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US Presidency Post Donald Trump

  • Thread starter Thread starter QV
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Brad Sallows said:
>if the Democrats actually had someone electable to put forward.

Trump is so egregious that if he hadn't actually been elected, I would not have believed he could be.  I would like to believe that with an impeachment pinned to his tail he could not be re-elected, but the weak slate of Democratic front-runners is the least of the party's problems.  If the DNC and some media agencies (eg. CNN) are thought to be tilting the table for one of the progressives (Sanders, Warren) and then later on against the progressive in favour of the centrist (Biden), pissed-off voter defections to a third party candidate (eg. Green) can be the difference in key states just as in 2016.

I'm not sure that CNN and that ilk are tilting the table for progressives. Unfortunately, with all his manic and frantic activity, Trump continues to suck all the oxygen from the media's room. They are paying so much attention to his ramblings that whatever message the Democratic candidates are transmitting, is not being received by the public due to the random white noise out there. I may dislike Trump --in fact a lot--but I have to admit, he knows how to make everything be all about himself. (Just take a look at the administration's recent incentive to role back Michelle Obama's healthy school lunch programs in favour of the type of foods Trump prefers. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-administration-announces-proposals-loosen-guidelines-school-meals/story?id=68361208&cid=clicksource_4380645_5_film_strip_icymi_hed) That's not going to stop anytime soon.
 
Chris Pook said:
Janet Daley ... In this article she tries to explain to a Euro-Brit audience why Trump supporters are Trump supporters and why they seem to be willing to set aside the Constitution and its Institutions.  She fears the consequences.

I am a big fan of her opinions but here I think she is wide of the mark. 

Interesting. Like you, I think she is wide of the mark. However, you and I don't often agree. Why do you think she's off the mark?

:cheers:
 
FJAG said:
Interesting. Like you, I think she is wide of the mark. However, you and I don't often agree. Why do you think she's off the mark?

:cheers:

Short form? I don't fear the apocalypse.  My sense is that events like the Brexit elections, the Scottish referendum, the Catalonian rebellion, the Yellow Jacket riots, the Greek and Spanish and Italian and German ...... ad nauseam .... all are contributing to establishing a new equilibrium.  That will involve redirecting the course of some institutions, the fall of others and the creation of still others. 

If the United Kingdom is an institution it will survive, just as the Communist Party of China has survived, by reinventing itself.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see a United Kingdom comprising a devolved array of regional governments and free ports more akin to the Isle of Man and Channel Islands than to the old Westminster model.  Equally I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some accommodation between English Ireland and the United Kingdom on the basis that Gaelic has never caught on over there any more than it has in Scotland.  Wolfe Tone failed to join Ireland to revolutionary France.  The EU succeeded for a while but I firmly believe that language trumps all else in the culture stakes.

In the US - they too are slapping their institutions around a bit.  Shaking them down and moving them around. 

There is a book.  "The Cousins' Wars" by Kevin Phillips.  It argues that the Jacobean Wars of Britain (also known as the English Civil Wars), the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution and the American Civil War are all of a kind with all of them having a trans-Atlantic connection.  I am inclined to believe that that connection still exists and the current tumult is a continuation of those struggles - if a more polite version.  (I am also inclined to see them not so anglo-centrically but as a continuation of the broader Huguenot and other religious struggles on the Continent). 

The point of contention, as I tried to suggest above, is how to manage chaos, who gets to manage it, at what level?

Personally I don't see the debate, or the struggle ending.

And I'm content with that.

 
I should have written more clearly.  I meant that right now CNN appears to be tilting the table for one progressive (Warren) against the other progressive (Sanders).  There was a blow-up over questions asked in the recent debate, which were classic examples of embedding a premise not proven (the premise being Warren's version of Sanders's past comments about the hurdles faced by women in a presidential race).  Sanders supporters are pissed off.  Already too many people suspect that the establishment (DNC and Democrat-favouring media) is playing games to fix the outcome: initially, to ensure the more acceptable of the two progressive front-runners beats the other in case Biden doesn't look electable; later, to ensure Biden is picked if he does look electable.  If the eventual Democrat nominee loses because some voters stayed home, will it be more reasonable to blame them for not taking one for the team, or more reasonable to blame the establishment players who angered the voters?

