

There is ample evidence that Brexit has damaged the UK’s economy.Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

 

[Altair]

The continuing economic decline seems inevitable regardless who's in power but an anti-business, tax and spend Labour government might have a tougher time of it than most ...

Brexit has been an economic failure​

Ten years ago, the UK voted to leave the EU. Since then, an extensive body of research has studied the impact of Brexit on the national economy. Researchers have analysed how the June 2016 vote, the January 2020 departure from the EU and the January 2021 implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) have affected prices, wages, employment, domestic and foreign investment, output, productivity, trade and financial markets, among many other outcomes.

The overall findings are emphatic: Brexit has made the UK poorer than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU. The best available estimates imply that by the end of 2019 Brexit had reduced UK GDP by 2 per cent to 3 per cent. Quantifying the impacts from 2020 onwards is harder because of the Covid-19 pandemic and energy price shocks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But recent analysis suggests that the costs have risen over time and that Brexit may have reduced UK GDP per head by as much as 8 per cent by the start of 2025. An 8 per cent decline would represent a loss of £3,300 per person in 2024.The overall findings are emphatic: Brexit has made the UK poorer than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU.

Brexit has been an economic failure | LSE British Politics

There is ample evidence that Brexit has damaged the UK’s economy.Putting up trade barriers, higher import prices and uncertainty have made the UK poorer.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

They needed a trade deal to replace that of the EU. They thought America would give them one, but Obama wasn't about to do that, and he didn't have time.

Trump is famously anti trade.

Biden was preoccupied with Covid.

And Trump 2 is even more famously anti trade.

The best they could do is CPP, which, to be fair, is a tidy little trade deal, but its everyone elses secondary trade deal, its the UKs MAIN trade deal, and that's a big problem.

 

[Eaglelord17]

The problem with Brexit and the EU was never about money. It was about sovereignty. Unfortunately they reached a point in the road where they had to choose which was more important to them.

 

[ytz]

The problem with Brexit and the EU was never about money. It was about sovereignty. Unfortunately they reached a point in the road where they had to choose which was more important to them.

The problem was that they believed they could have "sovereignty" without any compromise or price because they were exceptional. Real life doesn't work like that.

I think the UK will push to rejoin the EU once the Boomers and most of Gen X are no longer electorally significant. Survey after survey shows the generational divide on this. The only question is whether the EU will let them. Most don't want to give up the Pound. And I don't see the EU ever allowing them in with any carve outs after Brexit. But if the Pound drops in value enough.....

 

[Halifax Tar]

The problem was that they believed they could have "sovereignty" without any compromise or price because they were exceptional. Real life doesn't work like that.

I think the UK will push to rejoin the EU once the Boomers and most of Gen X are no longer electorally significant. Survey after survey shows the generational divide on this. The only question is whether the EU will let them. Most don't want to give up the Pound. And I don't see the EU ever allowing them in with any carve outs after Brexit. But if the Pound drops in value enough.....

BREXIT isn't the only kink in EU armor. Lots of discontent growing in the old world.

IMHO it should have stayed an economic bloc and stayed out of immigration and social issues. They went too far. Countries should be able to decide who can and cannot cross their borders and receive their milk and honey. And they should be free to deport or remigrate those who are undesirable or incompatible with their own systems and cultures.

 

[ytz]

BREXIT isn't the only kink in EU armor. Lots of discontent growing in the old world.

Absolutely. But Brexit has substantially damaged the Euroskeptic cause in Europe. Now that members can see what it's like to actually be outside the Union.

IMHO it should have stayed an economic bloc and stayed out of immigration and social issues. They went too far. Countries should be able to decide who can and cannot cross their borders and receive their milk and honey

This is quite frankly not possible. And a substantial misunderstanding of the EU and Schengen. This misunderstanding was actually part of Brexit too. The only way to have a real economic union is to have free movement of labour along with free movement of capital. I think people forget what Europe was like before Schengen and the Euro. The bag of currencies on any trip. The difficulty of travel. Industry suffered massively incurring tariffs and misaligned regulations across dozens of jurisdictions. The Euro and Schengen have dramatically improved the quality of life and ease of commerce in Europe. There's a reason so many countries clamor to get in, even now.

