Canada moves to 2% GDP end of FY25/26 - PMMC

[ytz]

We are good at reading between the lines. It seems to be difficult to read what is on the lines.

It's because anything definitive is really hard at this stage. DIA is still ramping and they are working on operationalizing that strategy. And it's hard to know on specific things how the strategy shakes out. Do we just declare GM Oshawa a strategic partner and ensure all future trucks are based on the Silverado? There's questions on how to operationalize the letter and intent of the strategy. And DIA is working on that. We're supposed to start seeing some strategic partners declared this summer.

None of the CAF bases - outside of Cold Lake - have the expanse to conduct most of the missions that are faced now with the equipment that is needed/coming on line.

This has been recognized as a huge issue for years. Even the CLAWR isn't enough to train a lot of network enabled weapons. We need something like Australia's Woomera. And even they have issues. How do you live fire a JASSM?

 

[Kirkhill]

It's because anything definitive is really hard at this stage. DIA is still ramping and they are working on operationalizing that strategy. And it's hard to know on specific things how the strategy shakes out. Do we just declare GM Oshawa a strategic partner and ensure all future trucks are based on the Silverado? There's questions on how to operationalize the letter and intent of the strategy. And DIA is working on that. We're supposed to start seeing some strategic partners declared this summer.



This has been recognized as a huge issue for years. Even the CLAWR isn't enough to train a lot of network enabled weapons. We need something like Australia's Woomera. And even they have issues. How do you live fire a JASSM?

It is not just at this point in time unfortunately. It seems to be endemic.

I think the last time that anybody said anything definitive it was about buying 12 nuclear subs. Which were countermanded.

And nobody has done anything that silly ever again.

 

[ytz]

It is not just at this point in time unfortunately. It seems to be endemic.

I think the last time that anybody said anything definitive it was about buying 12 nuclear subs. Which were countermanded.

And nobody has done anything that silly ever again.

Among many reasons why I say we need a new defence strategy. The Industrial Strategy should be a piece of a larger plan.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

I think now would be a good time to look at how we even come up with defense plans and strategies: It may be time to dust off the excellent book by major John Hasek: The Disarming of Canada (Key Porter Books, 1987) and start thinking about creating a proper "general staff" on the European model. One capable of timely analysis of needs and creation of approaches to deliver on proper defense. through proper military advice to the civilian masters, but one capable of making and supporting the arguments from the military point of view on the needs now and in the future, for the defense of Canada. Many lessons from that book still ring true today.

 

[dapaterson]

Back in '97 we were told to adopt a degreed officer corps, instead of an educated and moral officer corps.

We now reap what we sowed.

 

[daftandbarmy]

I think now would be a good time to look at how we even come up with defense plans and strategies: It may be time to dust off the excellent book by major John Hasek: The Disarming of Canada (Key Porter Books, 1987) and start thinking about creating a proper "general staff" on the European model. One capable of timely analysis of needs and creation of approaches to deliver on proper defense. through proper military advice to the civilian masters, but one capable of making and supporting the arguments from the military point of view on the needs now and in the future, for the defense of Canada. Many lessons from that book still ring true today.

A 'proper' General Staff...

If we had one you're assuming that anyone in a decision making role, especially politicians, would listen to them.

That's very 'glass half full' of you

 

[OldSolduer]

I think now would be a good time to look at how we even come up with defense plans and strategies: It may be time to dust off the excellent book by major John Hasek: The Disarming of Canada (Key Porter Books, 1987) and start thinking about creating a proper "general staff" on the European model. One capable of timely analysis of needs and creation of approaches to deliver on proper defense. through proper military advice to the civilian masters, but one capable of making and supporting the arguments from the military point of view on the needs now and in the future, for the defense of Canada. Many lessons from that book still ring true today.

Apparently the German General Staff were regarded as the best at one time.

 

[Brad Sallows]

More than a General Staff is needed. Proper high-level planning - industrialization, mobilization - is a civil-military venture.

 

[GK .Dundas]

I ve mentioned this before but at one time the Brits used to keep what they called the War Books. Basically a bunch of binders that covered the whole process of going to war. It was described an quite literally a How to book .
It covered all the legal steps, the economic ones ,medical, industrial and so forth.
If you ever get the chance watch the Falkland's Play. It actually covers some of the diplomatic and bureaucratic moves that a government has to take to actually go to war.