The problems with the messages the Democratic candidates are transmitting are the content.  People aren't tuned out because Trump is a distraction; people are tuned out because the candidates are all talking to small sub-factions of potential Democratic voters and most of their ideas are so impractical as to be ridiculous.  But, best that people go on blaming Trump, so that the messaging goes uncorrected and the next administration is Republican.
 
Chris Pook said:
Short form? I don't fear the apocalypse. ...

Perhaps that's because you, like me, never had to live through one. My early years were spent in immediate post-war Germany and I heard more than one story from my aunts (most of my uncles never made it through the war) and parents about what wartime and interwar Germany was like. I expect the same for people who experience living in Vietnam during the 50s to 70s, Cambodia during the Khmer days; Ukraine post WW1; the Rwandan Civil War; the Yugoslavian breakup; or even Venezuela today. Here's a little list of what chaos and misery can look like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions#1980s

Chris Pook said:
There is a book.  "The Cousins' Wars" by Kevin Phillips.  It argues that the Jacobean Wars of Britain (also known as the English Civil Wars), the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution and the American Civil War are all of a kind with all of them having a trans-Atlantic connection.  I am inclined to believe that that connection still exists and the current tumult is a continuation of those struggles - if a more polite version.  (I am also inclined to see them not so anglo-centrically but as a continuation of the broader Huguenot and other religious struggles on the Continent). 

The point of contention, as I tried to suggest above, is how to manage chaos, who gets to manage it, at what level?

Personally I don't see the debate, or the struggle ending.

And I'm content with that.

I'm not. But like that part in the alcoholic's crede, I've recognized the things that I can't change so I don't get heartburn over that anymore. I do agree that many of the conflicts are based on religious (and/or racial) differences making people intolerant of each other but I think that fundamentally it's an economic struggle where the have's fight hard to keep and to increase what they have while the have-nots do the best they can to survive until the situation becomes intolerable. Modern communications capabilities make the sharing of grievances simpler and heightens the level of frustration. When the antivax movement can convince so many people to do stupid things in the face of science, imagine how easily a real grievance can be circulated and adopted by the masses.

The trouble is that true democracy only works well in small societies where direct participation is possible. The larger a given society gets the more it needs to rely on representative government which automatically means there will be winners who feel included and losers who feel excluded.

I think in Trumpism we have a unique confluence of Haves who are generally of Republican ideals and who see his administration fostering their ability to grow what they have; Evangelicals who feel they are losing what was once Christian control over the morals of the country; and Economic Have-nots (victims of the Rust Belt and others) who are searching for someone who will bring back the 1950s industrial powerhouse and solid jobs. On some issues, their interests coexist, on others they don't.

You can't realistically micro-manage a large country or even a province--it's simply too hard to handle all the details. What you have to do is set up a system whereby large numbers of small communities--neighbourhood by neighbourhood--manage themselves (and the chaos) under a stable framework. The way that I see the differences between Democrats and Republicans (or conservatives v liberals) is that Democrats favour a very detailed framework and Republicans favour a very loose one.

The problem with Trump is that he is undermining that stable framework. Equally important is that there will come a point, where his supporters will stop pretending that their interests are in alignment. The only question is: will the Democrats be able to offer an alternative vision that will pull their supporters and the pragmatic middle together? Or will there be a power struggle at the various neighbourhood levels?

:cheers:
 
>The only question is: will the Democrats be able to offer an alternative vision that will pull their supporters and the pragmatic middle together?

Impossible, if "You can't realistically micro-manage a large country or even a province".  Their answer to nearly everything they imagine to be a problem is to consolidate more authority at the highest level, with increasing amounts of regulation that become increasingly impossible to reasonably know and follow.  Call it "gouvernment conduit"; it should be about as successful as "bataille conduit".  Their entire political instinct is self-defeating.
 
I want to thank everyone contributing to this thread. The presentation of well argued, differing points of view in a thoughtful and respectful manner is a shining example of what all debate should be.

Keep it coming. I am learning alot.
 
FJAG said:
Perhaps that's because you, like me, never had to live through one. My early years were spent in immediate post-war Germany and I heard more than one story from my aunts (most of my uncles never made it through the war) and parents about what wartime and interwar Germany was like. I expect the same for people who experience living in Vietnam during the 50s to 70s, Cambodia during the Khmer days; Ukraine post WW1; the Rwandan Civil War; the Yugoslavian breakup; or even Venezuela today.
:cheers:

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.


