CAN-USA Tariff Strife (split from various pol threads)

[The Bread Guy]

A good explanation on why expending energy fighting Trump's tariffs may be a bad idea.

More from the guest on this issue here:

Trevor Tombe: Premier Smith is right that restricting oil exports is a bad idea. Here’s a better option

thehub.ca

 

[Halifax Tar]

A problem for me.

David Herle.

Just watching this podcast and watching David's body language I sense that he has a hate on. And I don't think it is limited to his feelings towards Trump.



An aggressive economic nationalist. Purveyor of Liberal party doctrines. Ontario centric. Spoiling for a fight. Not overly receptive to Trevor Tombe's suggestion that Canada do "the other thing" and make itself more competitive.

Tombe suggests opening the market, dropping inter-provincial barriers, finding new markets, new pipelines and ports, making Canada more attractive to international, and for that matter, domestic investors. Why are people sending twice as much investment capital to the States as they are spending in Canada? Perhaps it is because the Canadian government, Wynne's government, Herle's government, has given them nothing to invest in for the past 9 years.

Jack Mintz: Canada has lost $225 billion in foreign investment since 2016

Ottawa boasts of large inflows of capital but outflows are even bigger and if Canadians prefer to invest elsewhere that's bad news. Read on.

financialpost.com

Scrapped: How nearly $150 billion worth of energy projects have been shelved in Canada

A look at some of the major energy projects over the past few years that never saw the light of day

financialpost.com

VIDEO: Canada Has Seen $670 Billion in Cancelled or Suspended Natural Resource Projects Since 2015

Canada has seen hundreds of billions of dollars in cancelled or suspended natural resource projects over the past decade. Learn more about what this means for Canadians, and how natural resources can help turn our economy around.

www.canadaaction.ca

Herle wants to fight. Great. I suggest that part of our problems arise from Herle's underlying impulse to fight the US, on all fronts, even before the coming of Donald Trump.

We have Canadians that share the Ayatollah's vision of the US as the Great Satan.

...

Personally, I find myself more in tune with Tombe. I don't know if Trump is mad, incredibly bright, incredibly dumb, an autocrat or a figurehead. I do know that policies are changing and we are going to have to do something to nullify their effects.

As the Globe and Mail editorial suggested - we are being pressured to do stuff that we should have done long ago and had we done so then we would be much better placed to weather this set of policy changes.

I tend to agree with your positions here.

 

[FSTO]

Herle is a old time liberal from Saskatchewan, which is as rare as Palm trees on the shores of the South Saskatchewan River.

But the LPC is wedded to the Liberal World Order which allowed Canada to ignore foreign responsibilities and concentrate being the mayor of Toronto.
The idea of Canada getting the elbows up and not being the nice guy is totally off base to their sensibilities.

 

[QV]

Canada could do some things immediately to mitigate the looming economic impact (dropping interprovincial trade barriers, dropping obstacles to progress). But the big things we should have been doing all a long that might have avoided or at least lessoned this situation (2+% defence spending, pipelines in every direction, LNG terminals on coasts) would take many years to bear fruit. Couple all that with an ineffective and errant federal government and senior bureaucracy, we could be in big trouble and will feel the pain.

 

[Kirkhill]

Herle is a old time liberal from Saskatchewan, which is as rare as Palm trees on the shores of the South Saskatchewan River.

But the LPC is wedded to the Liberal World Order which allowed Canada to ignore foreign responsibilities and concentrate being the mayor of Toronto.
The idea of Canada getting the elbows up and not being the nice guy is totally off base to their sensibilities.

Unless it is to elbow the US?

Gordie Howe and his elbows were from Saskatchewan.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/gordie-howe-hockey-great-dies-b-c-friends-mourn-giants-vancouver-1.3629232

 

[The Bread Guy]

An aggressive economic nationalist. Purveyor of Liberal party doctrines. Ontario centric. Spoiling for a fight. Not overly receptive to Trevor Tombe's suggestion that Canada do "the other thing" and make itself more competitive.

