High Speed Train Coming?-split from boosting Canada’s military spending"

[ytz]

I don’t disagree at all. But we all know those calculations are made all the time. Was it a coincidence the Feds said no to expanding the island airport at the same time they have a by-election in Toronto?

The Feds have said no to Island Airport Expansion from the very beginning. They only said yes to a runway extension for the purpose of making the RESA compliant with current standards. The provincial government then demanded a 50% increase in runway length that stretches it to half the length of the downtown Toronto waterfront. It substantially impacts channel access for boaters. I think this would be a hard sell even outside an election.

But even beyond that. The feds are looking a rail line that would take more than half of Porter's current passengers. So what exactly is the extra runway capacity for? How many flights from downtown Toronto to Sudbury and Chicago are needed, over and above the current capacity that would be re-allocated post-Alto? I think a smaller runway extension that fell between the RESA and the 6000+ ft the province wants would be workable. But as it stands, when you look at what the provincial proposal looks like on an actual map, it genuinely looks comical.

 

[ytz]

One argument being made in favour of HSR over HFR was the need to be competitive with flying. High frequency service, while better than current VIA in terms of on-time performance, was never going to be able to compete with flying; HSR can. I understand France has recently mandated the cancellation of a number of flights between cities that are now served by HSR.

Don't even really need mandates. Every place with HSR has seen substantial migration of passengers over from air to HSR. It Italy, HSR famously bankrupted Alitalia. Even in the US where Acela isn't competitive with air travel, it takes more pax than air for the last two decades. The French mandate was basically symbolic. It forced the airlines and their rail company to focus on air-rail integration at CDG airport so that a handful of flights could finally be eliminated. In our case, given how expensive intercity air travel is, Alto will take a huge chunk. Air Canada and Westjet are fine with this, they want the slots at Pearson and Trudeau airports to go to more profitable routes. It's really Porter at YTZ that is worried. They'll have to build up new markets to make up for the loss of Corridor business.

 

[ytz]

Makes sense, since I do only go to Ottawa and Montreal when I jump in my car.....[insert sarcasm emoji]

Let's be honest. Do you even leave your town much?

 

[YZT580]

People say this. But it's not true.

The Quebec-Windsor Corridor has population density on par with Southern France or Spain. And Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal is very similar in both population and distances to one of the most successful HSR lines around: Madrid-Zaragoza-Barcelona. And Spain doesn't have our winters or our air fares.

The start of this video should help with the comparison:

It's unfortunate how prevalent Small Canada syndrome is these days. People can't even imagine that a country of 40M (similar to Poland) might have a corridor that needs HSR.

but, and I have said it before, all of those successful routes are networked with short line commuters: at least all that I have seen. There is no feeding system to Peterborough, none to Kingston as you can't count VIA it doesn't have the frequency. There is non to Quebec and probably none to Trois Riviere. OC Transpo can't be relied on so where are the passengers coming from. I wish I shared your optimism.

 

[lenaitch]

The Feds have said no to Island Airport Expansion from the very beginning. They only said yes to a runway extension for the purpose of making the RESA compliant with current standards. The provincial government then demanded a 50% increase in runway length that stretches it to half the length of the downtown Toronto waterfront. It substantially impacts channel access for boaters. I think this would be a hard sell even outside an election.

But even beyond that. The feds are looking a rail line that would take more than half of Porter's current passengers. So what exactly is the extra runway capacity for? How many flights from downtown Toronto to Sudbury and Chicago are needed, over and above the current capacity that would be re-allocated post-Alto? I think a smaller runway extension that fell between the RESA and the 6000+ ft the province wants would be workable. But as it stands, when you look at what the provincial proposal looks like on an actual map, it genuinely looks comical.

The whole 'Island Airport Thing' strikes me as Bob Deluce et famille, founder and controller of Porter, having the ear of Doug Ford. All municipalities are 'children of the province', but Ford treats them like step-children.

In an industry of rising costs and tight margins, Porter needs to wring everything out of its operations. It now pays to fly out of two Toronto airports and Billy Bishop is currently limited to propeller aircraft He would dearly love to get jets in there to broaden destinations and increase capacity in a place with cheaper fees.

