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The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

I can find you stationary gear that requires micron tolerances because while it doesn't leave the foundations on which it is bolted it rotates a thousands if rpms.
I believe you. But could your fancy gear also maintain tolerances under extreme G-forces and temperature swings from –50C to +150C?

Wasn’t this the case when the decision to start ramping up production on the AOPS was made?
We went around the world finding the right people.
We trained the people we had.
We ‘dumbed down’ the initial process and ramp up.
We stretched out the timelines.
And we built the first AOPS.
From initial concept to first delivery it took 13 years. Not sure if that's good or bad though?

Anyone in here care to tell everyone how many centimetres the bow piece was off from the centre piece when they first tried to mate them together.
Is that normal for boats? I would think that reinforces the criticism that the modules were nowhere near acceptable tolerances when they were brought together. But I'm closer to being a pilot than a ship captain.
 
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I believe you. But could your fancy gear also maintain tolerances under extreme G-forces and temperature swings from –50C to +150C?


From initial concept to first delivery it took 13 years. Not sure if that's good or bad though?


Is that normal for boats? I would think that reinforces the criticism that the modules were nowhere near acceptable tolerances when they were brought together. But I'm closer to being a pilot than a ship captain.
The point being on the first AOPS was that the quality control was off and over time it got substantially better.
 
The point being on the first AOPS was that the quality control was off and over time it got substantially better.
Oh man, I'm reading about it now. This was just reported on in 2024, hoping this stuff is fixed.

  • anchors that aren’t effective
  • a refueling system that’s too heavy to use
  • areas on the vessels that are leaking
  • can’t perform emergency towing as was required in the original contract
  • some cranes on the vessels are inoperable
  • structural issues are also hindering the operation of Cyclone helicopters
  • supplier of satellite communications systems on the vessels no longer has the security clearance to provide the navy with parts
 
Oh man, I'm reading about it now. This was just reported on in 2024, hoping this stuff is fixed.

  • anchors that aren’t effective
  • a refueling system that’s too heavy to use
  • areas on the vessels that are leaking
  • can’t perform emergency towing as was required in the original contract
  • some cranes on the vessels are inoperable
  • structural issues are also hindering the operation of Cyclone helicopters
  • supplier of satellite communications systems on the vessels no longer has the security clearance to provide the navy with parts

Not the only issues.

 
I believe you. But could your fancy gear also maintain tolerances under extreme G-forces and temperature swings from –50C to +150C?
Yes and add torsion, compression, tension, kentic force, static force, resistance, spring,
From initial concept to first delivery it took 13 years. Not sure if that's good or bad though?


Is that normal for boats? I would think that reinforces the criticism that the modules were nowhere near acceptable tolerances when they were brought together. But I'm closer to being a pilot than a ship captain.

It's great to hear from someone who worked both in the automobile industry and areospace industry. I'm just googling shit trying to make heads or tails of the responses.


You like that eh?

Saying automotive tolerances are on the same level as modern fighter aircraft tolerances doesn't seem accurate to me?
Isn't the entire nature of the manufacturing, materials, the QA processes, and the certification requirements worlds apart between the auto and aerospace industry?
Inspections and certifications QC and QA are more stringent on aircraft parts. (for the most part). Those same and or similar parts can be used for a multitude of different industries.
Bolt manufacturing for example, AN hardware will have a higher quality control testing then a regular bolt. All this means is that the AN bolt had for example every 100 bolt tested for tolerances, failure torsional, compression, dimensions for tolerance fit bolts etc. Bolts for aircraft and automotive can come off the same assembly line. Batch one is certified and batch two, three and four are not.
For example I'm reading in the auto sector, a millimeter off is often acceptable. In aerospace don't they measure in microns?
Depends on what you are talking about, a mm on a bearing surface is in most cases going to cause you issues automotive or not.
On a modern fighter, wouldn't a tiny deviation in the airframe, skin contour, or radar absorbent coating change aerodynamic performance, stealth signature, structural integrity, or weapons alignment? Not that stealth applies to Gripers but still.
LOL, some time a scratch in composite materiel can render a part unserviceable or a lot of man hours to fix, repair and recertify a part.. At the same time leaking almost all your hydraulic oil out is deemed acceptable.
India took over a decade to prepare to build Su-30s under license. Japan took years to establish local F-35 production, and they already have a top-tier aerospace sector. Brazil took around a decade to build facilities for the Gripen E/F even with Saab’s direct support.
A lot of that will have to do with local decisions and regualtions.
If countries with existing fighter aircraft manufacturing need 8 to 12 years, do you really believe Canada could do it in 3? Even if we put our elbows up?
If SAAB sent us the jigs, tools, instruction manuals, parts and a few experienced assemblers I would say 6 months to set up the factory from when equipment shows up. Meanwhile we are training our workers in the Current SAAB facilities. So 1 year from first equipment hits the ground until we could be assembling a product.
I would honestly look at De Havilland as being a good choice to actually partner with and Bombardier with some sort of spin off, they are building a facility East of Calgary with their own runway. This could be a great opportunity to expand their program and get the government to invest in more then themselves.
Sure good pay can attract workers. It can’t create an aerospace industry out of thin air. I'm reading fighter jet production is going to need decades built supply chains, certified facilities, specialized tooling, and security clearances (just ask the CAF about these). You can’t solve those with higher wages or by pulling workers out of the woodwork.
We already have a very experience Aerospace industry in Canada. To expand it will take some time, but not as much as some think. Especially since we would not be starting off fresh. We would have backing of skilled workers directly involved in the program already who would train and work along side skilled workers who would be hired.
Are Canada's supply chains anywhere near what’s required for full fighter production.
Why would they not be?
Didn't mechanics in the CAF have to order parts of ebay?
Not sure, I know I went to parts and ordered what I needed. It would show up hopefully right away or after a week for restricted and or limited parts.
When I was fixing private aircraft, I went to Canadian Tire one day and bought s Specific Alternator that was Certified by TC for small aircraft use.
Expanding and optimizing also doesn't seem like a 2 to 3 year task. I'm reading it will mean building entirely new certified lines for composites, titanium, avionics, weapons integration, ITAR secure facilities, flight-test infrastructure, and more. That’s a decade+ scale industrial buildout. No?
Not really we already have most of this in Canada currently. ITAR secure facilities specifically is something that would have to be determined.
Or they could be big bullies and kindly tell smaller countries FAFO. Prime Minister Carney apologized pretty damn fast.
Lol, when your in his back pocket what else does one do.
Are countries going to go to bat for beloved Canada if Trump goes on the warpath? I wouldn't count on it.
ahh who knows, they have been scared for years but now are realizing how unreliable the US can be,.
See my point about Brazil, India, and Japan.