 
Brad Sallows said:
>The only question is: will the Democrats be able to offer an alternative vision that will pull their supporters and the pragmatic middle together?

Impossible, if "You can't realistically micro-manage a large country or even a province".  Their answer to nearly everything they imagine to be a problem is to consolidate more authority at the highest level, with increasing amounts of regulation that become increasingly impossible to reasonably know and follow.  Call it "gouvernment conduit"; it should be about as successful as "bataille conduit".  Their entire political instinct is self-defeating.
It also makes the lives of those charged with enforcing Regulations and Acts miserable as more are piled on, often so poorly written they are contradictory, unclear or completely unenforceable.
 
Colin P said:
It also makes the lives of those charged with enforcing Regulations and Acts miserable as more are piled on, often so poorly written they are contradictory, unclear or completely unenforceable.

If there's one thing that I've learned it's that writing legislation and regulations is an art form and that there are very few artists in government.

;D
 
Several of my friends have sat in the drafting rooms for legislation as SME's for the NWPA>NPA>CNWA. I am so glad that I didn't, as I don't think I could play the game without hitting someone. The drafters use the drafting instructions and TB polices, along with DOJ lawyers to write the stuff, occasionally they ask the SME if it will work and then often get huffy when the SME brings to much reality in the room. The chance of you getting good drafting instructions, good drafters, switched on Lawyers with actual court experience and the right SME are few and far between. Throw in rushed timelines and there is a reason lawyers make millions arguing fine points of law on the finished product.
 
FJAG said:
Perhaps that's because you, like me, never had to live through one. My early years were spent in immediate post-war Germany and I heard more than one story from my aunts (most of my uncles never made it through the war) and parents about what wartime and interwar Germany was like. I expect the same for people who experience living in Vietnam during the 50s to 70s, Cambodia during the Khmer days; Ukraine post WW1; the Rwandan Civil War; the Yugoslavian breakup; or even Venezuela today. Here's a little list of what chaos and misery can look like:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_revolutions_and_rebellions#1980s

I'm not. But like that part in the alcoholic's crede, I've recognized the things that I can't change so I don't get heartburn over that anymore. I do agree that many of the conflicts are based on religious (and/or racial) differences making people intolerant of each other but I think that fundamentally it's an economic struggle where the have's fight hard to keep and to increase what they have while the have-nots do the best they can to survive until the situation becomes intolerable. Modern communications capabilities make the sharing of grievances simpler and heightens the level of frustration. When the antivax movement can convince so many people to do stupid things in the face of science, imagine how easily a real grievance can be circulated and adopted by the masses.

I think we can both agree that experience impacts one's sense of the future.  I believe that that applies to groups as much as to individuals. I further believe that that shared experience, that history and its perception, defines a culture - whether it be a familial, clan, tribal, national, imperial or racial culture. Those cultures will inevitably drive decision-making. 

Geography also plays its part. It decides whether cultures are isolated or dispersed.  Whether certain characteristics flourish or are submerged.  Whether change is rapidly accommodated or submerged in inertia.

I understand that your perceptions and my perceptions, and those of our respective cultures, could be at significant variance.  I can understand how continental history and experience, going back thousands of years, can encourage views similar to your own.  Being trapped in a circling mass of ever changing influences likely inclines people to seek to create order out of chaos.

On the other hand, the culture in which I grew up, generally has a different outlook.  I venture to suggest a more optimistic one.  One summarized as "It will all work out in the end" no matter how bad things get. Or "It will be right come the night". 

The world looks different across the Channel. That can be ascribed to the access to the open seas.  And America, Canada, Australia and Japan are far across the Channel.

That different view is what drives our different senses of what is necessary.

I believe the European sense is driven by a belief that one can't escape one's neighbours.  Therefore it is necessary to control one's neighbours.

The alternative sense is that one can always find breathing room, whether on the high seas or the lone prairies. You don't have to worry about fists and noses coming in contact.

And there you have the difference between the Urban and the Rural as well.  And the difference between free trading merchants, also known as pirates, and licenced traders with authorized and controlled monopolies.