 

[ytz]

I think now would be a good time to look at how we even come up with defense plans and strategies: It may be time to dust off the excellent book by major John Hasek: The Disarming of Canada (Key Porter Books, 1987) and start thinking about creating a proper "general staff" on the European model. One capable of timely analysis of needs and creation of approaches to deliver on proper defense. through proper military advice to the civilian masters, but one capable of making and supporting the arguments from the military point of view on the needs now and in the future, for the defense of Canada. Many lessons from that book still ring true today.

This is just that old bias of "Soldiers were better when I was in uniform."

Having sat through discussions covering what you're talking about, I will call BS. We aren't lacking for competent staff officers. What we're lacking for, is a competent government that listens. And this drives negative reinforcing behaviour in the CAF.

An example. Did y'all know that we have national level emergency plans? And under those plans Transport Canada is supposed to be able to mobilize the civilian transport sector to enable transport resources in an emergency? When do you think was the last time they genuinely did that? Instead, the CAF has become the easy button. PSEPC needs to move one of the four Urban Search and Rescue Teams in Canada? They'll call CJOC and get a Herc or C-17 tasked. And the government won't say no. This is how we've ended up in a situation where the army has their readiness plans wrecked by fighting fires every summer now. And of course the CAF never says no. So we get caught in an endless doom loop. I've literally heard a Transport Canada exec say, "As long as you guys keep showing up, why should the rest of us even bother?"

There have been discussions with OGDs about them doing the things that they are supposed to do so that the CAF can be freed up for warfighting. Because if a large war actually breaks out and the CAF is stuck doing everything at home, we will not be able to deploy. Every soldier guarding a factory at home because PSPC didn't plan for their mandate to protect industry, is one less we can deploy and employ on defence tasks.

We've been having table top exercises where we assume there's no allied (including American) help as a way to do gap analysis that informs what we need to prioritize as sovereign capabilities going forward. The best thing the Government can do for the OGDs is have an exercise without the CAF as an option and force them all to see how much of their emergency mandates they can deliver without a single uniform.

If we're going to spend 5% on defence, including 1.5% on resiliency, the result is not going to be a military that is just a list of contributions. A ship here, a battle group there, a six pack, etc. It will have to be a military that has all the capabilities in house, and OGDs that can fill all their mandates, so that we can defend our interests in a sovereign manner. No counting on the Americans. Build a military from orbit to seabed that can for example protect our SLOCs to Asia and Europe without American help. And make sure that every other government department can do their own job, so that we are freed up to do ours.

There's elements of this change in mindset. But it requires more than the CAF leadership. We will need to move the rest of government. And that 1.5% is there to bring them along on that journey.

We need all this articulated in a proper defence strategy. Not just the traditional DPS that's an arms market shopping list.

 

[ytz]

I ve mentioned this before but at one time the Brits used to keep what they called the War Books. Basically a bunch of binders that covered the whole process of going to war. It was described an quite literally a How to book .
It covered all the legal steps, the economic ones ,medical, industrial and so forth.
If you ever get the chance watch the Falkland's Play. It actually covers some of the diplomatic and bureaucratic moves that a government has to take to actually go to war.

The Brits (among other allies) are regularly invited to give us advice. And it's fascinating to hear them have experience on literally every single obstacle we discuss. And while they don't have our geography, economically and institutionally they are probably the best model for us to learn from. I personally detest the tendency of the CAF to look at the Americans. Sure we are all jealous of the cool kit. But we'll never be that big and have the context to operate like that. We can and should be able to operate, as a military and government, more like the Brits.

 

[Eaglelord17]

The Brits (among other allies) are regularly invited to give us advice. And it's fascinating to hear them have experience on literally every single obstacle we discuss. And while they don't have our geography, economically and institutionally they are probably the best model for us to learn from. I personally detest the tendency of the CAF to look at the Americans. Sure we are all jealous of the cool kit. But we'll never be that big and have the context to operate like that. We can and should be able to operate, as a military and government, more like the Brits.

We are too arrogant to even consider listening to other nations experience. We pretend we are capable and knowledgeable yet as a institution we are barely holding it together.

Just look at the Mar Eng disaster where we amalgamated stokers, e-techs, and hull techs despite being told by the Brits it is a terrible idea don’t do it, as we are still recovering from said mistake and had to completely reverse it.

 

[Czech_pivo]

This is just that old bias of "Soldiers were better when I was in uniform."

Having sat through discussions covering what you're talking about, I will call BS. We aren't lacking for competent staff officers. What we're lacking for, is a competent government that listens. And this drives negative reinforcing behaviour in the CAF.

