"What if??" A thread for people who like to speculate
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Mike
If Iceland got invaded then Canadians would be all mad that we sent Z Force there and would see it as part of a Canadian/British plot.
After all, why did we send them to what we knew would be guard duty?
Why did we send them when we knew they could not win or be helped after fighting started?
Books would be written about this selling out. The CBC would drag it up everyonce in awhile. People would know about Z Force.
In short, Iceland would be the new Hong Kong.
What if Germany had put off attacking Russia for another year, built up their supplies and logistics, and attacked as early as they could?
What if the Germans knew either when/where D-Day would happen OR that it would be the real invasion and not a diversion?
What if the Germans knew the allies had Ultra?
If Iceland got invaded then Canadians would be all mad that we sent Z Force there and would see it as part of a Canadian/British plot.
After all, why did we send them to what we knew would be guard duty?
Why did we send them when we knew they could not win or be helped after fighting started?
Books would be written about this selling out. The CBC would drag it up everyonce in awhile. People would know about Z Force.
In short, Iceland would be the new Hong Kong.
What if Germany had put off attacking Russia for another year, built up their supplies and logistics, and attacked as early as they could?
What if the Germans knew either when/where D-Day would happen OR that it would be the real invasion and not a diversion?
What if the Germans knew the allies had Ultra?
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Then you would be my favorite ModArmyVern said:
Not saying your not, but, uhhh, uh oh...
>
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Staff Weenie said:
Wrong,
although the US had cracked some of the Japanese codes their were several problems, primarily in the area of translation and the lack of personal. The US was never as successful as the Polish, French, British effort and the German codes. My most recent "what if" from Tug of War: The Canadian Victory That Opened Antwerp. What if "Mad Tuesday" never occurred, the British armoured carried on for another 50 miles. The war would have been over in 1944.
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Fair enough. I suppose I need a few more Alien Space Bats than I originally intended, but perhaps Canaris is on that plane with Adolf (for whatever reason) and a "new guy" ("Neumann"?) at the Abwehr detects the leaks, eliminates them (effectively plugging the gap). Perhaps von Manstein, once appointed OKW (or did I say OKH? I can never remember...) "makes up" a plan, follows up for leaks and observes Soviet reaction to test his and "Neumann"'s theories. They find the mole, have him secretly executed, and continue to feed the Reds with info: although this time it sends false info for key events, but true info for mundane events. Would that work?Staff Weenie said:
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Didnt the OKW dislike the use of spies in the first place as part of their 'old school' attitude? If i recall correctly they liked intelligence but did not approve of 'civilians' who played double roles.
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I'm not sure.GreyMatter said:
OKH became responsible for the conduct of the war in the East, and OKW for "everything else". Very frigged up. Maybe "post Hitler" this is all settled and OKW is responsible to provide direction to the Luftwaffe, Kriegsmarine and Heer. Whatever. I think that OKH may have been more "old school" than OKW, but I could be wrong.
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National Socialist Germany is an object lesson in Jerry Pournelle's "Iron Law of Bureaucracy". The internal organization of the Third Reich was a mess (trying to draw an org chart would be akin to Mike Holmes doing a "before" wiring diagram on one of the houses he fixes), and the petty and not so petty functionaries were willing to go to the mat to protect their bits of turft. The classic example that I recall is the navy was desperately trying to put the Type XXI "Electroboot" into production, but the various shipyards and companies which made the older Type VII simply refused to give up their allocations of workers and raw materials. Given the Type XXI was built out of modular sections and could be made far faster than the traditional type VII, you can only wonder what would have happened if the planned "surge" ever took to sea.
This sort of thing is rife in almost any society, but especially so in societies ruled by fear, force or secrecy; reading about the newly unearthed history of the Soviet space program makes the Byzantine Empire look simple and straightforward.
