- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 360
Unusual strain of flu from Mexico
- Thread starter a_majoor
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 360
More updates:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090510/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090510/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
Aerobicrunner
Member
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 160
Ref: http://vcds.dwan.dnd.ca/vcds-exec/pubs/canforgen/2009/085-09_e.asp
CANFORGEN 085/09 CDS 014/09 081253Z MAY 09
CF INFLUENZA FORCE PROTECTION MEASURES - MESSAGE 2
UNCLASSIFIED
REF. A : PLAN DE CONTINGENCE DES FC ET DU MDN POUR LES MESURES D
INTERVENTION EN CAS D UNE ECLOSION DE GRIPPE PANDEMIQUE, 30 JANVIER
2007
1. NOTE THAT THIS MESSAGE APPLIES ONLY TO CF PERSONNEL (REG F, CLASS B AND CLASS C RESERVE SERVICE)
2. GIVEN THE SITUATION EMERGING IN NORTH AMERICA WITH RESPECT TO INFLUENZA A (H1N1), THE CF HAS BEGUN INITIAL PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES INCLUDING IMPLEMENTING THE ALERT (PLANNING) PHASE OF REF A. THESE ACTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN INDICATOR OF ANY ANTICIPATED ESCALATION OF CONCERN BUT RATHER AS PRUDENT PREPARATION AIMED AT GUARANTEEING FORCE PROTECTION AND CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS SHOULD THE SITUATION WORSEN. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH CANADA ADVISE THAT THE NUMBER OF INCIDENTS MAY EITHER ESCALATE OR DECREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS
3. IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT ALL A(H1N1) INFLUENZA CASES WITHIN CANADA HAVE A NEXUS ORIGINATING EITHER IN MEXICO, OR FROM DIRECT CONTACT WITH SOMEONE WHO HAS RECENTLY RETURNED FROM MEXICO, PART OF THE CF S PRUDENT PRELIMINARY ACTION IS TO THEREFORE RESTRICT CF PERSONNEL (REG F, CLASS B AND CLASS C RESERVE SERVICE) FROM TRAVELLING TO MEXICO FOR NON-OPERATIONAL PURPOSES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, REF B REFERS
4. THE PURPOSE OF THIS DIRECTION IS TO ENABLE FORCE PROTECTION TO ALLOW THE SUSTAINMENT OF OPERATIONS AS WELL AS TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA (GOC) IN THEIR INFLUENZA MITIGATION AND RESPONSE EFFORTS
5. ALL CF MEMBERS RETURNING FROM MEXICO ARE TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED GUIDANCE WITHIN REF C
6. FOR THOSE CF MEMBERS WHO HAVE MADE TRAVEL PLANS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PRE-APPROVED LEAVE AND INCURRED INCREMENTAL EXPENSES, AN APPLICATION CAN BE MADE THROUGH THEIR CHAIN OF COMMAND FOR REIMBURSEMENT OF ANYFINANCIAL LOSSES THAT CAN NOT BE RECOVERED FROM THE TRAVEL ORGANIZATION (AIRLINE, HOTEL, TRAVEL AGENCY)
7. ALL COMMANDING OFFICERS ARE DIRECTED TO PROMULGATE THE ENCLOSED TRAVEL RESTRICTION MEASURES AND STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF PREVENTION AS THE BEST DEFENCE TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF DISEASE
8. THE CF HEALTH SERVICES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ITS VIGILANCE ON ALL SUSPECTED INFLUENZA CASES
9. YOU WILL BE ADVISED OF ANY FURTHER RELEVANT INFORMATION
CANFORGEN 085/09 CDS 014/09 081253Z MAY 09
CF INFLUENZA FORCE PROTECTION MEASURES - MESSAGE 2
UNCLASSIFIED
REF. A : PLAN DE CONTINGENCE DES FC ET DU MDN POUR LES MESURES D
INTERVENTION EN CAS D UNE ECLOSION DE GRIPPE PANDEMIQUE, 30 JANVIER
2007
1. NOTE THAT THIS MESSAGE APPLIES ONLY TO CF PERSONNEL (REG F, CLASS B AND CLASS C RESERVE SERVICE)
2. GIVEN THE SITUATION EMERGING IN NORTH AMERICA WITH RESPECT TO INFLUENZA A (H1N1), THE CF HAS BEGUN INITIAL PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES INCLUDING IMPLEMENTING THE ALERT (PLANNING) PHASE OF REF A. THESE ACTIONS SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS AN INDICATOR OF ANY ANTICIPATED ESCALATION OF CONCERN BUT RATHER AS PRUDENT PREPARATION AIMED AT GUARANTEEING FORCE PROTECTION AND CONTINUITY OF OPERATIONS SHOULD THE SITUATION WORSEN. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH CANADA ADVISE THAT THE NUMBER OF INCIDENTS MAY EITHER ESCALATE OR DECREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS
3. IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT ALL A(H1N1) INFLUENZA CASES WITHIN CANADA HAVE A NEXUS ORIGINATING EITHER IN MEXICO, OR FROM DIRECT CONTACT WITH SOMEONE WHO HAS RECENTLY RETURNED FROM MEXICO, PART OF THE CF S PRUDENT PRELIMINARY ACTION IS TO THEREFORE RESTRICT CF PERSONNEL (REG F, CLASS B AND CLASS C RESERVE SERVICE) FROM TRAVELLING TO MEXICO FOR NON-OPERATIONAL PURPOSES UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE, REF B REFERS
4. THE PURPOSE OF THIS DIRECTION IS TO ENABLE FORCE PROTECTION TO ALLOW THE SUSTAINMENT OF OPERATIONS AS WELL AS TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA (GOC) IN THEIR INFLUENZA MITIGATION AND RESPONSE EFFORTS
5. ALL CF MEMBERS RETURNING FROM MEXICO ARE TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED GUIDANCE WITHIN REF C
6. FOR THOSE CF MEMBERS WHO HAVE MADE TRAVEL PLANS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PRE-APPROVED LEAVE AND INCURRED INCREMENTAL EXPENSES, AN APPLICATION CAN BE MADE THROUGH THEIR CHAIN OF COMMAND FOR REIMBURSEMENT OF ANYFINANCIAL LOSSES THAT CAN NOT BE RECOVERED FROM THE TRAVEL ORGANIZATION (AIRLINE, HOTEL, TRAVEL AGENCY)
7. ALL COMMANDING OFFICERS ARE DIRECTED TO PROMULGATE THE ENCLOSED TRAVEL RESTRICTION MEASURES AND STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF PREVENTION AS THE BEST DEFENCE TO PREVENT THE SPREAD OF DISEASE
8. THE CF HEALTH SERVICES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ITS VIGILANCE ON ALL SUSPECTED INFLUENZA CASES
9. YOU WILL BE ADVISED OF ANY FURTHER RELEVANT INFORMATION
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 210
Military says it's prepared if swine flu strikes in Afghanistan
By Patrice Bergeron, THE CANADIAN PRESS
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - Canada's military says it will be prepared if swine flu strikes soldiers serving in Afghanistan.