FJAG said:
I do agree that many of the conflicts are based on religious (and/or racial) differences making people intolerant of each other but I think that fundamentally it's an economic struggle

Actually I think you and I talk past each other on religion.  I believe that when you see me write the word religion you infer that I am talking about God or gods, whether wine is blood, whether there is a heaven or hell or we just keep going around in circles.  Just to be clear,  that is not what I am meaning at all. 

When I say that I believe that religion is important to culture I am not talking about what a particular religion, church, sect or cult believes but rather the polity of the religion. How does a group of people decide on what they believe?  And how do they decide with whom they will associate?

My sense on this is that for millennia the debate has been between those who hold that there is a truth and that that truth can be revealed and that that revealed truth must be imposed.  In mediaeval Europe, including Britain. That position was the position held by the Church of Rome and dominated discourse.  It upheld the concept of a priesthood schooled in mysteries who would then underpin secular authority.  That priesthood predates Christ, Rome and Babylon.  It is a caste. Belief is entirely divorced from its existence.

That caste has always struggled against those that disagree with the need for such a caste.  Heretics are heretics not because of the beliefs they hold but because they don't accept the authority of the priesthood.  Any priesthood.

Those heretics have included Gnostics, Arians, Unitarians, Bogomils, Cathars, Albigensians, Lollards, Waldensians and many many more prior to the Reformation.  The Reformation didn't spring magically in the 1500s.  It was merely yet another eruption of a longstanding debate.

Luther gave voice to the Universal Priesthood, essentially a gnostic position, that every individual can understand god in their own way.    This largely came from the Papacy having lost its cachet due to three Popes all running around claiming to be the one, true, repository of the truth.  In the interests of order Luther, and the Kings and the Papacy all came to accept that divine authority could be distributed - within limits.  And that that authority could only be distributed as far as the King.  The King got to decide on the religion and control the church.

Calvin disagreed.  As did the citizens of Geneva.

Sweden, one of the first countries to adopt Luther was also one of the first countries to categorically reject Calvin.  Because Calvin rejected all priests and undermined all authority.

Then Calvinism gained a great advantage.  In 1560 it secured a national home and a supportive government that could buy arms and raise armies.  John Knox organized Presbyterian Scotland.  A country that devolved power to local communities and decided things in a general assembly.  That assembly was permitted by the local powers because the local churches were controlled by local magnates and their supporters acting as Elders of the Kirk.  If not quite democracy it certainly distributed power more broadly.

Meanwhile, in England, the English Lutheran church was suppressed by Bloody Mary Tudor and the protestants were driven underground, dispersed and detached from each other.  Each detached congregation was forced to, and free to, adopt their own set of beliefs and organizing principles.  Once that freedom had been found in the face of persecution and burning martyrs it was very hard  for anybody to convince people raised in that environment to accept subjugation to higher authority. And thus you have the Congregationalist Puritans.

From there you move on to the Quakers who believe that each individual experiences god their own way and is free to do so, and express it openly, when surrounded by friends.

I would further argue that that open, friendly association devolves in the Free Masons and from there to the Labour Party and Socialists and Communists and ultimately to modern atheists that feel free to accept or reject god, express their beliefs openly and associate with whom they like.

The mediaeval Roman church believed what the Pope believed.  The Lutheran churches believed what the King believed. The Presbyterian Church believed what the Lords of the Congregation believed  The Congregationalists believed what the Congregation decided.  The Quakers believed whatever they liked.  Presbyterians, Congregationalists and Quakers shifted and dissolved and changed direction and reformed as people associated freely choosing whose authority to accept and how much authority to voluntarily give up.  A chaotic polity if you will.

That polity moved from the religious world to the secular with the rise of the Masons, some of whom felt that God was necessary, some of whom felt that any deity was adequate and some, dominant on the Continent were accepting of atheism.

Those free associations, those underground meetings, suppressed by authority, gave space for the masses to meet and for the rise of secular movements leading to political beliefs like liberalism, communism and socialism.

Democracy rises regardless of authority.  The masses have their own organizing principles.




FJAG said:
The trouble is that true democracy only works well in small societies where direct participation is possible. The larger a given society gets the more it needs to rely on representative government which automatically means there will be winners who feel included and losers who feel excluded.

