I just thought I would revisit the North Atlantic battlefield and in particular the GIUK Gap.
The UK's First Sea Lord seems quite stressed about being able to contain a rejuvenated Russian submarine fleet at Murmansk.
So the GIUK Gap is a 1000 km wide funnel that has sides about 800 km deep, roughly the sea distance from Nord Kapp to the Shetlands. paralleled by the Greenland coast on th other side of the gap.
The base of the funnel is a coarse filter anchored by Iceland, the Faroes, the Shetlands, the Orkneys, the Hebrides and the island of Great Britain.
All of those islands and shores host runways for fast jets and large patrol aircraft. The also host a lot of flat spots for Vertical Take Off and Land aircraft and heicopters.
....
So
What are the assts available to defend that water?
As of December 2025 that water, the responsibility of NATO's Joint Force Command - Norfolk, in Norfolk, Virginia has been handed to a British admiral.
That admiral is now responsible for the naval operations in the GIUK gap and High North of the UK and the NORDEFCO countries.
NORDEFCO is the Nordic Defence Co-Operation alliance. It includes the Scandinavian countries of Denmark, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, along with Denmark's islands of Greenland and the Faroes, as well as Finaland.
This group of countries also makes up the meat of the Joint Expeditionary Force where they are joined by the three Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. They are also joined by the Netherlands.
And I know that the Netherlands are not part of JFC-Norfolk, they have their own JFC at Brunsum, but the Dutch Navy and the RN have been joined at the hip since 1689. Consequently, based on history, the Atlantic facing geography and my sense of the politics, I am going to assume that the Dutch will be involved in securing the GIUK Gap along with the JJFC-Norfolk group.
Assuming that Finland will have its hands full engaging the Russians along the full length of its border, threatening Murmansk and joining the Balts in containing the Russians in St Petersburg and Kaliningrad, along with its lack of blue water assets and Atlantic coast, I think it is fair to say that the job rightly falls to the UK, Denmark and Norway with an assist from the Dutch. Iceland plays a supporting role. Sweden will be backstopping Finland in Nordkapp and in the Baltic.
The land forces of the Scandivavian peninsula, Finland and the Balts are going to be heavily engaged containing the Russians and denying them access to the airfields covering the GIUK Gap.
Those airfields will supply the primary coverage of the Gap.
So first looking at the aerial assets available to the combined Air Forces of the UK, Norway and Denmark.
As it stands the patrol and intelligence assets of those three nations comprise
16x MQ-9s with 4 more on order by Denmark and Norway cosidering its own package.
14x P-8s
3x Rivet Joints
12x short range patrol and intelligence gathering aircraft
Fighter coverage is available from
110x Typhoons from the RAF
73x F35-As from Norway and Denmark with the Netherlands holding another 52 F35-As.
48x F35-Bs from the RAF/RN
The RAF has 14 tankers and the Netherlands has 9 that could be available to sustain the cover.
There are also about 350 helicopters of various types operated by the UK, Norway and Denmark available to assist operations - ASW. ASuW, Atk, Tpt and Utility.
....
Now what plugs the gap at sea?
4x SSBNs with 4x 21" torpedo tubes and 16 missiles with 12 MIRV warheads each. The UK holds 120 operational warheads.
7x SSNs with 6x 21" tubes and 38 stowed weapons - a mix of Tomahawk cruise missiles and Soearfish torpedoes.
9x SSKs with - 6 with 8x 21" tubes and 14 torpedoes and 3 with 4x 21" tubes, 20 torpedoes and 20 mines.
On the surface there are
6x Type 45 AAW DDGs with no strike length VLS cells
7x AAW FFGs from Denmark and the Netherlands with a total of 286 strike cells among them
15x ASW FFGs (Type 23s, Karel Doorman's, Absalons and Fridtjof Nansens)
That screen is backstopped by the RN's two CVs which supply additional flat spots for helicopters and F35Bs.
...
That is the 1980s version of the screen and some of the hulls were sailing then.
....
But Drones.
And the First Sea Lord is leaning heavily into them.
Self-powered drifters for ISR and comms relay
Powered small craft for ISR
Powered small craft for mine clearance
Powered small craft for anti-surface warfare
Large USVs for logistics and as launch platforms for additional missiles.
Small, medium and large Vertical Take Off and Land UAVs for ISR and ASuW
Large UAVs capable of launching from shore for ISR and ASuW
CCAs.
Gliding UUVs for underwater ISR
Powered Small, Medium, Large and Extra Large UUVs for ISR, ASuW, Minelaying and Mineclearing
Those drones are cheap and fast to produce and can be use with the existing fleets of older platforms and aircraft.
For example, the two carriers with their F35-Bs and Merlins, can also lift Chinooks, Apaches and Wildcats.
But they have also been experimenting with small Mallloy VTUAVs for logistics and for launching sonobuoys and torpedoes. As well ther have been experiments with Rocket Assistd launches of target drones as analogs for some less exquisite CCA/UCAVs. And they have managed to get a Mojave STOL MQ-9 to park and launch from a Queen Elizabeth deck.
The Dutch will be taking delivery of a pair of 1000 tonne OSVs they are rigging to operate autonomously in company with their AAW FFGs to add depth to their at sea magazines.
The Brits have a flotilla of 12m autonomous minehunters, and have just bought 20 autonomous boats for patrol of the UK's coastal waters. They are preparing to contract with civilians to supply ISR coverage of th gap sing drfters, gliders and small powered craft that can deploy UUVs. They are also looking for someone to supply a radar that looks a lot like a Sea Giraffe in the next few months, that can be mounted in numbers on small autonomous boats to provide a floating air search picket.
....
If there is a significant shift to UxVs then that opens up a lot of other ships as platforms toact as motherships.
By my count The UK, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and the Netherlands operate about 48 blue water OSVs of 1500 tonnes or greater that are equipped to act as motherships. Most of them are Coast Guard vessels or OPVs and Patrol Frigates.
...
All of which means for Canada more usable life out of the Halifaxes, potentially more capabilities from the AOPVs and also, more crossover with Coast Guard vessels acting as motherships to UxVs - even without having to go into harm's way themselves.
...
And the final piece of the puzzle is the use of containerized weaponry. If that AOPs deck isn't going to be used for Cyclones or Cormorants perhaps it could be used for some Mk70 PDS launchers and still leave room for V-Bat VTUAVs. the lower deck and crane would still be free to support UUV and USV operations.
...
I asked earlier how we fought until the Rivers and the Patrol subs get here.
Judging from the pace the Brits, Norwegians, Duth and Danes are buying into these drones this eems to be their immediate course of action.