An example. Did y'all know that we have national level emergency plans? And under those plans Transport Canada is supposed to be able to mobilize the civilian transport sector to enable transport resources in an emergency? When do you think was the last time they genuinely did that? Instead, the CAF has become the easy button. PSEPC needs to move one of the four Urban Search and Rescue Teams in Canada? They'll call CJOC and get a Herc or C-17 tasked. And the government won't say no. This is how we've ended up in a situation where the army has their readiness plans wrecked by fighting fires every summer now. And of course the CAF never says no. So we get caught in an endless doom loop. I've literally heard a Transport Canada exec say, "As long as you guys keep showing up, why should the rest of us even bother?"

There have been discussions with OGDs about them doing the things that they are supposed to do so that the CAF can be freed up for warfighting. Because if a large war actually breaks out and the CAF is stuck doing everything at home, we will not be able to deploy. Every soldier guarding a factory at home because PSPC didn't plan for their mandate to protect industry, is one less we can deploy and employ on defence tasks.

We've been having table top exercises where we assume there's no allied (including American) help as a way to do gap analysis that informs what we need to prioritize as sovereign capabilities going forward. The best thing the Government can do for the OGDs is have an exercise without the CAF as an option and force them all to see how much of their emergency mandates they can deliver without a single uniform.

If we're going to spend 5% on defence, including 1.5% on resiliency, the result is not going to be a military that is just a list of contributions. A ship here, a battle group there, a six pack, etc. It will have to be a military that has all the capabilities in house, and OGDs that can fill all their mandates, so that we can defend our interests in a sovereign manner. No counting on the Americans. Build a military from orbit to seabed that can for example protect our SLOCs to Asia and Europe without American help. And make sure that every other government department can do their own job, so that we are freed up to do ours.

There's elements of this change in mindset. But it requires more than the CAF leadership. We will need to move the rest of government. And that 1.5% is there to bring them along on that journey.

We need all this articulated in a proper defence strategy. Not just the traditional DPS that's an arms market shopping list.

Do we currently, or have we in the past, sent officers here?

Joint Services Command and Staff College - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Should this be under consideration now and going forward if we currently do not send anyone there?

 

[ytz]

Do we currently, or have we in the past, sent officers here?

Yes. Among many other staff college exchanges with allies.

That's beside the point. All the advice in the world isn't going to do shit if we don't actually implement it. And the first step here is getting the rest of government and society to stop looking at and treating the CAF like a glorified fire department.

I actually think we need to send fewer officers to British Staff College and send more senior public servants instead. So they finally understand their roles in the defence of the country. The immaturity in OGDs really, really, really hurts the CAF. Forces us to be the default emergency department. Which then takes away from the warfighting role. By virtue of history and experience, the Brits have learned how to build up that emergency capacity in their OGDs so that MinDef isn't doing everything.

I've sat through planning exercises where in a hypothetical mobilization we'll deploy regular infantry and then reserve infantry to protect critical infrastructure. How are we mobilizing if the very people we need to mobilize to fight are sitting in plywood guard posts? Transport infrastructure protection is the mandate of TC. PSPC has a mandate to secure critical government and defence supply. Etc. For us to be able to do our job, they need to do theirs.

As long as defence was about contribution, none of this mattered. If we're saying we can't rely on the US, we will need to actually fix all this.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Yes. Among many other staff college exchanges with allies.

That's beside the point. All the advice in the world isn't going to do shit if we don't actually implement it. And the first step here is getting the rest of government and society to stop looking at and treating the CAF like a glorified fire department.

I actually think we need to send fewer officers to British Staff College and send more senior public servants instead. So they finally understand their roles in the defence of the country. The immaturity in OGDs really, really, really hurts the CAF. Forces us to be the default emergency department. Which then takes away from the warfighting role. By virtue of history and experience, the Brits have learned how to build up that emergency capacity in their OGDs so that MinDef isn't doing everything.

I've sat through planning exercises where in a hypothetical mobilization we'll deploy regular infantry and then reserve infantry to protect critical infrastructure. How are we mobilizing if the very people we need to mobilize to fight are sitting in plywood guard posts? Transport infrastructure protection is the mandate of TC. PSPC has a mandate to secure critical government and defence supply. Etc. For us to be able to do our job, they need to do theirs.

As long as defence was about contribution, none of this mattered. If we're saying we can't rely on the US, we will need to actually fix all this.

Question, is it the place of Sr CAF leaders to make the suggest to the Government that Sr PS individuals should be attending these courses? Are they or have they made these suggestions recently?

If they have the ability to make those suggestions, then the onus is on them to make the suggestions. Those in the PS might not, a) be aware of these courses, b) be not aware of what the course content entails, thus not grasping what the benefit to them is, c) be aware, but not wanting to be seen as overstepping their reach, and d) all of the above.