In spite of Toronto thinking it is the centre of the universe, a lot of people travel to Toronto to go to someplace else. Here in North Bay, Air Canada pulled out (after getting a bunch of post-Covid federal dough to re-instate regional routes). Porter tried, along with a regional carrier Propair because the majority of people flying out of here were going someplace else and need the connections offered by Pearson. Flying out of Billy Bishop is great for business travel and downtown dwellers, especially those whose idea of a vacation is to visit another city.

If/when ALTO reaches Toronto, unless Porter can fly to further destinations, it is likely doomed, and the airport will probably go with it. If it closes, urban dreamers think it will become a park. I think it will become condos. One knock-on effect will be to general aviation in the GTA, along with an air ambulance base. They are pretty much limited to Caledon-Brampton or Whitby unless they move further out to Waterloo or Hamilton.

 

[dapaterson]

Porter sold their YTZ terminal years ago. I suspect they're less concerned about being g jets to the waterfront than certain corporate jets are.

 

[YZT580]

Porter sold their YTZ terminal years ago. I suspect they're less concerned about being g jets to the waterfront than certain corporate jets are.

Porter was going to purchase A220 a/c back before Airbus bought it out with the proviso that they could land at the island. London City airport has a 1600 meter runway and is running A220 internationally from there so I think your corporate notion may have a lot of validity.

The prime users of Porter from the Island to Ottawa are business people. These are the people that Alto hopes to grab onto but they don't care about the ticket price. They want to save the hour between Porter's time and Alto's time: the same reason used to justify spending the 90 billion, saving an hour except for Porter and Alto the shoe is on the other foot.

 

[ytz]

The prime users of Porter from the Island to Ottawa are business people. These are the people that Alto hopes to grab onto but they don't care about the ticket price. They want to save the hour between Porter's time and Alto's time:

Actual frequent travelers know more than to look at just the flight time. What matters is door to door travel time.

Do the math for what it would take to go from the Financial District in Toronto to a meeting in Ottawa with taxis on both ends, pre-boarding, etc. You'll quickly see that Porter doesn't even come close to competing on Toronto-Ottawa. And is basically par for Toronto-Montreal. But that's before considering suburban stations (that would cut travel time) or productive time on the train. This is exactly why business people flock to HSR wherever it's built and why airlines usually take huge hits on any corridor they compete with HSR.

 

[YZT580]

Actual frequent travelers know more than to look at just the flight time. What matters is door to door travel time.

Do the math for what it would take to go from the Financial District in Toronto to a meeting in Ottawa with taxis on both ends, pre-boarding, etc. You'll quickly see that Porter doesn't even come close to competing on Toronto-Ottawa. And is basically par for Toronto-Montreal. But that's before considering suburban stations (that would cut travel time) or productive time on the train. This is exactly why business people flock to HSR wherever it's built and why airlines usually take huge hits on any corridor they compete with HSR.

At least for Toronto/Ottawa your argument doesn't hold water. The Island is the ideal departure point: getting to the Island or Union Station are comparable and Uplands is connected to downtown Ottawa. People don't dash for the train anymore; they arrive at least 30 minutes or more in advance which gives HSR about 30 minutes less than the wait time for Porter. They are targeting a TOR of just over 3 hours. Since both airport and the train station will be on the O lines your time to destination in Ottawa will simply depend upon where on the line you want to get off so advantage is variable. So your door to door time will still favour Porter by almost 2 hours. Have you ever tried to take a taxi through downtown Toronto by the way? It may work in OW but it is not reliable in TO. That is just an aside since it applies to both. Plus the train won't even be operating until 2040 or so and that's only if there are no delays. Porter has plenty of time to develop other plans, I don't think they are worried too much

 

[FSTO]

Unless you have a corporate jet, flying is the worst fucking thing on earth. I hate it all, the two hours prior to boarding, the security checks, the luggage checks, the embarkation, the cramped seats, the disembarkation, the waiting for luggage and the drive to destination. It all sucks!!!!!

 

[lenaitch]

Porter sold their YTZ terminal years ago. I suspect they're less concerned about being g jets to the waterfront than certain corporate jets are.

