"What if??" A thread for people who like to speculate

[a_majoor]

This is a "yes and no" sort of thing you are suggesting, Old Sweat, which is why these speculations are so fascinating! One event which comes to mind in a recent conflict is the destruction of a civilian air raid bunker in Baghdad during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Although it was probably not a significant event individually (except for the people who were in the bunker), the resulting propaganda and political fallout changed the character of the Desert Storm [the air war], and might have affected the prosecution of Desert Sabre [the ground war, yet to be launched at that point].

Here we have a single event (pin point attack on a bunker), caused by faulty or unclear intelligence (the USAF apparently believed it was a command and control bunker, or perhaps a shelter for Ba'athist leadership), with potentially war changing secondary effects (slowed down targetting cycles and more targets placed off limits). Of course in a different time and place, the American leadership would have said "Tough luck", which might have had other war changing effects (Iraqi civilians move en mass from target cities causing economic and social chaos, undermining the effectiveness and authority of the Ba'athist regime).

Just like the Internet; although everything is interconnected there are still some points where the connections are much more important than others.

 

[Old Sweat]

I remember the Bunker incident, Thucydides, now that you mention it. However, while it changed the methodology of the persecution of the air war, it did not alter the ultimate result. Further, I would argue that it had minimal effect on the ground campaign, and thus of the war. To me the great unknown of the Gulf War is what would have happened if Bush 41 had not agreed to halt the ground offensive. It may have been statesmenlike, although this is open to debate; it may have been an act of political calculation to avoid disturbing his Middle East allies; it may have been many thing, but it was not militarily sound. That is not to say that the coalition needed to have advanced pass the area of Basra. Another 48 hours would have seen the last of the Iraqui RG forces in the south destroyed and with it, Saddam's power base. Some judicious bribery, cohersion and some nudge, nudge, wink, wink diplomacy may well have brought about a regime change. And the rest, as they say, is not history.

 

[a_majoor]

Wow, is this ever a "what if?"

http://returnofthetory.btblogs.ca/2008/07/28/france-could-have-won-world-war-ii-when-it-began/

France Invades Germany!

All across the Internet, there have been several examples of alternate history surrounding World War II, which, if you’re a history buff like me, could send you off into hours of research on the topic.

Now, alternate endings aren’t the only interest.  One can often wonder what would have happened with an alternate beginning.

Sure, we all know that the British could have immediately issued an ultimatum to Hitler to pound salt on his Anschluss with Austria.  They could have drawn the line at Hitler’s claims to the Sudatenland.  Hell, they could have sent a clear message with regards to the Fuhrer’s blatant disregard of the Treaty of Versailles with regards to Germany’s rearmament.

But when you begin to research even deeper, you find gems like this, but what’s more interesting, is this:

France could have defeated Germany while German forces were tied up in Poland.

“…By then the French divisions had advanced approximately eight kilometres into Germany on a 24 kilometre-long strip of the frontier in the Saarland area. Maurice Gamelin ordered his troops to stop not closer than 1 kilometre from the German positions along the Siegfried Line. Poland was not notified of this decision. Instead, Gamelin informed marshal Edward Rydz-Smigly that half of his divisions were in contact with the enemy, and that French advances had forced the Wehrmacht to withdraw at least six divisions from Poland.”

This, of course, was an outright lie, but one has to wonder exactly why there was a need to lie.

I’m sure it’s easy for me to sit here 65 years after the fact and start an online debate on the subject, but one has to wonder if the whole conflict was even necessary.

Forgive me, I love reading about this stuff.

Go to the link and look at the embedded links as well!

 

[time expired]

Possibly Hitlers re militarizing of the the Rhineland in 1935 could
have been the time and place that WW2 could have been nipped
in the bud.Robust reaction (military) by the Western allies,would
have been a tremendous defeat and loss of face for Herr Hitler.It
may have caused the loss of Army support and even the industrialists
who had large interests in this region may have had second thoughts.
The problem was that the British were so deeply committed to the
Peace in Our Time,Appeasement policy that it is hard to see the
Government taking such action even if the will had existed.France
on the other hand was so divided politically, the Right actually
sympathized with the Nazis, that it was effectively paralyzed.All
that notwithstanding the opportunity was there,oh how little we
learn from history.
                        Regards

 

[a_majoor]

A "what if" for the unreconstituted Cold Warriors:

http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/

356 - The World War That Never Happened: US Occupies USSR
Filed under: Uncategorized — strangemaps @ 10:45 pm

On 27 October 1951, the US magazine Collier’s devoted an entire 130-page issue to the theme of “Russia’s Defeat and Occupation, 1952-1960; Preview of the War We Do Not Want.” The cover showed an American soldier in a helmet emblazoned with US and UN insignia, reading MP (Military Police) Occupation Forces.

Collier’s Magazine devoted 60,000 words to the hypothetical aftermath of a Third World War, which would start in 1952 and in which the US and UN would defeat the Soviet Union. The articles described, among others, an “A-Bomb Mission to Moscow” (the famous broadcaster Edward R. Murrow writing about a hypothetical B-36 raid destroying the Soviet capital from an ‘embedded’ perspective).

In the introduction, Collier’s proclaimed that it had chosen this theme: “To warn the evil masters of the Russian people that their conspiracy to enslave humanity is the dark, downhill road to World War III; to sound a powerful call for reason and understanding between the peoples of East and West — before it’s too late; to demonstrate that if the war we do not want is forced upon us, we will win.”

According to Collier’s scenario, World War Three would start with an attempted assassination of Yugoslavia’s leader, Marshal Tito (a communist but also a maverick, for refusing to align his country with the Soviets). This would lead to an uprising in Yugoslavia and to its invasion by (Kremlin-loyal) Warsaw Pact armies. It is not clear from the magazine cover how the US/UN victory would work out on the ground.

The map behind the soldier shows the UN flag flying over Moscow, with the Eastern Bloc countries, the Baltic Soviet republics and Ukraine (but not Belarus) marked as ‘occupied’. Does this leave the rest of the Soviet Union as ‘unoccupied’, or ‘less occupied’, while Moscow nevertheless is under US/UN control?
.
Thanks to Ilya Vinarsky for sending in a link to this map.

