High Speed Train Coming?-split from boosting Canada’s military spending"

[ytz]

I don’t disagree at all. But we all know those calculations are made all the time. Was it a coincidence the Feds said no to expanding the island airport at the same time they have a by-election in Toronto?

The Feds have said no to Island Airport Expansion from the very beginning. They only said yes to a runway extension for the purpose of making the RESA compliant with current standards. The provincial government then demanded a 50% increase in runway length that stretches it to half the length of the downtown Toronto waterfront. It substantially impacts channel access for boaters. I think this would be a hard sell even outside an election.

But even beyond that. The feds are looking a rail line that would take more than half of Porter's current passengers. So what exactly is the extra runway capacity for? How many flights from downtown Toronto to Sudbury and Chicago are needed, over and above the current capacity that would be re-allocated post-Alto? I think a smaller runway extension that fell between the RESA and the 6000+ ft the province wants would be workable. But as it stands, when you look at what the provincial proposal looks like on an actual map, it genuinely looks comical.

 

[ytz]

One argument being made in favour of HSR over HFR was the need to be competitive with flying. High frequency service, while better than current VIA in terms of on-time performance, was never going to be able to compete with flying; HSR can. I understand France has recently mandated the cancellation of a number of flights between cities that are now served by HSR.

Don't even really need mandates. Every place with HSR has seen substantial migration of passengers over from air to HSR. It Italy, HSR famously bankrupted Alitalia. Even in the US where Acela isn't competitive with air travel, it takes more pax than air for the last two decades. The French mandate was basically symbolic. It forced the airlines and their rail company to focus on air-rail integration at CDG airport so that a handful of flights could finally be eliminated. In our case, given how expensive intercity air travel is, Alto will take a huge chunk. Air Canada and Westjet are fine with this, they want the slots at Pearson and Trudeau airports to go to more profitable routes. It's really Porter at YTZ that is worried. They'll have to build up new markets to make up for the loss of Corridor business.

 

[ytz]

Makes sense, since I do only go to Ottawa and Montreal when I jump in my car.....[insert sarcasm emoji]

Let's be honest. Do you even leave your town much?

 

[YZT580]

People say this. But it's not true.

The Quebec-Windsor Corridor has population density on par with Southern France or Spain. And Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal is very similar in both population and distances to one of the most successful HSR lines around: Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona. And Spain doesn't have our winters or our air fares.

The start of this video should help with the comparison:

It's unfortunate how prevalent Small Canada syndrome is these days. People can't even imagine that a country of 40M (similar to Poland) might have a corridor that needs HSR.

but, and I have said it before, all of those successful routes are networked with short line commuters: at least all that I have seen. There is no feeding system to Peterborough, none to Kingston as you can't count VIA it doesn't have the frequency. There is non to Quebec and probably none to Trois Riviere. OC Transpo can't be relied on so where are the passengers coming from. I wish I shared your optimism.

 

[lenaitch]

The Feds have said no to Island Airport Expansion from the very beginning. They only said yes to a runway extension for the purpose of making the RESA compliant with current standards. The provincial government then demanded a 50% increase in runway length that stretches it to half the length of the downtown Toronto waterfront. It substantially impacts channel access for boaters. I think this would be a hard sell even outside an election.

But even beyond that. The feds are looking a rail line that would take more than half of Porter's current passengers. So what exactly is the extra runway capacity for? How many flights from downtown Toronto to Sudbury and Chicago are needed, over and above the current capacity that would be re-allocated post-Alto? I think a smaller runway extension that fell between the RESA and the 6000+ ft the province wants would be workable. But as it stands, when you look at what the provincial proposal looks like on an actual map, it genuinely looks comical.

The whole 'Island Airport Thing' strikes me as Bob Deluce et famille, founder and controller of Porter, having the ear of Doug Ford. All municipalities are 'children of the province', but Ford treats them like step-children.

In an industry of rising costs and tight margins, Porter needs to wring everything out of its operations. It now pays to fly out of two Toronto airports and Billy Bishop is currently limited to propeller aircraft He would dearly love to get jets in there to broaden destinations and increase capacity in a place with cheaper fees.

In spite of Toronto thinking it is the centre of the universe, a lot of people travel to Toronto to go to someplace else. Here in North Bay, Air Canada pulled out (after getting a bunch of post-Covid federal dough to re-instate regional routes). Porter tried, along with a regional carrier Propair because the majority of people flying out of here were going someplace else and need the connections offered by Pearson. Flying out of Billy Bishop is great for business travel and downtown dwellers, especially those whose idea of a vacation is to visit another city.

If/when ALTO reaches Toronto, unless Porter can fly to further destinations, it is likely doomed, and the airport will probably go with it. If it closes, urban dreamers think it will become a park. I think it will become condos. One knock-on effect will be to general aviation in the GTA, along with an air ambulance base. They are pretty much limited to Caledon-Brampton or Whitby unless they move further out to Waterloo or Hamilton.

 

[dapaterson]

Porter sold their YTZ terminal years ago. I suspect they're less concerned about being g jets to the waterfront than certain corporate jets are.