The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[Czech_pivo]

With GCAP full and France looking like it wants to go alone again maybe Sweden, Germany and Spain could use a Canadian partner?

Well it’s looking like France and Germany may be buying the Globaleye off Sweden, so a framework between the 3 will be in place. If we buy Globaleye, which is quite possible because of the Bombardier angle, we could be the forth.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Assuming the numbers are roughly equal in regards to what is included, a Gripen over 8,000hrs (lifetime of a F35) at $7,000 per flight hour is going to cost 56,000,000 to fly, a F35 at $36,000 is going to cost 288,000,000 in the same timeframe.

You could equip the Snowbirds and 1 other squadron with Gripen's for deployments in more permissive areas and keep the F35's for the higher end stuff. Lets say 25 aircraft total. You could be saving $5,000,000,000 over the 8,000hr lifespan of the aircraft. The fleet would look like 53 xF35 and 25x Gripens. You keep the Snowbirds, which is very much the public face of the RCAF and CAF, get them a modern, combat capable jet if required.

Why stick with only 88 airframes when we all know that the number is too low given attrition over 25yrs.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

With GCAP full and France looking like it wants to go alone again maybe Sweden, Germany and Spain could use a Canadian partner?

Or may be sign-on with South Korea and their KF-21.

 

[suffolkowner]

Or may be sign-on with South Korea and their KF-21.

I heard they were full too with Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

 

[Rainbow1910]

Assuming the numbers are roughly equal in regards to what is included, a Gripen over 8,000hrs (lifetime of a F35) at $7,000 per flight hour is going to cost 56,000,000 to fly, a F35 at $36,000 is going to cost 288,000,000 in the same timeframe.

You could equip the Snowbirds and 1 other squadron with Gripen's for deployments in more permissive areas and keep the F35's for the higher end stuff. Lets say 25 aircraft total. You could be saving $5,000,000,000 over the 8,000hr lifespan of the aircraft. The fleet would look like 53 xF35 and 25x Gripens. You keep the Snowbirds, which is very much the public face of the RCAF and CAF, get them a modern, combat capable jet if required.

I don't believe for a minute that it costs only $7,000 per flight hour for a Gripen E, especially given Saab is notorious for not releasing much information and "flight hours" can be easily modified to make them as flattering as one wants.

 

[dapaterson]

Why stick with only 88 airframes when we all know that the number is too low given attrition over 25yrs.

buying into an ongoing production program like the JSF means that, as attrition occurs, you buy in to the line for replacements.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I heard they were full too with Arabia and the UAE?

According to Wikipedia the two countries are in talks with South Korea about buying into the program.

 

[suffolkowner]

According to Wikipedia the two countries are in talks with South Korea about buying into the program.

buy some subs and buy our way into a fighter jet program?

 

[KevinB]

I don't believe for a minute that it costs only $7,000 per flight hour for a Gripen E, especially given Saab is notorious for not releasing much information and "flight hours" can be easily modified to make them as flattering as one wants.

It all depends what one considers a flight hour.
A lot of the F-35 costs have average ordnance expenditures, and the infrastructure to house them.

It isn't as comparable as blade hours are counted for vertical lift (albeit some countries skew their AH costs with ordnance as well).

 

[Czech_pivo]

buying into an ongoing production program like the JSF means that, as attrition occurs, you buy in to the line for replacements.

Did we do that at any time, any time, with the CF18’s?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I don't believe for a minute that it costs only $7,000 per flight hour for a Gripen E, especially given Saab is notorious for not releasing much information and "flight hours" can be easily modified to make them as flattering as one wants.

Oh I don't take them as gospel, and hence why I qualified my post. Keep in mind they are marketing them to politicians, who generally make the final choice. However. If there is a substantial savings on equalized flight hours on the two fleets, it may very well make good fiscal sense to have a two aircraft fighter fleet, even if it costs us some more training dollars.

This does not take into account dealing with costs involving infrastructure, security and ITAR issues around the F35. So there may be savings there as well.
If you are bombing Taliban or the like, you don't need a top end aircraft, and with the expeditionary nature of our military, which is a distinct possibility. If you have to forward base F35 to support a UN mission to keep the Lord Resistance Army or such in check. The security requirements might be eye watering expensive.