 

[vonGarvin]

1985: War in Europe:

(NOTE: This was "gamed" using 'NATO: The Next War in Europe' by victory games, copyright 1983.)
The summer of 1985 began as almost any other summer.  The days were longer, the sun shone brightly and things seemed normal.  They were anything but.  The Politburo had decided to send arms and other war supplies to counter US influence in Central America, yet their shipments had been compromised.  Covert action had failed, so the new Premier, the relatively unknown Mikhail Gorbachev, decided to put the hawks in the Kremlin at bay by acquiescing to their requests for a showdown with the Americans.  They had reasoned that it would heighten tensions for the summer, taking international attention away from their ever-growing problems in Afghanistan.  US reaction, they reasoned, would end up starving the Mujahedeen and allow their forces there to finally quash all resistance, for once and for all.
A Soviet naval force set sail from Murmansk late in June and was immediately shadowed by US and British submarines.  Escorting a number of transport ships, all ostensibly loaded with humanitarian supplies for the war-weary Latin Americans was a formidable force of Cruisers and lesser ships.  Also being tracked, but not reported in the media, were a number of attack submarines, which the Soviets had intended to use to track NATO submarines beneath the depths of the Atlantic.  As soon as the force passed the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap (GIUK Gap), the US quietly put it forces to Defence Condition 4.  As well, NATO fleets formed up on both sides of the Atlantic and set sail, to shadow the Soviet force.
As the Soviet fleet passed Cuba, it kept sailing to the South of the island, between it and Hispaniola.  It was here where the world came dangerously close to an accidental war.  For the previous week, NATO planes had routinely entered to within just a few thousand yards of the Soviet fleet as a deterrent.  On the 1st of July, a US F-15 Eagle, flying out of Florida, actually passed over the Soviet force at an altitude of just over 300 feet.  This was not the pilot’s intent.  His navigation system was in error, and he had thought that he was going to pass in front of the Soviet force.  The weather was overcast with a low ceiling, and the pilot was flying on instruments.  Keeping above the clouds, he flew to the point where he would drop below the cover and pass in front of the leading ships, at full afterburner. 
As he dove into the clouds, he readied to level off, and he began to increase his speed to just under subsonic.  Breaking out of the clouds at 1000 feet, he engaged his afterburners as he scanned off to his left.  He was immediately confused at seeing an empty ocean.  Had the Soviets changed course?  He turned to his right and his heart leapt into his throat.  There, in front of him was a large foreign ship.  It was gray, and looked menacing.  His eye was immediately drawn to the Red Ensign flying at its stern: Soviet!
Unknown to the pilot, he was heading directly for the Kiev, and its air defences were active.  They had just tracked a plane on a perfect intercept course flying steady at 5000 feet, when it dove right at them, with increasing speed!  The captain wasted no time and ordered all defences ready and cleared them to fire.  A battery of anti-aircraft guns tracked the F-15 and opened fire.  The F-15 appeared to attempt to evade by pulling back up into the clouds, but it was too late.  Anti-Aircraft fire tore into the plane’s wings and it immediately spun wildly out of control, crashing into the sea.  There were no parachutes.
US naval forces in the area had picked up a short SOS call that ended abruptly.  A search and rescue mission was launched immediately, but it was to no avail.  No wreckage or any sign of the mysterious SOS call was found.
In Washington, the Soviet Ambassador appeared un-announced at the White House.  He requested, no, demanded to speak to President Reagan about the unprovoked attack on Soviet warships in international waters!  By this time, the US had pieced together the evidence and concluded that their overdue pilot had somehow strayed over the Soviet fleet in what must have appeared to be an attack.  President Reagan talked with the ambassador, but he chose his words carefully.  Instead of acknowledging the actions of the previous hours, he only repeated his demands that the Soviet Fleet’s presence in waters so close to the US was unacceptable and that it must return to the Atlantic Ocean immediately. 
Following the meeting, the President met with his Joint Chiefs of Staff, who had already prepared options for him. 
“Mr President.  We have only a few options right now.  First of all, I recommend that we put our forces on DEFCON 3 immediately.  The Soviets will see this as a show of strength on our part.  And if nothing comes of this, we can stand back down to DEFCON 4 as a show of good faith.”
The President agreed, and after a few instructions to an aide, who left the room in a hurry, the briefing went on.  The first option was simple: plead ignorance and keep insisting that the Soviet force return to the Ocean.  The next two options were anything but simple.  The first complex option was to put US forces between the Soviets and their intended port, and force the Soviets to either fight or flee.  The second complex option, and perhaps the most dangerous, was to sink the accompanying Soviet submarines.  The Soviets would know about this; however, this event could be kept from the press, which was even now reporting that the US was missing a fighter and that there were reports of battle in the ocean.  A message would be sent to the Kremlin that would be loud and clear, and it would give them the option to flee with apparent honour.
“Gentlemen, I will have an answer for you in two hours.  For the time being, we will maintain the status quo.  And if anyone in here even hints anything to CNN, I’ll personally see to it that I send him to Siberia – strapped to an MX Missile!”
President Reagan discussed the events with Prime Minister Thatcher of England.  The Royal Navy provided the bulk of non-American ships in the NATO fleet, and one of their submarines was covertly tracking the Soviet subs that were escorting the Soviet surface fleet.  Together with the US submarines, all escorting subs could be sunk in one fell swoop.  The president wanted her opinion of his possible plan to eliminate the Soviet subs.
“Ronald, this is a very serious decision we have to make.  We found that with the Argentineans we had to be bold and show them that we would not stand for their aggression.  It worked, Ronald, it worked.  If we can neuter their force without anyone noticing but us and them, we have them on the ropes.  The ball will be in their court, and we can leave it to them to find a way out of this whole rotten mess.  I say sink them.”
The president and the prime minister passed on their orders to their respective militaries, and operation “MEDUSA” was put into action later that evening.  The American and British subs had received their orders during their routine surfacing that afternoon, and by midnight, they were all in attack position.  All five Soviet submarines were being successfully tracked, and the synchronised attack caught all Soviet crews unawares. 
The Soviet fleet was only a few hours away from putting into port when the Commander of the Fleet was informed of several simultaneous and powerful underwater explosions, all coinciding with the projected locations of the Soviet submarines.  The Commander went pale and ordered all forces to search for survivors.  He knew that something horrible had happened and the order of the day was for the subs to be located.  Without them, his fleet was naked and vulnerable, and could be sunk with nary a warning.
Wreckage from the destroyed submarines was located across the Caribbean, but there were no survivors.  The fleet had stopped its progress towards the port, and the world press, lead by CNN, was reporting its absence from all ports in Central America.  PRAVDA later reported that the Soviets had decided to abandon its efforts to deliver aid to Central America, as it was apparent that the US and UK forces were manoeuvring into blocking positions.  Theirs was a mission of peace, and the forces of capitalism, bent on making money from waging war, had stood in their way.  The deaths of the innocents would be on the hands of the West, specifically Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.  Demands were made of the west at the United Nations in New York, loudest coming from member states of the Warsaw Pact.  The German Democratic Republic submitted a resolution proposal that the US and the UK be sanctioned with a worldwide boycott as punishment for their war-like actions of the previous weeks.  It failed to pass.