I take exception to the notion of true democracy.  I have no idea what true anything is.  And, to quote Bill Murray.  It just doesn't matter.  I do agree that size matters. And it is why I am disinclined to accept any imperium.

FJAG said:
I think in Trumpism we have a unique confluence of Haves who are generally of Republican ideals and who see his administration fostering their ability to grow what they have; Evangelicals who feel they are losing what was once Christian control over the morals of the country; and Economic Have-nots (victims of the Rust Belt and others) who are searching for someone who will bring back the 1950s industrial powerhouse and solid jobs. On some issues, their interests coexist, on others they don't.

As you like.  As I suggest above, by focusing on the beliefs of the Christian trees you might be missing the forest of the Christian polity.  And as to wanting to put food on the table... I find it hard to disagree with people that used to be able to do that and remember those days fondly.

FJAG said:
You can't realistically micro-manage a large country or even a province--it's simply too hard to handle all the details. What you have to do is set up a system whereby large numbers of small communities--neighbourhood by neighbourhood--manage themselves (and the chaos) under a stable framework. The way that I see the differences between Democrats and Republicans (or conservatives v liberals) is that Democrats favour a very detailed framework and Republicans favour a very loose one.

And there, without demur, we agree.

FJAG said:
The problem with Trump is that he is undermining that stable framework. Equally important is that there will come a point, where his supporters will stop pretending that their interests are in alignment. The only question is: will the Democrats be able to offer an alternative vision that will pull their supporters and the pragmatic middle together? Or will there be a power struggle at the various neighbourhood levels?

I have difficulty accepting that a framework that is constantly being modified, that is variously being attributed to 1968, 1945, 1776, 1689, 1519 ... can be defined as stable. I don't perceive Trump's disruption as any greater than Trudeau Srs effect on my life. 

As to his supporters - some will continue to find interests in alignment even when they find others in conflict.  No self-delusion is necessary. 

And as to the Democrats - the Lutheran party of the Prince and the Priesthood - we shall have to see at the next election whether they or the Presbyterians, the Congregationalists, the Quakers, the Masons and the freethinkers prevail.

I will always put my money on the neighbourhood and the individual.

:cheers:  Your good health, Friend.

Edit:  And the difficulty of finding people capable of drafting good, let alone perfect, rules and regulations, I would argue, just strengthens my case.

Jeez.  I did it again.  Didn't I?





 
Chris Pook said:
...
When I say that I believe that religion is important to culture I am not talking about what a particular religion, church, sect or cult believes but rather the polity of the religion. How does a group of people decide on what they believe?  And how do they decide with whom they will associate?
...
As I suggest above, by focusing on the beliefs of the Christian trees you might be missing the forest of the Christian polity.
...

This kind of leaves Trump aside for a moment (and I don't think this small diversion deserves its own thread).

It's not really the belief in a god that bothers me about religion; it is the polity. To my understanding church polity is generally one of three types: episcopal (a single all powerful leader of the church); presbyterian (a body of governing elders); or congregational (final authority rests with the congregation itself). Of the three, my objection to congregational is the least, however, being the cynic that I am I take the view that once faith and scripture is involved, there will always be someone in the congregation that will browbeat the others into how to think on any given topic based on their own interpretation.

Back to experiences that form your views. I started life as a Lutheran, a religion which in my youth I thought was pretty good because we didn't do all that Catholic fancy stuff (that's how you think at the age of eight). I then learned about the Lutheran doctrine of Justification - you are only saved from your sins by God's grace alone through faith alone on the basis of scripture alone. Further, we are all saddled with original sin because Adam and Eve upset the apple cart by trusting in their own strength, knowledge and wisdom. Basically my religion told me not to rely on myself but to take everything on faith as set down in the scriptures by some sheep herders and fishermen two to three millennia ago. If I did start to rely on my own strength, knowledge and wisdom (or that of others) I'd be damned to hell. The more I thought about it and looked at other religions the more I came to believe that I seemed to be involved in some weird ecclesiastical shell game.

