Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[Maxman1]

Global sentiment and political will met and now we're seeing its consequences. That and Carney is much more of a Wilfred Laurier or MacKenzie King Liberal, both of whom were conservative on nationalistic issues.

MacKenzie King tried to keep us out of the war, and tried to restrict us to convoy escort and bomber command.

62-63 was John Diefenbaker

Yes, and? That list jumps from 1962 to 1969, I think it's reasonable to suspect the reductions sometime happened after the 1963 election (many of the big changes were in 1968, such as the disbanding of the Canadian Guards).

When GDP hit a local maximum. How odd.

The denominator matters. No-one should simply look at "% of GDP", especially for defence spending which is based on long-term planning windows. If we're going to do "2%" it will have to be relatively consistent, which should mean planning to go above 2% so that we remain at 2% if GDP surges.

For example, between 2014 and 2015, the dollar amount didn't change, but the percentage decreased.

 

[Remius]

Has anyone bothered to ask the Coast Guard what they think of this?

As in the organisation or the people that work there?

I'm wondering how many of these civil servants may decide to simply vote with their feet.

Mobility in the PS isn’t the greatest right now. Just saying.

I suspect that a lot of them if they wanted to be in the Navy they would have joined the Navy.
Guess we'll find out.

I don’t think they will be becoming NAVY.

 

[Kirkhill]

So exactly one of those tricks that has us furious already.

I mean for fucks sakes.

By all means play whatever games with the 1.5% after you hit 3.5%. But the games and bullshit to even try to pretend about 2%

Childish

If this then pipelines.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Exactly. And the longer they are allowed to be prize pigs, the more prize some become.

Sure, but that's not on the individual to fix if the institution isn't setting up enough people to have that kind of mentoring etc. 'Tell a friend' is a lot harder now that people are matrixed into things all over the country and a lot of it virtually. They've cut a lot of travel so you can't even go in person most of the times to have those discussions in person and explain the 'why'.

 

[Brad Sallows]

Sure, but that's not on the individual to fix if the institution isn't setting up enough people to have that kind of mentoring etc. 'Tell a friend' is a lot harder now that people are matrixed into things all over the country and a lot of it virtually. They've cut a lot of travel so you can't even go in person most of the times to have those discussions in person and explain the 'why'.

Agreed. The very few times I had occasion to share my opinion, it was about moving someone along - different responsibilities, not released or fired - so that someone else could occupy the slot, for their benefit and the organization's. Some people dig in and get snotty if they think their experience translates into clout. My recommendation was always to eat the risk and move them. It's only really necessary to do it once as long as someone is still around later on who can recount to others what happened the last time.

 

[rnkelly]

Transcript from:

Station: CFRB AM (Newstalk 1010)

Program: Jim Richards Show

"HUTTON: How much goes into personnel? Because I think most of us in the country think first and foremost of our personnel, of our men and women.

MCGUINTY: Well, you're absolutely right, Deb. It's a big part of our-- at the front end, it is the beginning. It's about a 20% pay increase, immediately for our members, we're going to be looking at operationalizing this idea. In fact, I'm meeting with my Deputy Minister later today. That's a very big part, because we want to recruit and retain, we have to recruit and retain another 13,000 members, 6,500 in the reserves and 6,500 in the regular forces. So, beyond that, it's also going to be about, investing in core things. Health care, childcare, housing in our bases, technology, Wi-Fi, joining school boards, for example, and helping from time to time with setting up classrooms and teaching for folks on the basis. So, it's going to be a very, very, granular series of investments, Deb, to help our frontline Canadian Armed Forces members, because we can't really ask them to come in and, you know, to get recruited and retained if we're not going to treat them well, and this is exactly what we're trying to do."

Hopefully, we get more details in the near future.

https://www.infomedia.gc.ca/forces/en/2025/6/11/259976655

Does this not strike anyone as a flippant thing for the minister to say in this way at that venue? He’s not exactly managing expectations very well, hope he delivers but seems premature if he hasn’t dotted his i’s or crossed his t’s. We’ll see I guess, I hope my pessimism is proven wrong.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Agreed. The very few times I had occasion to share my opinion, it was about moving someone along - different responsibilities, not released or fired - so that someone else could occupy the slot, for their benefit and the organization's. Some people dig in and get snotty if they think their experience translates into clout. My recommendation was always to eat the risk and move them. It's only really necessary to do it once as long as someone is still around later on who can recount to others what happened the last time.

I'm in a weird niche specialty where I think I may be one of the only ones in the CAF (along with a few DND civilians) but it's in a pretty relevant life safety area as well as some combat recoverability for ships.

I'd love to pass along a lot of that SME knowledge, but there is no one else in the pipeline so aside from the odd sidebar probably going to get lost at some point. The folks I learned from are pretty much retired or gone, so a lot of it we're just paying a lot of other people to do, or relearning expensive lessons for things we've already gone through.

