I know y'all don't love my opinions- but please hear me out on this.
I think mass non-compliance is trap, and walking into it is major strategic mistake. Think about it, everything about the situation points to the government
not wanting large scale compliance. Many individual compensation values are too low. The program is underfunded, likely by an order of magnitude. They're actively warning of "first come first served." They still don't have a tight plan to actually recover any major volume.
So they've actively made compliance as unattractive as possible, and are failing to budget or plan for implementation of mass compliance. In my opinion writing all the above off as a giant FU from the anti's is a very risky underestimation of the opponent.
Why?
From the perspective of the PMO it (mass non-compliance) lets them pay lip service to the anti's, go through the motions as cheaply as possible and
hopefully move on to focus on the serious economic and geopolitical issues of the day. ( Insert cynical George Bush on aircraft carrier meme here). Maybe they're forced to find a couple hundred million extra to
magnanimously (cynicism) respond to "encouraging, higher than expected uptake." Maybe they're forced to empower a small taskforce to keep the anti's off their back. But above all else they get to move on having "done the thing"
Conversely, widespread compliance blows the issue wide open. It creates a massively eyewatering price tag for compensation*- or the prospect of a class action lawsuit to avoid such. It makes them confront the logistical issue of actually implementing the confiscation and destruction of millions of firearms- without the support of the provinces or major police forces. Frankly- it creates leverage to make them want to find an off ramp- some combo of registration and /or grandfathering. And the strategy can go beyond that into full on malicious compliance. They say first come first served- what if everyone submits at the same time? A - system crashes due to unplanned volumes (more egg), B- harder to justify not paying out.
*IMO CCFR should mirror the registry and calculate A- the value at listed comp, and B the value at FMV to prepare for the class action lawsuit and prevent ensure transparency of data.
From the perspective of the hardcore anti's widespread non-compliance is losing a battle to win the war. The PMO might be happy to move on, but they won't be. They'll spin the non-compliance and build a narrative that the non-compliance is proof that the "law abiding gun owner" is a myth, and that none of us can be trusted. They'll have the gun lobby's own figures and claims to point to as evidence of just how many now prohibited firearms are in so many hands- how widespread the "issue" is. They'll push for the task force detailed in the CCFR video posted by
@Lumber, using all the tools at their disposal come after us/you. But above all else they will wait until god forbid if/when a major shooting or two is committed with a firearm on the list. Then they will stand up on their soapbox and scream for all to hear that it could have been prevented but for the criminals formally known as "law abiding gunowners" who refused to comply with the law- then they go for the knockout punch.
Food for thought.
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