High Speed Train Coming?-split from boosting Canada’s military spending"

[ytz]

except you need to do a Pickering and buy all the land now and that will cost.

Okay? Building anything involves some cost.

But they've explained in their open houses and other discussions that construction is phased and so are pre-construction activities. Toronto-Ottawa starts few years after Ottawa-Montreal. And Montreal-Quebec city a few years after that. Land assembly is similarly phased. Not in the least because they also want to use what they learn from Ottawa-Montreal to minimize expropriation as much as possible.

 

[YZT580]

Okay? Building anything involves some cost.

But they've explained in their open houses and other discussions that construction is phased and so are pre-construction activities. Toronto-Ottawa starts few years after Ottawa-Montreal. And Montreal-Quebec city a few years after that. Land assembly is similarly phased. Not in the least because they also want to use what they learn from Ottawa-Montreal to minimize expropriation as much as possible.

Wouldn't you be financially better off buying now. If that first leg goes in and is successful and the succeeding government still wishes to go ahead with it (not guaranteed) the land will cost more than waterfront in Muskoka.

 

[ytz]

Wouldn't you be financially better off buying now. If that first leg goes in and is successful and the succeeding government still wishes to go ahead with it (not guaranteed) the land will cost more than waterfront in Muskoka.

You're assuming cost is the sole consideration. It isn't. Minimal impact on those communities is the consideration. As such, everything they do is geared towards that goal.

I wouldn't be worried about property prices. To my understanding the expropriation processes pay far market value. And Alto has repeatedly said they will compensate business and community impacts over and above land value. People can try and ask exorbitant prices, but I am fairly sure any judge will dismiss that.

For now though, it's why Alto has been somewhat secretive on the exact routing. They don't want a speculation frenzy. But once the first phase starts, there's less risk of that. And really, the largest speculation risk is on areas around or near stations. Not so much random field that would have track running through it.

 

[MacNav63]

HFR got canned because it failed. When VIA's previous CEO proposed it, there was almost no analysis behind it. It was originally supposed to be a $5B project that was supposed to be faster than anything today. They even said Toronto to Montreal via Ottawa in 4 hrs. Then they got engineers in to do preliminary design work and take soil samples, etc. Eventually, they figured out the cost was going to be $20B and it would still take 5 hrs from Toronto to Montreal (vs 5.5 hrs today). Physics is a bitch like that.

When Alto was bid out, the government even left the exact routing and station locations open. Any company could bid any route as long as they hit the cities on the list. There was a hope that maybe one of the freight cos might see value in moving freight to another corridor and selling their Lakeshore Corridor for passenger service. That didn't happen. And the winning bidder (Cadence consortium) basically turned the old HFR route into one of two options (it's the Northern route). A good chunk of the cost increase of Alto comes from added scope. Notably the several hundred kilometers between Montreal and Quebec City.

Good context thanks. That being said, I'm still sceptical about making the leap from the limited inter-city rail culture that we have all the way to HSR. I like rail and I like the idea of HSR and certainly have enjoyed being able to travel around France on their network. But even though the Windsor-Quebec corridor is the most densely populated area in Canada it's still a far cry from the population density of central Europe or Japan. And we have been so committed to road and air travel for so long now that getting people to switch is going to be tough. From where I sit in the east end of Ottawa I'm on the island in less than two hours. Taking the train, which I used to do for business all the time, involves driving or being driven into town to the station and then back again when I return, plus the two hour train trip. I just don't know that the increase in speed over what ever portion of the route between Ottawa and Montreal the train can actually travel at high speed is going to make it more convenient for me. But that's me.

 

[Jarnhamar]

There was a recent story about the Ontario Line in 2019 being quoted at
$10.9b and current projected cost $34 b.

Alto is quoted at $60b. A safe estimate is it ballooning to $180b - $240b.

(Or $44.6trillion using Liberal ArriveCan math)

 

[MacNav63]

You're assuming cost is the sole consideration. It isn't. Minimal impact on those communities is the consideration. As such, everything they do is geared towards that goal.

I wouldn't be worried about property prices. To my understanding the expropriation processes pay far market value. And Alto has repeatedly said they will compensate business and community impacts over and above land value. People can try and ask exorbitant prices, but I am fairly sure any judge will dismiss that.

For now though, it's why Alto has been somewhat secretive on the exact routing. They don't want a speculation frenzy. But once the first phase starts, there's less risk of that. And really, the largest speculation risk is on areas around or near stations. Not so much random field that would have track running through it.

