The RCAF's Next Generation Fighter (CF-188 Replacement)

[ytz]

Would you rather be a fighter pilot who's also a bus driver, or work for big red who also flys fighters?

Except that real life doesn't offer that option. An airline isn't going to employ a guy who flies a quarter or less of everybody else.

There's not many countries that do the reserve fighter pilot thing. Mostly the US. And mostly because the US is so huge that there are plenty of folks who have non-flying careers outside the Air NG/Reserves. We just don't have that depth in Canada. Most countries don't. What we literally need is a guy/gal who is willing to fly 2-3x per week and then work as a real estate agent the rest of the time so they aren't running up on legal restrictions on total flight hours.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Except that real life doesn't offer that option. An airline isn't going to employ a guy who flies a quarter or less of everybody else.

There's not many countries that do the reserve fighter pilot thing. Mostly the US. And mostly because the US is so huge that there are plenty of folks who have non-flying careers outside the Air NG/Reserves. We just don't have that depth in Canada. Most countries don't. What we literally need is a guy/gal who is willing to fly 2-3x per week and then work as a real estate agent the rest of the time so they aren't running up on legal restrictions on total flight hours.

In addition to that, you'd need them to reside within 1hr drive time from which RCAF bases? Please don't say Cold Lake/Bagotville as that would be a non-starter.

EDIT: 30yrs ago I use to live 10mins from Selfridges ANGB base and would routinely which their planes doing 'touch and go' landings during the weekends.

Having facilities located by major urban centers makes total sense. Back during that same timeline I used to be able to be on base 1-2 times a year at Otis ANGB on Cape Cod. Another case of being located under an hour drive (not in the summer) from a major urban area (Boston).

 

[ytz]

Will add though. If we ever want to do that kind of building of a fighter reserve, the practical way to do is exactly with these light fighters.

 

[MilEME09]

Will add though. If we ever want to do that kind of building of a fighter reserve, the practical way to do is exactly with these light fighters.

Do we need to go that far? or could we just buy an excessive number of the next lead in fighter trainer, give that to some kind of air reserve pilot trade, that way if needed we are just converting them to X platform within 6 weeks to 3 months.

 

[dapaterson]

Do we need to go that far? or could we just buy an excessive number of the next lead in fighter trainer, give that to some kind of air reserve pilot trade, that way if needed we are just converting them to X platform within 6 weeks to 3 months.

One challenge is the tight labour market for pilots. In the event of a national emergency, would we be able to surge pilots from commercial flying (lots of cargo travels by air) to the military, or would maintain the economy be the priority, so Bob would still fly for UPS, not a CF46 light fighter?

 

[FJAG]

Interesting thing is by prioritizing “operations” and “readiness” what is actually being prioritized is routine peacetime operations.
If you think that Major Combat Operations are going to breakout in the next 5 years, prioritizing peacetime operations over modernization will result in your forces being less ready, effective and efficient for major combat.

If leadership (CAF, DND,GoC) actually think that war is on the horizon they would be better off emphasizing modernization.

This. Exactly this.

Except that real life doesn't offer that option. An airline isn't going to employ a guy who flies a quarter or less of everybody else.

There's not many countries that do the reserve fighter pilot thing. Mostly the US. And mostly because the US is so huge that there are plenty of folks who have non-flying careers outside the Air NG/Reserves. We just don't have that depth in Canada. Most countries don't. What we literally need is a guy/gal who is willing to fly 2-3x per week and then work as a real estate agent the rest of the time so they aren't running up on legal restrictions on total flight hours.

We have one tenth the population of the US and one tenth the need for a military, very roughly.

The US has 105,104 Air National Guard personnel 68,927 Air Force Reserve personnel. One tenth would be a total of 17,000 Canadians in the air reserve. We have 2,700. Canada has had a form of air reserve since the 1920s. Post war the establishment included 5,700 air reservists/auxiliary in a military of around 50,000. In 1965 everything went to hell in a handbasket when it was cut to just 700.

