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Close the strait to all traffic by doing the same thing Iran does. Invite China to deliver the community's ultimatum to Iran.
Iran Super Thread- Merged
- Thread starter JasonH
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I think I read that for every 5 freighters there would need to be 8 escorts ships.
So for 100 ships a day, 160 escort ships
Saudi Arabia has 16 ships? UAE 11?
Or put another way, given that ratio, if every ship was used, every day, with none down for repairs or maintenance, the gulf States could escort 16-20 ships per day.
Then factor in losses...
Your scenario of them doing "something" is a interesting one. Unfortunately there is really nothing they CAN do.
The USA has screwed them over and is leaving them with the mess.
I guarantee, rather than getting their expensive ships sunk for 10-15 freighters a day, they will just pay the toll.
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Would be cool to install this guys page as a widget, and have it display an update every time somebody posts in this thread. That way we can take credit for the market, and web traffic will start to flow to us to obtain our in-house expert analysis on the war.
You know I’m joking right?
OilPrice.net - AI-Powered Oil & Energy Market Intelligence
Real-time oil prices, market analysis, and AI-powered insights. Track WTI, Brent crude, natural gas, and energy markets.
www.oilprice.net
You know I’m joking right?
Halifax Tar
Army.ca Legend
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If we sill did milpoints I would give you a bunch. Great post!
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That assumes that there is no air support involved, and that they won't just close the Straits themselves...
It's economic and political suicide for them to roll over and pay their rival.
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So they close the straits, Iran closes the strait, both are like fighter jets circling each other while losing altitude.
As for air support, in the age of drones, I don't think that changes the calculus very much.
It's also suicide for them to try to escort ships through the strait using their entire navies and only getting 10-15 percent of normal traffic through, with ships still likely getting hit and sunk and taking naval losses.
So in terms of which version of suicide they want to engage in, 2 million dollars per ship or 1 dollar per barrel when oil is above 100 dollars per barrel is actually the less costly version of suicide.
Is funding Iran directly absolutely insane? Yes. But it will keep their economies afloat. If they are only getting 10-15 percent through using their naval assets, that's when they will absolutely die.
I feel for them. They didn't ask for this war, they didn't get a say, and now the Americans are leaving them with the mess and the bill. Brutal.
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This is the essence of the problem - that and a lack of a workable or achievable theory of victory
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The Strait was already "tolled".
The "toll" - the price only occasionally overtly demanded by Iran and paid - was for most countries to tolerate Iranian meddling beyond its borders, particularly against Israel, without having to endure much retaliation/punishment within its own borders. The tangible costs were mostly paid by Israel. That "toll" has largely been cancelled; Israel pushed the button to shift the toll onto others. They will have to deal with it, and perhaps with a toll at the entrance to the Red Sea if Iran and Yemen decide to pursue obvious weakness.
The "toll" - the price only occasionally overtly demanded by Iran and paid - was for most countries to tolerate Iranian meddling beyond its borders, particularly against Israel, without having to endure much retaliation/punishment within its own borders. The tangible costs were mostly paid by Israel. That "toll" has largely been cancelled; Israel pushed the button to shift the toll onto others. They will have to deal with it, and perhaps with a toll at the entrance to the Red Sea if Iran and Yemen decide to pursue obvious weakness.
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Yeah, it's brilliant. Once global oil traffic through the strait is back to 100 ships per day, at 2 million per ship, and Iran uses that money to rearm Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel is back to being "tolled" along with the rest of the world who has the Iran surcharge passed on to it.
5D chess.
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The Gulf States would have to get serious about their militaries, building more competent navies and air forces, those two are the least threat to the ruling class. They also need a more robust air defense system. They would still fear having a competent army. However they might be forced to get one if they want to be able to deal with Islamic Regime.
First thing I would do is get UAE/KSA to sit down and stop being stupid in Yemen and build a strategy to start really squeezing the Houthi's. First by making the the other Yemen players work together, taking out ISIS and generally improving life for the average person there. Start to offer large bribes to the various tribes that are part of the current Houthi territory to switch sides. Then start military operations to clear the Red Sea coastline of Houthi Influence.
At the same time, make a deal to ship oil by pipeline for the UAE/other Gulf States to the Red Sea and expand both pipelines and terminals to and at the Red Sea, so more oil moves that way, lessening the ability for the Islamic Regime to interfere with oil shipments.
Here is a AI generated overview of existing terminals in the Red Sea.
The Red Sea features several critical oil terminals, with the primary hub being Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, which plays a major role in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. While there isn't a single definitive count for all minor terminals, key installations include Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Bashayer in Sudan, and Sumed in Egypt, which are crucial for regional and international oil exports.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) +3
Key oil terminals and pipelines in the Red Sea include:
First thing I would do is get UAE/KSA to sit down and stop being stupid in Yemen and build a strategy to start really squeezing the Houthi's. First by making the the other Yemen players work together, taking out ISIS and generally improving life for the average person there. Start to offer large bribes to the various tribes that are part of the current Houthi territory to switch sides. Then start military operations to clear the Red Sea coastline of Houthi Influence.
At the same time, make a deal to ship oil by pipeline for the UAE/other Gulf States to the Red Sea and expand both pipelines and terminals to and at the Red Sea, so more oil moves that way, lessening the ability for the Islamic Regime to interfere with oil shipments.
