I am going to say...this is nothing new.
America has, time after time, decade after decade, century after century, shown that they are not in line or in tune with western values.
Slavery, one of the last to get rid of it, and it took 750k dead.
WW1, it took the threat of Mexico joining the central powers to galvanize the Americans.
WW2, it took Pearl Harbor. Hitler running rampant in Europe...meh. Japan touching their boats, nuke and bomb everything.
Post WW2, they were running around with Jim Crow laws until the 1960s.
And when they took a leadership role, the west looked at them like they were nuts. Vietnam, nuts. Iraq 2003, nuts.
The USA isn't a global power that has two way flow of ideas. It exports its ideas and resists foreign ones. 40 percent of Americans have never left the USA, 10 percent of Americans have never left their own state. The Americans don't, by in large, know the world outside their own borders.
So America going off the rails is simply it reverting to the mean. It's still an incredibly brain dead and stupid course of action, but America has done it before and will do it again. The post world war 2 order built by the USA was an arberation.
So with that said, while the USA is in its self-immolation phase, its less what they are doing and what the world does in response.
China has already filled the US soft power role, and will continue to do so as the opinion, trust, global image and reputation of the USA continues to free fall. China, with it's financial reserves can do this in a way the west, debt ridden and lacking initiative simply cannot. Africa and South America will be Chinas playground, not the US or Europe. Asia will too, to an extent. Those that aren't in beijings line of fire will welcome the trade and investment, those that are will continue to distrust them, but make no mistake, China is the real winner here. They are the only nation that has proven that they can go toe to toe with the USA on the trade and diplomatic front and not blink, which makes China a soft power superpower.
Europe has a massive opportunity here. They have the financial and industrial capacity to go toe to toe with the USA, same as China. What they lack is the political will. But Europe, post WW2 has played the good partner with the USA only because they lived through 700 years of infighting and having the Americans as a external power to back made more sense than starting to squabble about which European power was going to dominate the rest. Germany purposely held back militarily, the UK offloaded its global responsibilities, France accepted German economic might, all the rest played nice because the big 3 were playing nice, and the big three played nice because they accepted America's role as a leading power. With the USA now pulling out of that role, Europe can go back to squabbling or they can finish the European project and reclaim it's status as a leading power. The Europe that conquered the world didn't just die, it was exhaused and put down the sword. That old Europe can now pick it back up and instead of focusing it outwards, focus it inwards. Integrated European Army. Fast track approval of European Armies throught Europe via strategic corridors. Joint borrowing. Joint military purchases. Get European economy of scale up and running. Rebuild their arm industries. Intergrate their arm industries. Europe doesn't need 3-5 different fighters, it needs 1 or 2. Europe doesn't need 10 different tanks, it needs 2 or 3. Get everyone working together and financially starve the rest. A further intergrated Europe can easily shrug off the Americans and keep Ukraine fighting for another 10 years if it needed to given it's financial and hard power. A EU with 27 member states, of which the Americans can pick off one or two to derail the project never can.
Canada with it's geography will always be heavily influenced by the USA, but it doesn't need to be a vassal state. We have two oceans, and soon a third will be opening up for trade. We need to improve our infrastructure and networds away from a north south model and more to a east west model. And no, I'm not talking provinces trading with each other, although that helps. I'm talking getting goods on ships and trading to Europe and Asia. Anything Canada can do to decouple ourselves from the USA has to be done, and fast. The biggest threat is the Americans put on the mask that they are normal in 2028. They are not. As discussed earlier, they have usually been offside of the rest of the western world, and MAGA isn't going away. There are more extreme versions of Trump waiting out there, and the MAGA takeover of the Republican party isn't going to be undone. President Nick Fuentes is a possibility down the line. So Canada needs to accept the fact that anti trade, anti west politicans like JD Vance may be in power, if not in 2028, then 2032. The biggest error Canada made was thinking Trump was a one time phenomenon, and that Biden represented the norm. Biden was a outlier, MAGA is the norm. So pipelines to coasts, more port expansions, more road networks to ports, more trade via CETA and TPP, more strategic partnerships outside of the USA. The time to partner with SAAB and intergrate into the European sphere isn't now, it was in 2018-2019, but it's better late than never. Canada is fortunate that so much of what we sell to the USA is wanted all around the world and we should do everything in our power to shift away from the USA as much as we can before 2036. 2036 being the date CUSMA actually expires. If we haven't moved away from the USA by then, when President JD Vance could be in his second term then we are truly cooked as a nation. For far too long we have traded with the USA because it was easy. Build a road, build a pipeline, lay some power line, and accept to the worlds biggest economy was at our fingertips. We need to prepare for a world where CUSMA dies a real death in 2036, and all that ease of access is gone. So we have two choices. Be fully integrated in the global economy or become a US vassal state.
Ukraine and Taiwan. Unless Europe steps up, Ukraine is finished. A good test to see if Europe means to get serious again is what happens when the USA washes its hands of the conflict. If Europe can step up and fill the gap, that's a great sign that the old continent is waking up. If Ukraine is slowly beaten down with the lack of US arms and ammo, then it's clear the EU is still just pinning their hopes that the USA will save their bacon. NATO, for all intents and purposes, is dead. If Russia attacks in the baltics, the USA will provide arms and ammo, that's it. No US battalions rushing through German to fight the Russians, Red Storm Rising style. Limited US support at most, washing their hands at worse. Which should be fine, Russia has the GDP of Italy, or Canada. Europe should be able to smack the Russian back to moscow easier than Napoleon or Hitler. Should. If it's 27 member states running around with their hair on fire Russia will absolutely eat the Baltics, and then try their hand at Poland. Taiwan is more screwed. MAGA cares about containing China, but I don't think they have any desire to fight China. Taiwan will get arms and Ammo, but they will be blockaded by the Chinese Navy. Every tank, every drone, every drop of oil, once Taiwan expends it, they are never getting it back. China will grind them down, despite horrific losses. China is looking at the Russia Ukraine war and learning one lesson. As long as they are willing to stomach the casualties, they will win. Russia is grinding down Ukraine despite Europe and the USA before Trump supplying them by land. Taiwan, needing to be supplied by sea, will die. Nobody is stepping up if the USA doesn't, nobody has the Navy to fight the Chinese other than the USA. The tell here is the US rush to build semiconductors in the USA. They don't see TSMC being around much longer.
The Americans have signalled to the world that it really doesn't give a damn anymore, traditional enemies are partners, allies are enemies, and guarantees mean absolutely nothing. And this isn't just a trump thing. Biden slow dripped Ukraine arms and ammo to avoid "escalation" with russia. By the time Ukraine got what they needed Russia was sitting on 20 percent of their country. This is what the USA is. Selfish, self centered, ignorant and proud of it. The sooner the world wakes up to this reality, the better.
www.reuters.com
www.thecanadianpressnews.ca
dfrlab.org
financialpost.com
