The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[OldSolduer]

I made this point on a thread a few days ago where all the contributors are all swooning over the Gripen. A 5th Gen fighter in all likelihood maul it decisively.

 

[KevinB]

I made this point on a thread a few days ago where all the contributors are all swooning over the Gripen. A 5th Gen fighter in all likelihood maul it decisively.

Unfortunately the question that remains to be answered is if the GoC cares about capabilities, or just spending monies.

Historically capabilities have taken a back seat.

 

[GR66]

NORAD isn't a first strike command however, it's something to realize that Russian bombers incursions into our airspace are typically escorted by their own fighters. Currently those are last generation SU-35's typically however, Russia is actively producing its own 5th generation SU-57 fighter that while likely stacking up poorly against the F-22/F-35, is an exceptionally dangerous adversary for 4th generation fighters like the F-16, F-15 and Gripen. 5th generation platforms are being developed and sold abroad by/to adversary nations, the future is already here and it makes little sense to address that by.......buying an aircraft already behind the times? Sitting back and expecting the status quo to remain such for the next four decades or more does not seem responsible.

It's also something to put out there that the RCAF has a history of expeditionary operations with the CF-18 which has the potential to put us up against increasingly advanced hostile SAM, drone and fighter threats abroad. A 5th generation stealth aircraft is leagues more survivable against threats at home and abroad. The RCAF deployed in the Gulf War, Yugoslavia, Libya, fighting against ISIL, etc. With tensions flaring abroad and our Govt in trade/relation building talks with countless nations, I wouldn't expect the RCAF to be sitting on its hands in the coming decades. You could do this work with an aircraft like the Gripen however, you are fundamentally bringing a much less interoperable, safe and capable platform to the table to do so. Given the breadth of allied F-35 operators (Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, South Korea, UK, US currently with Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Greece, Romania planned for the future), arriving in Europe or elsewhere with a fundamentally interoperable aircraft is an advantage hard to put into words.

F-35 isn't some crazy new capability for many nations, it's simply the new norm and has been for quite sometime.

I'll start be again saying that I'm on team F-35. Get all 88 (I wish it was more), BUT I stand by my opinion that (beyond the logistical and training burden) a split fleet of say 65 x F-35's and 65 x Gripens wouldn't be the end-of-the-World scenario operationally that some seem to suggest.

Keep the Gripens away from any expeditionary roles - that's exactly what the stealthy F-35 is designed for. However for the NORAD role the main peacetime objective is presence and deterrence. The Gripen is capable of that with a healthy weapon loadout of 7 x BVR missiles. Support that role with our OTH and other NORAD radars, our coming AEW aircraft, its own AESA radar and some F-35's in a QB role. I'd prefer the F-15 EX for that role personally due to it's greater range and payload, but politically that's not an option. The US seems to think that using F-15's and F-16's for the NORAD role (supported by F-22's and F-35's) is acceptable so I'd suggest our using Gripens supported by F-35's in a QB role would work for Canada as well.

Now, IF those Russian bombers actually launch an attack across the pole then whether they are escorted by SU-35's or SU-57's is the least of our worries because there will be no mass conventional strike by Russia (or China) on North America. If NORAD see's a whole bunch of missiles incoming it will have no choice but to assume that it is a nuclear first strike and will respond accordingly. Russia and China know that as well, so IF they did decide to attack with their bomber force it will also be accompanied by several thousand ICBMs and our choice of fighter aircraft for the NORAD role will be irrelevant. The bombers will launch before our fighters are close enough to intercept and our fighters will likely focus their missiles on the incoming Russian/Chinese cruise missiles - so a Gripen might even have a slight advantage over a stealthy F-35 carrying only an internal weapons load...but neither will likely have an intact base to return to.

TLDR: Yes we need F-35's and in enough numbers to be relevant. Yes they should be used for our NATO/expeditionary roles due to their stealth. Yes we should use them to QB our NORAD fighters. No the world won't end if we also had Gripens in the fleet for the NORAD role.

 

[Quirky]

a split fleet of say 65 x F-35's and 65 x Gripens wouldn't be the end-of-the-World scenario operationally that some seem to suggest.

Not enough manning to support two fleets, it's already been discussed, not to mention logistics of running two fleets. You're better off taking the cost of 65 gripens and buying 6X F-35s, because there isn't anything the Gripen can do, that the F-35 can't. There are certainly things the F-35 can do, which the Gripen can't. Why buy a fleet that can do 100% of the things, and buy another fleet than can only do 60%. The days of two fighter fleets in Canada are over.

 

[Furniture]

I made this point on a thread a few days ago where all the contributors are all swooning over the Gripen. A 5th Gen fighter in all likelihood maul it decisively.

That ignores the reality that the latest 4.5 Gen fighters have similar sensor and EW capabilities, and are simply more detectable by some radars.

Radar cross section(RCS) is not the advantage it was 20 years ago, and as time goes on lower RCS will likely continue to lose effectivness.

Unfortunately the question that remains to be answered is if the GoC cares about capabilities, or just spending monies in countries that are being actively hostile to our economny and have threatened our sovereignty.

FTFY...

 

[Czech_pivo]

Unfortunately the question that remains to be answered is if the GoC cares about capabilities, or just spending monies.

Historically capabilities have taken a back seat.

Why does no one on here care to look beyond the simplest form of collaboration with SAAB as being the Gripen E and not towards anything out into the future that may move well beyond the Gripen E?

Pretty much everyone is stuck on the here and now, and not willing or able to look 10+yrs into the future.