Canadian military personnel have put in place testing procedures at the hospital inside the base at Kandahar Airfield.
"Part of our plan is to screen all incoming passengers into the area of responsibility here in Kandahar, so all of the personnel that we have are screened before they arrive," said Lt.-Col. Ron Wojtyk, a Canadian military surgeon and the head physician at the base's NATO hospital.
He said every new arrival is required to fill out a brief questionnaire.
The newcomers are asked if they have a cold, a fever or any muscle aches or pains. They are also asked if they have been to Mexico and if they have come into contact with anyone who has had an influenza-like illness.
"If they say 'Yes' to any of those then they have to see a medical person," Wojtyk said.
In the next few months, 21,000 American soldiers will be deployed in the Kandahar area where they will join more than 1,000 Canadian military personnel.
Around 70,000 foreign soldiers are serving across Afghanistan.
There have been no reported cases of swine flu in the country, which already faces a litany of public health problems.
The only known pig in Afghanistan, a predominantly Muslim country, was quarantined recently at a zoo in Kabul.
"From what I've seen, we're well prepared," said Wojtyk.
If a soldier shows symptoms of influenza, they will be given a test for a general flu.
"If the (general) test is positive, we treat it as if the person is suffering from swine flu, as a preventive measure, to keep the infection from spreading," said Wojtyk, adding that samples will be shipped to labs outside of Kandahar for analysis.
He also said the hospital has an adequate supply of medication to treat the flu if there is an outbreak.
Canadian military lawyer John McKee said the situation could become complicated because there are no laws outlining the responsibilities of NATO armies in the case of a pandemic.
"We've got a lot of new troops coming in now from various nations and what if some bring it?" McKee said.
"We have to look at what the laws are, we have to look at the laws in different nations, we have to look at ... security concerns.
"We think we've got the right answer and it works, but then one of the variables changes, and this is the interesting part of the game."
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2009/05/13/9448546-cp.html
By Patrice Bergeron, THE CANADIAN PRESS
KANDAHAR, Afghanistan - Canada's military says it will be prepared if swine flu strikes soldiers serving in Afghanistan.
Canadian military personnel have put in place testing procedures at the hospital inside the base at Kandahar Airfield.
"Part of our plan is to screen all incoming passengers into the area of responsibility here in Kandahar, so all of the personnel that we have are screened before they arrive," said Lt.-Col. Ron Wojtyk, a Canadian military surgeon and the head physician at the base's NATO hospital.
He said every new arrival is required to fill out a brief questionnaire.
The newcomers are asked if they have a cold, a fever or any muscle aches or pains. They are also asked if they have been to Mexico and if they have come into contact with anyone who has had an influenza-like illness.
"If they say 'Yes' to any of those then they have to see a medical person," Wojtyk said.
In the next few months, 21,000 American soldiers will be deployed in the Kandahar area where they will join more than 1,000 Canadian military personnel.
Around 70,000 foreign soldiers are serving across Afghanistan.
There have been no reported cases of swine flu in the country, which already faces a litany of public health problems.
The only known pig in Afghanistan, a predominantly Muslim country, was quarantined recently at a zoo in Kabul.
"From what I've seen, we're well prepared," said Wojtyk.
If a soldier shows symptoms of influenza, they will be given a test for a general flu.
"If the (general) test is positive, we treat it as if the person is suffering from swine flu, as a preventive measure, to keep the infection from spreading," said Wojtyk, adding that samples will be shipped to labs outside of Kandahar for analysis.
He also said the hospital has an adequate supply of medication to treat the flu if there is an outbreak.
Canadian military lawyer John McKee said the situation could become complicated because there are no laws outlining the responsibilities of NATO armies in the case of a pandemic.
"We've got a lot of new troops coming in now from various nations and what if some bring it?" McKee said.
"We have to look at what the laws are, we have to look at the laws in different nations, we have to look at ... security concerns.
