Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Jarnhamar]

Boom?

Yup. Might be good incentive for the moderates to turn against the Death To America crew.

 

[NavyShooter]

BRRRRRRRRTTTTTT ....?

 

[HavokFour]

The timer has really started now. The US consumes 20M barrels of petroleum products per day, or 20% of global consumption, 400M barrels is going to go quick. This represents 1/3rd of all global reserves being released.

EDIT: In 2022 they released 200M barrels at around 1-1.5M barrels per day, and took 4 weeks before it worked into the system enough to see any meaningful impact. Lots of pain ahead, might want to top up.

IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict​

Archive

Further info on the 400M barrels, 172M barrels of that will be footed by the US.

US SPR currently sitting at ~413M barrels, this will bring it to a new record low.

US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserve

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels of oil from its strategic ‌petroleum reserve in a bid to reduce oil prices that have soared due to supply shocks from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[brihard]

Yup. Might be good incentive for the moderates to turn against the Death To America crew.

What are you gonna do, bomb every truck on the road?

Next time you’re out and about driving in a city try to notice just how many commercial vehicles there are that are have a box this size or bigger. Imagine trying to figure out from the air which of them are actually concealing a drone launcher. It would be like when we were bombing around Kandahar with warnings of a white and yellow Toyota Corolla VBIED…

 

[FJAG]

For real? This appears to me to be very silly,

It's really a good application of the KISS principle - lots and lots of simple systems on simple launchers that can be widely distributed and hidden in plain sight. C&C is an issue but the Iranians are a clever and innovative people notwithstanding their criminal leadership.

 

[Kirkhill]

It's really a good application of the KISS principle - lots and lots of simple systems on simple launchers that can be widely distributed and hidden in plain sight. C&C is an issue but the Iranians are a clever and innovative people notwithstanding their criminal leadership.

Reduced to targeting every Pepsi and bottled water delivery truck.

 

[PrairieFella]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031770453895713044

Mines or not, USV's are already a problem themselves.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031738100284641411

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031797732562567610

I dont think the Thai ship was a USV. Theres a close up photo of the hull breach floating around and it clearly blasted out, not in. My money is an ASM.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

We can read someones t shirt from space. Unless Iranians are launching drones from their backyards they have to be somewhat centralized. US and Israel should just start blasting drops operators/sites. Include some barracks and other locations with uniformed members.

Quite right. You can read a person's T-shirt. But looking for the people wearing the 100 T-shirts that say exactly what you are looking for out of a population of 93 million people with no known specific starting point, that's quite an undertaking.

 

[ytz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031882707030966565

 

[Jarnhamar]

What are you gonna do, bomb every truck on the road?

That's aggressive, I like it.

I would try some other steps leading up to that first though. Pay locals for information that leads to the mobile launcher vehicles, where they rearm, park over night, where the drivers live and so on. Also use some of the militaries versions of the car guys you mentioned to work their magic.

Start taking out vehicles. Yeah they're the white and yellow corolla of Iran, it would be lots of work.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Quite right. You can read a person's T-shirt. But looking for the people wearing the 100 T-shirts that say exactly what you are looking for out of a population of 93 million people with no known specific starting point, that's quite an undertaking.

I agree. I haven't bene following this very closely or if there's any "real" reason the US launched this. On the surface is the undertaking worth preventing Death to America and kill the Jews Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons?

 

[ytz]

What are you gonna do, bomb every truck on the road?

Next time you’re out and about driving in a city try to notice just how many commercial vehicles there are that are have a box this size or bigger. Imagine trying to figure out from the air which of them are actually concealing a drone launcher. It would be like when we were bombing around Kandahar with warnings of a white and yellow Toyota Corolla VBIED…

Half agree with you. You'd be surprised what we can do with sat imagery, known intelligence (particularly metrology) and AI these days. Toss in techniques like Coherent Change Detection and we can follow a known launcher back to base after they've left their launch site.

But an effort like this is time and resource intensive. It's not going to be quick. And I'm but sure they have the necessary assets in the region. You need JSTARS type GMTI persistently in addition to the satellite coverage. And you need hitters practically on speed dial to minimize collateral. Not easy.

 

[ytz]

Other than targeting their naval, air, drone, and ballistic capabilities, has the US/IDF been attacking any ground forces?

This:

Reports of loitering drones going after IRGC checkpoints and vehicles.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2031792105987645579

Hitting Basij is the first sign of an actually smart strategy. A hint of intelligence.