US versus NATO

[Altair]

Interesting hypothesis: if "Son of Nato" forms after Dad's death, and doesn't have the Eastern European elements in it, thereby re-establishing the buffer that Gorbachev and Yeltsin understood from Reagan would remain post-USSR, is that Trump skillfully maneuvering to re-stabilize the relationship with Russia, thereby actually increasing stability?  ???

Regards
G2G

I have no doubts that if the US takes its ball and goes home, PESCO and the EII will be integrated into a single organization.

EII might be for external operations, PESCO for defense. PESCO does have the eastern bloc in it, so I don't see Russia stealing a march on Europe in that regard.

 

[daftandbarmy]

When I was at SHAPE I heard the saying "the purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out and the Germans in" more than once.

Given history, do we really think it is a good idea to be marginalizing Germany when nationalism is only starting to rise there again?  Do we really think it is a good idea to plant the idea of militarization in Germany again?  Do we think that by making it even harder for Merkel to keep the government together, and possibly enable the right wing to take root there?

Germany is already the 'King of Europe', and pretty much calls the shots for the EU, to their economic benefit. Their position is even stronger now with the UK out. Geography is also on their side, being the 'gateway to the east', and at the centre of the developing Chinese Belt and Road super project.

Add a million hard working and grateful refugees (who will breed like rabbits) that they can retrain and stick into their factories at low wages, because the 'Osties' are a lost welfare generation, and I think in about 10 years we'll see the rise of Germany that can go head to head with any other country globally as an economic giant.

Militarily? Their constitution keeps them focused internally, and economic giants call the shots in different ways, so they won't need an armoured blitzkrieg to run things in the future.

 

[Baz]

Germany is already the 'King of Europe', and pretty much calls the shots for the EU, to their economic benefit. Their position is even stronger now with the UK out. Geography is also on their side, being the 'gateway to the east', and at the centre of the developing Chinese Belt and Road super project.

Add a million hard working and grateful refugees (who will breed like rabbits) that they can retrain and stick into their factories at low wages, because the 'Osties' are a lost welfare generation, and I think in about 10 years we'll see the rise of Germany that can go head to head with any other country globally as an economic giant.

Militarily? Their constitution keeps them focused internally, and economic giants call the shots in different ways, so they won't need an armoured blitzkrieg to run things in the future.

True... I've also heard it said that Germany finally figured out they didn't need to conquer Europe, they just needed to buy it.

I guess what I'm saying is Nationalism hasn't served as well historically...

 

[Altair]

True... I've also heard it said that Germany finally figured out they didn't need to conquer Europe, they just needed to buy it.

I guess what I'm saying is Nationalism hasn't served as well historically...

Neither has American isolationism, but here we are.

 

[Baz]

Neither has American isolationism, but here we are.

In a lot of ways they are two sides of the same coin.

 

[Infanteer]

Isn't what Germany doing sort of a conflict of interest ?

Trade is a two way street when it comes to interest.

Look who the US traded with during the Cold War.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1979/10/04/huge-grain-sale-to-soviet-union-approved-by-us/41b3bc1d-8f75-4ed6-98db-77556322a3d9/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5c6f84f17b81

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Putin does not need to invade all of Europe when he can turn off the heat in winter instead. Putin wants to be able to control Europe and he is setting them up for that. Poland has told him to pound sand. For Europe, buying cheap gas from Russia is ok, as long as they have the infrastructure to receive and move gas from other sources. Including a smallish contract in place already with agreements for emergency supplies as required. Canada should lobby for that and work on Energy East and another LNG loading terminal to supplement Bearhead.
This means Putin cannot control Europe, but still has trade and revenue coming in, a fairish trade. 

 

[Retired AF Guy]

Trade is a two way street when it comes to interest.

Look who the US traded with during the Cold War.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1979/10/04/huge-grain-sale-to-soviet-union-approved-by-us/41b3bc1d-8f75-4ed6-98db-77556322a3d9/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5c6f84f17b81

At the same time, the Soviet Union was also one of major recipients of Canadian grain (IIRC Red China was also a major recipient).

 

[PuckChaser]

Russia's lost $1T USD in its GDP in the last couple of years, do you think they'd ever turn off LNG exports to Europe that account for roughly 12-15% of their entire export economy? They'd bankrupt themselves. Russia needs Europe as much as Europe needs Russia.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Russia's lost $1T USD in its GDP in the last couple of years, do you think they'd ever turn off LNG exports to Europe that account for roughly 12-15% of their entire export economy? They'd bankrupt themselves. Russia needs Europe as much as Europe needs Russia.

Until the supply chain to China kicks in....

 

[Colin Parkinson]

At the same time, the Soviet Union was also one of major recipients of Canadian grain (IIRC Red China was also a major recipient).

Russia is now the largest grain exporter in the world. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/russia-is-exporting-more-wheat-than-any-country-in-25-years

 

[Cloud Cover]

Until the supply chain to China kicks in....

Indeed! And that time is not too far away: https://ig.ft.com/gazprom-pipeline-power-of-siberia/

 

[Eye In The Sky]

That's a formidable force right off the bat, France, Germany, the UK working together.

Seriously?

It's funny you discount the military power of the USA so quickly, 'they can go it alone'...but consider that triad to be a formidable force. 

 

[Jarnhamar]

Seriously?

It's funny you discount the military power of the USA so quickly, 'they can go it alone'...but consider that triad to be a formidable force.

Those 3 countries have some serious internal security problems that aren't getting any better.

 

[Infanteer]

Those 3 countries have some serious internal security problems that aren't getting any better.

You could say the same about the U.S.

 

[Jarnhamar]

You could say the same about the U.S.

In hindsight yes definitely. I don;t think it's at the same level as the other 3 or with the same type of players but definitely a possibility for increased security concerns that the police may not be able to handle. In the case of the states though there's 400 million guns involved so those could act as a deterrent or accelerate.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

Those 3 countries have some serious internal security problems that aren't getting any better.

Are they also being over-run by murders, rapists and MS13?

 

[daftandbarmy]

Are they also being over-run by murders, rapists and MS13?

Do Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn count?

 

[Infanteer]

In hindsight yes definitely. I don;t think it's at the same level as the other 3 or with the same type of players but definitely a possibility for increased security concerns that the police may not be able to handle. In the case of the states though there's 400 million guns involved so those could act as a deterrent or accelerate.

What are the internal security risks in the U.K., Germany, and France?  How do they differ than the U.S.?  How are they more or less than the U.S.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Are they also being over-run by murders, rapists and MS13?

I'd say yes to various levels of all 3.

Stabbing epidemic in London, child sex gangs in the UK. Various terrorist attacks. Lots of unrest and violent protests across all 3.
Ms13 is apparently branching out quite a few places too.

Am I wrong to think that internal security problems in Germany UK and France pose a bigger threat to the spirit of NATO than in the US?