"We think we've got the right answer and it works, but then one of the variables changes, and this is the interesting part of the game."
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2009/05/13/9448546-cp.html
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 360
Yikes.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090517/national/flu_summer_wave
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090517/national/flu_summer_wave
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
No Guidance on How to Rein In the Flu, NY Times
As schools shut down because of the flu — with a dozen closed in New York and hundreds in Texas and Japan
— health officials are asking a question for which there is little guidance, even in pandemic plans: what is
the best way to stop an epidemic that spreads mostly in schools rather than in nursing homes?
Many school officials have shut the doors and had the custodians disinfect the empty buildings.
But that leaves parents confused and frustrated. Those whose schools remain open may fear that their
children are in danger, and those with healthy children whose schools close may feel that officials have
overreacted, burdening them with day-care costs and denying their young ones an education.
Even guidance from the top is ambivalent.
On May 4, the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Richard E. Besser,
said “closing schools is not effective” at halting the spread. Previously, the centers had advised schools
to shut for up to two weeks if a confirmed case was found.
On Monday, New York City closed four more Queens schools after outbreaks of flu symptoms, bringing
the total to 16 ordered shut since last week. In Texas, hundreds have been closed at various times.
“There’s no right answer,” Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said at a news conference. “I’ve asked the question,
‘What would you do, Dr. Frieden, if you wanted to prevent the spread of flu around the entire student
population?’ And the answer is, ‘Closing the schools for a month, prohibit all interaction among kids outside
of school, and even then there’s no guarantee that you can do that.’ The bottom line is, case-by-case basis
is probably the right thing.”
(Mr. Bloomberg was referring to Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the city’s health commissioner, who has just been
nominated to be chief of the C.D.C.)
...
One thing is clear, infection control experts say: disinfecting closed schools is pointless. Flu viruses are
believed to live on objects for perhaps two to eight hours, so a week’s closing will kill them. But when
students return, if a few are sick, every cafeteria table, desk, lab beaker, doorknob, bathroom tap and
basketball will soon be recontaminated.
Washing schools “is done for looks,” said Michael Olesen, a Minnesota infection control specialist. “It’s not
a rational approach.”
The C.D.C.’s swine flu Web sitehas infection-control guidelines for many settings: hospitals, nursing homes,
day-care centers and even dialysis clinics. But it has nothing specific to the core of this outbreak: schools
full of teenagers. Teenagers, experts say, are different from the victims of seasonal influenza. The
bed-ridden, the very ill and infants can be forced to practice good hygiene, or isolated or sent home if
they won’t.
But teenagers resist tedious advice to wash their hands for 20 seconds, cover every cough with a tissue
or sleeve and stay away from other teenagers. If school is closed, they are likely to get together at the
park or the mall. Keeping sick students out of school is the most crucial step, said Dr. Yoko Furuya, an
infection control specialist at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia hospital. But that can be impractical. And
students can shed virus for a day before they are sick.
“I’d lean toward getting surgical masks on them and trying to get to the end of the school year,” said
Mr. Olesen, who is reluctant to see schools shut. “The masks capture all those droplets at the point of
release.”
And how, he was asked, could students be made to do that?
“I don’t know how, but they make them do other things,” he said.
Amy D. Nichols, chief of infection control for the University of California at San Francisco Medical Center,
said she would like to see “schools just as awash in alcohol hand rubs as hospitals are, so it’s easy and
quick to clean one’s hands.” Ms. Nichols favors making students disinfect their hands before entering each
class, the gym or the cafeteria.
“In junior high, you want to be like everyone else,” she said. “So schools should have wall-mounted push
dispensers. That way it becomes part of the culture of the schools. The more people push the handle, the
more everybody else does.” She also favors cleaning surfaces as often as is practical, because other risks
like antibiotic-resistant bacteria persist longer than flu.
What to do with sick students whose working parents cannot afford babysitters is another problem. Asked
if schools could set up cots in a gym for ill students, Mr. Olesen demurred. “I don’t know,” he said. “Cots
for kids in puberty with their hormones raging? That’s a whole other public health problem.”
Even if schools make it to summer break, hot weather may slow, but not solve the problem, the C.D.C. said
Monday. “We’d love to see a decrease in cases, but in the past there have been outbreaks of seasonal
influenza even in summer camps,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, the agency’s interim deputy director for public
health.
Confirming anecdotal observations that this flu concentrates in young people, Dr. Schuchat said preliminary
studies of family transmission showed that when one member gets infected, the most likely to follow are
those under 18, not parents or grandparents. .
In Geneva, swine flu topped the agenda of the annual assembly of world’s health ministers. Britain, Japan and
other countries with many cases argued that World Health Organization pandemic alerts should measure a
virus’s severity, not just its spread. Dr. Margaret Chan, the health organization’s director-general, said she
would consider keeping the alert level at 5, and warned that the virus’s initial mildness had “handed the world
a grace period.”
“I strongly urge you to look closely at anything and everything we can do, collectively, to protect developing
countries from once again bearing the brunt of a global contagion,” Dr. Chan said.
Reporting was contributed by Anemona Hartocollis, David Chen and Sharon Otterman.
As schools shut down because of the flu — with a dozen closed in New York and hundreds in Texas and Japan
— health officials are asking a question for which there is little guidance, even in pandemic plans: what is
the best way to stop an epidemic that spreads mostly in schools rather than in nursing homes?
Many school officials have shut the doors and had the custodians disinfect the empty buildings.