Big disclaimer: haven't listened to this one yet, but I will and add to these points if I hear/see something causes me to rethink.

In the bigger picture, a podcast with a host with a point of view? Interviewing someone with a different one, and questioning them on it? He does wear his Martin-ite Team Red colours on his sleeve, but is he any different than other podcasters all over the political spectrum looking at the world wearing their particularly-coloured glasses? At least he interviews people with different viewpoints, and has the weekly get together with Team Blue & Team Orange partisans duking it out.

Jack Mintz: Canada has lost $225 billion in foreign investment since 2016

Ottawa boasts of large inflows of capital but outflows are even bigger and if Canadians prefer to invest elsewhere that's bad news. Read on.

financialpost.com

Scrapped: How nearly $150 billion worth of energy projects have been shelved in Canada

A look at some of the major energy projects over the past few years that never saw the light of day

financialpost.com

VIDEO: Canada Has Seen $670 Billion in Cancelled or Suspended Natural Resource Projects Since 2015

Canada has seen hundreds of billions of dollars in cancelled or suspended natural resource projects over the past decade. Learn more about what this means for Canadians, and how natural resources can help turn our economy around.

www.canadaaction.ca

Good bits of info these.

... Herle wants to fight. Great. I suggest that part of our problems arise from Herle's underlying impulse to fight the US, on all fronts, even before the coming of Donald Trump. We have Canadians that share the Ayatollah's vision of the US as the Great Satan ...

That's a lot of extrapolation from watching/listening to one podcast.

Some say we should stand up to a bully (like Russia against Ukraine), others say we should be doing what's being asked (go along to get along). The political reception Rorschach part comes with who's doing the asking, I guess.

 

[Good2Golf]

Standing up to a bully is one thing, continuing to antagonize a bully for nearly a decade while you do nothing to learn to fight in those years….then feigning surprise as he finally hauls back and punches you….well that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

 

[FSTO]

^^
Listen to the Curse of Politics.

Herle is the host, but he has a Liberal, Conservative, and Dipper strategists and they all have been SAVAGE towards Trudeau and his team for the past 2 years.

 

[The Bread Guy]

Standing up to a bully is one thing, continuing to antagonize a bully for nearly a decade while you do nothing to learn to fight in those years….then feigning surprise as he finally hauls back and punches you….well that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

Agree 1000% that a lot of stuff that's being talked about should have been done already, especially given the timeline of the same boss at the helm.

Say a lot of things about Bush Jr., Obama and Biden, but I think "bully" won't be the first term to come to mind to most people.

^^
Listen to the Curse of Politics.

Herle is the host, but he has a Liberal, Conservative, and Dipper strategists and they all have been SAVAGE towards Trudeau and his team for the past 2 years.

More than once, Herle's end-of-cast highlight (as well as his fellow Team Red'er) has been to tell JT to go, in fact.

Also, on occasion, he brings together former Chiefs of Staff for Red, Blue and Orange PM's/Premiers to discuss things from the point of view of those operators as well.

Ian Brodie – first Chief of Staff to Stephen Harper, and central to the founding of the CPC. Now … Professor of Political Science at the University of Calgary.

Tim Murphy – former Chief of Staff to Paul Martin. Now ... the newly installed EVP and Chief Strategic Affairs Officer at AECON.

Brian Topp – former Chief of Staff to Rachel Notley in Alberta, Deputy Chief to Roy Romanow in Saskatchewan, one of the architects of Jack Layton’s Orange Wave. Now ... he’s a founding partner at GT&co.

Latest episode of that combo here:

 

[Kirkhill]

Big disclaimer: haven't listened to this one yet, but I will and add to these points if I hear/see something causes me to rethink.

In the bigger picture, a podcast with a host with a point of view? Interviewing someone with a different one, and questioning them on it? He does wear his Martin-ite Team Red colours on his sleeve, but is he any different than other podcasters all over the political spectrum looking at the world wearing their particularly-coloured glasses? At least he interviews people with different viewpoints, and has the weekly get together with Team Blue & Team Orange partisans duking it out.

