Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[Halifax Tar]

I predict a Conservative majority in 2026.

That might be asking for more than Canadians can give.... yet...

 

[Czech_pivo]

Time is not the friend of the LPC. They may have been better losing the spring election and restarting. I expect any defeat in the future will be devastating for the LPC.

They may have been better off, but would Canada?
In my humble opinion, no, not at all.
The rest of the world would not be as impressed or more impressed with PP as PM and the US certainly would not have been. If anything, the Trump administration would have less respect for PP than they do so for Carney. Please don’t forget that Trump himself has stated that he doesn’t like PP.

 

[Halifax Tar]

They may have been better off, but would Canada?
In my humble opinion, no, not at all.
The rest of the world would not be as impressed or more impressed with PP as PM and the US certainly would not have been. If anything, the Trump administration would have less respect for PP than they do so for Carney. Please don’t forget that Trump himself has stated that he doesn’t like PP.

That is one defiantly opinion on the matter.

 

[Altair]

The snow begins to softly fall,
A quiet blanket, covering all
The usual noise of worldly fight,
Beneath the season's gentle light.

Put down the arguments and the screen,
Forget the "us" , the "them", and that one single green
For here, beside the glowing tree,
A different world we ought to see.

Let polling numbers fade from mind,
And focus on the ties that bind.
The scent of pine, the cookie's scent,
For just a moment, let all arguments be spent.

We are just family, friends, and guests,
Sharing simple, human rests.
Not red, orange or some shade of blue,
Not left, center, right, or sovereignist too.

But Canadians all in the frightful cold night,
Perhaps we try to be a bit more polite
And find a moment's simple peace, outside and within
The world can wait 'til stars grow dim,
For now, we share this holiday hymn.

To the far left, the alt-right, the smart in-between,
May your holiday spirit be wonderfully keen.
Forget the blue hats, orange shirts, and the red-tinted glasses,
May kindness prevail as this festive time passes.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The snow begins to softly fall,
A quiet blanket, covering all
The usual noise of worldly fight,
Beneath the season's gentle light.

Put down the arguments and the screen,
Forget the "us" , the "them", and that one single green
For here, beside the glowing tree,
A different world we ought to see.

Let polling numbers fade from mind,
And focus on the ties that bind.
The scent of pine, the cookie's scent,
For just a moment, let all argument be spent.

We are just family, friends, and guests,
Sharing simple, human rests.
Not red, orange or some shade of blue, Not left, center, right, or sovereignist too.

But Cansidans all in the frightful cold night,
Perhaps we try to be a bit more polite
And find a moment's simple peace, outside and within
The world can wait 'til stars grow dim,
For now, we share this holiday hymn.


To the far left, the alt-right, the smart in-between,
May your holiday spirit be wonderfully keen.
Forget the blue hats, orange shirts, and the red-tinted glasses,
May kindness prevail as this festive time passes.

Merry Christmas.

 

[ArmyRick]

The snow begins to softly fall,
A quiet blanket, covering all
The usual noise of worldly fight,
Beneath the season's gentle light.

Put down the arguments and the screen,
Forget the "us" , the "them", and that one single green
For here, beside the glowing tree,
A different world we ought to see.

Let polling numbers fade from mind,
And focus on the ties that bind.
The scent of pine, the cookie's scent,
For just a moment, let all arguments be spent.

We are just family, friends, and guests,
Sharing simple, human rests.
Not red, orange or some shade of blue,
Not left, center, right, or sovereignist too.

But Canadians all in the frightful cold night,
Perhaps we try to be a bit more polite
And find a moment's simple peace, outside and within
The world can wait 'til stars grow dim,
For now, we share this holiday hymn.

To the far left, the alt-right, the smart in-between,
May your holiday spirit be wonderfully keen.
Forget the blue hats, orange shirts, and the red-tinted glasses,
May kindness prevail as this festive time passes.

Heck if the British and German in WW1 could take a few hours to stop shooting at each other to wish each other merry Xmas, so be it.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Rumors abound apparently

https://twitter.com/x/status/2003502839906390030

 

[brihard]

Rumors abound apparently

https://twitter.com/x/status/2003502839906390030

I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s plausible. He won that riding as CPC by 8%. However if you look at the ridings that historically made that region up before the 2025 redistribution, it’s all been solidly LPC or NDP for many years. If the LPC took him in, historical election results suggest he could keep it next time around.

Wait and see I guess.

 

[PuckChaser]

3k follower Twitter account sounds super credible.

 

[Halifax Tar]

I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s plausible. He won that riding as CPC by 8%. However if you look at the ridings that historically made that region up before the 2025 redistribution, it’s all been solidly LPC or NDP for many years. If the LPC took him in, historical election results suggest he could keep it next time around.

Wait and see I guess.

He actually tried to run for the LPC in 2015.

 

[IKnowNothing]

I’ll believe it when I see it, but it’s plausible. He won that riding as CPC by 8%. However if you look at the ridings that historically made that region up before the 2025 redistribution, it’s all been solidly LPC or NDP for many years. If the LPC took him in, historical election results suggest he could keep it next time around.