At their height they operated 13 fighter/bomber squadrons, 14 aircraft control and warning squadrons, 16 medical units, and 9 wing headquarters. Much of their role was frontline air defence and my quick research showed at least six of their squadrons flew F-86 Sabres. And yes, all six of those squadrons were based in larger cities.

You don't have to tell me; modern aircraft and tactics are more complex than an F-86. The real issue, however, is costs and budgets. You could probably train a new pilot in the time it took to build an F-86 - both those equations have changed - a lot. There are only so many planes one can afford and one probably loses more planes through accidents and enemy action than one loses pilots. So there's not much benefit in having a larger pool of pilots than are operationally needed in a given squadron.

I'm not one of those actually calling for a large pool of reserve jet pilots but there are so many other areas - UAVs, tactical helicopters, even transport, some search and rescue. And don't forget your ground personnel including a security force. The RCAF needs a much bigger and better air reserve.

 

[ytz]

Do we need to go that far? or could we just buy an excessive number of the next lead in fighter trainer, give that to some kind of air reserve pilot trade, that way if needed we are just converting them to X platform within 6 weeks to 3 months.

Experienced Ukrainian pilots who had seen combat took months to learn the F-16. And you think somebody who has only ever flown a trainer would convert to anything, let alone say an F-35 in weeks?

You need something higher than a basic FLIT if you want to reduce follow-on training load. This is where that light fighter idea helps. They get comfortable with Helmet Mounted Displays. They really master using an AESA radar (which is very different than the Top Gun days of picking A scan, b scan, C scan). They can get a chance at learning the entire weapons inventory, including live fire. And they get to do air-to-air refueling. Most trainers won't do all that. Only a light fighter will. And then if you do all of that, maybe you have a hope of teaching somebody how to use an F-35 in 2-3 months.

But broadly, the idea of a reserve fighter pilot is pure waste for the CAF. The US worries about having enough fighter pilots in a prolonged war. They worry about having more planes than pilots as war progresses. Smaller countries which don't build their own airplanes don't have that problem. They'll be able to ramp up pilot production, faster than airplane production. But also, planning for WWIII is all but irrelevant for anybody but the absolute largest powers. Don't forget the opportunity cost here. That reserve flying club is going to end up costing the same as an infantry battalion and deliver far less actual effect. And all this is in the context of even the USAF aiming for a 3:1 unmanned to manned aircraft ratio by 2050. Our biggest gap isn't pilots. Second to the lack of a fifth gen fighter, it's the full decade we are behind on drones and CCAs.

 

[childs56]

In general terms the next 10 years are going to see major changes across all our elements, equipment and organization.
Leadership keeps saying that maintaining operations is the main effort but that’s going to run into a hard reality.
Operations may have to take a backseat to modernization for several years, so as too be “ready” with the modernized forces.

That is a narrow mindset. Lots of recently retired folks that could be hired back to conduct much of that training while keeping our operations maintained. (since we are already having issues maintaining those operations it will be a crap shoot no matter how we do it).

It will be interesting to see if the most upper leadership can organize modernization across the elements such that Cdn contributions are maintained by different elements as the others enter a higher modernization tempo (P8s deploying instead of frigates etc.) or if we can use reserves to create time to allow regular units to modernize (more a army thing)

I don't really have much faith they can or will. They empire build to much, and create support for themselves or their equipment.

I continue to contend that part of the problem is that our fighter fleet is too small. It doesn't provide a large enough pool of pilots to cover all of our operational, training and administrative needs. While it may be difficult to get to that point I bet that a fleet closer to 130-150 aircraft would have less difficulty meeting our non-operational pilot requirements once we get crewing (and obviously techs) to that new baseline.

I agree and would say go to a fleet of 200.

People have to drop this idea of reserve fighter pilots in reserve fighter squadrons. It's largely impractical in Canada. Not in the least because the majority of those folks would be airline pilots who face strict legal restrictions on total flying hours. Also, a fighter pilot that flies less is simply less proficient. Until we're absolutely bursting at the seams, we don't need to be making less proficient pilots.