You can't throw a Nusmista without it landing on unceded traditional land. I don't imagine First Nations will sit idly by while a multi-billion dollar facility(ies) gets built on their land. How many hundreds of millions of dollars will consultations take? How many years will that put us back.
Just do it and deal with forgiveness later. Politics and greasing palms is what causes multi year delays to projects. Not the actual capability to do so itself.
Manufacturing jets (and 84mm rockets and CV90s) in Canada would be awesome.
That would be good,
Pushing a 3-5 year time frame just seems like more lies. We should respect ourselves more.
I think it is realistic. Saab is looking at Canada's manufacturing potential overall.
It was a response to the position that our automotive or general manufacturing industry can quickly pivot to aviation, apparently in mere months.
It depends on what the tooling and requirements specifically are.
The point being on the first AOPS was that the quality control was off and over time it got substantially better.
I heard QC and QA was almost non existent. When they were challenged about it they said mind your business we know what were doing. 1+1 does not equal 1.5 or 2.25 unless your a Eastern Shipyard trying to fake it until you make it.
 
We can apparently pivot on a dime from manufacturing auto parts to aircraft parts, but it seems generally accepted on another thread that we shouldn't pivot to build our own submarines. Interesting.
That’s an easy answer.
We have a path forward to replace the CF18s in a timely manner and that will start in the next 3-4yrs in terms timeline.

What’s the status of the Halifax’s and Victoria’s?
The Vic will be toast in 10yrs and the Halifax’s maybe 15 is God smiles upon us.
Building the subs offshore, if we choose the SK’s, will give us 3 subs in the water in 10yrs, allowing us the ability to not only replace the Vic’s but allow for Halifax loses.
If we built subs in-house we’d be lucky to have the first one operational in 12yrs, whereas we should already have 4 in the water operational by then. The SK subs will cover off the loss of the Vic’s AND the lost of Halifax’s until the Rivers come online in significant numbers 15yrs from now.

All branches in the CAF, except one, the General Staff, have been run into the ground over the last 35yrs and it will take 15+yrs to begin righting the ship.
 
Isn't a key selling feature of the Gripen it's ability to land and take off from austere locations?

Selling features on brochures that people eat up like donuts in a canteen. Where is the testing and data to prove these claims? Has the Gripen E ever landed in a location that other fighters could not? Can the Gripen land on Canadas northern gravel roads?
 
$150 million is the high end estimate of a Gripen. There are quotes as low as $85 million but the average for the E & F is presently approximately $110 to 120 million.

Colombia's recent deal was €182M per aircraft. That's obviously more than the aircraft, but the idea that we'll buy Gripens for US$120M is patently wrong. And Colombia isn't asking them to indigenize production. That adds cost.


I am still a proponent of a full F35 purchase but dismissing the Gripen just because it's not an F35 requires a fair review.

Zero chance we buy the full complement of F-35s and Gripens on top. Just getting these 88 jets with full renewal on infrastructure, IT, force structure (including two new trades) is a big lift. To now go from ~90 frames to 120+ in the same time with a third fleet to manage is an extraordinary demand.