 

[vonGarvin]

The Road to War
Following the loss of the five submarines in the Caribbean, the Politburo had decided to publicly humiliate NATO.  The aim of which was to dissolve the alliance, thus giving the Warsaw Pact in general, and the Soviet Union in particular, more freedom of action elsewhere.  The long-term standoff of conventional forces in Europe was limiting the USSR’s ability to project its influence elsewhere.  Afghanistan needed just a few more divisions and it would be a settled issue, once and for all.  Africa begged for military intervention on behalf of the Soviets.  Yet none of this could be achieved while five armies were being maintained in the German Democratic Republic, along with the myriad of other divisions and armies in the West of the USSR.
The plan was relatively simple.  The USSR would “expose” a West German spy ring in Berlin that was actively collecting on the German Democratic Republic.  Then, a “defecting spy” would profess to the world that some of the new Pershing rockets were being covertly stationed in West Berlin, with a view to achieving even greater range into the USSR, as well as to hit Soviet and German forces with nuclear weapons with virtually no warning.  This would allow NATO to attack the Warsaw Pact and enslave its citizens, leaving them to the mercy of the big corporations of the United States.
Once NATO was thus discredited, the KGB would watch for indications of dissention within the ranks of the western alliance, inform the Politburo, which would then press for the dissolution of the alliance.  Moscow had no delusions that the Americans or British would ever leave the Federal Republic; however, the exit of the minor nations from the alliance, especially of Norway, would give the Pact the leeway to reduce its presence in Europe.  It would be a public relations victory!
On the 23rd of July, Otto Kretschmer, a STASI agent, was presented to the press in Berlin as a defecting spy.  He alleged that he was born in a small town on the Elbe near the Inter German Border, and that he was recruited by the German security forces during his time in the Bundeswehr, due to his ability to speak Russian.  The fact that a West German could speak Russian was not all that uncommon, and he spoke the dialect of the region from which he professed to come.  In fact, he grew up on just the other side of the border and had actually worked in the West under false documentation for some time.  He said that he was part of a team that was selected for service in West Berlin, which was part of neither East nor West Germany.  This in itself was in violation of the terms of the occupation of Germany dating back to 1945.  He then dropped the bomb-shell that he was part of a site selection team for the placement of the new Pershing rockets that were just being deployed in Germany by the US, and that several dozen of the nuclear tipped rockets were already in place within West Berlin.  He even showed as evidence several photographs that he claimed he took.  He further alleged that he was speaking only now in order to save his country, Germany, from a nuclear holocaust.
The reaction was immediate.  The world press had a field day with the story of Kretschmer and soon the entire world was familiar with his face.  Media agents flocked to his alleged home town and found many people who remembered him from school, or work, and how he was just an average man, the stereotypical “man next door”.  Naturally, everyone was surprised by his “confession” that appeared in all the press.
On the 25th of July, the USSR representative in the United Nations rose and demanded the withdrawal of all Western Military forces from Berlin.  This was met with a rousing applause from several client states along with member states of the Warsaw Pact.  The UN debated the issue, and the governments of the US, Great Britain and the Federal Republic of Germany all vehemently denied Kretschmer’s allegations.  Soon there were protests all across the major cities of Western Europe, all demanding that the “evil” U.S. and British imperialist forces withdraw from Berlin and from Germany itself.