I would disagree fully, A fighter pilot who has some training is better then one with no training. If a Reserve pilot can head out and fly for a few hours every month and practice one or two types of missions then we have won. Really how many flight hours does a fighter pilot in Canada get at the moment. (yes they put lots of hours into planning and other training aspects). A pilot does not have to be a expert in all aspects to be valuable. Ie ground support, air to air, ECM etc. One can provide a skill set that can be worked on. I know a few Civie Pilots who would join the Air Reserve if things were 1 easier to join as a pilot, 2 actually had airframes to fly. 3 we reasonably able to join.

Yeah. Shocker. All the guys with experience came up with a reasonable COA compared to all the Wikipedia experts engaging in this toxic debate......

And the good part here? Getting industrial concessions is way easier on fighter trainers. Way more options in this space. And our order of 60-80 frames in total would be absolutely massive. Added bonus is a reduction on contracts to Top Aces.

Gripen boys want to argue that we don't need a Ferrari for everything. Sometimes a BMW will do. I think we should remind them that sometimes a Corolla is just fine too. Buy lots of Corollas and Ferraris. Skip the Bimmers. A real Hi-Lo mix.

But when we need a 5 ton truck with AC and a diesel. Can we get away with a 2 ton that can function in the 5 ton range for short periods. Where the 1/4 ton gas can't even keep up.
I am not a 100% Gripen fan, but I think it makes a better case especially with SAAB offering direct co-operation with industry going forward for us to get on board with. If the project fails then at least it wont be a total loss. We can have pilots fly their cross countries in a jet that can land all over the place showing the Flag.
( I would love to see 100 F15's, 100 F16's and the 65-85 F35s) but we all know that is not going to happen. Nor does it align with what our citizens will allow.
I would order the F35's, then order a Combat capable Fighter/Trainer that fits within the Context of being cheaper to operate.
I don't think we have enough wiggle room at this time to buy a dedicated Jet Trainer that is not actual multi role capable.

If we can buy some of those smaller neater platforms based off the Air boss or similar system. Who knows maybe some of those Northern Pilots will want to come join the Group to cowboy it up.

 

[ytz]

I would disagree fully, A fighter pilot who has some training is better then one with no training. If a Reserve pilot can head out and fly for a few hours every month and practice one or two types of missions then we have won. Really how many flight hours does a fighter pilot in Canada get at the moment. (yes they put lots of hours into planning and other training aspects). A pilot does not have to be a expert in all aspects to be valuable. Ie ground support, air to air, ECM etc. One can provide a skill set that can be worked on. I know a few Civie Pilots who would join the Air Reserve if things were 1 easier to join as a pilot, 2 actually had airframes to fly. 3 we reasonably able to join.

This is a take that only somebody with zero experience or knowledge of the RCAF would come up with. NATO targets that countries aim for 180 hrs per year per fighter pilot for MINIMUM proficiency. Throw in the general rule of thumb for 2-3 hrs of pre and post flight work per flight hour and you have a lot of work for a reservist. We're talking about a part-time job that's at least 10-15 hrs per week. And that doesn't include admin, fitness, non-flying training, etc. And even sleep. All kinds of rules in there. And all of those compound if they have another flying job.

Again. This is not driving an LSVW. It's flying a fighter jet. Suggesting that we have guys who treat this as a hobby is about as sensible as suggesting to an F1 Team that their drivers practice once a month and simply surge for a big race. The likely outcome isn't a win. It's a wrecked car and dead driver.

In any event, until we can solve our current pilot and tech shortages, this idea is even more fantastical.

I am not a 100% Gripen fan, but I think it makes a better case especially with SAAB offering direct co-operation with industry going forward for us to get on board with.

Not sure why you think the same deal can't be had on fighter trainers. Look at the deal Egypt is getting from the Koreans for the TA/FA-50:

https://defence-industry.eu/egypt-nears-deal-with-south-korea-for-100-fa-50-light-combat-aircraft/#google_vignette

 

[ytz]

Did you keep a straight face when you typed that ? lol

Something, something "Reconstitution".

 

[Kirkhill]

In addition to that, you'd need them to reside within 1hr drive time from which RCAF bases? Please don't say Cold Lake/Bagotville as that would be a non-starter.