Porter welcomes plan for jet service at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport - Skies Mag

The airline has long been an advocate for jet traffic downtown, enabling use of its Embraer 190-E2 narrowbody airliners.

skiesmag.com

Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport Review Document Archive

On May 7, 8, 9 and 10, 2013, Toronto City Council requested City staff to undertake a review of a request from Porter Airlines to permit jet-powered aircraft operations at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport (BBTCA). Following the Federal Government’s November 2015 announcement that it would not...

www.toronto.ca

'Time to spread our wings': Porter Airlines unveils ambitious plan to buy CSeries jets, fly farther

Porter Airlines said Wednesday it plans to purchase 12 CSeries aircraft and to push to for the new jets to take off and land at Toronto's Billy Bishop airport

financialpost.com

*****

Getting HSR into downtown Toronto (Union) is going to be a big, expensive problem. Not as big and expensive as getting into downtown Montreal, but still a problem. Union station and its rail approach corridors, particularly to the east, are very constrained. There is talk about tunnelling an approach and concourse, but, ca-ching.

People have been arguing about downtown-to-downtown, HSR vs flying since the proposal was first announced. I'll leave that to others. I will never use it or probably even see it.

 

[ytz]

At least for Toronto/Ottawa your argument doesn't hold water. The Island is the ideal departure point: getting to the Island or Union Station are comparable and Uplands is connected to downtown Ottawa. People don't dash for the train anymore; they arrive at least 30 minutes or more in advance which gives HSR about 30 minutes less than the wait time for Porter. They are targeting a TOR of just over 3 hours. Since both airport and the train station will be on the O lines your time to destination in Ottawa will simply depend upon where on the line you want to get off so advantage is variable. So your door to door time will still favour Porter by almost 2 hours. Have you ever tried to take a taxi through downtown Toronto by the way? It may work in OW but it is not reliable in TO. That is just an aside since it applies to both. Plus the train won't even be operating until 2040 or so and that's only if there are no delays. Porter has plenty of time to develop other plans, I don't think they are worried too much

Millions of business travelers must be wrong elsehwhere in the world?

Let's do the math from the centre of the Financial District to Parliament Hill

Porter:
12 min cab/Uber ride to Eireann Quay.
8 mins to get out of the cab and walk into the terminal via the tunnel.
Pre-board: 30 mins
Flight: 1 hr
De-board: 10 mins
Taxi to the Hill: 20 mins

Total: 2 hr 20 mins


Alto:
5 min cab or 9 min walk
Pre-board: 15 mins (In France, recommended pre-boarding is 20 mins, and you can board up to 2 mins prior to departure as an example.)
Train: 2 hrs
De-board: 5 mins
Taxi to the Hill: 15 min or LRT 20 mins

Total: 2 hrs 40 mins

And, I am being generous with Porter here. Pre-board requirements outside YTZ (say on the return are higher). There's a lot more variability on traffic getting to YTZ in Toronto and from YOW in Ottawa with fewer options vs Alto where you can literally walk to Union and LRT from Tremblay. Not too many business people are going to pay the premium for air to save 20 mins in the absolute best case scenario that assumes perfect traffic and zero connection (Uber instantanously arriving). All for a ride where they can't actually comfortably work en route. And we know this from experience elsewhere too.

But it get worse for YTZ. Move out of the Financial District as your start/origin and travel to Union Station is faster for most of the city. And if they add a suburban stop in Eastern GTA, you have a million people who will now save 30-45 mins vs YTZ. Think of a person who is starting in Pickering or Oakville. The easiest ride in for them? GO Train into Union. Why from there would they schlep to YTZ when they can simply board Alto? Now if Alto doesn't end up at Union, and there's some risk of that, you may have a case. But an Alto station that is connected to the GO network (say at East Harbour) is going to be substantially more accessible in the traffic hell that is Toronto, than YTZ, for most people. Doubly so if their origin/destination is in the Eastern half of the city. YTZ kinda sucks for anybody outside the downtown core and who has to use transit for any part of their journey (which is more common due to traffic and parking in Toronto).