Iran Super Thread- Merged

[Brad Sallows]

Assuming you're correct, what can the gulf States do that the might of the US Navy was unable to unwilling to do?

Close the strait to all traffic by doing the same thing Iran does. Invite China to deliver the community's ultimatum to Iran.

 

[Altair]

Stay, take losses, escort ships though...

You can't fight a war with zero losses. This is why the West loses every war it chooses to engage in for sport, or to appeal to some fickle domestic sentiment. We have zero appetite for losses, because it looks bad in the newspapers and upsets civilians at their breakfast.

America hasn't even tried to push a convoy through, because it doesn't care enough to do so, and it has little of urgency on the line. That is not the case for the Gulf States, if the straits don't open, they will wither and die. If Iran/Persia/Shiites are seen as winning, internal politics will see the rulers overthrown.

I get that it's fun to sit in Canada, watch Trump dangling, and have a laugh, but an resurgent theocratic Iran is bad for everyone but Iranian theocratic leaders.

I think I read that for every 5 freighters there would need to be 8 escorts ships.

So for 100 ships a day, 160 escort ships

Saudi Arabia has 16 ships? UAE 11?

Or put another way, given that ratio, if every ship was used, every day, with none down for repairs or maintenance, the gulf States could escort 16-20 ships per day.

Then factor in losses...

Your scenario of them doing "something" is a interesting one. Unfortunately there is really nothing they CAN do.

The USA has screwed them over and is leaving them with the mess.

I guarantee, rather than getting their expensive ships sunk for 10-15 freighters a day, they will just pay the toll.

 

[Cloud Cover]

Would be cool to install this guys page as a widget, and have it display an update every time somebody posts in this thread. That way we can take credit for the market, and web traffic will start to flow to us to obtain our in-house expert analysis on the war.

OilPrice.net - AI-Powered Oil & Energy Market Intelligence

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You know I’m joking right?

 

[Halifax Tar]

Stay, take losses, escort ships though...

You can't fight a war with zero losses. This is why the West loses every war it chooses to engage in for sport, or to appeal to some fickle domestic sentiment. We have zero appetite for losses, because it looks bad in the newspapers and upsets civilians at their breakfast.

America hasn't even tried to push a convoy through, because it doesn't care enough to do so, and it has little of urgency on the line. That is not the case for the Gulf States, if the straits don't open, they will wither and die. If Iran/Persia/Shiites are seen as winning, internal politics will see the rulers overthrown.

I get that it's fun to sit in Canada, watch Trump dangling, and have a laugh, but an resurgent theocratic Iran is bad for everyone but Iranian theocratic leaders.

If we sill did milpoints I would give you a bunch. Great post!

 

[Furniture]

I think I read that for every 5 freighters there would need to be 8 escorts ships.

So for 100 ships a day, 160 escort ships

Saudi Arabia has 16 ships? UAE 11?

Or put another way, given that ratio, if every ship was used, every day, with none down for repairs or maintenance, the gulf States could escort 16-20 ships per day.

Then factor in losses...

Your scenario of them doing "something" is a interesting one. Unfortunately there is really nothing they CAN do.

The USA has screwed them over and is leaving them with the mess.

I guarantee, rather than getting their expensive ships sunk for 10-15 freighters a day, they will just pay the toll.

That assumes that there is no air support involved, and that they won't just close the Straits themselves...

It's economic and political suicide for them to roll over and pay their rival.

 

[Altair]

That assumes that there is no air support involved, and that they won't just close the Straits themselves...

So they close the straits, Iran closes the strait, both are like fighter jets circling each other while losing altitude.

As for air support, in the age of drones, I don't think that changes the calculus very much.

It's economic and political suicide for them to roll over and pay their rival.

It's also suicide for them to try to escort ships through the strait using their entire navies and only getting 10-15 percent of normal traffic through, with ships still likely getting hit and sunk and taking naval losses.

So in terms of which version of suicide they want to engage in, 2 million dollars per ship or 1 dollar per barrel when oil is above 100 dollars per barrel is actually the less costly version of suicide.

Is funding Iran directly absolutely insane? Yes. But it will keep their economies afloat. If they are only getting 10-15 percent through using their naval assets, that's when they will absolutely die.

I feel for them. They didn't ask for this war, they didn't get a say, and now the Americans are leaving them with the mess and the bill. Brutal.

 

[PPCLI Guy]

I feel for them. They didn't ask for this war, they didn't get a say, and now the Americans are leaving them with the mess and the bill. Brutal.

This is the essence of the problem - that and a lack of a workable or achievable theory of victory

 

[Altair]

This is the essence of the problem - that and a lack of a workable or achievable theory of victory

Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory.

Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.

Sun Tzu​

The Americans made a lot of noise.

 

[Brad Sallows]

The Strait was already "tolled".

The "toll" - the price only occasionally overtly demanded by Iran and paid - was for most countries to tolerate Iranian meddling beyond its borders, particularly against Israel, without having to endure much retaliation/punishment within its own borders. The tangible costs were mostly paid by Israel. That "toll" has largely been cancelled; Israel pushed the button to shift the toll onto others. They will have to deal with it, and perhaps with a toll at the entrance to the Red Sea if Iran and Yemen decide to pursue obvious weakness.