The Politburo was quite pleased with the events as they were panning out and were ready to enact their next stage of their ruse: the blockade of West Berlin.  On the 28th of July, Erich Honecker, premier of the German Democratic Republic, announced that all land access to West Berlin would be halted, effective immediately, and would only re-open once all Western Forces withdrew their nuclear forces from that part of the city.  He demanded access to the sites for his government in order to verify that the city was a nuclear free zone.
The west merely responded that since there were no such sites in Berlin, such a request was impossible to fulfill.  They demanded that the land access corridors be re-opened immediately.  They received their answer on the 1st of August when the head of the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany held a press conference and announced that he had just received orders to completely restrict air travel to and from the city until such time as his “socialist brothers” in Germany received a satisfactory answer from the Bundeskanzler, Helmut Kohl.  When pressed, he simply stated that all air traffic would be blocked and turned back towards its point of origin.
By the 4th of August, the city was in dire straits.  Fresh food was virtually non-existent, and there were notable signs of disorder within the city.  NATO announced to the Warsaw Pact, and to the world, that they were flying in unescorted and unarmed transports on a humanitarian mission to Berlin.  The 50 aircraft that were assembled for the first wave took off from all over the Federal Republic and formed up in a giant queue and headed east.  As they passed over Braunschweig, the world press was there to record the historic event.  Cargo planes of all shapes and sizes flew in tight formation, all heading east.  As they reached the border, they were met by a flight of MiG-23 jets.  The transports attempted to press on, but the East German jets fired warning shots in front of the lead aircraft, showing their resolve to use force if necessary.  Reluctantly, SACEUR ordered the planes to return.
The President of the US, the Prime Ministers of Great Britain, Holland and Canada met with Chancellor Kohl later that evening in an emergency summit, held in Bonn.  The time was now for force.
“But what if it doesn’t work?” asked Canadian Prime Minister Mulroney. 
“It will work.  It must work, Brian,” replied President Reagan.
“But what if it doesn’t?  What do we do then?”
“I suppose we have no choice.  We have to break the blockade using whatever force is necessary.  We cannot allow Berlin to starve, and there is no way that we will abandon it, either,” came the president’s reply. 
Chancellor Kohl nodded in agreement.  Through his translator, he said, “I will place the forces of the Federal Republic on alert and mobilise my reserves.  We must immediately instruct SACEUR to prepare to break the blockade by land.  I hope and pray that this will not come to blows; however, we will not stand idly by as Berlin starves.”
The KGB had yet to report to the Politburo on their latest assessment of NATO’s unity.  They didn’t need to.  On the morning of the 5th of August, from in front of the Bundestag in Bonn, every NATO head of state stood behind Chancellor Kohl as he announced that NATO was unsuccessful in its attempt to relieve Berlin with unarmed air forces, and that a second attempt would be made within hours, and this force would have armed German Tornadoes as escort to ensure their safe passage.  Notable in this press conference was French President Mitterrand.  Not only had the Soviet ruse failed to cause dissension within NATO, but it had even brought the French in on the side of NATO.
France was a NATO member state, of course; however, it was no longer part of the military structure since de Gaulle withdrew his forces from the alliance back in the 1960’s.  This ended on 5 August 1985 when President Mitterrand announced that effective immediately, the forces of France were again part of the military alliance.  NATO was speaking with one voice, and it caused great concern in Moscow.
At precisely 3 pm on the 5th of August, the relief flight crossed the Inter German Border over Helmstedt.  Within minutes, MiG 23’s of the Luftstreitkraefte moved in to intercept.  Their movements were picked up well ahead of time by a NATO AWACS flying several hundred kilometres to the west.  Four escorting Luftwaffe Tornadoes peeled off to intercept the interceptors.  They moved into a position behind the East German jets and fired warning shots.  The MiGs attempted to evade the Tornadoes, and one even moved into an attack position.  Other MiGs were moving into the area, as picked up by the AWACS, so a flight of Dutch F-16s moved quickly to intercept them.  Within minutes, dozens of NATO and Warsaw Pact fighters flew in mock dogfights over the skies of the Democratic Republic.  Meanwhile, the relief flight kept moving East, Berlin now in sight far away on the horizon.  80 kilometres west of Berlin, a Soviet MiG 23 that had joined the “fray” was able to shake off a pair of Belgian F-16’s and moved in on the transports.  He approached one from the rear, and loosed off a warning shot.  Unintentionally, one of his rounds actually struck the wing of a Canadian CC-130 Hercules, and it began to emit heavy smoke from its port wing.  The Belgians had since reacquired the Soviet MiG, and concluded that it had intended to shoot down the transport.  The lead aircraft moved quickly and was behind the MiG within seconds.  As the pilot of the MiG moved back for a second run at the Hercules, he suddenly heard his air attack siren go off.  Looking back, he noted the thin wispy smoke of an air to air missile.  He immediately attempted to evade, but it was to no avail.  The MiG exploded in mid air, and its wreckage scattered across the fields below.
The NATO escort fleet now assumed that the Warsaw Pact fighters had received clearance to engage the transports.  The Canadian plane was losing fuel and altitude quickly.  With the Belgian F-16s on either flank, the plane dropped lower and lower, seeking a place to put down the plane.  They were a scant 3 kilometres from the border of Greater West Berlin, and they had located a field where they would attempt an emergency landing.  The remainder of the transports were in their final approaches to the airfield in Berlin, and were in fact already in West Berlin airspace.
As the Hercules prepared for a crash landing, the NATO pilots received instructions over their radios.  They could not believe their ears.  They were to shoot down any Warsaw Pact aircraft that came within 5 nautical miles of any of the transports.  Moments later, a group of MiGs approached the transports from the East.  Switching to afterburner, four Tornadoes cut in front of the transports at supersonic speeds.  The controllers reported that the latest “bogies” were 4.8 nautical miles away from the transports, and that they were to be shot down.  The pilots complied.  The Soviet pilots were caught unawares as they suddenly found themselves evading radar guided missiles.  Two jets were able to evade the missiles; however, the other two were both shot down.  Within minutes, the Soviet and East German fighters were receiving support from ground based anti-aircraft batteries that surrounded Berlin.  All NATO fighters peeled back for the Federal Republic only moments after the Canadian transport crashed and burned in a field in rural West Berlin.  There were no survivors.  In all, five Warsaw Pact jets were shot down and several others damaged.  Three NATO aircraft received some minor damage from ground fire, but other than the Canadian transport, all NATO aircraft landed safely, the transports now “stranded” in West Berlin. 
In all, the NATO transports were able to bring in only enough food and supplies for 15,000 people for five days.  In a city of millions, it was nothing; however, the NATO leaders were able to stand before the world press and announce a success of sorts.  Prime Minister Mulroney was given the honour to make the announcement to the world (in both English and French).  He mentioned the sacrifice of the Canadians who were killed “in the service of peace”.  He condemned the recent actions of the Warsaw Pact in general, and the USSR in particular.  He then demanded, on the behalf of all NATO member states, that the blockade be lifted immediately.  All throughout West Germany, and especially along the border, a sense of panic began to emerge.  By early the next morning, the Autobahns were clogged with cars full of people, all heading west.  There was a vacuum forming along the Inter German border, and within three days, a strip of almost 50 kilometres was almost bereft of any civilian population.
In Moscow, the Politburo held an emergency meeting.  Their efforts to split the western alliance had failed.  As the premier said, they had two choices.  The first choice was to back down and open the border “in the interest of peace”.  They could then begin the long and difficult process to unilaterally withdraw forces from Germany, for use elsewhere, and shame the West to do the same.  The second choice was to maintain the blockade and prepare to destroy NATO by the use of force.  There were several war-plans from which to choose, and the Category II divisions were nearing completion of mobilisation.  Both options were viable and the Politburo argued well into the night over the merits of both.  In the end, the hawks were successful.  The general plan was agreed to, and the mechanism of war began to churn forward.
In Brussels, the leaders of NATO also held an emergency meeting.  The forces of all member nations were in the process of mobilising, and the US 9th Air Force was already deploying forward to Germany.  Elements of the REFORGER divisions were preparing to deploy, and the leaders were briefed that all NATO forces would be at 80% readiness within days.
“Ready for what?” asked Chancellor Kohl.
“To defend against a Soviet attack,” came the reply from SACEUR.
“Not good enough,” said the Chancellor.  “They must be ready to attack the Soviets!”  The room was silent for several moments until SACEUR was excused from the room by Prime Minister Thatcher.  As soon as the door closed, the leaders engaged in strong discussion.  The discussion weighed the merits of striking first versus of just digging in along the border.  Their decision was a compromise.  NATO forces would deploy along the border and prepare to repel any Soviet assault; however, they would move to relieve Berlin by ground if certain conditions were met.  First, it had to be apparent that a Soviet attack was imminent.  Second, the prospects of success had to be judged to be reasonable.  Finally, the goal of any attack was to relieve Berlin, not to conquer East Germany, and it had to be clear to the Honecker regime that “liberation” was not the goal of NATO. 
SACEUR was recalled and informed of the decision.  Now it was up to the military to achieve political aims “by other means.”  SACEUR assembled his staff, and orders were produced.  Plans and contingency plans were brought up at all levels and in all militaries in Europe.  Fleets were assembled, supplies stockpiled and finally, in a move the cemented the seriousness of the situation to the press, was the beginning of the evacuation of British, American and Canadian dependents back to their homelands.  NATO was now on a war-footing, and it was apparent to the Politburo that they had made the right decision to attack.  The question remained, who would strike first?

 

[vonGarvin]

