Iran Super Thread- Merged

[FormerEnlisted]

The less-than-exquisite arsenal still counts. There's no rule or provision for confining the US to exquisite-systems-only in a confrontation.

And there is no reason to believe that our understanding of depletion is the same as the Pentagon's. They have always stockpiled enough material for a 2 front war. When people leak that inventories are down XX%, that doesn't refer to the entire arsenal, just the surplus inventory which has been allocated for immediate refurbishment and deployment since its reaching the end of its life cycle anyway.

There is a world of difference between 80% of total munitions, and 80% of munitions which were going to be written off in training exercises because they could no longer be warranted to mission specification.

The very reason that some devices malfunction and are captured intact is because they represent end of life models which were considered obsolete surplus anyway.

Anyone watching the current headless chicken dance in the middle east would be well advised to reflect on how high replenishment rates must have been for decades to sustain a major war in Ukraine and a new front in the levant, only using natural atrophy of current stockpiles.

 

[armrdsoul77]

You can pre-order your POTUS 'Exquisite Class' weaponry on the Home Shopping Channel website.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

And there is no reason to believe that our understanding of depletion is the same as the Pentagon's. They have always stockpiled enough material for a 2 front war. When people leak that inventories are down XX%, that doesn't refer to the entire arsenal, just the surplus inventory which has been allocated for immediate refurbishment and deployment since its reaching the end of its life cycle anyway.

There is a world of difference between 80% of total munitions, and 80% of munitions which were going to be written off in training exercises because they could no longer be warranted to mission specification.

The very reason that some devices malfunction and are captured intact is because they represent end of life models which were considered obsolete surplus anyway.

Anyone watching the current headless chicken dance in the middle east would be well advised to reflect on how high replenishment rates must have been for decades to sustain a major war in Ukraine and a new front in the levant, only using natural atrophy of current stockpiles.

Not to mention the west is getting a wakeup call on drone warfare and the need for a robust production chain. China is grappling with the reality that they have far fewer citizens than they thought they did, they see the human cost that is inflicted on Russia and worry they might not be able to afford to lose similar numbers of young males.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I am going to argue that the civilian government has always been a facade, allowed only to exercise that which the IRGC and Clerics felt was to mundane for them. Now they are limiting even that, while they panic at what they have sowed. I have argued that Iran cannot sustain it's current aggression for long and the economy is wrecked for a very long time.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Not to mention the west is getting a wakeup call on drone warfare and the need for a robust production chain. China is grappling with the reality that they have far fewer citizens than they thought they did, they see the human cost that is inflicted on Russia and worry they might not be able to afford to lose similar numbers of young males.

Where did you read information about this? I'd be interested in reading/learning more about this.

 

[dapaterson]

An excellent article about China's demographics includes the note that despite official claims to the contrary, China's population may have peaked at 1.3B and been in decline since 2018.

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The demographic situation in China is likely even more challenging than suggested by official NBS data. Some demographers, such as Yi Fuxian, Huang Wenzheng and Wang Feng, estimate that China’s population began to decrease as early as 2018 and never exceeded 1.3 billion. A data leak from the population registry in July 2022 revealed a registered population of 1.28 billion.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Where did you read information about this? I'd be interested in reading/learning more about this.

There is a lot of stuff on the web from various sources, some researchers and studies put the population around 800 million and others as low as 400 million. Official Chinese stats are not to be trusted, so people have been using other methods to infer actual populations , including death notices, crematorium reports, sales figures of some goods, etc, etc. No one really seems to know for sure, including the CCP, but the problem is now come to the attention of the senior leadership.

 

[HavokFour]

There is a lot of stuff on the web from various sources, some researchers and studies put the population around 800 million and others as low as 400 million. Official Chinese stats are not to be trusted, so people have been using other methods to infer actual populations , including death notices, crematorium reports, sales figures of some goods, etc, etc. No one really seems to know for sure, including the CCP, but the problem is now come to the attention of the senior leadership.

Only thing anyone knows for sure is their significant gender imbalance caused by their 1979-2015 one-child policy and the cultural preference to have sons. There's about a Canada sized amount of more men than women there.