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U.S. 2012 Election

On Nov 6 Who Will Win President Obama or Mitt Romney ?

  • President Obama

    Votes: 39 61.9%
  • Mitt Romney

    Votes: 24 38.1%

  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .
I think gridlock will serve the economy well in 2011/12. New discretionary spending will be very difficult but, equally, so will any cuts to the eventually unsustainable entitlements.

But gridlock may serve Obama well in 2012. It may become obvious that the Republicans, with or without the Tea Party, have no useful answers and Americans may well decide to trust the devil they know rather than one they don't.

 
E.R. Campbell said:
I think gridlock will serve the economy well in 2011/12. New discretionary spending will be very difficult but, equally, so will any cuts to the eventually unsustainable entitlements.

But gridlock may serve Obama well in 2012. It may become obvious that the Republicans, with or without the Tea Party, have no useful answers and Americans  may well decide to trust the devil they know rather than one they don't.

I expect that to be the case...in which case they may just continue to vote against the incumbent and thereby ensure gridlock in perpetuity.

That might not be such a bad strategy: a steady turnover of single term politicians.


 
Except that, eventually, the Americans, just as the Brits are now doing, must come to grips with both taxing - they need a lot more and it doesn't matter what Americans or their elected leaders say, the former are in denial and the latter are all cowards - and spending - they need a lot less, beginning with the Pentagon - and ditto.

I don't know when the piper is to be paid, probably while I am still alive - and I'm pushing 70.
 
E.R. Campbell said:
Except that, eventually, the Americans, just as the Brits are now doing, must come to grips with both taxing - they need a lot more and it doesn't matter what Americans or their elected leaders say, the former are in denial and the latter are all cowards - and spending - they need a lot less, beginning with the Pentagon - and ditto.

I don't know when the piper is to be paid, probably while I am still alive - and I'm pushing 70.

No disagreement with any of the above.... and I expect you may see it long before you hit 80.

Cheers, Sir.
 
The big difference between the US and Britain is the size of the economy. Once the economy gets rolling it will generate alot more revenue without raising taxes. I am sure you remember the term Reagonomics ? Overtaxation can stifle an economy just look at Europe.
 
An important note we have all overlooked; the non elected bureaucracy will become a formidable opponent of the TEA party and other limited/good government movements. How they can be delt with will be the defining issue over the next few election cycles:

http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2010/10/31/aftermath/

Aftermath

Posted By Richard Fernandez On October 31, 2010 @ 2:07 pm In Uncategorized | 70 Comments

Whether it is journalists caught on tape [1] “discussing ways in which they could potentially embarass the Senate campaign of Republican Joe Miller” or Rep. Keith Ellison [2] challenging an anti-voter fraud organization and getting counter-challenged himself, the political gloves on every side are coming off.  People are acting like they don’t care if they make enemies, as if the last lap or the last round of the bout has come. Maybe it has. The Guardian [3] described the stakes, describing Obama at a poorly attended rally warning the “gains” of the last two years were in jeopardy.

    Thousands of empty seats at Barack Obama’s last campaign rally of the midterm elections today highlighted the decline in his popularity and the potential meltdown facing the Democrats at the polls on Tuesday. …

    Speaking in Cleveland at the end of a whirlwind four-state tour , Obama said it was an important election. “We have the chance to set the direction of this country for many years to come,” he said. He warned that the Republicans could roll back all the progress of the last two years if they won big.

Janet Daley [4], writing from Britain, warns her readers to “prepare for a new American revolution.” That declaration may be premature because the revolutionaries are still in the process of getting their objectives straight and casting around for the means to take back the political parties. The revolution will not take place on election day, but it may begin there. Seizing Congress will not by itself solve the problem.  However, the sheer ferocity of the campaign suggests that all sides see it as a Rubicon, which once crossed means that more is to follow. Perhaps nobody sees 2010 as an end, only as the beginning of a very fundamental struggle.

The proximate cause of the conflict, even though he is ultimately not its basic antecedent, is the president. The Washington Post [5] calls Barack Obama the divider-in-chief. He didn’t create the fence; he simply made it impossible to straddle it.  The president has made it necessary to choose political sides. In a way,  Barack Obama has done more than any recent president to cast the issues starkly.

