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Israeli strikes on Iran (2024, 2025, etc.)

Yuck.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934253077789311327

The Bread Guy said:
A bit of an evolution, it seems - this from Friday ...
www.ynetnews.com

Iranian political leadership is not a target of Israel's strikes, NSC chief says

'We have no plans to kill them," Tzahi Hanegbi says in a television interview; the National Security Council chief says Israel aims to make Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions
www.ynetnews.com www.ynetnews.com

Also, this from the U.S. Deal Maker in Chief, via his socials:
www.rferl.org

Trump Says Peace Deal Could 'Easily' Be Done As Israel, Iran Continue Air Attacks

Civilians in both Israel and Iran sought cover as waves of air strikes hit major cities late on June 14 and early on June 15, with the latest armed conflict between the archenemies showing no signs of easing despite international calls for peace.
www.rferl.org www.rferl.org
View attachment 93954
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I'd say it's still somewhat murky.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934290780266418542

brihard said:
Something we don’t have a feel for is Israel’s stock of interceptors of various classes.

It sounds like Israe has air dominance over western Iran, and that helps. However I expect Iran still has a lot it can launch from farther east, largely out of range of Israel’s Air Force. Iran has to have considered survivability for this context. So, is Iran safeguarding the ability to continue to launch large volleys including some more difficult to intercept missiles later? Are they degrading Israel’s interceptor stocks enough to matter? And, if the balance does shift towards some degree of interceptor exhaustion, can Iran hit enough of anything that matters? Slamming missiles into suburbs will piss people off, but it won’t improve the strategic position much.

Meanwhile, Israel seems to have a very free hand to hit things in western Iran that do matter, militarily and economically. Satellite and ground imagery appear to show at least a couple hits at the Ahvaz oil field. That’s a huge vulnerability for Iran; if Israel were to hit Iran’s oil export infrastructure - and it seems to be well in range - that could be a huge problem for the regime.

Obviously everybody else is going to be trying to simmer this down, but I don’t think Israel has any interest in outsiders who think that can keep Iran gripped at this point. They’ll keep going so long as it remains in their strategic interest to.

Things I’m watching for outside of continued military objectives:
  • U.S. entry into the fight, likely via strategic bombing on sites like Fordow that Israel will struggle to hit. The U.S. may decide the best way out of this is to forge the whole way through and complete the defensible Israel objective of decisively destroying Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Conversely, direct Iranian targeting of U.S. forces. This would be dumb.
  • Israeli targeting of Khamenei. This would signal a regime change objective and would likely be accompanied by a ton of influence ops and targeted economic hits. Reporting today claims the US already ‘vetoed’ such a proposed hit. Can’t assess the accuracy of that.
  • Wider attacks on Iranian economic targets. Oil distribution facilities and pipelines. Kharg island, etc.
  • Domestic Iranian popular unrest; if the population comes to feel that the regime has taken them down a path they can’t sustain and seeks governmental change, that could be a challenge for the government.
  • Iranian proxy bullshit. I’m surprised at how quiet this has been so far, notwithstanding how bad Hezbollah got smoked. Iran still has a huge network overseas and we may see a quiet shadow war between them and Israel/US.
  • Israeli establishment of any fixed ground presence; seizing a western Iranian airfield as a FOB, or anything like that- very unlikely I think, but a not-impossible wildcard that would really shift the tone of this. I don’t think Israel has the ability to do this with an acceptable risk tolerance, but I could absolutely be wrong.
Israel seems very confident, operating in broad daylight over Iran. They have a distinct advantage in the ability to kill proplr and break stuff. Can they ride that to victory in a meaningful strategic sense? We can reasonably assume Israel’s end state includes substantial destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but does it go beyond that? I don’t know.
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MilEME09 said:
It's been noted in 3 days iran has fires some 290 large MRBM/IRBMs, in their strike in October 2024 they launched 201 in a single night. Could this be reduced launch capacity after the Israeli first strike? Or are they saving capability?
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brihard said:
Probably some of both. I imagine the Israeli Air Force is hunting launch sites or vehicles fiercely.
Click to expand...

