Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[KevinB]

We might be getting fixated on ‘numbers so far’ and are forgetting that there are likely more numbers to come - and big ones - for major acquisitions. June 2025 announcements will likely not form the entirety of what’s forecast for a March 2026 target.

Given how the CAF runs programs, forgive me for not exactly holding my breath.

 

[GR66]

Honestly outputs are the only true measure

Which is why many countries aren’t too keen on the %of GDP and NATO has other criteria.
Some of which aren’t OS.

This.

There may be a bunch of arguing over whether our 2% is actually a legitimate 2% or not once all the final numbers come out at the end of the fiscal year but at the end of the day if the US and the rest of NATO see the CAF significantly increasing its combat effectiveness as a result of the new policies I don't think anyone will make a stink about it.

However, if at the end of the day if through our smoke and mirrors we claim to have met our 2% goal but all we have to show for it is higher pay for our military and better housing but no discernable increase in our combat readiness and capability then we'll be called out on our BS.

 

[Kirkhill]

Keir and Mark are joined at the hip....

We are already on track for a state that consumes 44 per cent of GDP, and that is if everything goes according to Reeves’s “plan”. In reality, 50 per cent is only a bad by-election defeat away.

Nine months ago, when Reeves was brand new in the job, we had been lectured by the likes of Mark Carney that she was a brilliant economist; her party had just won a huge majority at the general election. The bond markets were willing, perfectly understandably, to give her the benefit of the doubt. This time around it will be very different.

The reaction of the markets to her numbers was a polite yawn, but the price that the UK has to pay to borrow money has been steadily ticking higher for months. It is still climbing. The markets won’t get fooled by Reeves’s rhetoric again. In reality, the UK is stuck with a Chancellor who no longer has any credibility left with investors. We are all paying a price for that in higher interest rates – and they will only keep on climbing over what looks set to be a very rocky summer.

The markets won’t be fooled by Rachel Reeves again

The Chancellor has no credibility left with investors: interest rates will keep rising

www.telegraph.co.uk

....

Mark might want to consider letting us make money rather than shutting down productive industries.

 

[QV]

I would expect the same from any Canadian political party.

The populace doesn’t hold them to task.

The conditions are far different now than under the last CPC government. I would have preferred to give the CPC a chance, rather than another LPC.

 

[Humphrey Bogart]

Given how the CAF runs programs, forgive me for not exactly holding my breath.

I've seen this same song and dance play out multiple times, as have you.

I'm skeptical of these latest announcements.

Carney may seem like the messiah/second coming of Jesus christ but....

He is up against pretty significant forces of political inertia and a powerful bureaucracy.


How many times have we seen Politicians come in and make a big splash only to run in to a wall? The Harper Government faced similar issues.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I'm skeptical of these latest announcements.

I think some things will happen. Pay raise, some investment in infrastructure perhaps.

I wont hold my breath on much else.

Happy to be wrong.

 

[Kirkhill]

Why am I posting this British economics news in this thread about increasing the money for Canadian defence?

Because "20%".

But the truly dreadful number is that 45.3 per cent of adults of working age are net recipients (of state benefits). In a civilised society, the vast majority would be independent from the state: productivity, wages and savings would be higher, more would pay for their own (VAT-free) health and education and the vast majority would own their home. This would require a buoyant economy, driven by supply-side reforms, deregulation, free trade, entrepreneurship and a flat tax.

There would be no direct route from immigration to welfare and council houses, and we wouldn’t serve as the world’s welfare state of last resort.

Citizens and long-term residents who have contributed and truly need help would be given it, with clear incentives not to become stuck on benefits. Except for a small minority truly unable to look after itself, perhaps because of severe ill-health, disability, caring responsibilities or catastrophic bad luck, assistance would come in the form of a hand-up, not a hand-out. That is not even remotely close to today’s dystopian reality of a record 6.4 million UK adults on out-of-work benefits, an abominable failure.

Even the 52.6 per cent statistic for net recipients underestimates the scale of the problem. It doesn’t include public sector workers, who depend entirely on taxpayers, and those who work for state-subsidised “charities”, NGOs or other bodies entirely or largely dependent on government contracts, subsidies and handouts. A full measure of those who are paid more by the state (directly or indirectly) than they contribute to the Exchequer would suggest a society that is no longer meaningfully capitalist.

Don’t listen to those who accuse Reeves of promoting austerity. She is squeezing some parts of the state but the overall direction of travel is towards socialism. There are 6.15 million public sector employees (as of March), according to the official definition, up 7,000 compared with December 2024, and up 35,000 on March 2024; all of these people have a class interest in redistribution and growing the size of the state. I doubt the reannounced administrative cuts, which could see departmental administration budgets drop by 16 per cent on average by 2029-30, will ever happen.

Labour is doing what it always does: laying waste to the private sector while growing the public sector. Our only real wealth comes from private enterprise,

It is now too late for Britain to avoid financial Armageddon

Rachel Reeves is the Chancellor that lazy, feckless Britain deserves

www.telegraph.co.uk

The bit the article gets wrong is that Canada and Britain have been following the same policy prescription since at least 2015 under both the British Tories and Labour. Immigration. Energy. Defence. Financing. No difference in policy. No difference in outcome.

....

Why can the government afford to give everybody in uniform a 20% wage increase? Because it comes from the same pot that hired thousands of bureaucrats and provided benefits to millions of unemployed and students.

To be blunt, I don't begrudge the wage increase but I would have been happier with a 20% increase in the number of troops.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Interesting so a net CAF Reg Force growth of 1230 pers. Better than I expected but…

If we are only 13,000ish short, that’s about a decade till we are at our current authorized strength. Another decade to add the new positions we are looking at.