    With the country beset by economic and other problems, it is incendiary that the president is not offering a higher vision for the nation but has instead chosen a strategy of rank division. This is an attempt to distract from the perceived failures of his administration. On issue after issue this administration has acted in ways that are weakening the office of the president.

One possible reason for the unparalleled degree of conflict is that the old truce is over.  The old “go along to get along” idea has vanished. It its place is a zero sum game, with “friends” and “enemies.” Washington is now simply not big enough for two contradictory ideas, neither of which can abide the other. Charles Krauthammer [6] quoted the president:

    In a radio interview that aired Monday on Univision, President Obama chided Latinos who “sit out the election instead of saying, ‘We’re gonna punish our enemies and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us.’”

So if the president loses Congress, how will he make good on his threat to punish those who took it from him or let it happen? That avenging “we” isn’t going to be the now-Republican Congress. It will be the federal bureaucracy led by the executive branch. As Krauthammer notes, “over the next two years, the real action will be not in Congress but in the bowels of the federal bureaucracy. Democrats will advance their agenda on Obamacare, financial reform and energy by means of administrative regulation, such as carbon-emission limits imposed unilaterally by the Environmental Protection Agency.” That will be the main card for 2011, and what a humdinger it will be. If a conservative Congress attempts to cut back on the agencies, the giant bureaucracy will be fighting for its life. In that capacity it will be formidable. In zero-sum game against the president and the agencies, Congress may be the political underdog without allies.

Where will it find them? The only plausible allies that Congress can line up behind it are the states. The states are the other separate power in the federal structure. Their stake in the outcome is as great as anyone else’s.  At some point in an all-in political conflict, especially when money and authority is concerned,  the several states are likely to play a part in proceedings.  It is unlikely they will watch completely passively from the sidelines. With Washington in a meltdown and a divided capital struggling in unparalleled acrimony, there’s a possibility the states will be drawn in, perhaps through Interstate Compacts [7], or simply through political persuasion. What will they do about ObamaCare, financial reform, and carbon emissions?

What may occur after the Tea Party breaks over the capital is not that the wave will dissipate, but that the impetus will return to to the states and spread downwards from there. If 2010 was the year of the battle for Congress, 2011 may well be the year of the struggle for the grassroots. Act I is about to end.  The curtain will soon rise on the second.

Tip Jar or Subscribe for $5 [8]

Article printed from Belmont Club: http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez

URL to article: http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2010/10/31/aftermath/

URLs in this post:

[1] journalists caught on tape: http://www.riehlworldview.com/carnivorous_conservative/2010/10/ktva-cbs-11-compounds-scandal-after-caught-targeting-millers-senate-campaign.html

[2] Rep. Keith Ellison: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ClZjjCPY0w

[3] Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/31/barack-obama-midterm-campaign-rally

[4] Janet Daley: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/8098844/Midterm-elections-2010-Prepare-for-a-new-American-revolution.html

[5] Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102905966.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

[6] Charles Krauthammer: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/28/AR2010102806270.html

[7] Interstate Compacts: http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/2010/09/30/after-2011/

[8] Tip Jar or Subscribe for $5: http://wretchard.com/tipjar.html
 
tomahawk6 said:
The big difference between the US and Britain is the size of the economy. Once the economy gets rolling it will generate alot more revenue without raising taxes. I am sure you remember the term Reagonomics ? Overtaxation can stifle an economy just look at Europe.


I remember Reaganomocs very well; I also remember both the domestic and global financial situations 25 or so years ago and, in my opinion those situations are quite different. Clinton and Bush spent everything Reagan earned and then Bush decided to live on borrowed money. The biggest difference between Reagan, Bush 41 and even Clinton and Bush/Obama is debt. America is deeply in debt, which it has been before, to outsiders, which is a new situation. In past situations when America ran huge deficits it was indebted, mainly, to itself and it could manage its own future; now America's future is mortgaged and the mortgage holders are in Asia.

America is in denial because the American people are unwilling to face their own harsh realities. The national leadership is totally and completely broken and neither the Tea Party nor Colbert/Stewart will help. Unemployment is, most likely, going to stay at around 10% for a few more years - eating away at small businesses and, thereby, costing even more jobs. If unemployment goes to 12% then the US economy will, likely dip back into yet another severe recession with an even slower recovery.

America needs Margaret Thatcher; it's got Goofey:
lgfib03disney1619.jpg
. Good things are not on the horizon - not anytime soon, anyway.
 
