Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[MilEME09]

PBO walks back some of his comments about the budget, interesting but the damage is already done

Budget Watchdog Regrets Calling Canada’s Fiscal Position ‘Stupefying’

Canada’s budget watchdog is walking back his most charged criticisms of Mark Carney’s fiscal policy, but says the government’s decision to drop its debt-to-GDP guideline is a major shift that warrants more public debate.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Czech_pivo]

.

What grates on the entitled masses of mostly left leaning people in this country is that all of that needs to now be earned. How dare the US not promote, respect, nor give preferential treatment to Canada (as we rely entirely on them for our economic and military survival).

The situation has changed. Time for everyone else to adapt. Choose the path carefully, but I doubt any other country has better intentions for us than the US does.

We rely mostly on them for our economic 'survival' BECAUSE of the FTA agreed upon by Mulroney and Reagan. Do you understand that? That agreement was made, by both sides, to tie the economies of BOTH countries together going forward.

Now, which side is in the process of screwing over the other? Which side re-negotiated the morphed FTA into this thing called 'USMCA' and stood in front of the American public and called it 'the greatest trade agreement ever'?

I have no doubt that even if we had been spending 2% or just beyond that at 2.2% way back in 2015 and every year since then till today that it would NOT have mattered one bit in our trade negotiations with Trump. None.

And it you mean 'lackey' or 'vassal' or 'compliant resource cupboard to exploit at will', than Yes, I agree.

 

[Czech_pivo]

PBO walks back some of his comments about the budget, interesting but the damage is already done

Budget Watchdog Regrets Calling Canada’s Fiscal Position ‘Stupefying’

Canada’s budget watchdog is walking back his most charged criticisms of Mark Carney’s fiscal policy, but says the government’s decision to drop its debt-to-GDP guideline is a major shift that warrants more public debate.

www.bloomberg.com

That's because the money mangers in NYC and London gave their head a shake and said, 'have you looked around the room at the others?'

 

[brihard]

We rely mostly on them for our economic 'survival' BECAUSE of the FTA agreed upon by Mulroney and Reagan. Do you understand that? That agreement was made, by both sides, to tie the economies of BOTH countries together going forward.

Now, which side is in the process of screwing over the other? Which side re-negotiated the morphed FTA into this thing called 'USMCA' and stood in front of the American public and called it 'the greatest trade agreement ever'?

I have no doubt that even if we had been spending 2% or just beyond that at 2.2% way back in 2015 and every year since then till today that it would NOT have mattered one bit in our trade negotiations with Trump. None.

And it you mean 'lackey' or 'vassal' or 'compliant resource cupboard to exploit at will', than Yes, I agree.

Military spending, fentanyl, trade balance… It’s all pretext. The U.S. has tariffed literally everybody. The Trump administration has adopted a fundamentally mercantilist attitude to trade. They believe in it. That’s the word coming back from those who work in international trade and deal with U.S. counterparts in the private sector. Our legally binding CUSMA treaty is the only thing that protects Canada from more of it across the board. There isn’t something we can do more right, or do better that will shift them from it; the pretexts are all just necessary to invoke executive tariffs authorities (legal or not) that allow Trump to end run Congress on taxation of U.S. citizens. Trump and Trumpism mean tariffs; he has been able to lie to his base and convince them that tariffs are not levied on Americans and that they’re a net economic good. Bluntly, I don’t have faith that the population at large is economically literate enough to push back broadly on this to the point where it sways Trump’s populist attitudes.

Canadians need to grit their teeth and come to understand that this is the reality for the foreseeable future, and that our economic policy will have to include navigating around U.S. tariffs. Even where they’re implemented illegally, we’re stuck with the pace of the courts, and businesses will have to assume that if the courts pry Trump’s hands off one lever he’ll just grab another one.

 

[Eaglelord17]

What kind of deal is Microsoft getting to set up that infrastructure here ?

I'm praying for not another Algoma or Stellantis...

Algoma is only a problem because of America.

They started the year with 200m in cash reserves, a solid game plan for the next 5 years and wouldn’t have needed any government money for the foreseeable future.

Instead our ‘greatest ally’ put a 50% tariff on steel which the majority of the product from Algoma was sold to America. Canada does not have a large enough market for coil and plate as what Algoma can produce and they lack alternative products as most places only make a very small number of products very efficiently in modern manufacturing to be competitive.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Military spending, fentanyl, trade balance… It’s all pretext. The U.S. has tariffed literally everybody. The Trump administration has adopted a fundamentally mercantilist attitude to trade. They believe in it. That’s the word coming back from those who work in international trade and deal with U.S. counterparts in the private sector. Our legally binding CUSMA treaty is the only thing that protects Canada from more of it across the board. There isn’t something we can do more right, or do better that will shift them from it; the pretexts are all just necessary to invoke executive tariffs authorities (legal or not) that allow Trump to end run Congress on taxation of U.S. citizens. Trump and Trumpism mean tariffs; he has been able to lie to his base and convince them that tariffs are not levied on Americans and that they’re a net economic good. Bluntly, I don’t have faith that the population at large is economically literate enough to push back broadly on this to the point where it sways Trump’s populist attitudes.