The Warsaw Pact Deploys
The decision having been made, the Politburo assembled with their military advisors and gave them clear direction.  NATO was to be destroyed.  The Politburo would hold release authority for nuclear weapons, as well as, for the time being, chemical weapons.  The commander-in-chief for the Western Strategic Direction was informed that in all likelihood, he could receive the authority to employ chemical weapons anytime after the start of hostilities. 
The plan was rather simple in its nature.  The Group of Soviet Forces in Germany, consisting of five armies (The GSFG consisted of the 1st Guards Tank Army, the 2nd Guards Tank Army, the 3rd Shock Army, the 8th Guards Army and the 20th Guards Army.  In all, the GSFG counted 11 Tank Divisions and 14 Motor Rifle Divisions.  There were also a number of independent Tank Regiments and a Motor Rifle Brigade) , would strike in a concentrated blow along the border, with a view to breaking through to the Ruhr.  Once the Rhine had been reached, the Politburo would then seek a cessation of hostilities.  Terms would include the withdrawal of US and Soviet forces from Germany.  The USSR had no wishes to hold on to the Federal Republic.  They reasoned that its infrastructure would be shattered and they wanted no part in the reconstruction.  As well, the forces needed to garrison the Federal Republic would cause a further drain on their stretched forces.  The aim was, and remained, the dissolution of NATO so that the USSR could project its influence elsewhere, namely, in South Asia: Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran would be ripe for the picking. 
From North to South, the individual armies were tasked as follows:
The 2nd Guards Tank Army would assemble near the border across from Lübeck.  Its goal was to advance across Schleswig Holstein up to the Kiel Canal and on to the North Sea.  This would split Germany from Denmark, and threaten the flanks of NATO on the other bank of the Elbe River, as well as Hamburg itself.  Two airmobile brigades, along with Soviet and Polish Marines would assist the 2nd Guards in their advance, providing flank protection as well as to seize vital objectives ahead of the columns of tanks.
3rd Shock, in conjunction with 1st Guards Tank Army, would be the Pact main effort.  Together, they would attack in the area of Braunschweig and Hannover, with a view to forcing a crossing of the Weser River south of Bremen.  They would be preceded to the river by two brigades of airmobile troops, as well as a drop by an airborne (Desant) division.  This thrust, consisting of nine heavy divisions, four independent tank regiments, along with the airborne and airmobile troops would be too much for NATO to resist.  From their estimates, there would only be three or possibly four NATO divisions deployed in this area.  Combined with air attacks, as well as the shock of an attack in depth, the Commander of the GSFG estimated that only a day’s worth of battle, possible two, would put his forces on the Weser, with nothing between him and the Ruhr. 
Guarding the flank to the south of the main effort was the 20th Guards and 8th Guards Armies.  They would be augmented by an army from Czechoslovakia, the Boleslav Army.  20th Guards and 8th Guards would attack just to the north of Kassel, with a view to drawing in NATO divisions, as well as to provide secondary crossing sites in the upper Weser Valley.  The Boleslav Army, meanwhile, would deploy across the southern border of the German Democratic Republic and advance only so as to guard the southern flank of the attack further north.
In Czechoslovakia, the Olo Army would move into a guarding position along the border with the Federal Republic.  It would advance into Bavaria only if the opportunity presented itself. 
In the area around Berlin, the 20th Guards Army, which was based around the metropolis, would conduct a relief in place with the SM and PM armies out of Poland.  They were responsible for the occupation of West Berlin following its surrender; both armies would then move west and act as an exploitation force for the advance on the Ruhr.
Follow on Category II armies, 5th Guards Tank Army, 11th Guards Army, 13th Army and 7th Guards Tank Army would add a total of eight tank and four motor rifle divisions.  They constituted the Operational Manoeuvre Group (OMG) and they would follow the exploitation force and seize the Ruhr.  Once in place, they would fan out north and south along the Rhine.
The Soviet plan was simple but brutal.  It would attack in depth, employing three echelons.  The first echelon would smash the NATO front line, the Exploitation force would engage the follow on NATO divisions, leaving the Ruhr open for the OMG to seize.  The commander of the GSFG estimated that his forces would be on the Rhine in seven to ten days.  He acknowledged that there would be set backs and heavy losses, but, in the end, NATO would suffer more and he would achieve his political masters’ aim.  He pleaded for release authority for his chemical warfare stocks.  His request was denied.  The politburo wanted to keep them in reserve, for employment if the advance stalled.  As well, given that NATO didn’t have nearly the same stockpile of chemical weapons, they feared that the response would be nuclear. 
The Politburo had several war-plans that called for an initial nuclear strike; however, in this case, they were wary of US and UK submarines along their coast.  The actions back in June, in which their submarines were lost, led the politburo to believe that they had lost the ability to accurately and effectively track enemy subs.  For all they knew, the subs were already in launching positions along the coast.  Thus far, their own attack subs were having trouble just getting through the Greenland – Iceland – UK Gap!  As for the Pacific Ocean, their subs were still well out of launching positions to threaten California and the rest of the western US Coast.  As well, they couldn’t ignore China, which was staying out of the conflict for the time being.  As a result, the Soviet Fleets in the Pacific were meagre compared to the Atlantic.  And it was here where they knew that the war could be won or lost.  The US Navy, the Canadian Navy, the Royal Navy and the French Navy all combined to form several fleets, all of which were already escorting a number of convoys from the US and Canada to Europe.
So, with the war-plans in place and orders issued, the ground and air forces of the Warsaw Pact prepared to launch their attack on the Federal Republic.  D Day was set for the 15th of August.  On the 10th of August, two armies from Poland crossed the Elbe and conducted their relief-in-place with the 20th Guards Army.  The HQ of the 20th Guards, along with two divisions, prepared to entrain and head west.  The remainder of the army moved into assembly positions near the Inter German Border.  The Boleslav Army crossed the border with the German Democratic Republic and moved into position.  Its HQ, along with a division, also entrained for its move west. 
This movement was exactly what NATO Intelligence was looking for.  Satellite and signal intelligence confirmed the movement of these armies, along with the rest of the GSFG.  NATO concluded that H Hour for the attack would occur sometime on the 14th or 15th of August.  SACEUR informed his political masters of this on the evening of the 11th, and that his assessment was that if NATO were to pre-empt this attack, he would have to do so no later than the 13th.  After a brief meeting, the leaders of the NATO nations all agreed.  Thus, it was decided: NATO would strike at 0300 on the 13 August, 1985, the time that the Third World War would begin.

 

[vonGarvin]

