Europe

[GR66]

Let's hypothetically say that over the next decade or so Europe truly heeds the signals from the United States that they need to be responsible for their own defence and rebuild their militaries to the point that they can defend against Russia on their own (including a continental nuclear umbrella). If that were to happen then would they be as willing as they are now to have US troops stationed on European soil? To have US Generals/Admirals in overall command of NATO forces? If Europe no longer needs the US to defend itself against Russia does it even need NATO at all?

Is the US in effect risking turning what is essentially a continental client state (European NATO) into a potential geopolitical rival?

 

[Good2Golf]

Let's hypothetically say that over the next decade or so Europe truly heeds the signals from the United States that they need to be responsible for their own defence and rebuild their militaries to the point that they can defend against Russia on their own (including a continental nuclear umbrella). If that were to happen then would they be as willing as they are now to have US troops stationed on European soil? To have US Generals/Admirals in overall command of NATO forces? If Europe no longer needs the US to defend itself against Russia does it even need NATO at all?

Is the US in effect risking turning what is essentially a continental client state (European NATO) into a potential geopolitical rival?

I don’t think America strategically writ large has thought this one through in any meaningful degree. There is a slow but unquestionable realization within Europe, that America no longer represents the deterrent capability (will or actions) that it represented post-WW2. America saying it may choose not to honour NATO Article 5 declared by other members in the future, as well as its soft position against the very state that resulted in NATO’s formation originally, cannot be written off as a transient situation. As Europe fortifies its security posture, there will likely come a day where intra-Euro discussion includes ‘dis-inviting’ American from its territories. SOFAs have cancellation clauses in them. Whether NATO proper survives, I have no doubt that some form of collective Eurocentric security alliance (which may include an invited Canada, possibly AUS/NZ as well) will emerge, independent of a self-isolating America.

We shall see in the coming years.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I don’t think America strategically writ large has thought this one through in any meaningful degree. There is a slow but unquestionable realization within Europe, that America no longer represents the deterrent capability (will or actions) that it represented post-WW2. America saying it may choose not to honour NATO Article 5 declared by other members in the future, as well as its soft position against the very state that resulted in NATO’s formation originally, cannot be written off as a transient situation. As Europe fortifies its security posture, there will likely come a day where intra-Euro discussion includes ‘dis-inviting’ American from its territories. SOFAs have cancellation clauses in them. Whether NATO proper survives, I have no doubt that some form of collective Eurocentric security alliance (which may include an invited Canada, possibly AUS/NZ as well) will emerge, independent of a self-isolating America.

We shall see in the coming years.

I wonder think that there is alot of hand wringing going on in Australia at the moment. Their entire Aukus gamble is decidedly looking like it might have been built on sand.