But that leaves parents confused and frustrated. Those whose schools remain open may fear that their
children are in danger, and those with healthy children whose schools close may feel that officials have
overreacted, burdening them with day-care costs and denying their young ones an education.
Even guidance from the top is ambivalent.
On May 4, the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Richard E. Besser,
said “closing schools is not effective” at halting the spread. Previously, the centers had advised schools
to shut for up to two weeks if a confirmed case was found.
On Monday, New York City closed four more Queens schools after outbreaks of flu symptoms, bringing
the total to 16 ordered shut since last week. In Texas, hundreds have been closed at various times.
“There’s no right answer,” Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said at a news conference. “I’ve asked the question,
‘What would you do, Dr. Frieden, if you wanted to prevent the spread of flu around the entire student
population?’ And the answer is, ‘Closing the schools for a month, prohibit all interaction among kids outside
of school, and even then there’s no guarantee that you can do that.’ The bottom line is, case-by-case basis
is probably the right thing.”
(Mr. Bloomberg was referring to Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the city’s health commissioner, who has just been
nominated to be chief of the C.D.C.)
...
One thing is clear, infection control experts say: disinfecting closed schools is pointless. Flu viruses are
believed to live on objects for perhaps two to eight hours, so a week’s closing will kill them. But when
students return, if a few are sick, every cafeteria table, desk, lab beaker, doorknob, bathroom tap and
basketball will soon be recontaminated.
Washing schools “is done for looks,” said Michael Olesen, a Minnesota infection control specialist. “It’s not
a rational approach.”
The C.D.C.’s swine flu Web sitehas infection-control guidelines for many settings: hospitals, nursing homes,
day-care centers and even dialysis clinics. But it has nothing specific to the core of this outbreak: schools
full of teenagers. Teenagers, experts say, are different from the victims of seasonal influenza. The
bed-ridden, the very ill and infants can be forced to practice good hygiene, or isolated or sent home if
they won’t.
But teenagers resist tedious advice to wash their hands for 20 seconds, cover every cough with a tissue
or sleeve and stay away from other teenagers. If school is closed, they are likely to get together at the
park or the mall. Keeping sick students out of school is the most crucial step, said Dr. Yoko Furuya, an
infection control specialist at NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia hospital. But that can be impractical. And
students can shed virus for a day before they are sick.
“I’d lean toward getting surgical masks on them and trying to get to the end of the school year,” said
Mr. Olesen, who is reluctant to see schools shut. “The masks capture all those droplets at the point of
release.”
And how, he was asked, could students be made to do that?
“I don’t know how, but they make them do other things,” he said.
Amy D. Nichols, chief of infection control for the University of California at San Francisco Medical Center,
said she would like to see “schools just as awash in alcohol hand rubs as hospitals are, so it’s easy and
quick to clean one’s hands.” Ms. Nichols favors making students disinfect their hands before entering each
class, the gym or the cafeteria.
“In junior high, you want to be like everyone else,” she said. “So schools should have wall-mounted push
dispensers. That way it becomes part of the culture of the schools. The more people push the handle, the
more everybody else does.” She also favors cleaning surfaces as often as is practical, because other risks
like antibiotic-resistant bacteria persist longer than flu.
What to do with sick students whose working parents cannot afford babysitters is another problem. Asked
if schools could set up cots in a gym for ill students, Mr. Olesen demurred. “I don’t know,” he said. “Cots
for kids in puberty with their hormones raging? That’s a whole other public health problem.”
Even if schools make it to summer break, hot weather may slow, but not solve the problem, the C.D.C. said
Monday. “We’d love to see a decrease in cases, but in the past there have been outbreaks of seasonal
influenza even in summer camps,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, the agency’s interim deputy director for public
health.
Confirming anecdotal observations that this flu concentrates in young people, Dr. Schuchat said preliminary
studies of family transmission showed that when one member gets infected, the most likely to follow are
those under 18, not parents or grandparents. .
In Geneva, swine flu topped the agenda of the annual assembly of world’s health ministers. Britain, Japan and
other countries with many cases argued that World Health Organization pandemic alerts should measure a
virus’s severity, not just its spread. Dr. Margaret Chan, the health organization’s director-general, said she
would consider keeping the alert level at 5, and warned that the virus’s initial mildness had “handed the world
a grace period.”
“I strongly urge you to look closely at anything and everything we can do, collectively, to protect developing
countries from once again bearing the brunt of a global contagion,” Dr. Chan said.
Reporting was contributed by Anemona Hartocollis, David Chen and Sharon Otterman.
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
Mexico City lifts swine flu curbs, Friday, 22 May 2009 05:13 UK
Businesses in Mexico City have been
hit hard by the flu outbreak
Mexico City has lifted all restrictions imposed last month, following an outbreak
of swine flu across Mexico. Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said no new infections had been
reported for a week in the capital and there was no longer a need to wear mask
in public places.
The city virtually ground to a halt at the height of the flu emergency, with schools,
bars and cinemas closed. Mexico's flu death toll rose by three to 78 on Thursday,
officials said. Some 4,000 people have been infected.
Mayor's plea
Authorities in the sprawling capital on Thursday lowered its four-level alert system
from "yellow" to "green" - the lowest level.
"We can calm down now," Mayor Ebrard said. "Now you can come to the city without
any risk," he said, adding that there was "no longer any need" to wear masks in public
places. However, the mayor urged residents of the city to remain.
The World Health Organization said on Thursday that 41 countries had reported 11,034
cases of swine flu , or influenza A (H1N1) infection, including 85 deaths. The world
remains at the second-highest flu alert level, which means an "imminent pandemic".