A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP
Voters don't want to be governed from the left, right or center. They want Washington to recognize that Americans want to govern themselves
Scott Rasmussen

In my view Rasmussen has it nailed.

It has become like a game of teeter-totter.  Two people on a teeter-totter and the game lasts indefinitely.  They alternate up and down in perfect balance and harmony and mobile stasis is achieved.  A third person shows up to play.  They can't sit down at either end because that stops the toing and froing.  One side is anchored firmly on the deck while the other is stuck up in the air with legs dangling and no way to influence the game.  The third person sits in the middle.  There they sit watching the other two go up and down.  No fun. No influence.  Then they start swaying and they realize that the swings are getting harder and faster.  They have influence after all.  They stand up and start actively driving the swings.  They drive the swings harder until somebody is bounced off with a sore butt.  Game over.  No swinging......until they move over to take up the vacant seat and the game starts all over again.

This is the "third party" and the "disenfranchised" and the "apathetic" discovering that they can influence the game.  Perot's people were kept off the teeter-totter.  For a while they and many others sat at the point of balance.  A couple of elections ago they started swaying.  Now they are standing up and actively swinging.  And somebody is going to be bounced off with a sore butt.

As to the need to do "something" to save the economy....I am not convinced.  I am of the opinion that we have people fighting for control over which direction should be taken with no-one having any clear understanding of the impact of their actions or any clear understanding of what is happening.  Under those circumstances it is time to follow the advice of my father (an old dairy engineer)  who said that you should not be afraid to "let the milk run on the floor".  Even though spilt milk costs money it is only while it is spilling that you get a chance to diagnose the situation.  Only then can you see what path the milk is actually following.  If you are pressing buttons in a panic you have no clue what is happening or what you are doing.  When you accidentally hit one buttton that stops the spillage you don't know if that was the right one or the only one.  It may have only masked the underlying problem which will reappear when yo start up again .... with more spilt milk and tears.

If you don't know what you are doing the best thing to do is do nothing.  Just sit back and watch.

In my view, and I suspect the view of a whole bunch of those swing voters in the States and Toronto the problem is too many people trying to do too many things all at the same time with no clear understanding of the effects of their actions.  Better to give them a timeout for a while, take them away from the controls and pray.  Maybe by the next election we will have a clearer picture of the underlying economy.

Too many of the world's "leader's" are following the headless chicken lesson plan:

When in trouble, when in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.
 
America's (and the world's) 'economy' will save itself; it always does. There will be necessary and, in some cases, uncomfortable corrections in all regions and in all sectors: Europe first; then America and finally Asia. The 'prize' is measured in jobs. Jobs are essential for general prosperity and social harmony. The 'best' jobs are both reasonably secure and well paying. In the first half of the 21st century the best jobs will be in sectors that require a well (not just adequately) educated and flexible workforce. These jobs are not 'location sensitive' they can just as easily be in Canada or China or Chile.

What governments can do is, in no particular order:

1. Make education work better - higher, much higher, standards in everything, not just maths and science. A creative society has a very, very strong arts and humanities base upon which its science and technology rests. Education must be affordable for most people - not necessarily 'free,' just affordable. Education is more than a right it is a civic duty.

2. Invest in R&D - government direct investments should be in Research: in chemistry, not chemical engineering; in biology, not bio-technology. Corporations should get tax breaks for investing in Development. Our universities are the 'jewel in the (educational) crown' and R&D is one of the ways good universities become great. R&D is cheap, but we, Canada, should spend invest orders of magnitude more than we do now in it.

3. Make continuous learning a reality - workers and managers should always be being trained for the next job, the next opportunity. Nowhere is this more important than in low level and middle managers - there are, broadly, too many of them because they are inadequately qualified. Fewer managers doing more/better work will make everyone more productive.

This will cost money. It should come, first of all, through reductions in most social spending, medical care and old age security excepted - for purely political reasons. Education should be the biggest and most important component of provincial spending, displacing medical care. That means that new (private) money must be injected into Canada's national health care system so that tax money can be diverted from medical care to education - where it will do more good. The next source 'of 'new' money is a tax: a carbon tax paid, à la the HST, by the end user - you and me - every time we fill our gas tanks, turn up the thermostat or watch our big-screen TV. Further 'new' money will, eventually, come from a growing economy.