Good bits of info these.

That's a lot of extrapolation from watching/listening to one podcast.

Some say we should stand up to a bully (like Russia against Ukraine), others say we should be doing what's being asked (go along to get along). The political reception Rorschach part comes with who's doing the asking, I guess.

Fair comment. I admit to my own bias. Too many years of being told the good idea fairy has come up with yet another Wynne-Wynne proposal?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Fair comment. I admit to my own bias. Too many years of being told the good idea fairy has come up with yet another Wynne-Wynne proposal?

Can't blame you, and at least we're happy to admit it. What I try to do is recognize my bias, but not to let my filter close down so much that I miss the kernels of truth they have to offer. Nobody shares everything, but everybody shares something.

At least Herle wears his on his sleeve pretty prominently, as do many podcasters/commentators, but there's also those who claim to be "non-partisan" when they really ain't.

 

[OldSolduer]

Standing up to a bully is one thing, continuing to antagonize a bully for nearly a decade while you do nothing to learn to fight in those years….then feigning surprise as he finally hauls back and punches you….well that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone.

We as a nation have far too long felt morally superior and smarter than those damn Yankees....turns out we are not.

SO I expect all the American haters to stop vacationing anywhere in the USA. Stay at home vacation - in -30C and snow.

 

[Remius]

We as a nation have far too long felt morally superior and smarter than those damn Yankees....turns out we are not.

SO I expect all the American haters to stop vacationing anywhere in the USA. Stay at home vacation - in -30C and snow.

I know a lot that have. Most have aimed for Spain or the Dominican.

6 Surprising Reasons Why Canadians Aren’t Flocking to the USA Anymore – Blackjet. A Brand and Business Consultancy.

blackjet.ca

This from 2023

And more recently

Canadians less likely to travel to U.S. with Trump in office: poll

With a lot of uncertainty surrounding Inauguration Day and what president-elect Donald Trump‘s impact on Canadians will be, one thing is for sure: a new poll suggests Canadians — specifically Atlantic Canadians — will travel stateside less.

www.ctvnews.ca

But I bet our dollar value might have a big part to play in that decision making process.

 

[Good2Golf]

Yeah, 1.51 on some FOREX like in airports, etc. A noticeable part of my comp is in USD. It’s like getting a 50% raise, unless I want to vaycay in the Caribbean or visit family in the US, then it’s just par.

 

[Kirkhill]

Opinion: Hollering, coercion, and endless preening. It’s the art of the Trump deal

Alas, for Canada, there’s no walking away from Donald Trump’s trademark negotiation tactics

www.theglobeandmail.com

Opinion: Trump’s aggressive rhetoric aims to reset the narrative on Canada

Canadians are being redefined for MAGA as an existential insult, an offence against manifest destiny – about which something must be done

www.theglobeandmail.com

"Endless preening".

I reckon we might have a head start on that one.

We as a nation have far too long felt morally superior and smarter than those damn Yankees....turns out we are not.

...

according to research by the Cassandra Project, founded by University of Tübingen professor of comparative literature Jürgen Wertheimer, Mr. Trump and his acolytes are creating a new “social imaginary,”

In this symbolic, totalized world view, Canada is no longer the neighbour on the other side of the “longest undefended border.” Nor is it a perennial “free rider” on America’s military budget. Instead, Canadians, who as Mr. Trudeau had noted define themselves most easily as “not [being] American,” are being redefined for MAGA supporters as an existential insult, an offence against manifest destiny – about which something must be done.

...

I have difficulty with Trump ginning up another invasion a la 1775/1812/1845/1866/1870. I do believe that Trump wants to reset the narrative.

I can believe that he wants Americans to stop seeing Canadians as politer versions of themselves. May be even see Canadians as not a nice as we like to think we are. Make it easier to draw the line between us.

Does he want to make the border more or less distinct? Yes? Change opens up opportunities to renegotiate.