The Third Reich would have lurched along with or without Hitler (the USSR managed to survive with a similarly disfunctional society) until it was smashed by an external power (real history) or collapsed due to chronic dysfunction (the end of the USSR, and most autocratic societies in history). Given the smaller resource base of Germany, and the ability to apply direct military power against the centre (impossible during the Cold War due to the presence of nuclear weapons), I don't think National Socialist Germany would have survived the 1950's at the latest. It is also quite possible that the United States would have unleashed the first nuclear weapon against an undefeated Germany in the mid to late 1940's in persuit of "unconditional surrender".
This sort of thing is rife in almost any society, but especially so in societies ruled by fear, force or secrecy; reading about the newly unearthed history of the Soviet space program makes the Byzantine Empire look simple and straightforward.
The Third Reich would have lurched along with or without Hitler (the USSR managed to survive with a similarly disfunctional society) until it was smashed by an external power (real history) or collapsed due to chronic dysfunction (the end of the USSR, and most autocratic societies in history). Given the smaller resource base of Germany, and the ability to apply direct military power against the centre (impossible during the Cold War due to the presence of nuclear weapons), I don't think National Socialist Germany would have survived the 1950's at the latest. It is also quite possible that the United States would have unleashed the first nuclear weapon against an undefeated Germany in the mid to late 1940's in persuit of "unconditional surrender".
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J.T.'s Alternate History Site http://www.tateville.com/althistory/index.html
"I have a degree in history and have continued to study it and its related fields. Alternate History, or Counterfactual History, tries to answer the great questions of "What if so and so happened or didn't happened?". What if Germany had won WW1 or WW2? What if Britain had crushed the American Revolution? What if Napoleon had never fallen and had become supreme ruler of Europe? What if the Soviet Union had won the Cold War? And the most popular one: What if the South had won the Civil War/War Between the States/War of Secession? The list goes on and on. Authors such as Harry Turtledove, Robert Sobel, and many others have written books and novels to answer some of these questions. There are also amateur authors, many who have put up websites of their own."
Some interesting reading.
"I have a degree in history and have continued to study it and its related fields. Alternate History, or Counterfactual History, tries to answer the great questions of "What if so and so happened or didn't happened?". What if Germany had won WW1 or WW2? What if Britain had crushed the American Revolution? What if Napoleon had never fallen and had become supreme ruler of Europe? What if the Soviet Union had won the Cold War? And the most popular one: What if the South had won the Civil War/War Between the States/War of Secession? The list goes on and on. Authors such as Harry Turtledove, Robert Sobel, and many others have written books and novels to answer some of these questions. There are also amateur authors, many who have put up websites of their own."
Some interesting reading.
One question I've wondered about before, and hopefully no one else has posted it here, is what if Nazi ideology hadn't been racist? What if they had accepted the conquered peoples as equals, but as part of Germany once conquered? If they hadn't been so iron handed and evil, would they have found support among the people they oppressed? I mean imagine a conquered France where life goes on, except the mayor is a burgermeister. I mean without the awful concentration camps, the gestapo, the SS, all those loathsome elements of the racial supremacy, could they have formed an empire?
Spencer100
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Drummy said:What if Paul Hellyer had never been born?
Part of the answer might be that we would still have 17 Regular Force Bands in the system instead of 6 !
Drummy
An other part of the answer is some other ex minister would have to be looking for the "ginger addicted aliens." Or is that two different threads :
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DaveTee said:
The logic of "National Socialism" may have been explicitly racist, but it only built on the existing foundations of Socialism. One only has to look at full fledged expressions of Socialism to see "awful concentration camps, the gestapo, the SS" existing under different names, and "racial enemies" renamed as "enemies of the people", "Kulacks", "Social Parasites" and so on. In fact, the Third Reich were pikers compared to some of their Socialist counterparts: USSR=20 million + dead; Maoist China est 60 million dead; Pol Pot's Cambodia est 3 million dead.....