And they should be free to deport or remigrate those who are undesirable or incompatible with their own systems and cultures.

Governments are mostly free to deport who they want. There's some basic European Human Rights regulations. But the impact on immigration controls is vastly overdone in the media. What they lack is capacity. Especially the frontier states around the Med. They can also have misaligned interests. For example, Germany was more than happy to take in Syrian refugees. But that ignored the impact on Greece, the Balkans and Italy as those folks made their way there.

Indeed, the real irony of Brexit is immigration. All those Brexiters were mostly campaigning on reducing brown immigration. Let's be honest. That's what Brexit was about. And then Brexit sent home all the Eastern Europeans (particularly Poles) working in the UK. Instead of non-European immigration going down. It went up. And Poland now has an economic boom from returnees with a trajectory that puts them on track to surpassing the UK economically (in some ways). Poland should catch up to the UK on GDP per capita by 2032, based on current projections. Biggest Brexit win yet.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Absolutely. But Brexit has substantially damaged the Euroskeptic cause in Europe. Now that members can see what it's like to actually be outside the Union.

This is quite frankly not possible. And a substantial misunderstanding of the EU and Schengen. This misunderstanding was actually part of Brexit too. The only way to have a real economic union is to have free movement of labour along with free movement of capital. I think people forget what Europe was like before Schengen and the Euro. The bag of currencies on any trip. The difficulty of travel. Industry suffered massively incurring tariffs and misaligned regulations across dozens of jurisdictions. The Euro and Schengen have dramatically improved the quality of life and ease of commerce in Europe. There's a reason so many countries clamor to get in, even now.

Governments are mostly free to deport who they want. There's some basic European Human Rights regulations. But the impact on immigration controls is vastly overdone in the media. What they lack is capacity. Especially the frontier states around the Med. They can also have misaligned interests. For example, Germany was more than happy to take in Syrian refugees. But that ignored the impact on Greece, the Balkans and Italy as those folks made their way there.

Indeed, the real irony of Brexit is immigration. All those Brexiters were mostly campaigning on reducing brown immigration. Let's be honest. That's what Brexit was about. And then Brexit sent home all the Eastern Europeans (particularly Poles) working in the UK. Instead of non-European immigration going down. It went up. And Poland now has an economic boom from returnees with a trajectory that puts them on track to surpassing the UK economically (in some ways). Poland should catch up to the UK on GDP per capita by 2032, based on current projections. Biggest Brexit win yet.

I have feeling we may see the EU change in the future. Google search.

 

[ytz]

I have feeling we may see the EU change in the future. Google search.

Sure. Never said they wouldn't. Changes and trends are normal in the life of any institution. But I don't think we're going to see the fantasies of Euroskeptics gaining traction post-Brexit. I think Meloni is a good example of how right wing politicians moderate once in power. They say a lot of things on the campaign trail. But they all understand what ending free movement or the common currency would do to their economies.

 

[Altair]

Sure. Never said they wouldn't. Changes and trends are normal in the life of any institution. But I don't think we're going to see the fantasies of Euroskeptics gaining traction post-Brexit. I think Meloni is a good example of how right wing politicians moderate once in power. They say a lot of things on the campaign trail. But they all understand what ending free movement or the common currency would do to their economies.

Watching meloni get most everything she wants while morphing into a completely establishment politician has been the greatest display of how the UK bottled it.

 

[ytz]

Watching meloni get most everything she wants while morphing into a completely establishment politician has been the greatest display of how the UK bottled it.

The UK is on its fourth PM since Meloni got elected. France is on its fifth.