Perhaps Trump would prefer to see a Finland or a Switzerland on his northern border. Someone who takes their sovereignty seriously and acts accordingly. Someone who isn't a morally superior freeloader.

Perhaps he figures the only way he can jolt Canada into action is to present Canada with the prospect of the only threat Canada will take seriously. The US.

 

[Kirkhill]

Look inwards?

Opinion: The next prime minister’s growth plan must focus on homegrown innovation

Canada must break away from an economic model reliant on importing foreign ideas – such as electric vehicles – that allow other nations to use our resources as their innovation playground

www.theglobeandmail.com

Ann Fitz-Gerald is the director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs and a professor of international security in Wilfrid Laurier University’s department of political science. Paul Samson is the president of the Centre for International Governance Innovation.

Canada, once a beacon of affordability and innovation, now faces a cost-of-living crisis and stagnation. Like the American election last year, Canadians seek a compelling vision and plan that tackles paycheques and affordability head on. The next Canadian prime minister must not only articulate this vision but also outline a clear, actionable path to make it a reality.

Canada must adopt a clear economic strategy by treating the economy like a balance sheet and focusing on expanding the “pie” through growth while boosting paycheques. At the same time, a pro-competition agenda should drive down costs and give consumers more choice, creating a dynamic, thriving economy that motivates all Canadians.

Growing the economy must align with prosperity and national security goals. This demands leadership that champions the creation and export of high-value products that are competitive in the global market. Canada must break away from an economic model reliant on importing foreign ideas – such as electric vehicles – that tether us to long-term patent and royalty payments and allow other countries to use our resources as their innovation playground, undermining our sovereignty. A new leader must prioritize Canadian innovation, fostering a marketplace of ideas rooted in Canadian research centres and Canadian businesses, ensuring our economic future is driven by homegrown ingenuity.

The next prime minister’s growth strategy must embrace the reality of a world driven by intangibles, where more than 90 per cent of the S&P 500′s total value is tied to assets like data, algorithms, AI and cloud computing. Intellectual property (IP) and data are today’s most critical business assets, and machine learning is a transformative, general-purpose technology quickly reshaping all sectors. Canada missed the shift to an intangibles economy by failing to prioritize the creation and ownership of valuable IP, costing the economy billions annually. While countries like China and the U.S. secured their leadership in AI patents, Canada’s performance in this area has been in relative decline. Reversing this trend must be central to any credible economic plan.

Like the path to economic prosperity, the tools needed for Canada’s national security are increasingly data-driven and digital. Dual-use innovations will bolster traditional economic sectors and civilian jobs while enhancing national security, defence capabilities and the skills of our armed forces and broader security sector. Canada has previously neglected this integration, which is now essential. Meeting our NATO commitments will force us to go in this direction, which is a good thing.

A compelling economic plan which makes national security and economic security indistinguishable – supported by a pro-competition and high-value productivity agenda – is also necessary to navigate the objectives of the new U.S. administration, which will push to shift its defence focus to the Pacific, reduce commitments in Europe and prioritize technological superiority. In parallel, it will insist that Canada increase its defence spending and take on more Arctic security to defend the continent.

Delivering a new economic strategy requires robust sub-strategies. For example, in an intangibles-driven marketplace, trade negotiations are less about traditional goods and services and more about regulatory frameworks. To secure the most effective trade deals, Canada should build deep knowledge in expert advisory committees, similar to the 26 advisory groups, with more than 700 civilian experts long used by the U.S. government.

Canada’s roughly $10-billion in annual research funding must protect Canadian innovation and no longer be undermined by weak IP infrastructure. Additionally, a competitive tax code and streamlined infrastructure approvals processes are essential. Finally, prioritizing the global growth of Canadian firms and adopting sectoral strategies to develop dual-use, value-added products and services is critical to securing a prosperous economic future. Our next prime minister should understand these factors, and use them to fashion a new and compelling economic vision.

Kinda ....