If Socialism was persued in a less agressive form, we may have seen something like sleepy and impoverished Francoist Spain, or the chaotic South American Juntas of the post war period (particularly Peronist Argentina) (or Cuba or Venesuala today). Even "Democraatic Socialism" (an oxymoron if there ever was one) simply leads to stagnation at best or the destruction of civil society like we are seeing in the UK today at worst. If Socialism isn't actively opposed, it can exist for a long time (gradually mutating into oligarchy or devolving into something resembling feudalism).
Be thankful the West won WW II and WW III.
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On 1 September 1943, Pravda issues an announcement that "Army Group Poltava" has ceased to exist, destroyed due to traitorous conduct by key members of the STAVKA. Of the 'convicted', Zhukov is the most important one to be named. He and the others are hanged in Red Square, and a massive stalement akin to the front in World War One settles across Russia. Germany has its breathing space: for now.
MORE
Situation: East Front. A stalemate akin to the trench warfare on the Western Front in the first world war stretches from Leningrad in the north to the Black Sea in the south. The Soviet Union had lost massive tank reserves and were again in a rebuilding stage in order to press home another offensive. The initial dates for the start of their latest offensive was to begin on 1 December 1943, however, due to the sheer numbers of lost tanks and crews, the date was postponed until sometime in the new year. In the meantime, the Germans were strengthening their positions and placing powerful mobile reserves behind the front in order to once again apply a "back hand blow" to any Soviet offensive, which they suspected to begin sometime around mid December.
In the West, the Allies had finally landed in Italy in early September. Their gains were less than expected initially. On the political front, the government in Rome surrendered following a coup that ousted Mussolini et al. The Germans reacted strongly, reinforcing their own forces in Italy such that they were able to occupy the entire nation, much as they had done with so many other nations they had already conquered.
In France, Rommel's staff, along with OB West, completed an extensive estimate as to the expected cross-channel invasion. For a timeline, they didn't expect any attempt to land until sometime in the spring. For a location, they dismissed outright the Pas de Calais. Although that area was closest to the shores of the UK, it was some distance from the ports that would be required to embark any invasion fleet. The unanimous opinion was that the area between Cherbourg and Le Havre (Normandy) was the obvious choice for any invasion. The beaches were suitable for landing draft, it was well within range for fighter support and the distance to the embarking ports was much closer than the Pas de Calais. As well, Cherbourg and Le Havre could serve initially as ports for supplying any invading army. Also curious was the rather rampant use of un encoded wireless traffic from Patton's "Army" opposite the Pas de Calais. Given the lack of traffic from anywhere else in the UK, it was obvious to Canaris and his staff that this was a ruse. Nevertheless, the armies in the Pas de Calais were readied in the event.
The Abwehr made a key intercept due to interrogations of captured Resistance leaders in France. Two lines of a poem by Verlain, Chanson d'Autumne, would indicate the landings. The BBC broadcast "messages" to the occupied nations, most of which were in fact coded instructions for the resistance. The first line, "Les sanglot longs des violons de l'automne" mean that the day would happen soon. The follow up, or executive would be broadcast within 48 hours of the invasion: "Blesse mon coeur d'une langueur monotone." Radio intercept units were listening intently for these lines. Chiefs of staff were instructed to put cancel leaves whenever the first line were heard. When the second line was intercepted, all units would go to maximum alert.
The months of winter 1943-1944 dragged on. Fighting in Italy was savage, but rather small scaled compared to the fighting of the previous years. The offensive in the East never materialised, which only bought time for the Germans. Their preparations for their defensive works were carried out. The only offensive action with any repurcussions at all was the intensifying of the seige at Leningrad. The Germans brought up their powerful railway guns to put pressure on the city. They reasoned correctly that any attempt on their part to attack the city would draw in Soviets like moths to a flame. Repeated attacks to break into the city failed miserably in the face of German opposition. In a military sense, the continued pressure on Leningrad did little. On a psychological and political sense, it drained the USSR of vital resources and effort in a fruitless mission.