NATO Strikes First!
NATO had a plan, and it was ready.  At precisely 0300 on Tuesday, the 13th of August, NATO aircraft, led by the secret F-117 Stealth Bombers, would strike all across the German Democratic Republic, targeting Warsaw Pact formations, logistical stockpiles and so forth.  Concurrent to this, NATO land units would cross the border with a view to striking the depth echelons and headquarters of the Armies poised to strike at them.  The aim was to decapitate the majority of the armies before driving on to West Berlin.  It would be 1000 pm the evening of the 12th on the West Coast of the US, 7 pm in California.  The start of the war would be in Prime Time in the US.  President Reagan prepared his speech to the nation to begin at precisely five minutes after the start of the war. 
NATO had a plan that was risky, but if it paid off, it would put the Warsaw Pact well out of position at the start of the war, and if followed up with the proper political measures, it would relieve the pressure on Berlin and open up the corridor.  Put simply, NATO intended to strike the forward armies just as they moved into their final assembly positions.  If it were timed correctly, they would even hit some of the divisions as they were still entrained.  In the north, the 1st German Corps (I GE) was to strike into the flanks of both the 2nd Guards Tank Army and the 3rd Shock Army.  Not only would it take the initiative away from the Pact, but it would also place the Corps across the Elbe and halfway on the road to Berlin.  I GE was to be assisted in its attack by the 3rd US Corps (III US), which was even now moving by rail into assembly areas south east of Hamburg.  In total, seven heavy NATO divisions were poised to strike at the Pact forces before they were ready.
In the south, three NATO corps, the German 3rd Corps (III GE), the 5th US (V US) and 7th US (VII US) were poised to strike at the south of the Warsaw Pact’s main effort.  8th Guards and 20th Guards were the targets of this force.  These three corps had seven heavy divisions ready to strike into the German Democratic Republic.  The British Army of the Rhine was deployed in a blocking position in the front of the Pact main effort.  The Dutch, Belgians, French and the 2nd German Corps (II GE) were deployed throughout the remainder of Germany, all with a view to block any flanking Pact moves.  Though NATO was prepared to strike with 14 heavy divisions, all backed by intense air strikes, their prospects were by no means assured. There were now over 35 Pact divisions in the German Democratic Republic, most of which were west of Berlin.  Yet NATO could not afford to wait any longer, for there were more divisions on the way, and worse yet would be to cede the initiative to the Pact.
At precisely 0230 on the 13th, the Commander of the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany was holding his daily conference with his Army Commanders, this time at the headquarters of the 1st Guards Tank Army, just outside of Magdeburg.  During the intelligence briefing, the generals were informed of the latest NATO movements.  US REFORGER elements were reported to be arriving at their various sites.  Thus far, a Headquarters, a division and an Armoured Cavalry Regiment were in place.  More disturbing to the generals was the report that six reserve Bundeswehr brigades were reported to be on the move.  Two moved into the area around Munich, and others were scattered across the Federal Republic of Germany.  Though these brigades didn’t offer that much of a threat to the Warsaw Pact plans, it did signal that NATO preparations were moving along quite well.  They were moving better than expected as a matter of fact.  The Dutch were reported to be moving into the area around Hamburg, as were some US units.  They were assessed to be from III US, and the Intelligence Chief briefed the assessment that they were probably deploying there to block any Pact moves on Hamburg.  Further south, some German units were noted to be deploying along the border.  Though they were quite close to the border, the intelligence chief briefed that this was exactly in line with NATO doctrine of forward defence.  This bode well for the Pact, he briefed, because since they were not deployed in depth, once a breakthrough were achieved, it would be a clean one with little force left to overcome in the enemy depth.  Further south, the British were deploying near Hannover, which was some distance back from the border. 
“Why does NATO profess to defend on the border, while the British are so far back?” asked the commander of the 3rd Shock.
“The British are more apt to follow reasonable military doctrine rather than heed the wishes of idiotic political masters.  They really don’t care about Germany, or the Germans.  We have intercepted some messages from the NATO command to the British General in command of the so-called ‘British Army of the Rhine’.  They want them further forward, near Braunschweig.  In short, we assess this dissention to show a crack in the alliance.  It’s not big, but we are working on ways to exploit it.”
The Intelligence chief continued on and briefed about the anticipated weather conditions, the terrain problems anticipated, and so forth.  He was finished at 0255 and the conference turned over to the chief of operations.  He started by briefing on the status of the various armies.  Most were close to being set in their assembly areas.  20th Guards had sorted out their problems with getting entrained and were even now on the move from Berlin.  Berlin was fully invested by the Poles, with a further three divisions bivouacking for the evening, in anticipation of moving into their attack positions the next day.
He was just finishing up briefing on the progress of the 3rd Shock when an air raid siren sounded off in the distance.  Since this was not that an unusual of an occurrence, the briefing carried on.  Suddenly, a very loud explosion caused everyone to stop and instinctively look at the ceiling.  Just then, a duty officer busted open the door and shouted at the top of his lungs: “AIR ATTACK!”  The generals all got up and calmly headed off to the air raid shelter as more explosions rocked the ground around them.  Only the Commander of the 1st Guards Tank went off in a separate direction.  This was his Headquarters and he needed to be updated on what was happening.  He realised that his staff wouldn’t know much, but they would know more than he. 
“Update,” he commanded as he entered the duty centre. 
“Comrade General. We appear to be under air attack; however, our radars are picking up nothing.  We are too far from the border for this to be artillery, and the explosions are too accurate anyway.”
“Any damage reports as of yet?”
“We have yet to assess any damage, comrade General.  We have lost landline communications with the 7th Guards Tank Division, but otherwise, wireless communications are clear.  Our forward divisions report no enemy actions.  There are no further reports from our flanking armies either.  Comrade General, we have no idea what this is.  We haven’t ruled out accidental explosion in an ammo dump either.”
“Then why bust in and report air attack?”
“At first we thought we heard jets flying overhead just before the explosions.  We thought it to be prudent.”
“Very well.  Anything else?”
“No sir.  The explosions have seemed to stop.  I’ll give the security forces a few more minutes to assess the situation before pressing them for information.  They heard the explosions as well as – “.  The Duty officer stopped in mid sentence as an explosion close to the duty centre nearly knocked both officers off of their feet.  It was followed up by two more in close proximity to the centre, and the lights dimmed temporarily.
“This is no ammo accident!  Tell all forces to be on maximum alert for air and ground attack!” screamed the commander as he raced out of the room.  He went to brief the commander of the GSFG of the attack and of his direction to his forces.
Unknown to the Soviets, they were indeed under air attack.  There were no radar contacts because they were being hit by the most secret of all US aircraft: the F-117.  The Stealth Bomber led a wave of hundreds of NATO aircraft that were in the process of striking Pact forces across the German Democratic Republic.  The attack on the HQ of the 1st Guards tank was deliberate.  The commanders had been tracked to the HQ by NATO intelligence sources, and this was a decapitation mission.  Though it failed to kill or wound any of the generals, the attack did destroy their helicopters awaiting them in the makeshift field outside of the HQ.  For the time being, they were immobile, and given the coördinated electronic attack, they were also without the ability to pass on direction.  The forward divisions were not being targeted as of yet, and for all they knew, the war would not begin for another 36 hours.  They could not be further from the truth.
At 1005 pm New York Time, President Ronald Reagan addressed the US as well as the world in a televised address.
“My fellow Americans, it is my duty to inform you that as of five minutes ago, US and NATO forces have begun the relief of Berlin...”