Businesses in Mexico City have been
hit hard by the flu outbreak
Mexico City has lifted all restrictions imposed last month, following an outbreak
of swine flu across Mexico. Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said no new infections had been
reported for a week in the capital and there was no longer a need to wear mask
in public places.
The city virtually ground to a halt at the height of the flu emergency, with schools,
bars and cinemas closed. Mexico's flu death toll rose by three to 78 on Thursday,
officials said. Some 4,000 people have been infected.
Mayor's plea
Authorities in the sprawling capital on Thursday lowered its four-level alert system
from "yellow" to "green" - the lowest level.
"We can calm down now," Mayor Ebrard said. "Now you can come to the city without
any risk," he said, adding that there was "no longer any need" to wear masks in public
places. However, the mayor urged residents of the city to remain.
The World Health Organization said on Thursday that 41 countries had reported 11,034
cases of swine flu , or influenza A (H1N1) infection, including 85 deaths. The world
remains at the second-highest flu alert level, which means an "imminent pandemic".
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
Spread of Swine Flu Puts Japan in Crisis Mode, May 21, 2009
Models’ Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin
In the waning days of April, as federal officials were declaring a public health emergency and the world
seemed gripped by swine flu panic, two rival supercomputer teams made projections about the epidemic
that were surprisingly similar — and surprisingly reassuring. By the end of May, they said, there would
be only 2,000 to 2,500 cases in the United States.
May’s over. They were a bit off.
On May 15, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that there were “upwards of 100,000”
cases in the country, even though only 7,415 had been confirmed at that point.
The agency declines to update that estimate just yet. But Tim Germann, a computational scientist who
worked on a 2006 flu forecast model at Los Alamos National Laboratory, said he imagined there were
now “a few hundred thousand” cases. (At their peaks, epidemics are thought to double in as little as
three days, which could drive the number into the millions, but Dr. Germann said he would not use
such a rapid doubling rate unless it was a cold November and no countermeasures, like closing
schools, were being taken.)
What went wrong?
The leaders of both the Northwestern University and Indiana University teams seemed a bit abashed
when they were asked that last week. Northwestern’s predictions got the most publicity because of
the eye-catching metric for predicting spread: data from Where’s George?, a Web site that tracks
millions of dollar bills as they move around the country.
Dirk Brockmann, the engineering professor who led the team, said the realization that his initial
estimates had been far too low struck him on May 11, when British, Mexican and World Health
Organization researchers published a study in the journal Science tracing the first days of the
outbreak. They estimated that it had begun in rural La Gloria, Mexico, in mid-February and
that by April 30 there were 6,000 to 32,000 infections throughout Mexico.
“The numbers of reported cases in Mexico that we plugged in at the beginning of our model were
orders of magnitude lower,” Dr. Brockmann said. He is still proud, he said, of how well his model
predicted geographical spread in the United States. He had to adjust it for the unexpected infusion
of cases stemming from students at St. Francis Preparatory School in New York City who brought
the virus back from spring break in Cancún, but otherwise it was accurate in predicting that
California, Texas, Illinois and Florida would be hot spots.
Alessandro Vespignani, the informatics professor who led Indiana’s team, was a little more defensive,
suggesting that he was either misquoted or had misunderstood the question on May 2 when he was
reported as estimating that there would be about 2,500 cases by month’s end. His first model
predicted 9,500 cases by May 24, he said.
Dr. Vespignani said he felt the C.D.C. estimate of 100,000 or more was “a bit of an overshooting.”
However, he pointed out, his adjustment of his figures on May 17 had an upper estimate of 100,000
for the end of May, and if one assumed that the disease centers counted asymptomatic cases and
he did not, then that could stretch to 150,000.
Decisions by the C.D.C. and state health departments to stop confirming most cases in laboratories
“is making our life miserable,” he said, adding, “If you don’t have good data, you don’t make good
predictions.”
Both professors said they would use the experience to refine their models for the future. Dr. Brockman
has not updated his since May 9. “For this disease, we won’t put out another projection,” he said. “Once
it’s in the dispersal phase, exponential growth kicks in. You don’t need a sophisticated model anymore.”
Models’ Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin
In the waning days of April, as federal officials were declaring a public health emergency and the world
seemed gripped by swine flu panic, two rival supercomputer teams made projections about the epidemic
that were surprisingly similar — and surprisingly reassuring. By the end of May, they said, there would
be only 2,000 to 2,500 cases in the United States.
May’s over. They were a bit off.
On May 15, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that there were “upwards of 100,000”
cases in the country, even though only 7,415 had been confirmed at that point.
The agency declines to update that estimate just yet. But Tim Germann, a computational scientist who
worked on a 2006 flu forecast model at Los Alamos National Laboratory, said he imagined there were
now “a few hundred thousand” cases. (At their peaks, epidemics are thought to double in as little as
three days, which could drive the number into the millions, but Dr. Germann said he would not use
such a rapid doubling rate unless it was a cold November and no countermeasures, like closing
schools, were being taken.)
What went wrong?
The leaders of both the Northwestern University and Indiana University teams seemed a bit abashed
when they were asked that last week. Northwestern’s predictions got the most publicity because of
the eye-catching metric for predicting spread: data from Where’s George?, a Web site that tracks
millions of dollar bills as they move around the country.
Dirk Brockmann, the engineering professor who led the team, said the realization that his initial
estimates had been far too low struck him on May 11, when British, Mexican and World Health
Organization researchers published a study in the journal Science tracing the first days of the
outbreak. They estimated that it had begun in rural La Gloria, Mexico, in mid-February and
that by April 30 there were 6,000 to 32,000 infections throughout Mexico.
