- Reaction score
- 3
- Points
- 410
As promised earlier, here is a brief update on the situation:
OVERALL: We are now into the fifth day after the Presidential Election on 09 Oct, which had been anticipated as a Decisive Point for the campaign here (both for Enemy and for Own Troops) The operational situations in both CJTF76 and ISAF's AOOs have remained surprisingly calm, with only a few isolated and ineffective incidents. Voting, including extended voting hours on the 10th due to bad weather in some provinces, was successfully completed throughout the country and at the in absentia locations such as Iran and Pakistan. A high percentage of Afghans (including women) were able to vote-their turnout was impressive despite very bad weather and a high risk of death/injury. (Puts Canadian voters to shame....) Commencing on the 10th, balllot collection began and has now been almost totally completed, again without any major incidents. Counting of ballots is on hold until the investigation team can complete its inquiry into allegations of improper procedures (wrong ink, mishandling of boxes,etc). While the Joint Election Management Board has admitted that there were some failures, the general opinion of international observers is that it was a mostly free and fair election. The failures seem to have been localized and likely will not have a significant effect, although this has yet to be confirmed. Although the 15 candidates running against Hamid Kharzai initially withdrew at the first report of election fraud, the three most important competitors have come back on board in the last two days (the others probably had zero chance of winning and they realized it...).
ENEMY: The various opposing forces (Taleban, HiG and AQ) conducted a campaign of attacks against Coalition, Afghan Govt, ISAF and civil targets during the days leading up to the election. Their activities accelerated during the 7-9 Oct, increasing to about 20-30 incidents/day, then dropped suddenly on 10 Oct. Despite the number of attacks, the enemy's efforts were surprisingly ineffective and friendly casualties/damage were very light. The nightmare scenarios envisioned for E-Day never materialized, although discoveries such as a 10,000 litre gasoline truck rigged as a VBIED and destined for Kandahar city give some indication of what was intended. Many of the attacks were incompetently executed, sometimes without much conviction, and point to an apparent absence of skill and leadership. A number of attacks were pre-empted by friendly forces, and in a few cases the bombers blew themselves up,apparently by mistake, since there was no useful effect. The combined effects of the Pakistani Army offensive with the CJTF76 offensive ops in the AF-PAK border region may have caught the enemy's base areas in a "hammer and anvil" effect, although this remains to be seen. The current AQ terrorist actions in Pakistan may be a reflection of the pressure they are feeling. Opinions on the reason for the current"pause" by the enemy vary, but it cannot be dismissed that he is regrouping and reorganizing, analyzing the results of his recent efforts, and planning the next stage. He is not gone, as shown by an IED attack on a convoy today in the SOUTH which is reported to have caused casualties.
FRIENDLY FORCES: The Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) are assessed as having acquitted themselves very well and were a vital part of the election security operations. OEF (CJTF76) forces conducted successful offensive operations in the SOUTH and SOUTHEAST, uncovering large numbers of caches, capturing a number of the enemy, wounding and killing others while suffering very light casualties. At the same time they conducted election security ops as well as various SF and air missions. CJTF76 forward operating bases were regularly targeted by mortar and rockets, but with little effect. ISAF forces in KABUL PROVINCE (KMNB) conducted very successful security operations: no major incidents occurred in KABUL despite expectations of a catastrophic attack. ISAF forces in the NORTH AOO had very few incidents, although the German PRT at KUNDUZ wsa struck by rockets and four injured, one seriously. The Canadian elements (Recce Sqn, Inf Coy, Engr Sqn) were very effective and in particular kept the area surroundng Camp Julien much more secure than had been feared at first. The Recce Sqn is highly regarded with ISAF for its capabilities.
FUTURE: Much depends on what course of action the enemy pursues, but it is safe to say that we cannot let our guard down either in ISAF or here in CJTF76. The successful completion of the election process, with the inauguration of the new President, is the next major step, and one which the enemy may still target.