Here is a AI generated overview of existing terminals in the Red Sea.
The Red Sea features several critical oil terminals, with the primary hub being Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, which plays a major role in bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. While there isn't a single definitive count for all minor terminals, key installations include Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Bashayer in Sudan, and Sumed in Egypt, which are crucial for regional and international oil exports.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) +3
Key oil terminals and pipelines in the Red Sea include:
- Yanbu (Saudi Arabia): A major export point fed by the Petroline (East-West Crude Pipeline), capable of moving several million barrels a day.
- Sumed Pipeline (Egypt): A pipeline system that runs from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, acting as a key route for oil transport.
- Bashayer Terminals (Sudan): Used primarily for exporting Sudanese and South Sudanese crude oil.
- King Fahd Industrial Port (Yanbu): Houses a specific terminal for crude oil.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (.gov) +4
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What are the odds that this costs more than 73b a year, costs probably not being paid by the gulf States directly, but by whoever is running the oil tankers who will pass this cost on to the consumer?
Path of least resistance.
I guess the USA could be the one to try to facilitate this, but I don't think they have the pull in the region anymore. The deal with the devil the gulf states made was "we sign up with you and the Abraham accords and you protect us from Iran." They just saw that Israel and the USA will drag them into the conflict to the point of exhausting their AD stockpiles, wreck their economies, industries, and tourism. Then to boot, the USA will ditch them and leave Iran to apply a surcharge to their trade and leave them to deal with the fallout.
I don't see the gulf States being as willing to go along with the USA anymore.
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We need more mine clearance capability and unmanned versions to operate in this area.
Shipping Avoids Hormuz Lanes as Iran Pushes Vessels Toward Controlled Corridors
Shipping Avoids Hormuz Lanes as Iran Pushes Vessels Toward Controlled Corridors
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Israel was essentially being left by the "international community" to be the shit-magnet for Iran's terror exports. Available information indicates that this is Israel's war (initiator), not the US's or Trump's (joiner), even though the US obviously immediately claims the role of senior partner in any venture it joins. What has happened is that Israel has upset the status quo, no longer content to put up with the shit - possibly a consequence of the Hamas attacks breaching an unspoken threshold and voiding almost all customary restraints, helped along by the immoderate enthusiasm for Hamas expressed by supporters in many of the countries now weeping at the unfairness of their new situations. Paying a relatively infinitesimal share of international tolls as a consequence of significantly crippling if not eliminating some of the terrorism against Israel is probably a really, really good deal for Israel - orders of magnitude cheaper in money, let alone lives.
Frame it as "Israel's war" (really a continuation of Iran's interminable war against Israel). It doesn't matter whether Israel actually intended Iran to attack other Gulf countries and/or hold Strait traffic hostage. I suppose Israel would have guessed this would happen; but, really, why would it matter to Israel? What was everyone else giving to Israel to continue being Iran's target? Answer: nothing much but scorn and disapproval, from the UN and various governments. Israel escalates massively against Iran; Iran is unable to escalate massively against Israel and so tries to draw in everyone else against Israel. Israel is fixing it's problem, and leaving others to fix their (new) problems.
It can be framed as "America's war" and almost all the same reasoning applies, just at lower intensity with respect to Iran's efforts against America.
If the result is that the intensity of Iran's operations against Israel falls off dramatically, the solution is brilliant. That "costs" might be transferred away from Israel to others is something the others collectively invited upon themselves by, in effect, delegating everything to Israel.
Theoretically, the instant Israel and the US cease military operations against Iran, Iran's "excuse" for international crimes against Gulf states and shipping ends. What could be Iran's excuse for continuing? "We have to toll the Strait to get money to rebuild all the war-making capacity we lost when the people we've committed multitudinous international crimes against for decades decided to destroy it"?
I'm confident many of the feckless countries of the world and legions of pajama boys will frame Iran's continuing criminal mischief as Israel's fault for not continuing to play the role of shit-magnet.
HavokFour
Army.ca Veteran
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Ukrainians coming up the middle again, looking to add 3 more Gulf states to the 3 agreements they already have.
www.politico.eu
Ukraine secures oil lifeline from Gulf states in exchange for military support
After reaching pacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, Zelenskyy said similar agreements were in the works with Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain.
www.politico.eu
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Iran attacks on crucial Saudi pipeline and production facilities slash kingdom's oil output
The damage to Saudi infrastructure will only compound the disruption to global oil supplies trigged by Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
www.cnbc.com
I guess if the Persians can't ship oil then the Arabs can't either.
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Is there not another aspect to this?
The Arab states and the West have had a rather ambivalent relationship over the decades, particularly the last couple.
Qatar's financing of the Islamist culture in the West has not improved the West's, or America's opinion of the Arab world generally. And similarly, palace struggles in Saudi, have spilled over into Western culture wars with the Saudi family prioritizing domestic harmony over consistent international policy.
There is an element of a pox on all their houses in the American public.
The Arab states and the West have had a rather ambivalent relationship over the decades, particularly the last couple.
Qatar's financing of the Islamist culture in the West has not improved the West's, or America's opinion of the Arab world generally. And similarly, palace struggles in Saudi, have spilled over into Western culture wars with the Saudi family prioritizing domestic harmony over consistent international policy.
There is an element of a pox on all their houses in the American public.