In my rural village in the east end of Ottawa there are a lot of "no Alto" signs and the farmers around here are pretty staunchly against it. The CN right of way runs between us and the 417 and right along the southern edge of the village is the Prescott-Russell rail trail extension, which runs on what is still a right of way owned by VIA. So a lot of folks are worried about the potential for Alto see that as a viable option. Frankly I think that's doubtful. It was a single line and it is now so close to built up areas that I would imagine the environmental assessments would rule it out running so close to the community. I emphasize with the farmers but I think we're a long way from knowing just how Alto would work to mitigate and compensate for impacts on their land. Personally, I'm not worried about my property value.

That being said, I do think Alto and the government haven't done a very good job of controlling the narrative. Nor have they helped themselves by denying to our Councillor that they were responsible for marking showing up on the roads around us and then fessing up that while it wasn't them it was a subcontractor doing survey work. That just feeds into trust issues.

There is a political calculus as well that the Feds will have to account for. All lot of the stop Alto signs that are popping up on people's front lawns are from the Ontario Landowners Association, a group not know for it's love of Liberals. Last year, with provincial and federal elections just a month or so apart this riding went Tory provincially and Liberal federally. It wouldn't take much to have it go completely blue.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

There is a political calculus as well that the Feds will have to account for. All lot of the stop Alto signs that are popping up on people's front lawns are from the Ontario Landowners Association, a group not know for it's love of Liberals. Last year, with provincial and federal elections just a month or so apart this riding went Tory provincially and Liberal federally. It wouldn't take much to have it go completely blue.

Much as I think this train is a huge boondoggle that will saddle our kids with even more outrageous debt, I DO NOT want any Govt making decisions on infrastructure based on how the next election might go. Do what's good for Canada, not any political party future.....

 

[dapaterson]

There's a crass political calculus on top of everything - are there more votes from "Canadian workers. Canadian steel. Canadian rail." than from the Ontario Landowners Association, and where are those votes located (Hamilton and the Soo).

 

[YZT580]

There's a crass political calculus on top of everything - are there more votes from "Canadian workers. Canadian steel. Canadian rail." than from the Ontario Landowners Association, and where are those votes located (Hamilton and the Soo).

true however building a separated VIA would use the same steel. I too enjoy the train, its comforts and being able to watch the country go by at my leisure. When I travelled to Ottawa from Toronto having the time to unwind and prepare for the meetings ahead was priceless. I know from experience that there is very little sight seeing from HSR: damn thing moves to fast. My preference and for less money would be a properly built and segregated rail system. With that notion probably out the window I just hope that they do it right and can attract enough riders to justify its construction.

 

[Altair]

true however building a separated VIA would use the same steel. I too enjoy the train, its comforts and being able to watch the country go by at my leisure. When I travelled to Ottawa from Toronto having the time to unwind and prepare for the meetings ahead was priceless. I know from experience that there is very little sight seeing from HSR: damn thing moves to fast. My preference and for less money would be a properly built and segregated rail system. With that notion probably out the window I just hope that they do it right and can attract enough riders to justify its construction.

If they get more cars off the 401 and cut the flights between montreal toronto and ottawa by half it will be well worth it.

 

[MacNav63]

Much as I think this train is a huge boondoggle that will saddle our kids with even more outrageous debt, I DO NOT want any Govt making decisions on infrastructure based on how the next election might go. Do what's good for Canada, not any political party future.....

I don’t disagree at all. But we all know those calculations are made all the time. Was it a coincidence the Feds said no to expanding the island airport at the same time they have a by-election in Toronto?

 

[ytz]

I'm still sceptical about making the leap from the limited inter-city rail culture that we have all the way to HSR. I like rail and I like the idea of HSR and certainly have enjoyed being able to travel around France on their network. But even though the Windsor-Quebec corridor is the most densely populated area in Canada it's still a far cry from the population density of central Europe or Japan.

People say this. But it's not true.

The Quebec-Windsor Corridor has population density on par with Southern France or Spain. And Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal is very similar in both population and distances to one of the most successful HSR lines around: Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona. And Spain doesn't have our winters or our air fares.

The start of this video should help with the comparison:

It's unfortunate how prevalent Small Canada syndrome is these days. People can't even imagine that a country of 40M (similar to Poland) might have a corridor that needs HSR.

 

[ytz]

Much as I think this train is a huge boondoggle that will saddle our kids with even more outrageous debt,

This train does a whole lot more for my generation, and every one that follows than the $80B per year and rising in OAS that is paid out and majority deficit financed.

 

[Bruce Monkhouse]

You mean "my generation" whom live in the corridor..........and the very small percentage of those who would take it.