Europe

[GR66]

Let's hypothetically say that over the next decade or so Europe truly heeds the signals from the United States that they need to be responsible for their own defence and rebuild their militaries to the point that they can defend against Russia on their own (including a continental nuclear umbrella). If that were to happen then would they be as willing as they are now to have US troops stationed on European soil? To have US Generals/Admirals in overall command of NATO forces? If Europe no longer needs the US to defend itself against Russia does it even need NATO at all?

Is the US in effect risking turning what is essentially a continental client state (European NATO) into a potential geopolitical rival?

 

[Good2Golf]

Let's hypothetically say that over the next decade or so Europe truly heeds the signals from the United States that they need to be responsible for their own defence and rebuild their militaries to the point that they can defend against Russia on their own (including a continental nuclear umbrella). If that were to happen then would they be as willing as they are now to have US troops stationed on European soil? To have US Generals/Admirals in overall command of NATO forces? If Europe no longer needs the US to defend itself against Russia does it even need NATO at all?

Is the US in effect risking turning what is essentially a continental client state (European NATO) into a potential geopolitical rival?

I don’t think America strategically writ large has thought this one through in any meaningful degree. There is a slow but unquestionable realization within Europe, that America no longer represents the deterrent capability (will or actions) that it represented post-WW2. America saying it may choose not to honour NATO Article 5 declared by other members in the future, as well as its soft position against the very state that resulted in NATO’s formation originally, cannot be written off as a transient situation. As Europe fortifies its security posture, there will likely come a day where intra-Euro discussion includes ‘dis-inviting’ American from its territories. SOFAs have cancellation clauses in them. Whether NATO proper survives, I have no doubt that some form of collective Eurocentric security alliance (which may include an invited Canada, possibly AUS/NZ as well) will emerge, independent of a self-isolating America.

We shall see in the coming years.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don’t think America strategically writ large has thought this one through in any meaningful degree. There is a slow but unquestionable realization within Europe, that America no longer represents the deterrent capability (will or actions) that it represented post-WW2. America saying it may choose not to honour NATO Article 5 declared by other members in the future, as well as its soft position against the very state that resulted in NATO’s formation originally, cannot be written off as a transient situation. As Europe fortifies its security posture, there will likely come a day where intra-Euro discussion includes ‘dis-inviting’ American from its territories. SOFAs have cancellation clauses in them. Whether NATO proper survives, I have no doubt that some form of collective Eurocentric security alliance (which may include an invited Canada, possibly AUS/NZ as well) will emerge, independent of a self-isolating America.

We shall see in the coming years.

I wonder think that there is alot of hand wringing going on in Australia at the moment. Their entire Aukus gamble is decidedly looking like it might have been built on sand.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Is the US in effect risking turning what is essentially a continental client state (European NATO) into a potential geopolitical rival?

The whole reason the EU was ramped up to its current levels (of bureaucracy) was to build a unified economy of 300,000+ people to act as a stiff competitor to the US - a geopolitical rival in other words.

But this has proven to be a complete failure because 'Europe'


Fact Check: Has the economic gap between Europe and the United States increased in the past decade?

In recent years, the U.S. economy has grown at a faster rate than the European Union’s, which is currently made up of 27 member states.

According to the World Bank, in the period 2008-2023, EU GDP grew by 13.5% (from $16.37 trillion to $18.59 trillion) while U.S. GDP rose by 87% (from $14.77 to $27.72 trillion). The UK’s GDP increased by 15.4%. In 2023, EU GDP was 67% of U.S. GDP — down from 110% in 2008.

Accounting for population, EU GDP per capita as a percentage of U.S. GDP per capita fell from 76.5% in 2008 to 50% in 2023.

The major factor for this widening economic gap is a discrepancy in productivity, according to the Draghi report on EU competitiveness. The report notes that, out of the largest fifty technology firms in the world, only four are in Europe.

Fact Check: Has the economic gap between Europe and the United States increased in the past decade? | Econofact

econofact.org

 

[Good2Golf]

The whole reason the EU was ramped up to its current levels (of bureaucracy) was to build a unified economy of 300,000+ people to act as a stiff competitor to the US - a geopolitical rival in other words.

But this has proven to be a complete failure because 'Europe'


Fact Check: Has the economic gap between Europe and the United States increased in the past decade?

In recent years, the U.S. economy has grown at a faster rate than the European Union’s, which is currently made up of 27 member states.

According to the World Bank, in the period 2008-2023, EU GDP grew by 13.5% (from $16.37 trillion to $18.59 trillion) while U.S. GDP rose by 87% (from $14.77 to $27.72 trillion). The UK’s GDP increased by 15.4%. In 2023, EU GDP was 67% of U.S. GDP — down from 110% in 2008.

Accounting for population, EU GDP per capita as a percentage of U.S. GDP per capita fell from 76.5% in 2008 to 50% in 2023.

The major factor for this widening economic gap is a discrepancy in productivity, according to the Draghi report on EU competitiveness. The report notes that, out of the largest fifty technology firms in the world, only four are in Europe.

Fact Check: Has the economic gap between Europe and the United States increased in the past decade? | Econofact

econofact.org

Interestingly, European total debt in 2025 was 17T USD, about the same is its total annual GDP.

U.S. debt was 37T USD for only 27T USD. So 1.37x more debt than GDP. The U.S. has been accused of ’disproportionate borrowing’ to grow its GDP. Numerically, that seem to be true.

 

[GR66]

Interestingly, European total debt in 2025 was 17T USD, about the same is its total annual GDP.

U.S. debt was 37T USD for only 27T USD. So 1.37x more debt than GDP. The U.S. has been accused of ’disproportionate borrowing’ to grow its GDP. Numerically, that seem to be true.

That's the benefit of being the Global Reserve Currency.

 

[Good2Golf]

That's the benefit of being the Global Reserve Currency.

…for now…