For the USA, specifically, any new money for education and R&D can be found only after the national deficit is beaten down to zero and the national debt is reduced to something akin to 25% of GDP:

national-debt-gdp.gif

http://athensboy.wordpress.com/2009/08/30/prez-chills-keeps-change/

And I'm talking the real debt, not the unfunded liabilities.

By contrast, Canada's debt is estimated (in 2010) at about (below?) 30% of GDP - not great but close. But Canada's total public debt is, probably, closer to 75% of GDP and the USA's (and China's) is probably more like 90 to 110% of GDP, and growing too quickly.

 
Fortunately much of the so called stimulus hasnt been spent. A GOP Congress could do the country a big favor by sending that money back to the Treasury.
 
T6, I think there you have the answer to Thucydides's bureaucratic concerns.

Take a look at this article from the Telegraph. It discusses the fact that the UK will spend more money on the European Foreign Service than on the Foreign Office and thus the "best and brightest" (IMHO the most successful and thus highly credentialled gamers of the system) will leave UK service for EU service.  'Twas ever thus: the scribes follow the paymaster whether Pharaoh, Pope, King, Dictator or Labour Government.

In the US your constitution follows from the English "constitution" that presupposes the necessary evil of a governing King.  The King (The President) chooses his government, including all the senior bureaucrats and governs at his pleasure for the duration.  However Parliament (Commons and Lords, Representatives and Senators) controls the purse.  The King can have his scribes write all the regulations they like but if Parliament don't vote the cash there will be no coppers to enforce the regulations and possibly none to pay the scribes......How does a two year furlough sound?


ERC: I take your point on "Knowledge" - broadly described.  Could we frame it though in a discussion between knowledge and credentials?  I  believe (despite having had a specialist education myself) that all education should first and foremost be General - Back to the Liberal Arts - where  Newton's Calculus was equally weighted with  Darius's Highways and where Sonnets were equally weighted with Curie...

Credentials serve the needs of the scribes and Pharaoh.  It turns all levels of "education" into a glorified "Trades School" that encourages memorization of those things necessary to pass the test established by the guild of scribes to gain the credentials to gain the job to achieve a lifetime of security.  In the name of "quality control", in the interests of "public safety", it does nothing to teach people how to think and how to convert bright ideas into useful creations.

Neither James Watt nor Bill Gates were credentialled.  Although Watt's engines blew up and Gates systems crashed the benefits they gave society far outweighed the risks associated with their products hence their reputations were enhanced......Their customers took personal responsibility and accepted the risk of failure and placed a bet.  Tehy were willing to "Let the Deed Shaw". 

It is not just the need to improve opportunities for people to learn.  It is also necessary to break the power of the guilds of scribes.  (And the easiest way to do that is starve them out  >:D).


 
Just came back from an interesting and hilarious presentation by Mark Styen, who peppered the jokes and songs with many uncomfortable truths, some of which speak to the issues at hand:

Bureaucratic stasis. Regulatory overkill among other factors has reduced the rate of change and innovation. A person from the 1890's would be astonished by the technological advances in 1950, but equally stunned to see few fundamental changes between 1950 and 2010.

Enforced infantileization. People not leaving school until their late 20's, and not really being forced to take responsibility for their lives until fairly late in life. Obamacare is a wonderful example; "children" can stay on their parents health insurance until age 26(!).

Education: The generation which placed men on the moon had a median education of 8th grade, which means a much greater proportion of the work force was, you know, working starting at a much earlier age. Edward's point about education is well worth noting, but this means a real education, not "gender studies", and especially not being locked away in school until you are closing on 30. Perhaps we should encourage people to get out of high school, get a job/join the army/learn a trade and invest in continuing education/trades training as they gain life experience.

The Demographic recession. Banks were a conduit for people with capital (mostly older people who had saved and accumulated capital) to lend to people with ideas (generally younger people). While an oversimplification of sorts, the truth is that banks look for places to invest their money, and if there are no people close to home, they start going afield, to places they have less knowledge and understanding. German banks have about a trillion dollars of American mortgage "instruments", for example). Other demographic factors are also in play, fewer people raising families need fewer houses, leading to a glut in the housing market and huge drop in housing values.

If you believe any of these things (and don't forget, Mark Styen is the guy who characterized China's "one child" policy as leading to China becoming the "first gay superpower since Sparta", so there is some exaggeration for effect), then there are serious problems which are NOT going to be resolved by the election of a Republican Congress tomorrow, or any other day.
 