The only realistic way to do this is to cut short F-35 deliveries and retire the Hornet fleet before Gripen deliveries start. In theory, if the F-35 order was cut to ~50, deliveries end in 2030. The Hornet would have to retire in 2031. That frees up technical and training resources to staff up a Gripen fleet that starts delivering in 2032. Or we simply start taking delivery of Gripens early and break the RCAF with low mission readiness and lots of aircraft parked on the ramp.

No political party in this country in the last 35yrs has given a shit about the CAF.

And yet some people believe that Team Blue was substantially better. Shows how far rhetoric can get a politician.
 
I wigged people have a look at the proposed RCN fleet size and then compare that against the 88 F35’s that were proposed over 5yrs ago and ask yourself the question - if the RCN will be expanding to this size in 15ish years, isn’t logical that the size/capabilities of the RCAF will follow suit?
 
You’ll never be able to land in places like Penticton with 11 F-18s or F-16s.
Not sure where people come up with this stuff. Video of a Hornet departing Castlegar with an even shorter runway:


Load is a big part. But fighters can adjust tactically to use smaller airfields. They just go light on gas and hit the tanker as soon as they are airborne.

Isn't a key selling feature of the Gripen it's ability to land and take off from austere locations?

Which is a rather silly selling feature. This is a function of the air force, not the airplane. We just demonstrated this capability with our own Hornets:


Even done with an F-35 in Finland:


But also, nobody talks about the trade-offs when designing for substantially more off-field ops. The Gripen has beefier landing gear for its size. That imposes space and weight penalties on that aircraft.

Ultimately, it's telling that none of the Scandinavian or Baltic neighbours facing the same threat environment chose the Gripen. Guess off field performance wasn't that big a deal.
 
Not sure where people come up with this stuff. Video of a Hornet departing Castlegar with an even shorter runway:

Cancel-gar....

Getting in and out of that airport is how I imagined Khe Sahn might have been like ;)
 
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I wigged people have a look at the proposed RCN fleet size and then compare that against the 88 F35’s that were proposed over 5yrs ago and ask yourself the question - if the RCN will be expanding to this size in 15ish years, isn’t logical that the size/capabilities of the RCAF will follow suit?

Not sure why they follows. Fleet sizes are based on tasks.
 
I wigged people have a look at the proposed RCN fleet size and then compare that against the 88 F35’s that were proposed over 5yrs ago and ask yourself the question - if the RCN will be expanding to this size in 15ish years, isn’t logical that the size/capabilities of the RCAF will follow suit?in
In some areas we are getting larger numbers: 9 Huskies to replace 3 Polaris. 16 (possibly more) P-8 Poseidon to replace 14 Auroras, adding 11 of MQ9B Guardians. Helicopters , I’m not sure where that is headed. There’s a thread for that.
The size of the F35 fleet was sized to NORAD and NATO requirements during JT’s 1st term, not sure if those requirements have been reviewed since.
 
In some areas we are getting larger numbers: 9 Huskies to replace 3 Polaris. 16 (possibly more) P-8 Poseidon to replace 14 Auroras, adding 11 of MQ9B Guardians. Helicopters , I’m not sure where that is headed. There’s a thread for that.
The size of the F35 fleet was sized to NORAD and NATO requirements during JT’s 1st term, not sure if those requirements have been reviewed since.
did we pick up the option on the P8?
 
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In some areas we are getting larger numbers: 9 Huskies to replace 3 Polaris. 16 (possibly more) P-8 Poseidon to replace 14 Auroras, adding 11 of MQ9B Guardians. Helicopters , I’m not sure where that is headed. There’s a thread for that.
The size of the F35 fleet was sized to NORAD and NATO requirements during JT’s 1st term, not sure if those requirements have been reviewed since.

Not only are we buying more, the capabilities of what we are buying are substantial. Compare a Husky and a Polaris. Or a P-8 and an Aurora. There's a weird obsession among the chattering classes on straight numbers and manned platforms. Not much discussion on capability. Particularly strange in a forum like this which should know better.

did we pick up the option on the P8?

Haven't seen anything on the news.
 
Increased presence and on station requirements should lead to greater air assets to assist and support.

To begin with the naval growth is not as substantial as you think. We are going from 12 Halifax Class and 4 Tribals to 15 RCDs. Next, those ships will all have a maritime helicopter and surveillance drone onboard. Beyond that, the combination of P-8s, MQ-9s and satellites (DESSP) that is coming online, is both higher total platform count and more capabilities than we've ever had before. So I'm a little confused here on what you think is lacking?
 
In some areas we are getting larger numbers: 9 Huskies to replace 3 Polaris. 16 (possibly more) P-8 Poseidon to replace 14 Auroras, adding 11 of MQ9B Guardians. Helicopters , I’m not sure where that is headed. There’s a thread for that.
The size of the F35 fleet was sized to NORAD and NATO requirements during JT’s 1st term, not sure if those requirements have been reviewed since.
Just noticed I typed an incorrect number. We have 5 Polaris not 3. My dog likes to help sometimes. Apologies. Still we are getting twice the number of aircraft available for AAR or troop transport, plus they are higher capacity and will be able to support both types of AAR. Truly a win-win.
 
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