The Tomahawk Con: A Case Study
The Tomahawks for Ukraine con started in mid-July 2025. There was then a rush of stories that Trump was thinking of sending the powerful cruise missile system to Ukraine and at the same time would free Ukraine to make long-range strike on Russia with US systems. The reporting, naturally, became excited, almost giddy,
and the Ukrainians, for one started imagining a future where they would devastate Russia with Tomahawks. Its worth noting that the White House did nothing to squelch the stories.
These stories only picked up pace in August and September, and soon it was not only a possibility that Trump might send Tomahawks to Ukraine, it seemed that he was tantalizingly on the cusp of doing so.
The Trump administration, revealingly, went to great lengths to spread these stories at this time. In late September, they confirmed a story
that Trump had discussed sending Tomahawks to Ukraine directly with Zelensky.
Here is the quote from the story showing the administration’s role in spreading the story.
President Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky he was open to lifting restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, but he didn’t commit to doing so during a meeting Tuesday, according to a senior U.S. official and a Ukrainian official.
In early October,
Trump went further and publicly stated that he was thinking of sending Ukraine Tomahawks. On Air Force One, while speaking to the press, Trump spread the story that Tomahawks to Ukraine was a serious possibility. It was throwing fuel on a roaring fire.
I (Trump) might say, ‘Look: if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks,’” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew to Israel. “The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon. And honestly, Russia does not need that.”
And the White House knew exactly what it was doing and how far such stories would spread. Soon Trump client commentators such as
Marc Thiessen, started loudly proclaiming that Trump was now on Ukraine’s side.
The late September/early October timeline is also important. This was after the Anchorage meeting (which more and more looks like an important moment when Trump and Putin coordinated plans for the rest of the year), and weeks after the Trump and Putin flunkeys had upped their negotiations about working out a financial deal.
That also started happening in August.
In other words, the Trump administration was working out the details of a deal with Putin privately but publicly was deceiving Europeans and Americans about what it would do to help Ukraine and hurt Putin. As part of the con, they wanted the public story spread but to keep the private negotiations secret.
We could say that it was the height of the con.
And sadly,
European leaders fell for it. Even in late October (once Trump realized he had gone too far and started walking back the possibility of sending Ukraine Tomahawks) Zelensky and European leaders were still wasting time planning on how to convince Trump to do something he would never do.
Here was a Ukrainian story on the subjectpublished on October 20.
He (Zelensky) emphasised that Ukraine is maintaining constant communication with European leaders who want to make a request to Trump regarding Tomahawk missiles, since European countries also have them.
“First of all, I would like to say that European countries also have Tomahawks. The issue is not just about Tomahawks as such. The question is about how weapons are used. You can have ATACMS, but how can you use them? The question is not only what kind of weapons you have, but how you can use them,” Zelenskyy said.
Now we can see just how effective the con was in giving destructive hope to Europeans and stopping them from understanding that they, and they alone need to take responsibility for helping Ukraine and combatting Russia. People had spent months wondering if Trump would do something that he would never do.
Instead of mobilizing resources, acting with purpose, coordinating actions, European leaders were dreaming about rainbows and butterflies. I have to say it drove me a little nuts. Until late September, I refused to even discuss the question of Tomahawks to Ukraine, as its seemed to be total and utter nonsense (bullshit for the less squeamish of readers). It made no sense if you look at everything Trump had done and believed for years. He was against attacks into Russia, against hurting Putin, against helping Ukraine, etc.
However, that story confirmed by the White House on September 26 was enough to deserve comment.
The most optimistic take, often pushed by Trump supporters who also claim to support Ukraine, was that this was some honest pivot by Trump and that from now on he would provide more concrete support for the Ukrainians. The exact military support he would provide was not specified, though there was some surprising talk about the USA supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to the Ukrainians. Supposedly Zelensky asked Trump for these, and the US president did not say no.
Note—if Trump supplies Tomahawks and lets Ukraine use them against targets in Russia, that is indeed a massive pivot and needs to be recognized as such.
Look, it was a con, partly I feel sheepish that I even speculated at the time that there was any chance that Tomahawks would be sent. We need to understand and admit now that there was no chance of this at any time.
That is the kind of truth that is now not deniable by Europeans. They were played for patsies, openly and deliberately, and they fell for it. Their actions have hurt Ukraine and their own security.