EDIT: 30yrs ago I use to live 10mins from Selfridges ANGB base and would routinely which their planes doing 'touch and go' landings during the weekends.

Having facilities located by major urban centers makes total sense. Back during that same timeline I used to be able to be on base 1-2 times a year at Otis ANGB on Cape Cod. Another case of being located under an hour drive (not in the summer) from a major urban area (Boston).

I grew up at the end of the runway at Prestwick airport. With a clear line of sight from Ailsa Craig on the Firth to the whiteline at the start of the runway. I used to entertain myself spending hours leaning against our back fence watching the USAF pilots in long haul 4 engine piston props doig touch and goes. My grandfather worked at that field duting and after the war as an aviation mechanic. A bandmate of my uncle picked up body parts from the end of the runway after a civilian airliner crash and put the bits in sacks. That runway is a bicycle ride away from Glasgow, and like most British and European airfields it is well integrated into the community and society, For as many voices that get raised against the noise and occasional danger more voices are raised when shutdowns are discussed and jobs are put at risk.

Take a look at at all the Sabres on pylons scattered all over the country. People were proud to be a part of those planes and they believed that those planes, their pilots and crews, served a purpose.

I believe that if you took each one of those pylons, found the nearest runway, and established a Reg/Res flight of armable Red Hawks (T7/F7) with a primary CUAS role and a training and visibility mission you would go a long way to solving your HR problems.

 

[ytz]

One challenge is the tight labour market for pilots. In the event of a national emergency, would we be able to surge pilots from commercial flying (lots of cargo travels by air) to the military, or would maintain the economy be the priority, so Bob would still fly for UPS, not a CF46 light fighter?

It's really not that tight. Airlines love talking about pilot shortages. Meanwhile junior pilots are paid crap. And most of them have to start their career trying to keep other students pilots from killing them as a CFI or flying canned fruit to Arctic communities. Basically, if you want to be a pilot these days, you have to come from a middle class background where your family will economically support you for a decade. Or you join the CAF. Guaranteed if we were have a large war where we need a lot of pilots this will be far less of an issue.

 

[Halifax Tar]

It's really not that tight. Airlines love talking about pilot shortages. Meanwhile junior pilots are paid crap. And most of them have to start their career trying to keep other students pilots from killing them as a CFI or flying canned fruit to Arctic communities. Guaranteed if we were have a large war where we need a lot of pilots this will be far less of an issue.

I have a close friend who is a pilot for a rich dude in town. I was shocked when told me how little our regional pilots make.

 

[MilEME09]

Experienced Ukrainian pilots who had seen combat took months to learn the F-16. And you think somebody who has only ever flown a trainer would convert to anything, let alone say an F-35 in weeks?

You need something higher than a basic FLIT if you want to reduce follow-on training load. This is where that light fighter idea helps. They get comfortable with Helmet Mounted Displays. They really master using an AESA radar (which is very different than the Top Gun days of picking A scan, b scan, C scan). They can get a chance at learning the entire weapons inventory, including live fire. And they get to do air-to-air refueling. Most trainers won't do all that. Only a light fighter will. And then if you do all of that, maybe you have a hope of teaching somebody how to use an F-35 in 2-3 months.

But broadly, the idea of a reserve fighter pilot is pure waste for the CAF. The US worries about having enough fighter pilots in a prolonged war. They worry about having more planes than pilots as war progresses. Smaller countries which don't build their own airplanes don't have that problem. They'll be able to ramp up pilot production, faster than airplane production. But also, planning for WWIII is all but irrelevant for anybody but the absolute largest powers. Don't forget the opportunity cost here. That reserve flying club is going to end up costing the same as an infantry battalion and deliver far less actual effect. And all this is in the context of even the USAF aiming for a 3:1 unmanned to manned aircraft ratio by 2050. Our biggest gap isn't pilots. Second to the lack of a fifth gen fighter, it's the full decade we are behind on drones and CCAs.

CF-18, 9 months, F-35 is 9-12 months, by getting pilots to phase 2 standard we cut 1.5-2 years off training them into a plane. Having a light fighter doesn't really change this because they would still need 9 months of conversion training to learn the F35. So why add more work when we dont need to?