While repealing Obamacare might not be possible until 2013, there are steps the new Congress can take, read about it here

 
With regards to the above discussion on education, innovation, etc., I think there are a couple of themes which should be explored.

One - before we generalise university education, we should re-invigorate high schools. The idea that everyone has to pass has made a high school diploma virtually useless on its own forcing people to pay large tuitions at universities which are becoming overtaxed with the "demand" for education and increasingly run like corporate entities. Because of the emerge of private universities in the US, even a BA is, well, less useful than it could be south of the 49th. I happened to have the extreme good fortune of growing up in Quebec with the excellent CEGEP system, which made the secondary education quite useful.

Two - Commodification of knowledge. I agree completely that things are becoming way too focused on the idea of "credentials." This could be construed as a gross exaggeration of rationalist Fordism, because unpackaged knowledge is extremely difficult to judge and is therefore "inefficient." Higher education needs to get back to its roots, teaching people to do original research and judging people on the quality of what they produce.

Three - Leave universities to their own curricula. There is a strange tendency, most pronounced in the UK, for the government to apply less and less funding to universities while at the same time demanding tighter controls over curricula in order to ensure that credits are transferable. You won't always agree with what is produced, but in the end, it's probably for our benefit that someone sits and thinks and writes on complex problems (including, for example, women's studies) for long periods. Although continuing education is a good idea (and something I'd like to engage in,) it pays to have people in ivory towers.

Four - Let kids be kids. We need a cultural change away from the obsession with safety. It's stifling. And we also need to stop doping kids up on mind-altering drugs at the first sign of hyperacitivty. This will allow a greater range of experience.

An aside -

Although the world may not have seemed to change as drasitically between 1950 and 2010 as it did between 1890 and 1950, much of this has to do with viewpoints. The Industrial Revolution and the birth of mass capitalism in the late Victorian era exposed some very large cracks in Western culture - such as the generally bad state of the working class, the remnants of aristoratic privilege, problems created by racism, the "non-personhood" of women and the concentration of political and economic power. So while major projects may have seemed far more impressive earlier - culminating, say, in the launch of Apollo 11, other very important changes have taken place since then but are far less recognisable (like a general improvement in the standard of living, the end of segregation, aparhteid and empire, and the absence of a major inter-state war.)

 
The election results were even more compelling since the Republicans won many State legislatures and Governorships as well. Redistricting and State initiatives to derail Washington's "command economy" approach will be the order of the day for the next two years, and redistricting to undo gerrymandered districts will change the balance of power for decades to come.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/Republican-victory-was-wide-and-deep-1442653-106640883.html

Examiner Editorial: Republican victory was wide and deep
Examiner Editorial

November 3, 2010
Florida Sen.-elect Marco Rubio said of the Republicans’ congressional revival, “Tuesday’s election was not a mandate, it was a second chance.” (Katie King, The News Journal/AP)

Tuesday was a great day for Republicans, not just because they won a lot of new congressional seats. It was also about which seats they captured. To note just a few of the most prominent examples, grizzled Democratic incumbents such as Minnesota's Jim Oberstar, South Carolina's John Spratt, and Pennsylvania's Paul Kanjorski lost Tuesday after serving for decades in the House. These gains for Republicans are powerful examples of principled opposition trumping entrenched power and money, and they are encouraging.

But while the GOP's major congressional victories will deservedly be examined closely, serious attention ought also be paid to down-ballot results in the state contests. Republicans took control of at least 19 additional state legislative bodies Tuesday for a total of 26 in which the party controls both chambers, compared with 21 for Democrats and with three still up for grabs. Among these are legislatures in Alabama and North Carolina that had not seen elected Republican majorities since the Reconstruction elections of 1876 and 1870, respectively. Those that argued just two years ago the GOP was in danger of becoming a Southern regional party were proved resoundingly wrong as state legislative chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin and Minnesota flipped to GOP control. Republicans even made major inroads and could end up on top of legislative bodies in Oregon and Washington. Republicans won 16 of 30 races for state attorney general, taking five such offices away from Democrats, pulling within four of their opponents' total. The GOP also won 17 of 26 secretary of state races, a gain of six, giving the party a 25-22 edge (three states don't have such offices).