 

[dapaterson]

Did we do that at any time, any time, with the CF18’s?

Production line shut down a quarter century ago.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Production line shut down a quarter century ago.

Yes I’m aware of that. Did we replace any from 1982 to 2000?

 

[dapaterson]

Yes I’m aware of that. Did we replace any from 1982 to 2000?

No. Because the 1980s purchase included attritional aircraft by design.

 

[Czech_pivo]

No. Because the 1980s purchase included attritional aircraft by design.

Maybe
What carried us was the fact that we mothballed all the CF18’s that we moved out of Europe after the bases closed back to Canada. That gave them the depth they needed to cover off all the attrition up until the last 12-15yrs ago when the Aussie buy was supposed to cover us until the F35’s came active.

 

[ytz]

Like I said....

On Bombardier, everybody keeps talking about the Globaleye. Meanwhile, I'm looking at the Conformal, which has the potential to actually give the Wedgetail a run for its money. It was bid for the NATO competition. And now a version is getting picked up for its EW role....by the Koreans.

And in today's news:

L3Harris Secures South Korea Airborne Early Warning Contract | Aviation Week Network

South Korea has selected L3Harris to supply additional airborne early warning aircraft under its E-X Phase II program running through 2032.

aviationweek.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

I guess today would not have been a good day to tell the US that we weren’t going with the 88 F35’s if that’s the direction they’ve decided.

 

[Retired AF Guy]

So yesterday it was posted that Lockmart was awarded a contract of 12.5 Billion USD for 256 F-35 fighters. 148 for lot 18 and the 148 for lot 19 aircraft. Included are 52 F-35A aircraft for foreign FMS buyers which might include the 16 that Canada contracted for?

Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded a $12,529,999,033 modification (P00015) to a fixed-price incentive (firm-target), firm-fixed-price, cost-plus-fixed-fee contract (N0001923C0003). This modification provides for the definitization of 148 Lot 18 aircraft, and adds scope for the production and delivery of 148 lot 19 aircraft, to include 40 F-35A aircraft for the Air Force, 12 F-35B and eight F-35C aircraft for the Marine Corps, nine F-35C aircraft for the Navy, 13 F-35A and two F-35B aircraft for F-35 cooperative program partners, and 52 F-35A and 12 F-35-B aircraft for Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers. Work will be performed in Fort Worth, Texas (57%); El Segundo, California (14%); Warton, United Kingdom (9%); Cameri, Italy (4%); Orlando, Florida (4%); Nashua, New Hampshire (3%); Baltimore, Maryland (3%); San Diego, California (2%); Nagoya, Japan (2%); and various locations outside the continental U.S. (2%), and is expected to be completed in August 2028. Fiscal 2025 aircraft procurement (Air Force) funds in the amount of $3,110,913,188; fiscal 2025 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $2,670,915,923; fiscal 2024 aircraft procurement (Air Force) funds in the amount of $13,574,693; fiscal 2024 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $12,646,802; fiscal 2023 aircraft procurement (Navy) funds in the amount of $28,876; FMS customer funds in the amount of $5,407,510,876; and cooperative program partner funds in the amount of $1,314,408,676, will be obligated at the time of award, $28,876 of which will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. The contract action was not competed. Naval Air Systems Command, Patuxent River, Maryland, is the contracting activity.

Link

 

[suffolkowner]

So yesterday it was posted that Lockmart was awarded a contract of 12.5 Billion USD for 256 F-35 fighters. 148 for lot 18 and the 148 for lot 19 aircraft. Included are 52 F-35A aircraft for foreign FMS buyers which might include the 16 that Canada contracted for?



Link

I dont think so. We are a partner nation so not a FMS?
We are supposed to get 8 over 2026/2027
the other 8 in 2028?

 

[Retired AF Guy]

I dont think so. We are a partner nation so not a FMS?
We are supposed to get 8 over 2026/2027
the other 8 in 2028?

Thank you for the clarification!!