 

[Kirkhill]

One challenge is the tight labour market for pilots. In the event of a national emergency, would we be able to surge pilots from commercial flying (lots of cargo travels by air) to the military, or would maintain the economy be the priority, so Bob would still fly for UPS, not a CF46 light fighter?

Would Bob be more useful in uniform flying his UPS aircraft, taken up from trade, under orders? While some cropduster is flying CUAS patrols over North Bay in a CF7 Red Hawk armed with a couple of pods of CRV7s with APKWS II modules?

Edit to add

Still trying to figure out how IAMD missile Batteries/Squadrons and coastal Batteries/Squadrons with long range, cruise missile armed CCAs aer going to fit into this puzzle. Add in uncrewed helicopters handling local hotshot express runs and I think we have an embarassment of riches.

More moving bits equals a wide span of control. We will need lots of people that understand the skies. We won't, necessarily, need lots of people in the skies.

 

[ytz]

I have a close friend who is a pilot for a rich dude in town. I was shocked when told me how little our regional pilots make.

Yeah. And now we're going to suggest that guy, who is stressed out by his dayjob pay, also fly a fighter jet couple of times a week as a reservist. How focused is that guy going to be on becoming and maintaining proficiency as a fighter pilot?

 

[ytz]

While some cropduster is flying CUAS patrols over North Bay in a CF7 Red Hawk armed with a couple of pods of CRV7s with APKWS II modules?

Just because the Americans did this in the Red Sea, nobody should normalize an insanely expensive solution that is on the losing side of the cost curve.

First of all, nobody is going to facing that kind of drone threat domestically. Far more likely, something like Operation Spider Web. And next, the cheaper way to do what the Americans did is with a Reaper using the same rockets or some kind of autocannon.

 

[ytz]

CF-18, 9 months, F-35 is 9-12 months, by getting pilots to phase 2 standard we cut 1.5-2 years off training them into a plane. Having a light fighter doesn't really change this because they would still need 9 months of conversion training to learn the F35. So why add more work when we dont need to?

These numbers are based on them not just learning the aircraft but also everything to do with fighter ops. If you have an advance light fighter (AESA Radar, HOBS missiles, AAR capable, datalinks, etc), the more equivalent transition would be from a HEP II Hornet to an F-35. And I do think that could absolutely be done in less than 6 months. Probably a lot less.

Also, FLIT is Phase 3. They are still flying the turboprop in Phase 2. So really the light fighter idea is something akin to Phase IV or even Phase IV+.

 

[Kirkhill]

Just because the Americans did this in the Red Sea, nobody should normalize an insanely expensive solution that is on the losing side of the cost curve.

First of all, nobody is going to facing that kind of drone threat domestically. Far more likely, something like Operation Spider Web. And next, the cheaper way to do what the Americans did is with a Reaper using the same rockets or some kind of autocannon.

Not insanely expensive. Only crazily so. The FLITs of this world only cost about 20% of what it takes to run a front line fighter.

And never say never. The Americans adopted that posture as an expedient solution to exigent circumstances. They ended up doing what they could with what they had because thae lacked better options. That is the purpose of any force of last resort, to handle the unexpected. and it is better to have some tools than no tools, even if you end up using screwdrivers as hammers.

PS the CRV7-APKWS combination is also an effective ground attack system that would make a mess of a trailer full of Maviks and SEMTEX. A more cost effective CUAS strategy.

 

[MilEME09]

These numbers are based on them not just learning the aircraft but also everything to do with fighter ops. If you have an advance light fighter (AESA Radar, HOBS missiles, AAR capable, datalinks, etc), the more equivalent transition would be from a HEP II Hornet to an F-35. And I do think that could absolutely be done in less than 6 months. Probably a lot less.

Also, FLIT is Phase 3. They are still flying the turboprop in Phase 2. So really the light fighter idea is something akin to Phase IV or even Phase IV+.

I may have my phases confused, but lead in fighter training prior to conversion is what I am talking about. The next gen lead in fighter trainer program will take care of that. This way we are just doing conversion, we dont need an additional pilot stream of unneeded planes