These developments have national implications, especially for redistricting. According to the Republican State Leadership Committee, Republicans now will play a role in redrawing the boundaries of a whopping 314 congressional districts. And lots of new Republicans in power in major swing states -- such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Colorado -- will undoubtedly help foster a favorable climate for the 2012 GOP presidential contender.

Perhaps the most important takeaway is that while the Tea Party started out as an anti-Washington movement, the outcome of Tuesday's local elections shows that the GOP grass roots is now serious about positive engagement in the political process. With large numbers of political neophytes filling the party's ranks, the GOP's bench of potential candidates could end up as deep as the Marianas Trench, dominating elections for a generation. But Republicans must not forget that, as Florida Sen.-elect Marco Rubio said, "Tuesday's election was not a mandate, it was a second chance." An enduring Republican revival will only happen if these new leaders remain steadfast to the principles of limited government, fiscal responsibility, and accountability and transparency that motivated voters to elect them.


Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/Republican-victory-was-wide-and-deep-1442653-106640883.html#ixzz14LFeOcnR
 
The greatest form of "command economy" in the US is massive, often superflous military spending fuelled by delegates looking for money in their home ridings. And who ballooned military spending? Republicans.
 
jhk87 said:
And who ballooned military spending? Republicans.

With the help of a Democrat congress. An example ?

C-17s that even the USAF did not want and were forced upon it by a Democrat-controlled congress. The cause of balooning spending resides with both parties.
 
jhk87 said:
The greatest form of "command economy" in the US is massive, often superflous military spending fuelled by delegates looking for money in their home ridings. And who ballooned military spending? Republicans.


Actually, post Second World War defence spending in the USA "ballooned" under Truman, a Democrat. Under Eisenhower and Nixon, both Republicans, it declined precipitously (Eisenhower) and then steadily (Nixon). Now I agree that defence spending did rise (possibly too quickly) under Reagan,* Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama - but that's three GOP and two Democrats, it hardly justifiers your broad brush.

__________
* But Reagan may have actually planned to simply force the USSR to either keep up and make the people eat grass or collapse under the inherent contradictions of socialism.
 
Another demographic "shift" bites the dust:

http://www.newgeography.com/content/001848-the-smackdown-of-the-creative-class

[/quote]
The Smackdown Of The Creative Class
by Joel Kotkin 11/03/2010
donkey.jpg

Two years ago I hailed Barack Obama’s election as “the triumph of the creative class.” Yesterday everything reversed, as middle-class Americans smacked down their putative new ruling class of highly educated urbanistas and college town denizens.

More than anything, this election marked a shift in American class dynamics. In 2008 President Obama managed to win enough middle-class, suburban voters to win an impressive victory. This year, those same voters deserted, rejecting policies more geared to the “creative class” than mainstream America.

A term coined by urban guru Richard Florida, “the creative class” also covers what David Brooks more cunningly calls “bourgeois bohemians"--socially liberal, well-educated, predominately white, upper middle-class voters. They are clustered largely in expensive urban centers, along the coasts, around universities and high-tech regions. To this base, Obama can add the welfare dependents, virtually all African-Americans, and the well-organized legions of public employees.

These are the groups for whom Obama's persona and policies pack the greatest appeal. Since Obama took office, the prime beneficiary of fiscal and monetary policies has been Wall Street, which has seen a nice 30% rise in the market and record bonuses. Large corporations, which are largely financed by stocks and bonds, have seen their profits soar over 40%, in part due to access to easy money.

The financial boomlet is most marked in key creative class strongholds such as Manhattan, Boston and San Francisco, as well as their surrounding, super-affluent suburbs. The largesse benefits not only the traders, but the high-priced lawyers, accountants and publicists serving the financial elite. It has also benefited the high-end consumer industry, including the arts, which support much of the creative class. Not surpisingly, the Democrats scored well in these areas last night despite the GOP tide.

The creative class also has benefited from the lavish expenditures of public funds to major universities for research. This has lifted the prospects of the professoriate at the elite colleges from which Obama takes much of his advice. Finally the administration has rewarded its friends and funders among Silicon Valley venture capitalists. Once self-described paragons of entrepreneurial risk-taking, they increasingly search out government incentives and subsidies to pay for their large bets on renewable energy technology.