 

[vonGarvin]

Invasion!
NATO’s build up for the invasion went completely unnoticed by the Warsaw Pact.  Though the build up of divisions on the border was noted, the intent of NATO wasn’t even dreamt as possible by any in the GSFG HQ.  In the North, I GE Corps led the attack, with III US following up along both sides of the Elbe.  6 Panzer Division from I GE was able to overrun the HQ of 2nd Guards Tank Army with relative ease.  The remainder of the corps struck deep into the German Democratic Republic, in the general direction of Berlin.  3 and 7 Panzer Divisions advanced south of the Elbe, overrunning the HQ of the powerful 3rd Shock Army and the 207th Motor Rifle Division; however, they both suffered greatly under relentless Warsaw Pact close air attacks that almost stalled their advances.  Only 11th and 1st Panzer Divisions advanced straight east, overrunning and destroying two airmobile brigades.  These brigades were only 24 hours away from launching their assaults on the Weser River Valley.  As such, 1st Western Front lost virtually all of its airmobile assets. 
With the loss of these brigades, relatively small though they were, the pact lost a greater part of its ability to project deep into NATO’s rear areas, and thus attack in depth.  It was due to this loss that the attack in the north was cancelled even before it began.  3rd Shock and 2nd Guards Tank Armies were in dire straits and confusion reigned in the front line divisions, which had lost their respective headquarters in the opening hours of the attack.  This combined with two NATO heavy divisions barely 30 miles from Berlin, with more hot on their heels, caused the Warsaw Pact to reluctantly revert to the defensive north of the Elbe: the 1st Western Front had lost all offensive spirit. 
To the south of the Pact main effort, the three-corps attack by the Germans and Americans tore into the south east portion of the German Democratic Republic with relative ease.  8th Guards Army lost its headquarters to the 10th Panzer Division, transferred to III GE Corps from II Corps in the south.  Meanwhile, 5th and 12th Panzer Divisions threatened 20th Guards Army as it was entering railheads south of Magdeburg.  Only a spirited defence by 14th Guards Motor Rifle division averted disaster.  Nevertheless, Pact losses were heavy, and more importantly, combined with the loss of three of five Army Headquarters, and upwards of 14 heavy divisions driving on either flank, a fateful decision was made by commander GSFG by 1800 on the 13th of August: the entire force was to move back to the Saale and Elbe Rivers in order to stall the NATO attack.  NATO aircraft were threatening his divisions across Germany, logistical stocks were in ruins and without the withdrawal, even the entire 1st Guards Tank Army, which had hitherto avoided any major attacks by NATO was in grave danger of encirclement.
Elements of the 8th Guards Army, severely depleted in their numbers, narrowly avoided complete encirclement just south of the Harz Mountains.  Elements of the US V and VII Corps were stopped in their advance by the terrain as much as due to hostile action.  As such, 20th Guards and 39th Guards Motor Rifle Divisions lost many of their numbers to the advancing Americans.  They were able to reach to only within 30 miles of the Saale before nightfall, harassed by NATO aircraft the entire time.  Nevertheless, all across the front, the withdrawal never reverted to a rout only due to the strong leadership of all ranks, from the platoon leaders up to and including the divisional commanders.
The assault on Berlin went ahead by the PM and SM armies out of Poland in spite of heavy NATO attacks by deep strike air craft.  The Pact suffered grave losses, including the entire 20th Tank Division.  The garrison also suffered heavily, as did the city itself.  Only the US brigade avoided complete destruction, and its hold within the city centre was tenuous at best.  Still, the soldiers were emboldened by reports that two Bundeswehr panzer divisions were a scant 30 miles from the city, and advancing against lessening opposition.  Most heartening of all was the arrival of PAH-1 attack helicopters on the evening of the 13th.  They had flown directly from the divisional front line.  Their support was nominal at best; however, it boosted morale for the force that nearly saw complete annihilation during the day’s fighting.  The only thing that saved them, as assessed by the US G2, was that the Pact’s hand was forced before they were ready to attack.  In fact, the attack was not well-coördinated.  Air support never seemed to arrive when it was needed by the Pact forces, and the Berlin Garrison was often able to counterattack lone battalions across the city as the fighting raged.  In short, it was nearly a disaster for the Pact, in spite of the extra offensive support that was allotted for the attack.
At the Politburo, the premier was furious.  “How the hell could you miss the signs of such a massive attack by NATO?  You told us that their alliance was fracturing!” yelled the premier at his minister of defence.
“This is impossible...” he began before the premier’s response stopped him.
“Impossible?  Their tanks are almost in Berlin!  The god-damned Poles are digging in to stop them instead of attacking into the city itself!”
“I don’t know what you want me to say,” replied the minister.
“Just tell me that you quit!” 
With that, the minister got up and left the room.  His face was ashen, and he was visibly upset at the recent turn of events.  President Reagan’s address made it clear that any use of chemical weapons would be considered an attack by weapons of mass destruction, and NATO would reply in kind.  Knowing that NATO’s chemical warfare stocks were meagre at best, there was only one possible option for NATO: nuclear weapons.  The minister was found dead the next morning.  He took an overdose of sleeping pills and died in his sleep the evening of the 15th.
Instead of causing a fracture within NATO, the pact itself seemed to be dissolving.  Poland had instructed its divisions to cease all attacks on Berlin and to prepare to defend itself against the advancing NATO divisions.  The Olo and Boleslav armies likewise reverted to the defence, leaving only the militaries of the German Democratic Republic and of the Soviet Union even considering going on the attack.  In the case of the GDR, the forces of the Nationalvolksarmee saw the NATO attack for what it was: an invasion of their homeland.  It was also rather insulting that the forces of the Federal Republic were on the spearhead of the invasion.  This led to some rather odd events to transpire in the now-occupied city of Erfurt.
Seeing the panzers of the 5th Panzer Division in the streets of his town, the Bürgermeister approached one of the battalion commanders and asked him his intentions.
“We are relieving Berlin,” came the terse reply.
“From whom?  The Americans?” asked the mayor. 
“No, from Honecker,” answered the Oberstleutnant. 
“Why would Berlin need to be relieved from the leader of Germany?” asked the mayor.  The lieutenant-colonel offered no reply.  Smiling, the mayor of Erfurt turned and went back to his office.  He informed the local population to coöperate with the occupying forces of the Federal Republic.  He also ensured them that the forces of the Nationalvolksarmee would return shortly.  The battalion commander was nonplussed by this announcement.

 

[vonGarvin]

Note: I'm still working on this, and the forces are indeed poised to strike on Berlin in my room (on my gaming table).  I hope to have more soon.  I just couldn't wait any longer!  (Now everyone knows what I did for the weekend between hockey games and Crown Royal!!)

 

[Kat Stevens]

God luv, ya, you giant nerdburger, you!

 

[vonGarvin]

God luv, ya, you giant nerdburger, you!