Wait and see I guess.

He also tried for the LPC nomination in 2015 and lost to Serre

 

[Eaglelord17]

Housing is a double edge sword, you want it affordable but you dont to destroy people's investments. If housing collapsed and people could afford homes the opposition would attack the government for destroying peoples investments.

A significant part of Canadas economy is housing (it is in the 20-30% range). They are desperate to prevent the bubble from popping as it is what is keeping up our false economy.

I couldn’t care less about peoples investments (and this is as a home owner who technically benefits from the increase in price), I care about having affordable housing.

Cheap housing/land means you don’t need to make as much to live, which means you can have cheaper wages, charge less, etc. and still have a strong economy. Higher housing prices screws every other part of the economy over, only those downsizing or living off the equity benefit.

The longer it goes on the worse it shall be when the house of cards comes crashing down.

 

[HavokFour]

Yep, was one of the potential crossers I've been watching.

Serré confirmed as Liberal candidate in Nickel Belt

“All three contestants – Gerry Guimond, Jim Bélanger and Pablo Gil-Alfau – accept the decision supporting Marc Serré as the federal Liberal candidate for the riding of Nickel Belt,” Gingras said in a news release.

www.sudbury.com

If he didn't fit in under the Trudeau liberals, he might now under Carney shifting things toward the centre / centre-right,

 

[CBH99]

I was only addressing his factually false claim that the other parties don’t hold leadership rules. I’m not taking part in any of the rest of it.



Let me post a challenge to you: come up with a very specific rule that you’d argue to put in place and I’ll see if I can find where it would go off the rails or break something that matters. I may need to ask clarifying questions to do so.

Could be fun and we all may learn things.

So I took some time to try and think of a rule that I would impliment, and given very recent events & since this conversation is already happening in real time anyway...

The rule I would propose is this: I would ban floor crossing

...

- If someone goes through the process of registering, being vetted, fundraising, running a political campaign (includes a ton of interviews with local and national media, debates, public appearances, speeches, etc etc), proposes a specific platform of what they will do if they are elected by their constituents as a candidate for a political party

- And if the people within that riding decide to elect said candidate by showing up at their local voting station & dropping more votes in the box for them than any of the other candidates that are also running & representing other political parties

- Then I believe that elected candidate should be legally obligated to represent his constituents in Parliament as a member of the party that his constituents voted for


If that person wants to run for reelection but as a member of a different political party, that's totally fine.

If the person has just irreconcilable differences with the current party or it's leadership, and feels like they just can't continue with that party for any given reason, that is also fine. (They can resign, and that resignation would trigger a byelection in that particular riding.)

The byelection would happen, and the citizens within that riding will then elect a new representative until the next general election gets called.

(And who knows, maybe that same person gets re-elected and goes right back to working for their constituents as a member of their new party )

...

The spirit of democracy is respected and upheld.

The citizenry can have confidence that their votes actually matter, and election results matter.

It eliminates a very obvious weakness in the system that political parties can use to subvert the democratic process that only benefits them

It eliminates the possibility of one party getting a majority status without the people actualy electing them to be a majority government.

This is probably the key reason why floor crossing should be banned, and is a very real possibility we could see played out precisely because floor crossing is allowed.



So that's one rule I would suggest. Let's see how off the rails & catastrophic it can be, Brihard

 

[CBH99]

So on another brilliant Liberal move, Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin has allowed for plastic straws to be made here but only for export to the USA and they are still banned for sale in Canada. Royal WTF?

Its dumb shit like this that will equal a thousand cuts that will sink the Liberals.

Gov’t Bending On Plastic Ban | Blacklock's Reporter

www.blacklocks.ca

Answer me this here folks...

So here in Alberta, we have 'the plastic ban.'

All utensils given out by fast food restaurants + straws are no longer permitted to be plastic, so most places have adopted bamboo.




And yet at night clubs, we all seem to be fully stocked with plastic straws to serve with the drinks...

Is there a loophole somewhere that I missed?

 

[brihard]

So I took some time to try and think of a rule that I would impliment, and given very recent events & since this conversation is already happening in real time anyway...

The rule I would propose is this: I would ban floor crossing

...

- If someone goes through the process of registering, being vetted, fundraising, running a political campaign (includes a ton of interviews with local and national media, debates, public appearances, speeches, etc etc), proposes a specific platform of what they will do if they are elected by their constituents as a candidate for a political party

- And if the people within that riding decide to elect said candidate by showing up at their local voting station & dropping more votes in the box for them than any of the other candidates that are also running & representing other political parties

- Then I believe that elected candidate should be legally obligated to represent his constituents in Parliament as a member of the party that his constituents voted for


If that person wants to run for reelection but as a member of a different political party, that's totally fine.

If the person has just irreconcilable differences with the current party or it's leadership, and feels like they just can't continue with that party for any given reason, that is also fine. (They can resign, and that resignation would trigger a byelection in that particular riding.)