Not big on the idea of employing idea experts. Bigger on the idea of letting Canadians take advantage of our access to multiple energy sources and, literally, a wealth of treasures held within our borders. Borders worth defending. Treasures worth trading.

 

[McG]

Trump says he wants Canada in the US. He has threatened tariffs and has said the path to ending those tariffs will be for Canada to join the US as a single new state. He has made speeches about expanding the size of US territory.
Take the lessons of history. When you substantially bigger neighbour’s leader starts pontificating about Lebensraum, you don’t apologize for him by arguing assumed benign intents.

 

[torg003]

Build a border wall.

 

[Fishbone Jones]

Opinion: Hollering, coercion, and endless preening. It’s the art of the Trump deal

Alas, for Canada, there’s no walking away from Donald Trump’s trademark negotiation tactics

www.theglobeandmail.com

Opinion: Trump’s aggressive rhetoric aims to reset the narrative on Canada

Canadians are being redefined for MAGA as an existential insult, an offence against manifest destiny – about which something must be done

www.theglobeandmail.com

"Endless preening".

I reckon we might have a head start on that one.



...




...

I have difficulty with Trump ginning up another invasion a la 1775/1812/1845/1866/1870. I do believe that Trump wants to reset the narrative.

I can believe that he wants Americans to stop seeing Canadians as politer versions of themselves. May be even see Canadians as not a nice as we like to think we are. Make it easier to draw the line between us.

Does he want to make the border more or less distinct? Yes? Change opens up opportunities to renegotiate.

Perhaps Trump would prefer to see a Finland or a Switzerland on his northern border. Someone who takes their sovereignty seriously and acts accordingly. Someone who isn't a morally superior freeloader.

Perhaps he figures the only way he can jolt Canada into action is to present Canada with the prospect of the only threat Canada will take seriously. The US.

Things to remember the next time they want us to proxy for them in places like Haiti or join a Coalition of the Willing for something like Afghanistan. Mind, I don't think with his aversion to wars, we have to worry about the later.

As far as a reset, I agree. I'll take a stab at the reason. Possibly he wants us to become a stronger nation. Kind or a tough love sorta thing. He watched both biden and trudeau take us down the path of financial ruin, open borders and unlimited immigration. Giving support and citizenship to illegal aliens, the destruction of our oil and gas as well as other resources. On and on and on.

I've said a number of times here, that the US would never accept a socialist, a marxist or a WEF country on their border. Perhaps he just wants to see a proper democracy here. Something that a mass majority of Canadian also want, but we just can't bring ourselves to care enough to put the root of the problem in jail. We watched our government bring us to the precipice of total ruin, bankruptcy and third world conditions. We did nothing. Lackadaisical, disinterested, weak or afraid. Someone else can figure our psyche.

He doesn't like the amount of Chinese influence the Laurentien Elites have allowed in Canada. Something our governments keep investigating but do SFA about. He has his own Chinese problems, but he and state governments are do something about it. We aren't.

We got a whole list of shit we need to sort out for ourselves. We have to show we are dead serious about fixing it. Which is what should be at the top of the agenda. Not strutting our puffery talking tit for tat on tariffs and angering the bear. He wants a strong democracy on his north. Someone to depend on.

And we need people that know how to negotiate with someone like him. We're getting ourselves all wrapped up in his rhetoric, which he does by design, giving him the upper hand at the very start of trade negotiations. His style has already led to future talks and deals over Greenland, he has Panama shitting their pants. And Canada? Wobbling around and saying 'oh yeah, well, well....oh yeah?' everytime he says something about us.

Saying we'll cut off liquor sales from the US and throttle our electricity going south just plays directly into his hands and strengthens his case with the US population.

I'll stop rambling. This is all my own theories and daydreaming. I don't profess to know if it's plausible or not.

 

[GR66]

Things to remember the next time they want us to proxy for them in places like Haiti or join a Coalition of the Willing for something like Afghanistan. Mind, I don't think with his aversion to wars, we have to worry about the later.

Peace keeping coalition for Panama? Greenland?