Hey, it was either that or head to the Warehouse and attempt to make a mockery of my wedding vows!  LOL

 

[Mike Baker]

More please

 

[vonGarvin]

Relief of Berlin
As the 14th arrived, NATO was ready to complete the ground link-up with Berlin with elements of I GE Corps.  Due to the heavy fighting in the city the day previous, the clouds from the burning fires within the city were quite visible to the members of the advancing German Panzer Divisions.  Just before dawn, if they were listening, they also would have heard the sounds of military transports above them.  The 25th, 26th and 27th Fallschirmjäger brigades were being flown into the city to act as reinforcements for the beleaguered American defenders. 
As they flew toward the city in the false dawn created by the burning city of Berlin, the transports were escorted by a myriad of NATO fighters.  This large formation was easily detected by the defending Warsaw Pact.  In order to avoid ground fire, the formation flew roughly along the axis of advance of the Panzer divisions.  As such, the main threat was from enemy fighters.  On several occasions, the defences were all too effective, but in the end, most of the transports survived.  Nevertheless, the losses were gruesome, and amounted to nearly one third of the paratroopers en route to Berlin.  Within hours of the first landings at Tempelhof, the German Paras were on the front lines, now eerily silent as the Poles opposite them were still gearing up for their next attack.  The reinforcement of Berlin by what were effectively two brigades of troops airlifted in gave the Americans much needed breathing room, not to mention some rest for its weary troops. 
Unknown to NATO, the SM and PM armies were not quite ready to attack.  They were seeking authority to employ chemical weapons; however, the Politburo refused to grant release authority.  They truly feared NATO submarines, even though two probable attack subs were sunk north of Norway.  (One was indeed a sub, an American nuclear attack sub.  The other “sub” was actually a pod of whales that was grossly misidentified during the same skirmish that sunk the Americans).  As such, the Poles (with the associated Soviet divisions) were well-dispersed for fear of NATO airstrikes, yet in the final stages of preparation for the next round of attacks. 
The Poles didn’t get a chance to start their attack.  At 1800 on the 14th, some 36 hours after the war started, the Polish 8th Motor Rifle Division reported that it was in contact with German tanks that had advanced from the West.  Dispersed as they were in the surrounding villages, woods and hills to the north of Berlin, most of the division was able to avoid being struck in the first assault by the 1st and the 11th Panzergrenadier Divisions.  Nevertheless, their attempt to conduct countermoves ended in disaster for the Poles.  Just as one of its Motor Rifle Regiments had stepped off into what should have been an open flank, they themselves were struck in their flank by the 6th Panzergrenadier Division.  By midnight, the 8th Motor Rifle Division ceased to exist as a fighting formation, its survivors either retreating in a full rout east, or marching reluctantly west into NATO prisoner of war cages.  As a result, elements of the 1st Panzergrenadier Division made contact with the Berlin garrison at 0230 hours on the 15th of August.  Ironically, this was the planned H Hour for the Warsaw Pact for their invasion of the Federal Republic.
Meanwhile, in the south west of the German Democratic Republic, the NATO assault let up.  The Warsaw Pact elements that had escaped encirclement were now safely behind the Saale River, and they were digging in.  Given the success up north, it was considered no longer necessary to advance on Berlin from this direction.  Nevertheless, this portion of the front had to be maintained, lest the Pact forces here be freed up to conduct countermoves on the main drive east.  So, SACEUR ordered V and VII US to “maintain contact” with the opposing forces along the Saale and the Elbe, whilst III GE headed further north, feeding itself into the breach heading towards Berlin. 
Into this ever-growing salient were fed more formations by SACEUR.  In the North, the 1st Netherlands Corps (I NE) moved into defensive positions to the north of the Elbe, roughly in line with Schwerin.  Thus, they formed the hard left shoulder of the “bulge”, as the front was even now being described in the media.  The hard right shoulder of the salient was held by the British Army of the Rhine.  The British Forces hadn’t conducted much in the way of offensive operations as of yet: they were until now being held in reserve by SACEUR.  By committing them, he was left with no significant reserves, and he knew that this was a gamble. 
So, as the morning of the 15th broke, a German and a US Corps had made it to Berlin, and even now these two corps were consolidating, making good on Helmut Kohl’s claim that this was simply a mission to relieve Berlin and not an attempt to “liberate” the German Democratic Republic and force the issue of reunification.  Of course, though NATO had just demonstrated significant ability to break open the front, they were by no means able to take the rest of the country.  Though battered, the Warsaw Pact was still a formidable force.  Over half of the GDR remained in Pact hands, and even now the 1st Guards Tank Army had broken off contact with the front near Magdeburg and had reappeared in the north, opposite I GE.  It was only through the use of surprise in a well-coördinated attack that NATO was able to achieve the successes it did.  Now all elements of surprise were gone, and it was only a matter of holding on to what they gained.
Though there were some front line skirmishes and exchange of artillery fire, for the most part, the fighting had stopped – at least on the front lines.  The pact had abandoned all efforts at taking Berlin by force and had even withdrawn to their starting positions.  At least along the border of West Berlin there were already field fortifications, complete with cleared fields of fire that the Poles could use.  As it was, they were barely in a condition to fight, let alone carry on the attack!
Behind the NATO lines, massive convoys were beginning to move east.  They were under heavy air cover as they moved with their humanitarian supplies.  Even though this move was detected quite early by the Pact, they made no efforts to attack it.  The front was stagnant.  The military forces had fought themselves to a stalemate, and it was now up to the Politicians to make the next move.

 

[Dennis Ruhl]

The "what if" if the cold war ran hot was a bit obvious to me.  I remember asking a tank squadrom leader in the early 1980s what NATO's 5,000 tanks would do against the Warsaw Pact's 50,000 and he voiced confidence in our superior equipment.  Personally, I suspect Russian troops would have been sipping borscht on the Channel within 2 weeks.

 

[Kat Stevens]

Actually, closer to 26 000 tanks crewed by poorly trained conscripts, vs roughly 11 000 NATO tanks crewed by motivated volunteer soldiers.  In a conventional punchup, if Ivan didn't finish us off completely within 10 days or so, his odds of victory dropped rapidly.

 

[Michael OLeary]

What about numbers of other anti-tank weapon systems, land-based and airborne?  Not every land battle in the cold war was projected to be tank vs tank.

 

[vonGarvin]

In terms of aircraft, NATO had the definite edge in the long term.  And to amplify Mr. O'Leary's statement, air power alone wouldn't win any war (nor would tanks).  There was a cartoon popular in NATO air squadrons back in the Cold War that depicted two Soviet tankers sipping coffee at a cafe in Paris.  One asks the other "Tell me, Ivan, who did win the air war?"

Anyway, I didn't just pull the story out of my hoop.  Though Mr. Clancy and Mr. Peters both wrote novels about the cold war going hot, so did a few others.  In my case, I gamed this using one of the many games on the subject, and just wrote a story around the military resolution.

My aim was to provide a bit of reading and "what if" pleasure for the members and guests of this forum.  I hope that I was successful. ;D

 

[a_majoor]

Very enjoyable; sort of a mirror image of "Red Army" by Ralph Peters (IMO "the" best contrafactual Cold War novel).

My writing career was aborted by the end of the Cold War. While in Cyprus in 1988 I was (like so many other troops) writing a novel to pass the time. The story line was the fate of 4 CMBG after a Warsaw pact invasion; the Soviets destroyed 4 CMBG, but were coming to the realization that the Canadians hadn't stopped fighting......(one of the characters was scavenging wreaked German AFV's for fuel and parts to repair the Leopard hidden in a barn for a final raid). The disintigration of the Warsaw Pact put paid to that scenario.