In contrast, the traditional middle class has not fared well at all. This group consists of virtually everyone who earns the national household median income of $50,000 or somewhat above. They tend to be white, concentrated outside the coasts (except along the Gulf), suburban and politically independent. In 2008 they divided their votes, allowing Obama, with his huge urban, minority and youth base, to win easily.

Since Obama's inauguration all the economic statistics vital to their lives--job creation, family income, housing prices--have been stagnant or negative. Not surprising then that suburbanites, small businesspeople and middle-income workers walked out on the Democrats last night. They did not do so because they loved the Republicans but because the majority either fears unemployment or already have lost their jobs. Many were employed in the industries such as manufacturing and construction hardest hit in the recession; it has not escaped their attention that Obama’s public-sector allies, paid with their taxes, have remained not only largely unscathed, but much better compensated.

Of course, few on the progressive left--more expressive of a dictatorship of the professoriate than that of the proletariat--seem likely to confront these class realities. Many will ascribe last night's disaster to the dunderheadness of the American people, or to the clever venality of the right. Certainly some tea party candidates, inexperienced and untested, did appear incapable of passing a high school civics test. But the results had less to do with Karl Rove's money than the Democrats disconnect with the middle class.

The real problem for the Democrats lies with fundamental demographics. The middle class is a huge proportion of the population. Thirty-five million households earn between $50,000 and $100,000 a year; close to another 15 million have incomes between $100,000 and $150,000. Together these households overwhelm the number of poor households as well as the highly affluent.

In contrast, the "creative class" represents a relatively small grouping. Some define this group as upward of 40% of the workforce--largely by dint of having a four-year college degree--but this seems far too broad. The creative class is often seen as sharing the hip values of the Bobo crowd. Lumping an accountant with two kids in suburban Detroit or Atlanta with a childless SoHo graphic artist couple seems disingenuous at best. In reality the true creative class, notes demographer Bill Frey, may constitute no more than 5% of the total.

At the same time, this affluent constituency may be more than offset by another more traditional upper class. This consists of people closely tied to such basic sectors as agriculture, fossil fuel production, suburban home-builders and the aerospace industry. These voters have, for the most part, remained solidly Republican for generations, and but many followed the “creative class” into the Democratic Party in 2006 and 2008. Last night this part of the upper class shifted back toward their political home.

But the real decider--to use George W. Bush’s unfortunate phrase--remains the much larger, more amorphous middle class. Given the economy of the past two years, the subsequent alienation of this group should pose no mystery. Suburban swing voters didn’t suddenly turn into racists or right-wing cranks. Instead they have seen, correctly, that Obama's economic policy has to date worked to the advantage of others far more than themselves or their families. Until the Democrats and Obama can prove that they once again can serve the interests of these voters, they will continue to struggle to recapture the optimism so appropriate two years ago.

This article originally appeared at Forbes.com.

Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and is a distinguished presidential fellow in urban futures at Chapman University. He is author of The City: A Global History. His newest book is The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, released in February, 2010.
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New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has lashed out at the incoming US Congress according to this article (amongst others), reproduced under the Fair Dealing provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act from gothamist:

http://gothamist.com/2010/11/09/bloomberg_congress_can_read_but_the.php
Bloomberg: Okay, Congress Can Read, But They're Still Stupid

At the C40 conference in Hong Kong over the weekend, Mayor Bloomberg made a few controversial statements. First, he told Americans to stop blaming the Chinese and "take a look at ourselves," and then ranted, “If you look at the U.S., you look at who we’re electing to Congress, to the Senate—they can’t read. I’ll bet you a bunch of these people don’t have passports...nobody knows where China is." Foot, meet mouth. So yesterday, Bloomberg tried to clarify his point: "It isn't that I said they can't read in a sense they don't understand the words. They don't understand the history." Controversy over!

The increasingly peevish Bloomberg said he would continue to speak bluntly about the state of the country, and what he believes is a failure to tackle important issues. "I don't think that this country is facing the issues that really are the ones that we need to face if we are going to have a future," he said, mentioning the immigration system and the deficit. "We cannot continue to do this, and I will continue to speak out, and I think when I look at the efforts that the C40 countries are making, a lot of them are doing things we should be doing," he said.


He's right, of course, he's also an ex-Republican and no friend of the Tea Party. Bloomberg for president, as what? And independent? He's got bags of money, more brains than Obama and Palin combined and some actual, useful, executive experience. Hmmm.
 
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