At the home front of the US/UK bombing offensive over Germany, the autumn raids over Schweinfurt caused such loss that the US daylight raids ceased. The Wasserfall project was ready for initial implementation, however, the numbers were low. The Germans decided to place the missile batteries around the Ruhr and to use them exclusively at night: fighters would continue to form the first line of defence against any resumption of the US bomber offensive.
On the night of 1/2 December 1943, a UK raid over the Ruhr was engaged for the first time by Wasserfall. Night fighters initially conducted their intercepts as they followed the waves of bombers from the coast to the German border. As one British pilot commented later, they noticed that as soon as they entered German airspace, the fighter attacks ceased completely. At first the pilots reasoned that these fighters were called off and the next wave of fighters were simply delayed in making their intercept attempts. As they flew on, they became more and more suspicious of what was to await them. The normal 88mm FLAK was engaging them throughout their flight; however, there were no fighters at all.
As they passed over the Rhine on their terminal approaches to their targets, something aweful happened. As the pilot noted, a plane to his left suddenly erupted in a bright flash. A direct hit by FLAK would do that, and it wasn't all that rare of a sight, though disheartening. The pilot then noted a slow "tracer" arcing up from the ground towards them. It hit another plane directly and it too exploded. Looking around him, the pilot noted at least three other planes had burst into flame and were spiralling towards the earth. Little did he know that these were radar guided missiles, the "Wasserfall" in their first combat operation. Of 233 planes heading towards their target that night, 55 were destroyed by the Wasserfall intercepts. Combined with the 8 lost to night fighters and 3 to FLAK, the 28% casualty rate to the bombing force was totally unacceptable.
Thinking that the high rate was a freak of luck, the UK Bombers approached Germany again the next night. This time, of 198 planes, 68 were destroyed by Wasserfall, 4 to night fighers and 1 to FLAK. With a total of 37% of the force destroyed at night, UK Bomber Command suspended all bombing operations until they could figure out was the problem was.
On 8 December 1943, they amended their tactics such that they bombed military targets over France in anticipation of the invasion in the Spring: for the first time in years, the nights were quiet in Germany.
To Be Continued....
MORE
Situation: East Front. A stalemate akin to the trench warfare on the Western Front in the first world war stretches from Leningrad in the north to the Black Sea in the south. The Soviet Union had lost massive tank reserves and were again in a rebuilding stage in order to press home another offensive. The initial dates for the start of their latest offensive was to begin on 1 December 1943, however, due to the sheer numbers of lost tanks and crews, the date was postponed until sometime in the new year. In the meantime, the Germans were strengthening their positions and placing powerful mobile reserves behind the front in order to once again apply a "back hand blow" to any Soviet offensive, which they suspected to begin sometime around mid December.
In the West, the Allies had finally landed in Italy in early September. Their gains were less than expected initially. On the political front, the government in Rome surrendered following a coup that ousted Mussolini et al. The Germans reacted strongly, reinforcing their own forces in Italy such that they were able to occupy the entire nation, much as they had done with so many other nations they had already conquered.
In France, Rommel's staff, along with OB West, completed an extensive estimate as to the expected cross-channel invasion. For a timeline, they didn't expect any attempt to land until sometime in the spring. For a location, they dismissed outright the Pas de Calais. Although that area was closest to the shores of the UK, it was some distance from the ports that would be required to embark any invasion fleet. The unanimous opinion was that the area between Cherbourg and Le Havre (Normandy) was the obvious choice for any invasion. The beaches were suitable for landing draft, it was well within range for fighter support and the distance to the embarking ports was much closer than the Pas de Calais. As well, Cherbourg and Le Havre could serve initially as ports for supplying any invading army. Also curious was the rather rampant use of un encoded wireless traffic from Patton's "Army" opposite the Pas de Calais. Given the lack of traffic from anywhere else in the UK, it was obvious to Canaris and his staff that this was a ruse. Nevertheless, the armies in the Pas de Calais were readied in the event.