The byelection would happen, and the citizens within that riding will then elect a new representative until the next general election gets called.

(And who knows, maybe that same person gets re-elected and goes right back to working for their constituents as a member of their new party )

...

The spirit of democracy is respected and upheld.

The citizenry can have confidence that their votes actually matter, and election results matter.

It eliminates a very obvious weakness in the system that political parties can use to subvert the democratic process that only benefits them

It eliminates the possibility of one party getting a majority status without the people actualy electing them to be a majority government.

This is probably the key reason why floor crossing should be banned, and is a very real possibility we could see played out precisely because floor crossing is allowed.



So that's one rule I would suggest. Let's see how off the rails & catastrophic it can be, Brihard

Apologies, but you’ll need to be more specific about exactly what act triggers a consequence for me to red team this. The ‘consequence’ you envision appears to be formally resigning their seat and thus causing. vacancy in the House? But what precisely is the trigger act? Resigning from one caucus and joining another are two distinct actions. Also, would it have to be the MP choosing to depart caucus, or would being fired by the party count?

He actually tried to run for the LPC in 2015.

Yep, was one of the potential crossers I've been watching.

Serré confirmed as Liberal candidate in Nickel Belt

“All three contestants – Gerry Guimond, Jim Bélanger and Pablo Gil-Alfau – accept the decision supporting Marc Serré as the federal Liberal candidate for the riding of Nickel Belt,” Gingras said in a news release.

www.sudbury.com

If he didn't fit in under the Trudeau liberals, he might now under Carney shifting things toward the centre / centre-right,

He also tried for the LPC nomination in 2015 and lost to Serre

Ok, that ups the likelihood then. He’s already someone who ideologically could stomach either and has already changed hats once to seek an opportunity. Looking briefly at his bio he appears to be a business type.

I’m still putting no stock on a random Twitter account’s rumour mongering, but the notion isn’t wacky. If this rumour gains traction he’ll need to say something sooner or later

Hell, maybe he’s floated it himself to see what sort of feedback he indirectly gets, or if it triggers a call from someone in the PM’s camp.

 

[ArmyRick]

This was a really good dive into politics and journalism, these are career professional journalist (Not Right wing or left wing influencers)

Some very good points come up especially on separation of State and media

 

[ArmyRick]

Rumors abound apparently

https://twitter.com/x/status/2003502839906390030

Nothing about this on the big players (CBC, CTV, Global, National Post).

If its going to happen, it will only happen when parliament is sitting. In the meantime, if the rumour is out there, he may get badgered by the media about the rumour.

 

[MilEME09]

Answer me this here folks...

So here in Alberta, we have 'the plastic ban.'

All utensils given out by fast food restaurants + straws are no longer permitted to be plastic, so most places have adopted bamboo.




And yet at night clubs, we all seem to be fully stocked with plastic straws to serve with the drinks...

Is there a loophole somewhere that I missed?

Having worked industry, they might not be plastic but the newer biodegradable stuff, which looks almost identical to plastic as complying with the federal ban, distributors cant even stock single use plastic straws.

 

[lenaitch]

So I took some time to try and think of a rule that I would impliment, and given very recent events & since this conversation is already happening in real time anyway...

The rule I would propose is this: I would ban floor crossing

...

- If someone goes through the process of registering, being vetted, fundraising, running a political campaign (includes a ton of interviews with local and national media, debates, public appearances, speeches, etc etc), proposes a specific platform of what they will do if they are elected by their constituents as a candidate for a political party

- And if the people within that riding decide to elect said candidate by showing up at their local voting station & dropping more votes in the box for them than any of the other candidates that are also running & representing other political parties

- Then I believe that elected candidate should be legally obligated to represent his constituents in Parliament as a member of the party that his constituents voted for


If that person wants to run for reelection but as a member of a different political party, that's totally fine.

If the person has just irreconcilable differences with the current party or it's leadership, and feels like they just can't continue with that party for any given reason, that is also fine. (They can resign, and that resignation would trigger a byelection in that particular riding.)

The byelection would happen, and the citizens within that riding will then elect a new representative until the next general election gets called.

(And who knows, maybe that same person gets re-elected and goes right back to working for their constituents as a member of their new party )

...

The spirit of democracy is respected and upheld.

The citizenry can have confidence that their votes actually matter, and election results matter.

It eliminates a very obvious weakness in the system that political parties can use to subvert the democratic process that only benefits them

It eliminates the possibility of one party getting a majority status without the people actualy electing them to be a majority government.

This is probably the key reason why floor crossing should be banned, and is a very real possibility we could see played out precisely because floor crossing is allowed.



So that's one rule I would suggest. Let's see how off the rails & catastrophic it can be, Brihard

Your scenario ties the status of an MP to a tie to a particular party. As previously mentioned, political parties are not mentioned in the Constitution.

What if the opposite were occur: for whatever reason, the party kicks the member out of caucus. Would they cease to be an MP, since they no longer represent the party they ran under? That would be tantamount to the party overriding the democratic wishes of the electorate of the riding.