While many tribes and states had kings before Christianity, it was with the general dissemination of the Christian scriptures that the concept of the divine right of kings came to Europe:

1 Sam 15 (1) Samuel also said unto Saul, The LORD sent me to anoint thee to be king over his people, over Israel: ...

IMHO, Christianity and the divine right was the primary reason that the Greek and Roman Republics concepts of democracy (flawed as they might have been) were suppressed for a thousand years. Democracy made its way back in spite of Christian polity rather than as a consequence of it. Even today, many Christian faiths (not all - and other faiths too - I don't want to single out Christians alone) preach intolerance towards their fellow citizens who are "different" from what their congregation believes the scriptures demand.

When I sat as a hearing officer with the Manitoba Human Rights Commission I argued, unsuccessfully, that human rights should be tiered so that there would be guidance when conflicting human rights were at issue. At the top tier there should be those characteristics which the individual has no control over: race, colour, ethnicity, physical disability, sex, sexual orientation etc while those characteristics over which the individual has some choice, such as their religion, political belief etc should be in a second tier. In that way someone expressing a human right in the second tier would not be able to discriminate against someone in the first tier regardless of how "honestly held" that belief is. Perhaps this is why I was never assigned a case dealing with religious issues.  :dunno:

Again, IMHO, everyone ought to be able to have and exercise their own religious beliefs up to the point where it does not harm another individual (and so long as it is doesn't cost the state anything - in fact I think religious entities should be taxed like any other business enterprise).

I can appreciate that Christianity has many facets some of which have evolved or at least transmuted but, that said, the faith's general dogma is enshrined in a book that reflects an old and non democratic society and which its adherents consider infallible.

In answer to your question:

How does a group of people decide on what they believe?  And how do they decide with whom they will associate?

My simplistic answer is: it depends on how they were initially indoctrinated and what social need their continued association with their faith group fulfills.

Have a good one.
:cheers:
 
FJAG said:
.... To my understanding church polity is generally one of three types: episcopal (a single all powerful leader of the church); presbyterian (a body of governing elders); or congregational (final authority rests with the congregation itself). Of the three, my objection to congregational is the least, however, being the cynic that I am I take the view that once faith and scripture is involved, there will always be someone in the congregation that will browbeat the others into how to think on any given topic based on their own interpretation.

I find your concerns about congregationalism interesting, in particular your comment
there will always be someone in the congregation that will browbeat the others into how to think on any given topic based on their own interpretation
.  That describes pretty much any meeting that I have ever had when discussing rules and regulations, laws and constitutions with anybody.  But it is particularly true of dealing with the local priesthood: the guild of inspectors.  Essentially, I believe the problem, as you define it, is endemic to the human condition.  And, in my view, further reason to support distributed decision making, like congregationalism, and to reject centralization of authority which merely creates a larger unitary congregation for "someone to browbeat the others into how to think on any given topic based on their own interpretation".

I know of many people that put their faith in the US Constitution, or the Canadian Charter, or QRAO, or the Canadian Electrical Code and are paid for their interpretations.

:cheers:

Edit: Sorry if I sounded as if I was going after Lutherans. Not my intent.  I only use it to differentiate, generically, Papal episcopals from National episcopals like Lutherans, Anglicans, Gallicans and Methodists. Again, my apologies if I caused offense.

 
None whatsoever. Hey. I'm a functional atheist. I won't be so  arrogant as to say that there is no god but I choose to live my life as if there isn't one. I tend to react negatively to people/organizations who insist categorically that there is one; who insist that their form of worship is the only way to be a moral person and to get into the afterlife; and who demand that I get on board their system. I put Lutheranism into that category. I don't dislike religions per se; I do dislike ones that proselytize aggressively.

And yes, I agree that unofficial leadership in a congregation is a human trait. I've always believed in the nine corporate personas: Initiates to the organizations are termed Bambi's (bright eyed and bushy tailed); with time they progress to becoming either Believers or Pragmatists; Believers progress to becoming Soldiers, Survivors or Alphas; while Pragmatists progress into Toilers, Naturals (ambitious and talented but not wedded to their work) or Heretics. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevefaktor/2012/11/15/feature-the-9-corporate-personality-types-how-to-inspire-them-to-innovate/#4eecf8e62753

Religous congregations are no different.

Okay. That's my last one on the topic. Back to Post Donald.

:cheers:
 
And bringing it back on track: Will Donald's congregation survive his departure?

My sense is that it will because I believe that the cultures from which his congregation recruits predate his leadership.  He is less of a creator than he is a figurehead, or better yet, a champion.
 
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