 

[MilEME09]

Related Davie is buying a shipyard in Texas

Quebec-based Davie Shipbuilding announces plans to buy Texas shipyards

Davie says it expects the acquisition to be finalized by the end of this summer – despite cross-border trade tensions

www.theglobeandmail.com

 

[childs56]

Related Davie is buying a shipyard in Texas

Quebec-based Davie Shipbuilding announces plans to buy Texas shipyards

Davie says it expects the acquisition to be finalized by the end of this summer – despite cross-border trade tensions

www.theglobeandmail.com

Davie is buying market share to compete in the larger world market. Great strategy on their part. Hope they can pull it off.

 

[Underway]

Does this not strike anyone as a flippant thing for the minister to say in this way at that venue? He’s not exactly managing expectations very well, hope he delivers but seems premature if he hasn’t dotted his i’s or crossed his t’s. We’ll see I guess, I hope my pessimism is proven wrong.

Would you prefer a less granular and more circumspect classic politician response?

"Well were looking at a lot of options to maximize investment and reduce waste, while not raising taxing and increasing lethality through modularity and networking, with a continuous focus on our people to get them the right equipment at the right time."

CFRB 1010 is a generally conservative leaning radio station, so the content and information was probably targeted at those soft Conservative voters or Red Tories.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Yeah but then you're stuck in the "If you give a mouse a cookie...." trap:

Those MMO folks would have then asked for kit, and salary, and lodging, and training spots, and numerous other things we had no forethought or desire to stockpile. We only had what we had for our "authorized strength" at any time.

We were terrible at mobilization then, and still suck at it now.

At first glance I thought that said “Give a Moose a Cookie…”, and I pondered that over a rye and coke.

 

[Cloud Cover]

I don’t think they will be becoming NAVY.

Then we are also kicking them out of the YMCA.
IYKYK

 

[rmc_wannabe]

At first glance I thought that said “Give a Moose a Cookie…”, and I pondered that over a rye and coke.

I've been a dad for too long....

If You Give a Mouse a Cookie - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[QV]

So exactly one of those tricks that has us furious already.

I mean for fucks sakes.

By all means play whatever games with the 1.5% after you hit 3.5%. But the games and bullshit to even try to pretend about 2%

Childish

This is entirely expected out of the LPC. Applauded by many. Shameful.

 

[KevinB]

This is entirely expected out of the LPC. Applauded by many. Shameful.

I would expect the same from any Canadian political party.

The populace doesn’t hold them to task.

 

[Fabius]

So from various articles it seems the highest estimates are an increase of 9.3 Billion.
2.6 Billion for pay and benefits
2 Billion for security cooperation with Ukraine
2.5 Billion coming across from the Cdn Coast Guard?

About 2.2 Billion unaccounted for DND to expend on increased capability.
Actually not much really.

 

[KevinB]

So from various articles it seems the highest estimates are an increase of 9.3 Billion.
2.6 Billion for pay and benefits
2 Billion for security cooperation with Ukraine
2.5 Billion coming across from the Cdn Coast Guard?

About 2.2 Billion unaccounted for DND to expend on increased capability.
Actually not much really.

As we discussed earlier the 2.5B with the CCG is not even new money or allowed under the NATO 2% without a massive shift in the make up and training of the CCG, that would take decades to implement.

T’is but a crock of shit

 

[Czech_pivo]

For example, between 2014 and 2015, the dollar amount didn't change, but the percentage decreased.

If Inflation moves up 2% yoy and your GDP grows 2% yoy on top of that, be default you'll need to move your defense spending corresponding up yoy if you want to keep this 2% spending target. The 3rd leg of this stool is the FX rate between CAD/USD. How can you manage this one? You can't, just like you really can't manage the other 2 legs of the stool. You can hypothesize, but in the end its really on a 'best guess' basis.

But if keeping the dollar amount the same yoy and you have 2% inflation and 2% GDP growth and the FX rate between CAD/USD is constant, then you'll have a decrease in % greater than a 2% fall in overall

If your GDP falls 3%, inflation sits at 1% and the CAD strengthens by 4% over the USD, then magically you can actually have your defense spending fall by 2% and your overall % would increase!

 

[KevinB]

If Inflation moves up 2% yoy and your GDP grows 2% yoy on top of that, be default you'll need to move your defense spending corresponding up yoy if you want to keep this 2% spending target. The 3rd leg of this stool is the FX rate between CAD/USD. How can you manage this one? You can't, just like you really can't manage the other 2 legs of the stool. You can hypothesize, but in the end its really on a 'best guess' basis.

But if keeping the dollar amount the same yoy and you have 2% inflation and 2% GDP growth and the FX rate between CAD/USD is constant, then you'll have a decrease in % greater than a 2% fall in overall

If your GDP falls 3%, inflation sits at 1% and the CAD strengthens by 4% over the USD, then magically you can actually have your defense spending fall by 2% and your overall % would increase!

Honestly outputs are the only true measure

Which is why many countries aren’t too keen on the %of GDP and NATO has other criteria.
Some of which aren’t OS.

 

[brihard]

We might be getting fixated on ‘numbers so far’ and are forgetting that there are likely more numbers to come - and big ones - for major acquisitions. June 2025 announcements will likely not form the entirety of what’s forecast for a March 2026 target.