Iran Super Thread- Merged

[FormerEnlisted]

The less-than-exquisite arsenal still counts. There's no rule or provision for confining the US to exquisite-systems-only in a confrontation.

And there is no reason to believe that our understanding of depletion is the same as the Pentagon's. They have always stockpiled enough material for a 2 front war. When people leak that inventories are down XX%, that doesn't refer to the entire arsenal, just the surplus inventory which has been allocated for immediate refurbishment and deployment since its reaching the end of its life cycle anyway.

There is a world of difference between 80% of total munitions, and 80% of munitions which were going to be written off in training exercises because they could no longer be warranted to mission specification.

The very reason that some devices malfunction and are captured intact is because they represent end of life models which were considered obsolete surplus anyway.

Anyone watching the current headless chicken dance in the middle east would be well advised to reflect on how high replenishment rates must have been for decades to sustain a major war in Ukraine and a new front in the levant, only using natural atrophy of current stockpiles.

 

[armrdsoul77]

You can pre-order your POTUS 'Exquisite Class' weaponry on the Home Shopping Channel website.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

And there is no reason to believe that our understanding of depletion is the same as the Pentagon's. They have always stockpiled enough material for a 2 front war. When people leak that inventories are down XX%, that doesn't refer to the entire arsenal, just the surplus inventory which has been allocated for immediate refurbishment and deployment since its reaching the end of its life cycle anyway.

There is a world of difference between 80% of total munitions, and 80% of munitions which were going to be written off in training exercises because they could no longer be warranted to mission specification.

The very reason that some devices malfunction and are captured intact is because they represent end of life models which were considered obsolete surplus anyway.

Anyone watching the current headless chicken dance in the middle east would be well advised to reflect on how high replenishment rates must have been for decades to sustain a major war in Ukraine and a new front in the levant, only using natural atrophy of current stockpiles.

Not to mention the west is getting a wakeup call on drone warfare and the need for a robust production chain. China is grappling with the reality that they have far fewer citizens than they thought they did, they see the human cost that is inflicted on Russia and worry they might not be able to afford to lose similar numbers of young males.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I am going to argue that the civilian government has always been a facade, allowed only to exercise that which the IRGC and Clerics felt was to mundane for them. Now they are limiting even that, while they panic at what they have sowed. I have argued that Iran cannot sustain it's current aggression for long and the economy is wrecked for a very long time.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Not to mention the west is getting a wakeup call on drone warfare and the need for a robust production chain. China is grappling with the reality that they have far fewer citizens than they thought they did, they see the human cost that is inflicted on Russia and worry they might not be able to afford to lose similar numbers of young males.

Where did you read information about this? I'd be interested in reading/learning more about this.

 

[dapaterson]

An excellent article about China's demographics includes the note that despite official claims to the contrary, China's population may have peaked at 1.3B and been in decline since 2018.

Checking your browser – reCAPTCHA

The demographic situation in China is likely even more challenging than suggested by official NBS data. Some demographers, such as Yi Fuxian, Huang Wenzheng and Wang Feng, estimate that China’s population began to decrease as early as 2018 and never exceeded 1.3 billion. A data leak from the population registry in July 2022 revealed a registered population of 1.28 billion.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Where did you read information about this? I'd be interested in reading/learning more about this.

There is a lot of stuff on the web from various sources, some researchers and studies put the population around 800 million and others as low as 400 million. Official Chinese stats are not to be trusted, so people have been using other methods to infer actual populations , including death notices, crematorium reports, sales figures of some goods, etc, etc. No one really seems to know for sure, including the CCP, but the problem is now come to the attention of the senior leadership.

 

[HavokFour]

There is a lot of stuff on the web from various sources, some researchers and studies put the population around 800 million and others as low as 400 million. Official Chinese stats are not to be trusted, so people have been using other methods to infer actual populations , including death notices, crematorium reports, sales figures of some goods, etc, etc. No one really seems to know for sure, including the CCP, but the problem is now come to the attention of the senior leadership.

Only thing anyone knows for sure is their significant gender imbalance caused by their 1979-2015 one-child policy and the cultural preference to have sons. There's about a Canada sized (35-40 million) number of more men than women over there.

 

[Czech_pivo]

Only thing anyone knows for sure is their significant gender imbalance caused by their 1979-2015 one-child policy and the cultural preference to have sons. There's about a Canada sized (35-40 million) number of more men than women over there.

Well there’s going to be about 1+ million extra Russian women available…..just saying.

 

[Altair]

I am going to argue that the civilian government has always been a facade, allowed only to exercise that which the IRGC and Clerics felt was to mundane for them. Now they are limiting even that, while they panic at what they have sowed. I have argued that Iran cannot sustain it's current aggression for long and the economy is wrecked for a very long time.

Posting the AI slop channel again?

 

[OldSolduer]

Well there’s going to be about 1+ million extra Russian women available…..just saying.

Like this onev

 

[daftandbarmy]

Sigh...

Trump says Iran should pay compensation, including for past actions​

Iran demanding compensation of its own, relating to current conflict​

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday responded to Iran's conditions for a peace deal with his own demands that Iran pay compensation for people killed in wars, attacks and protests, in a rhetorical escalation likely ‌to complicate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's proposal, which has not been raised before, was a response to Tehran's demands for compensation and an end to sanctions. This are largely in line with the terms of a preliminary peace deal signed in June, which has since broken down.

Since the war began in February, Trump has repeatedly oscillated between threats of escalation and claims that a peace deal is imminent.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-demands-compensation-iran-9.7302186

 

[KevinB]

And there is no reason to believe that our understanding of depletion is the same as the Pentagon's.

It is a little worse than that. As Congress had given approval to dip into stockpiles during Red Sea 1.0 and in ‘23 for Ukraine.

However generally as you point out the we have Congressional mandated stockpiles that are not counted as OpStock / as well as OpStock specifically dedicated to one theatre is not considered part of other stocks etc.

That said, the numbers of interceptors for certain threats is low.

They have always stockpiled enough material for a 2 front war. When people leak that inventories are down XX%, that doesn't refer to the entire arsenal, just the surplus inventory which has been allocated for immediate refurbishment and deployment since its reaching the end of its life cycle anyway.

Generally a lot of the expensive stuff is rebuilt — remember the ATACM’s, had new rocket propellant.

There is a world of difference between 80% of total munitions, and 80% of munitions which were going to be written off in training exercises because they could no longer be warranted to mission specification.

For some small stuff absolutely. But expensive things get rebuilt - long range rocket/missiles and interceptors being some of those things that have a very small non operational usage allocation.

The very reason that some devices malfunction and are captured intact is because they represent end of life models which were considered obsolete surplus anyway.

Again true on lower cost items.

Anyone watching the current headless chicken dance in the middle east would be well advised to reflect on how high replenishment rates must have been for decades to sustain a major war in Ukraine and a new front in the levant, only using natural atrophy of current stockpiles.

It is worse than that.

Yes some items aren’t touched at all by these events — but the fact remains the long standing ability to conduct 2 major conflicts has been shown to be a fallacy with the current rate of expenditure of both LRPF systems and various Interceptors.