Cheers.
OVERALL: We are now into the fifth day after the Presidential Election on 09 Oct, which had been anticipated as a Decisive Point for the campaign here (both for Enemy and for Own Troops) The operational situations in both CJTF76 and ISAF's AOOs have remained surprisingly calm, with only a few isolated and ineffective incidents. Voting, including extended voting hours on the 10th due to bad weather in some provinces, was successfully completed throughout the country and at the in absentia locations such as Iran and Pakistan. A high percentage of Afghans (including women) were able to vote-their turnout was impressive despite very bad weather and a high risk of death/injury. (Puts Canadian voters to shame....) Commencing on the 10th, balllot collection began and has now been almost totally completed, again without any major incidents. Counting of ballots is on hold until the investigation team can complete its inquiry into allegations of improper procedures (wrong ink, mishandling of boxes,etc). While the Joint Election Management Board has admitted that there were some failures, the general opinion of international observers is that it was a mostly free and fair election. The failures seem to have been localized and likely will not have a significant effect, although this has yet to be confirmed. Although the 15 candidates running against Hamid Kharzai initially withdrew at the first report of election fraud, the three most important competitors have come back on board in the last two days (the others probably had zero chance of winning and they realized it...).
ENEMY: The various opposing forces (Taleban, HiG and AQ) conducted a campaign of attacks against Coalition, Afghan Govt, ISAF and civil targets during the days leading up to the election. Their activities accelerated during the 7-9 Oct, increasing to about 20-30 incidents/day, then dropped suddenly on 10 Oct. Despite the number of attacks, the enemy's efforts were surprisingly ineffective and friendly casualties/damage were very light. The nightmare scenarios envisioned for E-Day never materialized, although discoveries such as a 10,000 litre gasoline truck rigged as a VBIED and destined for Kandahar city give some indication of what was intended. Many of the attacks were incompetently executed, sometimes without much conviction, and point to an apparent absence of skill and leadership. A number of attacks were pre-empted by friendly forces, and in a few cases the bombers blew themselves up,apparently by mistake, since there was no useful effect. The combined effects of the Pakistani Army offensive with the CJTF76 offensive ops in the AF-PAK border region may have caught the enemy's base areas in a "hammer and anvil" effect, although this remains to be seen. The current AQ terrorist actions in Pakistan may be a reflection of the pressure they are feeling. Opinions on the reason for the current"pause" by the enemy vary, but it cannot be dismissed that he is regrouping and reorganizing, analyzing the results of his recent efforts, and planning the next stage. He is not gone, as shown by an IED attack on a convoy today in the SOUTH which is reported to have caused casualties.
FRIENDLY FORCES: The Afghan National Army (ANA) and Afghan National Police (ANP) are assessed as having acquitted themselves very well and were a vital part of the election security operations. OEF (CJTF76) forces conducted successful offensive operations in the SOUTH and SOUTHEAST, uncovering large numbers of caches, capturing a number of the enemy, wounding and killing others while suffering very light casualties. At the same time they conducted election security ops as well as various SF and air missions. CJTF76 forward operating bases were regularly targeted by mortar and rockets, but with little effect. ISAF forces in KABUL PROVINCE (KMNB) conducted very successful security operations: no major incidents occurred in KABUL despite expectations of a catastrophic attack. ISAF forces in the NORTH AOO had very few incidents, although the German PRT at KUNDUZ wsa struck by rockets and four injured, one seriously. The Canadian elements (Recce Sqn, Inf Coy, Engr Sqn) were very effective and in particular kept the area surroundng Camp Julien much more secure than had been feared at first. The Recce Sqn is highly regarded with ISAF for its capabilities.
FUTURE: Much depends on what course of action the enemy pursues, but it is safe to say that we cannot let our guard down either in ISAF or here in CJTF76. The successful completion of the election process, with the inauguration of the new President, is the next major step, and one which the enemy may still target.
Cheers.