Seems like there are moves being made for deeper strikes. Also we're now up to ~50 missiles today, Israel's strategy of hunting down launchers appears to be working.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934317835565552053
https://twitter.com/x/status/1934271621562237029
https://twitter.com/x/status/1934321586892386764
https://twitter.com/x/status/1934315371617509550
 
Regime change is on the menu.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934299414136267040

We reported tonight on Channel 14:

A significant escalation — Israel is now actively working to destabilize the Iranian regime through a newly approved strike plan authorized by Defense Minister Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu.

As part of the operation, regime targets in Tehran will now be attacked, accompanied by the mass evacuation of civilians from those areas as a means of applying pressure on the regime, in response to attacks on the Israeli home front.

The plan is designed to trigger a mass exodus of civilians from Tehran and serves as a powerful lever of pressure on the regime — in a way that could destabilize it. In this context, Defense Minister Katz's statement today can be understood as a message to Khamenei: “Tehran will be treated like Beirut.

”Today, in a meeting held by the Defense Minister in the command bunker with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir and the IDF General Staff, the operational details of the plan were finalized. The IDF Spokesperson issued its first Arabic-language announcement calling on civilians to evacuate areas near weapons sites in Tehran.

A security official told Channel 14 News: “Each day the plan will intensify and produce results. Today we struck the Iranian Ministry of Defense — additional targets will be attacked soon.”
Click to expand...
 
Just out, with summary to 0600E

Institute for the Study of War

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org
"Key Takeaways
  • The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
  • A US weapons expert reported on June 15 that, if Israel does not render the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) inoperable, then Iran would be able to produce enough weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for nine nuclear weapons by the end of the first month using its pre-attack 60% enriched uranium stockpile.
  • The IDF has also targeted several military and defense industrial sites outside Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
  • Israel expanded its ongoing strike campaign against Iran on June 14 by attacking critical Iranian energy infrastructure.
  • Iran has conducted two waves of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel from Iranian territory since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
  • The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers, which is likely limiting the scale of the Iranian response to Israel."
 

Attachments

HavokFour said:
A report that Israel is currently in the process of striking Iran's most important (and underground) enrichment site, Fordow. Does Israel have the capability? From my understanding that facility is deep, deep underground.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934359734691246297
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MilEME09 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1934378992976679138

Your hammer may have swung
Click to expand...

I’m blown away that they have the legs to be hitting Mashhad repeatedly. Not as blown away as the Iranians I guess… But how the hell they’ve made repeat hits they eludes me. They have to be tanking over Iran.

The Fordow hits- most importantly, what weight of shot can they put into the place? That’s deeply, deeply buried. The common wisdom has been that it would take the U.S. with B2s to do the job using their largest penetrators. Have they joined in, or does Israel have another previously unknown capability? Or something else?
 
brihard said:
The Fordow hits- most importantly, what weight of shot can they put into the place? That’s deeply, deeply buried. The common wisdom has been that it would take the U.S. with B2s to do the job using their largest penetrators. Have they joined in, or does Israel have another previously unknown capability? Or something else?
Click to expand...


More of the same from Trump, for now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934389098833187198
 
brihard said:
I’m blown away that they have the legs to be hitting Mashhad repeatedly. Not as blown away as the Iranians I guess… But how the hell they’ve made repeat hits they eludes me. They have to be tanking over Iran.

The Fordow hits- most importantly, what weight of shot can they put into the place? That’s deeply, deeply buried. The common wisdom has been that it would take the U.S. with B2s to do the job using their largest penetrators. Have they joined in, or does Israel have another previously unknown capability? Or something else?
Click to expand...
Judging by the precise hits to the airbase that was struck. Dead center of the hangers, likely using laser guided GBU-28s or paveway 3s


https://twitter.com/x/status/1934205212274597957

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934401061638283580
 
SupersonicMax said:
“Hello, MilEME09? Yeah, the 90s want their weapons back.”

GPS/INS weapons against fixed targets are preferred, as it offers a lot more standoff than LGBs.
Click to expand...
Im just going off what I can Google, and when it comes to bunker busters, the GBU28 Isreal was using last year in Lebanon so it was a logical guess for me.
 
SupersonicMax said:
“Hello, MilEME09? Yeah, the 90s want their weapons back.”

GPS/INS weapons against fixed targets are preferred, as it offers a lot more standoff than LGBs.
Click to expand...
I have no idea what can be dropped from aircraft anymore...

But whatever it is I hope Israel keeps on dropping them...or guiding or maybe wizardry....
 
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