Someone last week on another thread here posted a graphical representative of the decline of Entrepreneurship in Canada and lamented about it.

The key point, the focal point, in entrepreneurship is RISK TAKING, followed closely by picking one's self off the floor when failure occurs and trying again and again until you succeed. All that I'm reading about on this thread is zero risk taking, bowing down to the F35 (which is an amazing airframe that we DO need to have in substantial numbers) and continuing to allow others to do all the risk taking (and ALL the rewards and profits) and we merely cut them cheque for their efforts and buy whatever they put in front of our faces. Then when this occurs we cry about not getting enough of the crumbs, our 3% of the total value of an airframe, and threaten to pick our one toy and go home.

audentes Fortuna iuvat

qui audet adipiscitur

 

[KevinB]

Why does no one on here care to look beyond the simplest form of collaboration with SAAB as being the Gripen E and not towards anything out into the future that may move well beyond the Gripen E?

The US has been in the flying of stealth aircraft business for more than four decades.
LocMart brought the F 117A to the USAF in operational squadrons in the early 80's.
Northrop Grumman's B2 went into service in 1997.
LocMart brought the F-22 Raptor to the USAF in 2005 -- two decades later it is still the most advanced fighter flying - and outclasses the F-35, let alone anything else in the air.

Guess how many entities have actual stealth aircraft in operation currently?
1, that that is Boeing - yet another US defense giant.

The SU-57 isn't a stealth aircraft -- it is a boogeyman that people roll out to drive DoD and US MIC spending, it has the radar signature of the giant ass gun tractor y'all bought for the M777.

The Chinese are the closest - but they are not there yet.

Europe remains to be seen, as they have not trotted out anything past a Gen 4 Fighter.

Pretty much everyone is stuck on the here and now, and not willing or able to look 10+yrs into the future.

The sobering reality is the money spent on the US Aerospace Industry is larger than the Canadian GDP, when you look at what the companies IRD, DoD and DARPA funding to remain ahead of the competition.

Attempting to chase the dragon in an economy as small as Canada (or as small as Canada partnered with Sweden) will bankrupt you both.

Someone last week on another thread here posted a graphical representative of the decline of Entrepreneurship in Canada and lamented about it.

The key point, the focal point, in entrepreneurship is RISK TAKING, followed closely by picking one's self off the floor when failure occurs and trying again and again until you succeed. All that I'm reading about on this thread is zero risk taking, bowing down to the F35 (which is an amazing airframe that we DO need to have in substantial numbers) and continuing to allow others to do all the risk taking (and ALL the rewards and profits) and we merely cut them cheque for their efforts and buy whatever they put in front of our faces. Then when this occurs we cry about not getting enough of the crumbs, our 3% of the total value of an airframe, and threaten to pick our one toy and go home.

audentes Fortuna iuvat

qui audet adipiscitur

Now I would suggest that Canada look toward Europe as the next potential option AFTER the F-35, but I would not be sinking any money into SAAB for Fighters now or in 2-3 decades.
I suspect the Gen 6 Aircraft Field will come down to the F-47, and GCAP (BAE/Mitsubishi), but I doubt that GCAP will be flying by 2035 in anything beyond a prototype. I am also not sure beyond sensor/processor/bandwidth aspects if either will actually offer anything beyond what the F-22 does today.

Canada is a small defense market, without something truly revolutionary domestically produced, the best option for Canada is to work as a partner with larger aligned nations - spreading risks and rewards, but not jumping into an airframe that realistically is past its shelf life - and has no reasonable expectations of advances.

 

[Czech_pivo]

The US has been in the flying of stealth aircraft business for more than four decades.
LocMart brought the F 117A to the USAF in operational squadrons in the early 80's.
Northrop Grumman's B2 went into service in 1997.
LocMart brought the F-22 Raptor to the USAF in 2005 -- two decades later it is still the most advanced fighter flying - and outclasses the F-35, let alone anything else in the air.

Guess how many entities have actual stealth aircraft in operation currently?
1, that that is Boeing - yet another US defense giant.

The SU-57 isn't a stealth aircraft -- it is a boogeyman that people roll out to drive DoD and US MIC spending, it has the radar signature of the giant ass gun tractor y'all bought for the M777.

The Chinese are the closest - but they are not there yet.

Europe remains to be seen, as they have not trotted out anything past a Gen 4 Fighter.



The sobering reality is the money spent on the US Aerospace Industry is larger than the Canadian GDP, when you look at what the companies IRD, DoD and DARPA funding to remain ahead of the competition.

Attempting to chase the dragon in an economy as small as Canada (or as small as Canada partnered with Sweden) will bankrupt you both.


Now I would suggest that Canada look toward Europe as the next potential option AFTER the F-35, but I would not be sinking any money into SAAB for Fighters now or in 2-3 decades.
I suspect the Gen 6 Aircraft Field will come down to the F-47, and GCAP (BAE/Mitsubishi), but I doubt that GCAP will be flying by 2035 in anything beyond a prototype. I am also not sure beyond sensor/processor/bandwidth aspects if either will actually offer anything beyond what the F-22 does today.

Canada is a small defense market, without something truly revolutionary domestically produced, the best option for Canada is to work as a partner with larger aligned nations - spreading risks and rewards, but not jumping into an airframe that realistically is past its shelf life - and has no reasonable expectations of advances.

All valid points - all of them. But it doesn't mean that we should be sitting back doing nothing. There is a potential attempt to be partnering with SAAB, for exactly what is an unknown, but there is no reason why this should not be explored further and see where it may lead to.