“The numbers of reported cases in Mexico that we plugged in at the beginning of our model were
orders of magnitude lower,” Dr. Brockmann said. He is still proud, he said, of how well his model
predicted geographical spread in the United States. He had to adjust it for the unexpected infusion
of cases stemming from students at St. Francis Preparatory School in New York City who brought
the virus back from spring break in Cancún, but otherwise it was accurate in predicting that
California, Texas, Illinois and Florida would be hot spots.
Alessandro Vespignani, the informatics professor who led Indiana’s team, was a little more defensive,
suggesting that he was either misquoted or had misunderstood the question on May 2 when he was
reported as estimating that there would be about 2,500 cases by month’s end. His first model
predicted 9,500 cases by May 24, he said.
Dr. Vespignani said he felt the C.D.C. estimate of 100,000 or more was “a bit of an overshooting.”
However, he pointed out, his adjustment of his figures on May 17 had an upper estimate of 100,000
for the end of May, and if one assumed that the disease centers counted asymptomatic cases and
he did not, then that could stretch to 150,000.
Decisions by the C.D.C. and state health departments to stop confirming most cases in laboratories
“is making our life miserable,” he said, adding, “If you don’t have good data, you don’t make good
predictions.”
Both professors said they would use the experience to refine their models for the future. Dr. Brockman
has not updated his since May 9. “For this disease, we won’t put out another projection,” he said. “Once
it’s in the dispersal phase, exponential growth kicks in. You don’t need a sophisticated model anymore.”
- Reaction score
- 15
- Points
- 430
WHO: Swine flu 'very close' to pandemic
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 360
And it's official, according to the WHO- swine flu is now a global pandemic.
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/11/s...o-pandemic.html
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/06/11/s...o-pandemic.html
- Reaction score
- 0
- Points
- 360
A Swine Flu Vaccine this soon?
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
PMedMoe said:
I think a lot of people are more nervous that they should be from what
the pandemic is so far. They probably don't know that the graduation from
the WHO to 6 isn't relate to how much you're gettng sick from that flu,
but to how many people have it officially.
"The World Health Organization recently declared a pandemic following a
sharp increase in the number of cases in Australia."
article on the spead of it in England :
'Unpredictable' swine flu spreads
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
Flu hits Canada's native peoples
It is unclear why swine flu rates are
higher in Inuit communities
Canada is investigating whether Inuit communities may be particularly badly hit by swine flu,
health officials say.
The World Health Organization thinks there are more cases than expected among young people
in the aboriginal population living in northern Canada. Recent days have seen a spike in H1N1
flu among the Inuit and the country's isolated indigenous communities. The swine flu virus can
have more serious effects on people living in poverty, the WHO says.
Of fewer than 100 people infected in Nunavut, the vast Arctic homeland of Inuits, 10 were
admitted to hospital. In Manitoba province, 16 of the 24 people in intensive care because
of swine flu are from native communities.
The BBC's Lee Carter in Toronto says there are no clear reasons why swine flu rates are higher
in Canada's indigenous communities. But poverty, substandard, overcrowded housing and
underlying health problems are thought to be the most likely culprits, he says.
Canada's federal health minister, Leona Aglukkaq, who is herself Inuit, said additional personnel
and supplies have been sent to the Inuit communities. "This is a concern and we are investigating,"
she said. "We must resist speculation, rely on the science and report only on confirmed cases."
Four people have died from swine flu in Canada though most of the 2,978 confirmed cases have
been mild.
It is unclear why swine flu rates are
higher in Inuit communities
Canada is investigating whether Inuit communities may be particularly badly hit by swine flu,
health officials say.
The World Health Organization thinks there are more cases than expected among young people
in the aboriginal population living in northern Canada. Recent days have seen a spike in H1N1
flu among the Inuit and the country's isolated indigenous communities. The swine flu virus can
have more serious effects on people living in poverty, the WHO says.
Of fewer than 100 people infected in Nunavut, the vast Arctic homeland of Inuits, 10 were
admitted to hospital. In Manitoba province, 16 of the 24 people in intensive care because
of swine flu are from native communities.
The BBC's Lee Carter in Toronto says there are no clear reasons why swine flu rates are higher
in Canada's indigenous communities. But poverty, substandard, overcrowded housing and
underlying health problems are thought to be the most likely culprits, he says.
Canada's federal health minister, Leona Aglukkaq, who is herself Inuit, said additional personnel
and supplies have been sent to the Inuit communities. "This is a concern and we are investigating,"
she said. "We must resist speculation, rely on the science and report only on confirmed cases."
Four people have died from swine flu in Canada though most of the 2,978 confirmed cases have
been mild.
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
Flu outbreak on reserves exposes system flaws, CTV.ca News Staff
With the world now officially facing a flu pandemic, the deplorable situation in the country's northern native
reserves is exposing flaws in the country's pandemic preparedness plan. In northern Manitoba, many
communities are struggling with a severe flu outbreak. Across the province, 24 people with flu symptoms
are breathing with ventilators and two-thirds of them are aboriginal.
In the past week, 11 residents of the Garden Hill First Nation alone have been airlifted to hospitals back
in the city, most with severe flu symptoms. Garden Hill Chief David Harper says the equipment at the
nursing station on his reserve is old or broken and nurses don't have the support of a full medical team
as they would have in an urban clinic.