The Abwehr made a key intercept due to interrogations of captured Resistance leaders in France. Two lines of a poem by Verlain, Chanson d'Autumne, would indicate the landings. The BBC broadcast "messages" to the occupied nations, most of which were in fact coded instructions for the resistance. The first line, "Les sanglot longs des violons de l'automne" mean that the day would happen soon. The follow up, or executive would be broadcast within 48 hours of the invasion: "Blesse mon coeur d'une langueur monotone." Radio intercept units were listening intently for these lines. Chiefs of staff were instructed to put cancel leaves whenever the first line were heard. When the second line was intercepted, all units would go to maximum alert.
The months of winter 1943-1944 dragged on. Fighting in Italy was savage, but rather small scaled compared to the fighting of the previous years. The offensive in the East never materialised, which only bought time for the Germans. Their preparations for their defensive works were carried out. The only offensive action with any repurcussions at all was the intensifying of the seige at Leningrad. The Germans brought up their powerful railway guns to put pressure on the city. They reasoned correctly that any attempt on their part to attack the city would draw in Soviets like moths to a flame. Repeated attacks to break into the city failed miserably in the face of German opposition. In a military sense, the continued pressure on Leningrad did little. On a psychological and political sense, it drained the USSR of vital resources and effort in a fruitless mission.
At the home front of the US/UK bombing offensive over Germany, the autumn raids over Schweinfurt caused such loss that the US daylight raids ceased. The Wasserfall project was ready for initial implementation, however, the numbers were low. The Germans decided to place the missile batteries around the Ruhr and to use them exclusively at night: fighters would continue to form the first line of defence against any resumption of the US bomber offensive.
On the night of 1/2 December 1943, a UK raid over the Ruhr was engaged for the first time by Wasserfall. Night fighters initially conducted their intercepts as they followed the waves of bombers from the coast to the German border. As one British pilot commented later, they noticed that as soon as they entered German airspace, the fighter attacks ceased completely. At first the pilots reasoned that these fighters were called off and the next wave of fighters were simply delayed in making their intercept attempts. As they flew on, they became more and more suspicious of what was to await them. The normal 88mm FLAK was engaging them throughout their flight; however, there were no fighters at all.
As they passed over the Rhine on their terminal approaches to their targets, something aweful happened. As the pilot noted, a plane to his left suddenly erupted in a bright flash. A direct hit by FLAK would do that, and it wasn't all that rare of a sight, though disheartening. The pilot then noted a slow "tracer" arcing up from the ground towards them. It hit another plane directly and it too exploded. Looking around him, the pilot noted at least three other planes had burst into flame and were spiralling towards the earth. Little did he know that these were radar guided missiles, the "Wasserfall" in their first combat operation. Of 233 planes heading towards their target that night, 55 were destroyed by the Wasserfall intercepts. Combined with the 8 lost to night fighters and 3 to FLAK, the 28% casualty rate to the bombing force was totally unacceptable.
Thinking that the high rate was a freak of luck, the UK Bombers approached Germany again the next night. This time, of 198 planes, 68 were destroyed by Wasserfall, 4 to night fighers and 1 to FLAK. With a total of 37% of the force destroyed at night, UK Bomber Command suspended all bombing operations until they could figure out was the problem was.
On 8 December 1943, they amended their tactics such that they bombed military targets over France in anticipation of the invasion in the Spring: for the first time in years, the nights were quiet in Germany.
To Be Continued....
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Capt. Sensible,excellent post,now were getting somewhere.Can barely wait
for part 2.
Regards
for part 2.
Regards
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That was part two. Good post Garvin.time expired said:
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3rd Herd said:
Yep, Garvin is (was?) "von Garvin".
Historically, that nom de plume was mine about 10 years ago on "Case's Ladder" when I was playing Close Combat 2: A Bridge Too Far. I usually took the Germans, and like the Germans, had a losing win/loss rate. Still, I had the coolest toys ;D
EDIT: And thank you to all :-[
More to come! See what happens (happened?) in 1944!
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