Iran Super Thread- Merged

[GR66]

Deals with Trump appear to be worth next to nothing. Why would we compromise our own credibility by putting a Canadian stamp on anything he’ll probably just reneg on and abandon when it’s convenient or he feels like it or someone else involved hurt his feelings?

The difference I think here is that Trump and Iran would both like a way out of this that they can claim as some sort of victory. Both of them lose be this continuing. The difficult part for them is accepting a deal "imposed" by the other. A deal from an outside party would be easier for them to accept.

 

[brihard]

The difference I think here is that Trump and Iran would both like a way out of this that they can claim as some sort of victory. Both of them lose be this continuing. The difficult part for them is accepting a deal "imposed" by the other. A deal from an outside party would be easier for them to accept.

Neither are trustworthy. There’s no benefit to Canada worth the risk of getting dragged into the quagmire.

 

[Altair]

Neither are trustworthy. There’s no benefit to Canada any nation worth the risk of getting dragged into the quagmire.

Fixed your post

 

[Altair]

The difference I think here is that Trump and Iran would both like a way out of this that they can claim as some sort of victory. Both of them lose be this continuing. The difficult part for them is accepting a deal "imposed" by the other. A deal from an outside party would be easier for them to accept.

To make a deal you need to trust that both sides abide by it.

Do you trust Trump or Bibi?

 

[HavokFour]

Oddly, this has gone somewhat under the radar without much fanfare.

Beijing Tells China Firms to Ignore US Sanctions on Refiners​

Archive

What is China’s anti-sanctions law and how does it work?

Beijing's order blocking US sanctions on five oil refineries marks first invocation of 2021 law.

www.aljazeera.com

China orders firms to ignore US Iran sanctions, daring US to enforce crackdown

China orders firms to defy U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil in what analysts call an unprecedented escalation of Beijing's resistance to Washington.

www.foxnews.com

 

[GR66]

Neither are trustworthy. There’s no benefit to Canada worth the risk of getting dragged into the quagmire.

What quagmire would we (or another nation) "get dragged into" by presenting a ceasefire deal that you've already felt them both out on for approval behind the scenes before presenting it publicly? If they don't express interest you don't go public. You're simply giving them domestic political cover by being able to accept a deal presented by someone other than their opponent.

I'm not suggesting in any way that we be responsible for enforcing anything. Is it better to let this drag on indefinitely because neither wants to be seen as blinking first?

 

[Altair]

What quagmire would we (or another nation) "get dragged into" by presenting a ceasefire deal that you've already felt them both out on for approval behind the scenes before presenting it publicly? If they don't express interest you don't go public. You're simply giving them domestic political cover by being able to accept a deal presented by someone other than their opponent.

I'm not suggesting in any way that we be responsible for enforcing anything. Is it better to let this drag on indefinitely because neither wants to be seen as blinking first?

I thought this is what Pakistan has already been doing?

It went sideways off the hop.

The pakistan ceasefire included lebanon in the text, the iranians agreed. Israel wasn't consulted, said Eff that, and continued bombing hezbollah. The ceasefire has been on shaky ground ever since and Iran no longer trusts what is coming out of pakistan because Pakistan makes a deal with the americans and dont communicate with the israelis who do whatever they please and then the americans bavktrack on the deal they agreed with pakistan.

Why bother. Deals with Bibi and Trump aren't worth the paper they are written on.

They will stop fighting when one side has had enough, there is nothing an outside force can do speed this up.

We must simply sit by and endure the fallout.

 

[ytz]

I wouldn't say thrown to the wolves. The Afghans couldn't figure out how to deal with the wolves on their own after 18 - 19 years of continuous training, mentoring, and advising.

I'm of the opinion that Iraq doomed Afghanistan. It sucked away so much resources. Afghanistan went from "must win" to keep the bench warm. Imagine a world where Iraq 2003 didn't happen, and how the Afghanistan war would have run and what resources would have been put in to reform and rebuild Afghanistan. And what would have been done to hold Pakistan to account.

Instead, resources got split and the US presented all kinds of targets of opportunity to Iran on both borders and enabled Pakistani duplicity as we became reliant on them.

 

[ytz]

Trump doesn't listen to his own cabinet. He does what he wants. Ergo there's no point "negotiating with the Americans". That presumes a rational actor. You have a crazy old man on one side. And crazy ideologues on the other. Going to be very hard to get them to actually reach a deal.

And neither is desperate enough if we're being honest. Americans need at least $6 gas before Trump even feels pressured. And Iran really needs to see some actual food shortages driving up desperation before the regime will feel desperate. They aren't there yet.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Trump doesn't listen to his own cabinet. He does what he wants. Ergo there's no point "negotiating with the Americans". That presumes a rational actor. You have a crazy old man on one side. And crazy ideologues on the other. Going to be very hard to get them to actually reach a deal.

And neither is desperate enough if we're being honest. Americans need at least $6 gas before Trump even feels pressured. And Iran really needs to see some actual food shortages driving up desperation before the regime will feel desperate. They aren't there yet.

I’m in PA now packing up my daughter from her first year at Uni here.
I paid 4.59$ USD a gallon on the way down here and I’ve seen regular gas for as high as 4.89$ so far.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Why would anyone want to detract from the bukkake theatre of constant negative critique of all things USA? It's Canada's national sport after all.

Ummm maybe it's my own deviancy but is that the right word ?

 

[PrairieFella]

And Latvia is supposed to be very mild, and yet had the coldest winter in decades this year.

Man was outdoor PT awful this winter.

 

[Oldgateboatdriver]

Oddly, this has gone somewhat under the radar without much fanfare.

Beijing Tells China Firms to Ignore US Sanctions on Refiners​

Archive

What is China’s anti-sanctions law and how does it work?

Beijing's order blocking US sanctions on five oil refineries marks first invocation of 2021 law.

www.aljazeera.com

China orders firms to ignore US Iran sanctions, daring US to enforce crackdown

China orders firms to defy U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil in what analysts call an unprecedented escalation of Beijing's resistance to Washington.

www.foxnews.com

Yet another wonderful miscalculation by our friendly amateurs next door. He failed to realize that he would be pushing China, Iran, Russia, etc. yet further from the US dollar as the international currency of choice - thus reducing the US's economic capacity to influence international event that much more.

Moreover, this is mild from China. At some point in this mess, when Trump decided to blockade Iran, I was half expecting the Chinese to make sure all the tankers going their way were re-flaged to China and sending a few Type 055 destroyers (cruisers?) to the Gulf/Strait to escort them and telling the US "you touch any ship flagged to China and you will start a war with us". That, BTW, would have been a legitimate use of naval power: protection of commerce.