Canadians need to grit their teeth and come to understand that this is the reality for the foreseeable future, and that our economic policy will have to include navigating around U.S. tariffs. Even where they’re implemented illegally, we’re stuck with the pace of the courts, and businesses will have to assume that if the courts pry Trump’s hands off one lever he’ll just grab another one.

100% true

When I saw that the screwed over the Australians, by slapping a flat 10% tariff against them - who have a trade deficit with the US, who are in a Nuclear Attack Submarine agreement with them AND who do take military spending seriously - I knew that its a f*cking game to Trump.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Because we love our polls.

Nanos Tracker: Liberal Lead Narrows​

Nationally, Nanos now puts the Liberals at 39%, one point ahead of the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP sits at 10%, and the Bloc at 6%.

This is what the Liberals get for not banning more guns on December 6th.

 

[Altair]

Bank of Canada holds rates, says economy looks better than expected despite tariffs

The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate steady at 2.25% on Wednesday as widely expected, and Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving resilient overall to the effect of U.S. trade measures.

www.reuters.com

Inflation on target, economy showing signs of strength, 181k jobs added between September and November, BoC keeps rates steady at 2.25.

I cannot wait until PP starts complaining about inflationary deficits, weak GDP, and job losses.

#alternativefacts

 

[The Bread Guy]

(While polling Canadians saying they're Team Blue =/= party members getting out & voting @ a convention, but), Angus Reid survey says ....

Future of the CPC: A (declining) majority of Conservative voters would keep Poilievre as leader in January - Angus Reid Institute

Most CPC voters believe party is in ‘right place’ politically, but others believe it’s ‘too far to the right’ December 11, 2025 – Like snow blanketing the country, a quieting has settled upon caucus rumblings over the leadership of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. But as the days count down...

angusreid.org

How the survey was done:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 26 to Dec. 1, 2025, among a randomized sample of 4,025 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. The sample was weighted to be representative of adults nationwide according to region, gender, age, household income, and education, based on the Canadian census. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

If you want to really get into the weeds, full package (questions, further breakdowns, etc.) attached.

 

[MilEME09]

Bank of Canada holds rates, says economy looks better than expected despite tariffs

The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate steady at 2.25% on Wednesday as widely expected, and Governor Tiff Macklem said the economy was proving resilient overall to the effect of U.S. trade measures.

www.reuters.com

Inflation on target, economy showing signs of strength, 181k jobs added between September and November, BoC keeps rates steady at 2.25.

I cannot wait until PP starts complaining about inflationary deficits, weak GDP, and job losses.

#alternativefacts

next up comes December retail sales, if those are high, that will indicate consumer confidence going into the holidays and near year, a strong economy doesn't usually play well for a opposition.

 

[Brad Sallows]

next up comes December retail sales, if those are high, that will indicate consumer confidence going into the holidays and near year, a strong economy doesn't usually play well for a opposition.

That is the optimistic outlook, for which we should hope.

The pessimistic outlook, which some predict, is that efforts made by retailers to limit consequences of Trump's trade protectionism at least through Christmas will disintegrate in the new year.

My inclination is to believe there won't be disaster in the new year because the negatives turned out to not be as bad as predicted (partly because too many people had political interests in painting a glum picture) and the "invisible hand" stronger than many like to credit. Against that, the predictions I've read have originated with people in the retail business, not pundits spit-balling their own guesses.

 

[Quirky]

Everything is going great. Let’s not change a thing.

 

[Remius]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-trade-surplus-9.7011913

Surprising but good.

 

[Altair]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-trade-surplus-9.7011913

Surprising but good.

I was watching a aluminium industry rep talk on BNN Bloomberg, who was discussing how exports surged to Europe but have started going back to the USA.

Turns out, due to contractual reasons, the tariffs costs were being pushed onto the Canadian side so the industry stopped exporting to the USA and traded with Europe instead.

But now with new contracts coming into force, the American importer is paying the tariff and Canadian exports are going back to the USA.

So Canadian aluminium is just as profitable to Canadian business as before, it's the Americans bearing the brunt of the tariffs.

All of this because America does not produce enough aluminum to supply their own market.

Criminally stupid policy.

All this to say, not surprised to see metal products leading to a trade surplus, as the costs of the tariffs are being adjusted for