Phil Fontaine, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, says one cluster of northern Manitoba reserves
is home to about 10,000 people and doesn't have a single hospital.
Health Canada has put out a tender for nurses to work in 24 isolated reserves but says it's struggling to find
enough nurses to keep medical stations in northern Manitoba open. "Health Canada is having great difficulty
recruiting and retaining employed nurses in the nursing stations and two federal hospitals located in northern
Manitoba on reserves," the tender states. "Without adequate service, the nursing stations and hospitals may
have to close for periods of time which could result in severe medical liability."
Public health officials are saying that while Canada's pandemic preparedness plan includes specific protocols
for First Nations communities, there's been no money attached to it. In Garden Hill, Harper says the band
has already spent $2,900 so it can go and buy its own pandemic supplies, such as masks - supplies that the
federal government was supposed to provide.
Jim Wolfe, the regional director for Health Canada's aboriginal branch, says the government is working
closely with the province and aboriginal leaders to address the issue. Manitoba's chief public health officer,
Dr. Joel Kettner, says the response to swine flu has not been perfect, but has been better than in previous
disease outbreaks.
The virus's spread among Canada's aboriginals caught the attention of the World Health Organization earlier
this week, though the agency also noted that disease can take a harsher toll on people facing poverty,
substandard housing and underlying health problems.
Canadian officials say there is no evidence to support suggestions the virus's impact varies between ethnic
groups. "To make conclusions based on a couple of communities that this is somehow a disease that is
worse in a particular ethnic group -- it's much too early to make any of those kinds of conclusions or
presumptions," Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer, said at a news conference
Thursday. "We may find that in the future, but at the moment, evidence is it doesn't matter who you are;
everyone is susceptible," said Butler-Jones.
While the situation in northern native communities is severe, for the rest of Canada, the virus has not been
causing much serious illness. Canada has had 2,978 confirmed cases of the H1N1 flu, and about five per cent
of those have required hospitalization for treatment. While there have been four deaths from the strain, all
of the victims were suffering other health problems.
Infectious disease expert Neil Rau says he believe that many more Canadians have gotten the virus than what
the officials numbers indicate. "The serious cases are only the tip of the iceberg. The rest of people who have
this virus get mild disease or don't even go to the doctor," he told Canada AM Friday. "Granted there have
been some cases of otherwise healthy people getting it and that's what drew the initial alarm. But in Mexico,
perhaps millions of people had seen this virus before those deaths were described."
Canada's health minister says the Thursday's decision by the WHO to declare H1N1 a flu pandemic will do
little to change Canada's response. "I want to reassure Canada... we were prepared for this decision and
this decision does not change our approach in Canada," Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said at a Thursday
afternoon news conference. "It is primarily a technical decision (by the WHO)," Aglukkaq said. "Thankfully,
the vast majority of illnesses remain mild."
Canada's chief public health officer said the WHO move was "based on the spread of the virus, not the
severity noting that within Canada, "the virus continues to behave like the seasonal flu." "We will continue
to tailor our domestic responses and public health measure to our own situation and to the evolving needs
of Canadians," Butler-Jones said Thursday. Rau says he believe that even globally, nothing has changed,
and the WHO's decision was a technical one based on geographic spread alone.
"The virus has not changed since we've been observing this story. What has changed is the geographic
spread," he said. "Spread alone is not cause for alarm. It's if you have a virulent or serious virus that
is also spreading." "So I'm not sure that I'm more excited about this than seasonal flu. Every year,
seasonal flu also spreads all over the world and we don't call it a pandemic because it would get to be
a kind of a tiring story. So I hope we're dealing with something a little different here, but it's not playing
itself out to be that different so far."
H1N1 has been reported in 74 countries, has caused 145 confirmed deaths and almost 30,000 cases
of illnesses.
With the world now officially facing a flu pandemic, the deplorable situation in the country's northern native
reserves is exposing flaws in the country's pandemic preparedness plan. In northern Manitoba, many
communities are struggling with a severe flu outbreak. Across the province, 24 people with flu symptoms
are breathing with ventilators and two-thirds of them are aboriginal.
In the past week, 11 residents of the Garden Hill First Nation alone have been airlifted to hospitals back
in the city, most with severe flu symptoms. Garden Hill Chief David Harper says the equipment at the
nursing station on his reserve is old or broken and nurses don't have the support of a full medical team
as they would have in an urban clinic.
Phil Fontaine, national chief of the Assembly of First Nations, says one cluster of northern Manitoba reserves
is home to about 10,000 people and doesn't have a single hospital.
Health Canada has put out a tender for nurses to work in 24 isolated reserves but says it's struggling to find
enough nurses to keep medical stations in northern Manitoba open. "Health Canada is having great difficulty
recruiting and retaining employed nurses in the nursing stations and two federal hospitals located in northern
Manitoba on reserves," the tender states. "Without adequate service, the nursing stations and hospitals may
have to close for periods of time which could result in severe medical liability."
Public health officials are saying that while Canada's pandemic preparedness plan includes specific protocols
for First Nations communities, there's been no money attached to it. In Garden Hill, Harper says the band
has already spent $2,900 so it can go and buy its own pandemic supplies, such as masks - supplies that the
federal government was supposed to provide.
Jim Wolfe, the regional director for Health Canada's aboriginal branch, says the government is working
closely with the province and aboriginal leaders to address the issue. Manitoba's chief public health officer,
Dr. Joel Kettner, says the response to swine flu has not been perfect, but has been better than in previous
disease outbreaks.