Depends, I thought that I read somewhere from the CDS that they are doing all they can to expand intake throughput now. Also, a 20% pay raise, a recession and more money/resources on the intake side should reduce that decade to maybe 4/5yrs.

 

[KevinB]

Depends, I thought that I read somewhere from the CDS that they are doing all they can to expand intake throughput now. Also, a 20% pay raise, a recession and more money/resources on the intake side should reduce that decade to maybe 4/5yrs.

I think your PM is going to make some changes inside the CAF and DND based on the various people who says he doesn’t suffer fools.

So the brightest 0-6 to 0-8’s may get a fast track and if that also occurs in the PS you may find that the CAF is net positive inside 18months.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

As we discussed earlier the 2.5B with the CCG is not even new money or allowed under the NATO 2% without a massive shift in the make up and training of the CCG, that would take decades to implement.

T’is but a crock of shit

Bold of you to assume the Liberal Party would not liberally lie through their teeth in order to make tons of announcements/reannouncements and much later, very quietly retract/qualify them on some webpage hardly anyone reads.

 

[KevinB]

Bold of you to assume the Liberal Party would not liberally lie through their teeth in order to make tons of announcements/reannouncements and much later, very quietly retract/qualify them on some webpage hardly anyone reads.

I have zero faith in ANY Political Party - in Canada or elsewhere.

I do have some faith in certain Politicians - if just to do what they are comfortable with.
Your PM has come from an arena where idiots generally are cut loose quickly.
I suspect he will let any politician, PS or Military member go with no remorse, that he feels will hurt his chance for success.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I've seen this same song and dance play out multiple times, as have you.

I'm skeptical of these latest announcements.

Carney may seem like the messiah/second coming of Jesus christ but....

He is up against pretty significant forces of political inertia and a powerful bureaucracy.


How many times have we seen Politicians come in and make a big splash only to run in to a wall? The Harper Government faced similar issues.

I was telling my wife, the reason so many people seemed impressed with Carney is that he is a average quality PM, but because of the long stint of suffering under JT, people have forgotten what a day to day average quality PM looks like.

 

[Sub Standard]

20% raise would be see an extra $1800 a month Gross for a Capt 4. That's an extra $1300 for a Cpl 4 Basic.

I would be floored to see that kind of a raise....

With a follow on decrease in CFHD payments but at least it will be pensionable.

 

[Halifax Tar]

With a follow on decrease in CFHD payments but at least it will be pensionable.

I didnt take CFHD. It wasn't was the peanuts for me to give DND/CAF my mortgage information.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Anyone else think that having the SK's at the G7 might be related to us signing a CAF contract with them, either subs only or subs and arty or arty only?
I also think that HIMARS contract might be announced at the same time/place. Couple that is a new trade understanding that Carney/Trump are working on.

 

[CountDC]

Question(s)
1) What is the lead time that is required for a release to occur - meaning, is a RegF person required to give 1yr lead time, 6months lead time, 1 month lead time?
2) Since the LPC leadership campaign/election, knowing that the timeframe is very short, is there any indications that outflow of RegF has slowed, sped up or stayed the same?
3) Any chance of getting a high level summary of the # of years in uniform for the 5,770 RegF individuals? Ever at a level of 1-5yrs = X, 5-15yrs = Y, 15+yrs = Z

1. Normal time line is 6 months but if you have enough time in you could fall under the 30/30 plan. Fastest I have seen is 2 weeks for a release from the RegF.
2. No idea as the impact wouldn't show in the stats I see yet.
3. Doesn't show #of yrs but some numbers totaling 3783 are below that give an idea. The most interesting is the Pte level releases as we recently talked about an issue in training timelines at work. It was mentioned that some are taking releases as they sit on pat long periods waiting for trade training.

Pte (R) 738
Pte (B) 409
Pte 167
Cpl 1204
MCpl 662
Sgt 603

Checked the releases in progress and it shows there are 4902.

This FY so far reflects 364 enrolments and 1068 offers. Something I never looked at before was the drop off stats. We have a number that are apparently lost at each stage for unknown reasons. For example at the beginning out of 1279 prospects that dropped out 1102 reflect as "no further contact". Out of 166 reaching medical/interview completed that dropped out 54 reflect "no further contact".

On the bright side there are apparently 38k+ files in progress, just need to change the system so we can get them in the door.

I should add to note - it does have the disclaimer of "Numbers TBC" on the site as there is always the possibility of human/program error.

 

[Quirky]

On the bright side there are apparently 38k+ files in progress, just need to change the system so we can get them in the door.

Does that number include anyone who tossed in an application online?

 

[Haggis]

Your PM has come from an arena where idiots generally are cut loose quickly.
I suspect he will let any politician, PS or Military member go with no remorse, that he feels will hurt his chance for success.

The question is, how does Carney, a non-career politician with solid and profitable employment prospects outside of politics, define "success"? Is it getting re-elected/staying in power as PM? Is is setting the conditions for the return of Trudeau in 2029? Or is it really making Canada better and stronger and by that, in the context of this thread, I mean actually living up to his defense promises within his mandate?

 

[Fishbone Jones]

The proof is in the pudding. Carney has been long on promises and plans, but not so much on implementation or action. It's amazing, being such a financial whiz, that he can make promises to spend billions when he doesn't even have a budget. Something sorely needed to determine how our meager, moth filled purse can handle these huge expenditures.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The proof is in the pudding. Carney has been long on promises and plans, but not so much on implementation or action. It's amazing, being such a financial whiz, that he can make promises to spend billions when he doesn't even have a budget. Something sorely needed to determine how our meager, moth filled purse can handle these huge expenditures.

I think we need at least a year to make that call.

But he is following the time honored LPC tradition of delivering announcements.

#otherpoplesexpectations