US Presidential Election 2020

[Weinie]

If you prefer to avoid facts and reality, Weinie, perhaps you should avoid the Washington Post.

mariomike,

Here are some conjectures, according to the Washington Post. I didn't make them up, they aren't factual, and they are biased as hell.

IMHO, anyone who is convinced a Civil War could break out in the US is either a) insane or b) nuts.

Here's an interesting dialogue, from 2019, discussing the subject:


BU Historian Answers: Are We Headed for Another Civil War?

A recent Washington Post headline says: “In America, talk turns to something not spoken of for 150 years: Civil war.” The story references, among others, Stanford University historian Victor Davis Hanson, who asked in a National Review essay last summer: “How, when, and why has the United States now arrived at the brink of a veritable civil war?” Another Washington Post story reports how Iowa Republican Congressman Steve King recently posted a meme warning that red states have “8 trillion bullets” in the event of a civil war. And a poll conducted last June by Rasmussen Reports found that 31 percent of probable US voters surveyed believe “it’s likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years.”

Is that legitimately where we stand today in the era of Donald Trump, particularly in the wake of the ramped-up rhetoric stemming from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election and whether the Trump campaign coordinated with Moscow, or is Civil War talk just crazy hyperbole?

BU Today put three questions to Nina Silber, a College of Arts & Sciences professor of history and American studies and the current president of the Society of Civil War Historians. Silber has done extensive research on the Civil War over more than two decades and has written several books on the subject, including Divided Houses: Gender and the Civil War (1992), Daughters of the Union: Northern Women Fight the Civil War (2005), and most recently, This War Ain’t Over: Fighting the Civil War in New Deal America (University of North Carolina Press, 2018). Along with her teaching and research, she has worked on numerous public history projects, including museum exhibitions at the Gettysburg National Military Park and film projects on the Civil War and Reconstruction eras.

So if anyone would have a knowledgeable perspective on the question of whether we are headed for civil war, it’s Silber. Read her answers about the proliferation of headlines referencing the possibility of another civil war.

http://www.bu.edu/articles/2019/are-we-headed-for-another-civil-war/

 

[Remius]

I think he is gaining momentum and if it holds he is on course for a landslide. There are enough indicators now that show a substantial portion of democrat voters are disillusioned with their party and their nominee.  The MSM and all the BS spin that has been going on for the last four years is also catching up and having a big influence.

These six democrat mayors endorsing Trump is one example among many: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/six-democrat-mayors-in-minnesota-endorse-trump-for-reelection/ar-BB18vpoF

"We didn't choose to leave the Democratic Party, the party left us."

Like I said it will be close.  Landslide is likely not going to happen one way or another.

Non affiliated voters are likely the key to either one winning.

 

[suffolkowner]

I'm not sure how good they are at American politics but did pretty good on the last Canadian federal election

https://338canada.com/usa/

 

[QV]

There is reporting that Biden is underperforming HRC's 2016 bid in every battle ground state.

 

[Weinie]

I would take every poll, report, conjecture, media prognostication, crystal ball, and soothsayer assurance and file 13 all of them. We all saw how well those  worked last time. The only poll that matters happens on Nov 3.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

I have to wonder. If Trump is so racist, why the Walk Away movement has so much traction. Why so many blacks are out there supporting him. It can't be blamed on education or stupidity. These are educated people leaving the democrats and switching to Trump. They speak of the opportunities, jobs, education, etc that Trump has provided them. The chance to break the democrat cycle of never being able to leave the ghetto. That's just one demographic out of the many that have become tone deaf to the the message of the democrats. Perhaps they see Biden as an empty vessel, under the control of radical socialists like Cortez? Whatever their reasoning, Trump is gaining support amongst traditional democrats.

 

[Remius]

I would take every poll, report, conjecture, media prognostication, crystal ball, and soothsayer assurance and file 13 all of them. We all saw how well those  worked last time. The only poll that matters happens on Nov 3.

Last time the national polls were pretty accurate.  State polls not so much.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

 

[mariomike]

Weinie, in Reply #340, you put your words in my quote box.

 

[mariomike]

Why so many blacks are out there supporting him.

Maybe the Republicans will get more support from minority voters in 2020 than they did in 2018.

Republican voters in 2018 Midterms,

Black 9%

Hispanic 29%

Asian 23%

Jewish 17%

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/08/the-2018-midterm-vote-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

 

[Remius]

Largest 538 polls


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/


Still a while to go though.

 

[Weinie]

Last time the national polls were pretty accurate.  State polls not so much.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/

Hence my post. National polls and popular vote matter not a whit. (California) Electoral college votes are all that matters.

 

[Weinie]

Weinie, in Reply #340, you put your words in my quote box.

Fat fingers

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

Maybe if you post that enough someone will actually believe it.  Polls are so passé now, millions just like me love screwing with them.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

It certainly looks like there's good movement in that direction. I saw an article the other day saying the democrats need 10% of their vote to be black in order to win, but Trump has been taking big bites out of that to where he's at 13%. I'm not sure if I got that right, I'll  try find the article again. Whatever, the gist of the article is that if he maintains the black support he has, the democrats lose, because they always used, and needed, that vote to get them over the top. Now Trump is taking that advantage away from them.

 

[OceanBonfire]

Military Times poll showing the heading. As far as I remember, it's similar to the last poll for the midterm:

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/

 

[Remius]

His support is rising apparently.  But it isn’t anything to be proud of.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/514174-poll-trump-approval-rises-among-black-hispanic-voters

Up nine points from 15%.  That still shows a 75% disapproval rate from registered black voters.  Not something to be fist bumping about yet.

This is approval ratings though. Might not translate into votes.

Still better than the 8% garnered by Trump in 2016.

 

[suffolkowner]

It will be an interesting election for sure. Will moderate Republicans switch to the Democrats, stick with Trump or stay home? Will progressive Democrats back the Biden/Harris ticket or stay home? Personally I can't see progressive Democrats switching to Trump as some have suggested

 

[Remius]

I think more progressives will turn out.  With Clinton they stayed home.  Not because they like Biden but he isn’t Clinton and they want Trump gone.

It may be a reverse of the last time with A segment of republicans Staying home.

 

[Donald H]

Maybe if you post that enough someone will actually believe it.  Polls are so passé now, millions just like me love screwing with them.

I've created my own little poll for the participants on this forum, in order for me to judge credibility and popularity. That is I just divide each member's post count by their milpoints.

Then I can use that list to judge any number of opinions on nearly any topic. It produces a rather interesting result but I won't broadcast it on the forum. Others may want to give it a try?

 

[mariomike]

Polls are so passé now, millions just like me love screwing with them.

Some prefer their feelings. I prefer data.

That still shows a 75% disapproval rate from registered black voters.  Not something to be fist bumping about yet.

Still better than the 8% garnered by Trump in 2016.

Republicans got it up to 9% in the 2018 midterms. Perhaps things have improved since then?

I've created my own little poll for the participants on this forum, in order for me to judge credibility and popularity.

Credibility and popularity are two different things.