 

[ytz]

Senior public servants do attend courses at CFC Toronto. Nothing here is exceptionally novel. Except people doing their jobs.

 

[Booter]

This is just that old bias of "Soldiers were better when I was in uniform."

Having sat through discussions covering what you're talking about, I will call BS. We aren't lacking for competent staff officers. What we're lacking for, is a competent government that listens. And this drives negative reinforcing behaviour in the CAF.

An example. Did y'all know that we have national level emergency plans? And under those plans Transport Canada is supposed to be able to mobilize the civilian transport sector to enable transport resources in an emergency? When do you think was the last time they genuinely did that? Instead, the CAF has become the easy button. PSEPC needs to move one of the four Urban Search and Rescue Teams in Canada? They'll call CJOC and get a Herc or C-17 tasked. And the government won't say no. This is how we've ended up in a situation where the army has their readiness plans wrecked by fighting fires every summer now. And of course the CAF never says no. So we get caught in an endless doom loop. I've literally heard a Transport Canada exec say, "As long as you guys keep showing up, why should the rest of us even bother?"

There have been discussions with OGDs about them doing the things that they are supposed to do so that the CAF can be freed up for warfighting. Because if a large war actually breaks out and the CAF is stuck doing everything at home, we will not be able to deploy. Every soldier guarding a factory at home because PSPC didn't plan for their mandate to protect industry, is one less we can deploy and employ on defence tasks.

We've been having table top exercises where we assume there's no allied (including American) help as a way to do gap analysis that informs what we need to prioritize as sovereign capabilities going forward. The best thing the Government can do for the OGDs is have an exercise without the CAF as an option and force them all to see how much of their emergency mandates they can deliver without a single uniform.

If we're going to spend 5% on defence, including 1.5% on resiliency, the result is not going to be a military that is just a list of contributions. A ship here, a battle group there, a six pack, etc. It will have to be a military that has all the capabilities in house, and OGDs that can fill all their mandates, so that we can defend our interests in a sovereign manner. No counting on the Americans. Build a military from orbit to seabed that can for example protect our SLOCs to Asia and Europe without American help. And make sure that every other government department can do their own job, so that we are freed up to do ours.

There's elements of this change in mindset. But it requires more than the CAF leadership. We will need to move the rest of government. And that 1.5% is there to bring them along on that journey.

We need all this articulated in a proper defence strategy. Not just the traditional DPS that's an arms market shopping list.

This is a really good post. It mirrors the discussion and things I’ve seen as well. I think during Covid we saw how well our systems could deal with things like PPE depots across Canada for example. “Oops this whole warehouse is expired” “oops we didn’t anticipate having two regions activated at once”

When your departments whole job is being prepared getting caught off guard and activating the CAF and a couple others repeatedly (who then build their own plans…) doesn’t look good. It looks like the government crossing its fingers

 

[ytz]

The only thing I will blame the CAF for is not pushing back more. We accept our orders and run out to execute. The senior leadership should be asking, "Should we be doing this?", a lot more. They are doing that now. Hopefully, it translates into some change across government.

 

[YZT580]

This is a really good post. It mirrors the discussion and things I’ve seen as well. I think during Covid we saw how well our systems could deal with things like PPE depots across Canada for example. “Oops this whole warehouse is expired” “oops we didn’t anticipate having two regions activated at once”

When your departments whole job is being prepared getting caught off guard and activating the CAF and a couple others repeatedly (who then build their own plans…) doesn’t look good. It looks like the government crossing its fingers

Since Transport Canada is transferring most of its Aircraft to DND in order to help meet their cost saving quotas the notion that they will mobilize or even can mobilize goes out the window. Managing their a/c will come out of the 5% budget. If the a/c are going it stands to reason that their responsibilities are being transferred as well so that is more Forces personnel that will have to become "home guard". Information was on CBC last fall. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/transport-surveillance-environment-drones-defence-9.6982250

 

[ytz]

Since Transport Canada is transferring most of its Aircraft to DND in order to help meet their cost saving quotas the notion that they will mobilize or even can mobilize goes out the window. Managing their a/c will come out of the 5% budget. If the a/c are going it stands to reason that their responsibilities are being transferred as well so that is more Forces personnel that will have to become "home guard". Information was on CBC last fall. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/transport-surveillance-environment-drones-defence-9.6982250

Who said anything about managing their aircraft?

They have the mandate to go to Air Canada, WestJet, Air North, etc and put in place contracts for emergency airlift. And then to activate those as needed for the Government of Canada. That's just one example. But several OGDs have mandates where the CAF just ends up doing it because they don't.