• Thanks for stopping by. Logging in to a registered account will remove all generic ads. Please reach out with any questions or concerns.

Iran Super Thread- Merged

The timer has really started now. The US consumes 20M barrels of petroleum products per day, or 20% of global consumption, 400M barrels is going to go quick. This represents 1/3rd of all global reserves being released.

EDIT: In 2022 they released 200M barrels at around 1-1.5M barrels per day, and took 4 weeks before it worked into the system enough to see any meaningful impact. Lots of pain ahead, might want to top up.

IEA Member countries to carry out largest ever oil stock release amid market disruptions from Middle East conflict

Archive

Further info on the 400M barrels, 172M barrels of that will be footed by the US.

US SPR currently sitting at ~413M barrels, this will bring it to a new record low.

 
Yup. Might be good incentive for the moderates to turn against the Death To America crew.
What are you gonna do, bomb every truck on the road?

Next time you’re out and about driving in a city try to notice just how many commercial vehicles there are that are have a box this size or bigger. Imagine trying to figure out from the air which of them are actually concealing a drone launcher. It would be like when we were bombing around Kandahar with warnings of a white and yellow Toyota Corolla VBIED…
 
For real? This appears to me to be very silly,
It's really a good application of the KISS principle - lots and lots of simple systems on simple launchers that can be widely distributed and hidden in plain sight. C&C is an issue but the Iranians are a clever and innovative people notwithstanding their criminal leadership.

🍻
 
It's really a good application of the KISS principle - lots and lots of simple systems on simple launchers that can be widely distributed and hidden in plain sight. C&C is an issue but the Iranians are a clever and innovative people notwithstanding their criminal leadership.

🍻

Reduced to targeting every Pepsi and bottled water delivery truck.
 
Please Disperse Naked Gun GIF



Mines or not, USV's are already a problem themselves.


I dont think the Thai ship was a USV. Theres a close up photo of the hull breach floating around and it clearly blasted out, not in. My money is an ASM.
 
We can read someones t shirt from space. Unless Iranians are launching drones from their backyards they have to be somewhat centralized. US and Israel should just start blasting drops operators/sites. Include some barracks and other locations with uniformed members.

Quite right. You can read a person's T-shirt. But looking for the people wearing the 100 T-shirts that say exactly what you are looking for out of a population of 93 million people with no known specific starting point, that's quite an undertaking.
 
What are you gonna do, bomb every truck on the road?
That's aggressive, I like it.

I would try some other steps leading up to that first though. Pay locals for information that leads to the mobile launcher vehicles, where they rearm, park over night, where the drivers live and so on. Also use some of the militaries versions of the car guys you mentioned to work their magic.

Start taking out vehicles. Yeah they're the white and yellow corolla of Iran, it would be lots of work.
 
Quite right. You can read a person's T-shirt. But looking for the people wearing the 100 T-shirts that say exactly what you are looking for out of a population of 93 million people with no known specific starting point, that's quite an undertaking.
I agree. I haven't bene following this very closely or if there's any "real" reason the US launched this. On the surface is the undertaking worth preventing Death to America and kill the Jews Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons?
 
What are you gonna do, bomb every truck on the road?

Next time you’re out and about driving in a city try to notice just how many commercial vehicles there are that are have a box this size or bigger. Imagine trying to figure out from the air which of them are actually concealing a drone launcher. It would be like when we were bombing around Kandahar with warnings of a white and yellow Toyota Corolla VBIED…
Half agree with you. You'd be surprised what we can do with sat imagery, known intelligence (particularly metrology) and AI these days. Toss in techniques like Coherent Change Detection and we can follow a known launcher back to base after they've left their launch site.

But an effort like this is time and resource intensive. It's not going to be quick. And I'm but sure they have the necessary assets in the region. You need JSTARS type GMTI persistently in addition to the satellite coverage. And you need hitters practically on speed dial to minimize collateral. Not easy.
 
We can read someones t shirt from space. Unless Iranians are launching drones from their backyards they have to be somewhat centralized. US and Israel should just start blasting drops operators/sites. Include some barracks and other locations with uniformed members.
Because the facilities are mostly surrounded by civilians the US would have to use precision fires be they missiles or bombs. There is a finite number of those in stock, not just in the US but throughout "the West". Those are exactly the same munitions that will be needed in any future conflict and our adversaries know that.

Our adversaries now and in the future have less concerns about collateral damage, and so can use dumb bombs and wide area effects.

Absent a clear military objective and "all-in" political support, the calculus probably leans toward keeping one's powder dry at this point...
 
Because the facilities are mostly surrounded by civilians the US would have to use precision fires be they missiles or bombs. There is a finite number of those in stock, not just in the US but throughout "the West". Those are exactly the same munitions that will be needed in any future conflict and our adversaries know that.

Our adversaries now and in the future have less concerns about collateral damage, and so can use dumb bombs and wide area effects.

Absent a clear military objective and "all-in" political support, the calculus probably leans toward keeping one's powder dry at this point...

"At this point."

At this point our government should be investing heavily in folks like Palmer Luckey, Ukrainian backyard mechanics and small shops like Roshel to drive the manufacture of large numbers of the cheapest, most precise weapons we can build at those price points. And do the best that we can.

Not aspire to perfection. We don't have that time. Just the best possible under the circumstances. And then work to improve as we fight.

Supporting SME will get us there faster than trying to dump more money into the economy through Bombardier or trying to wrangle more jobs out of Hyundai.

We need more companies like Roshel building drones.

And if we are concerned about jobs... How many people did Roshel employ? How many people does Roshel employ?


....

If the Yanks and Israelis can secure and maintain air dominance over Iran and establish and maintain the air cover that was maintained for a while over the Kurds, and should be re-established, then, with today's low cost precision, it becomes a mug's game to join the morality police, the Basij or the IRGC and attack your own people. You pull out the machine guns, the crowd will identify you to that F-18 circling overhead.

Then it is up to the politicians and their ROE.
 
Back
Top