The virus's spread among Canada's aboriginals caught the attention of the World Health Organization earlier
this week, though the agency also noted that disease can take a harsher toll on people facing poverty,
substandard housing and underlying health problems.
Canadian officials say there is no evidence to support suggestions the virus's impact varies between ethnic
groups. "To make conclusions based on a couple of communities that this is somehow a disease that is
worse in a particular ethnic group -- it's much too early to make any of those kinds of conclusions or
presumptions," Dr. David Butler-Jones, Canada's chief public health officer, said at a news conference
Thursday. "We may find that in the future, but at the moment, evidence is it doesn't matter who you are;
everyone is susceptible," said Butler-Jones.
While the situation in northern native communities is severe, for the rest of Canada, the virus has not been
causing much serious illness. Canada has had 2,978 confirmed cases of the H1N1 flu, and about five per cent
of those have required hospitalization for treatment. While there have been four deaths from the strain, all
of the victims were suffering other health problems.
Infectious disease expert Neil Rau says he believe that many more Canadians have gotten the virus than what
the officials numbers indicate. "The serious cases are only the tip of the iceberg. The rest of people who have
this virus get mild disease or don't even go to the doctor," he told Canada AM Friday. "Granted there have
been some cases of otherwise healthy people getting it and that's what drew the initial alarm. But in Mexico,
perhaps millions of people had seen this virus before those deaths were described."
Canada's health minister says the Thursday's decision by the WHO to declare H1N1 a flu pandemic will do
little to change Canada's response. "I want to reassure Canada... we were prepared for this decision and
this decision does not change our approach in Canada," Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said at a Thursday
afternoon news conference. "It is primarily a technical decision (by the WHO)," Aglukkaq said. "Thankfully,
the vast majority of illnesses remain mild."
Canada's chief public health officer said the WHO move was "based on the spread of the virus, not the
severity noting that within Canada, "the virus continues to behave like the seasonal flu." "We will continue
to tailor our domestic responses and public health measure to our own situation and to the evolving needs
of Canadians," Butler-Jones said Thursday. Rau says he believe that even globally, nothing has changed,
and the WHO's decision was a technical one based on geographic spread alone.
"The virus has not changed since we've been observing this story. What has changed is the geographic
spread," he said. "Spread alone is not cause for alarm. It's if you have a virulent or serious virus that
is also spreading." "So I'm not sure that I'm more excited about this than seasonal flu. Every year,
seasonal flu also spreads all over the world and we don't call it a pandemic because it would get to be
a kind of a tiring story. So I hope we're dealing with something a little different here, but it's not playing
itself out to be that different so far."
H1N1 has been reported in 74 countries, has caused 145 confirmed deaths and almost 30,000 cases
of illnesses.
Yrys
Army.ca Veteran
- Reaction score
- 17
- Points
- 430
China produces first A/H1N1 flu vaccines, to hit market in September, People's Daily
China's first batch of A/H1N1 flu vaccines were produced by a pharmaceutical
firm Monday. The vaccines are expected to hit the market in September after
safety tests in labs and clinical tests, said Hualan Biological Engineering Inc.
The company received the seed virus from a World Health Organization (WHO)
lab on June 4.
Source: Xinhua
Isn't a month not enough time to produce a vaccine ?!?
China's first batch of A/H1N1 flu vaccines were produced by a pharmaceutical
firm Monday. The vaccines are expected to hit the market in September after
safety tests in labs and clinical tests, said Hualan Biological Engineering Inc.
The company received the seed virus from a World Health Organization (WHO)
lab on June 4.
Source: Xinhua
Isn't a month not enough time to produce a vaccine ?!?
- Reaction score
- 1,407
- Points
- 940
Yrys said:
A month may seem like a short time, but companies have been making regular flu vaccines for years now. This one would be very specific but they have the virus already so no guessing.
Besides, China was slow compared to Switzerland:
First batch of swine flu vaccine produced
W, the Swiss were swift!
- Reaction score
- 1,407
- Points
- 940
Air traffic patterns used to predict H1N1 spread
Article Link
Physicians at Toronto's St. Michael's Hospital say that by quickly evaluating air traffic patterns around the world, they can predict how the virus will spread globally.
Dr. Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician at St. Michael's, and colleagues analyzed flight itineraries of more than 2.3 million passengers who departed Mexico on commercial flights in March and April.
The research team found that countries that received more travellers from Mexico were more likely to import cases of the H1N1 flu virus.
As well, the cities that received the largest number of travellers from Mexico were more likely to have imported H1N1 flu cases.
The researchers found that welcoming 1,400 travellers from Mexico put a country at high risk of imported cases of the virus.
"It's intuitive that where people are travelling, infectious diseases are likely to follow in tandem," Khan told CTV Toronto on Monday.
More on link
Article Link
Physicians at Toronto's St. Michael's Hospital say that by quickly evaluating air traffic patterns around the world, they can predict how the virus will spread globally.
Dr. Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician at St. Michael's, and colleagues analyzed flight itineraries of more than 2.3 million passengers who departed Mexico on commercial flights in March and April.
The research team found that countries that received more travellers from Mexico were more likely to import cases of the H1N1 flu virus.
As well, the cities that received the largest number of travellers from Mexico were more likely to have imported H1N1 flu cases.
The researchers found that welcoming 1,400 travellers from Mexico put a country at high risk of imported cases of the virus.
"It's intuitive that where people are travelling, infectious diseases are likely to follow in tandem," Khan told CTV Toronto on Monday.
More on link
Similar threads
