Hybrid Warfare and Sabotage

[Kirkhill]

Warnings from POL intelligence based on past attacks on infrastructure.

Poland says hackers breached water treatment plants, and the US is facing the same threat | TechCrunch

A report by Poland’s top intelligence agency accused Russia of sabotage and hacking activities against the country’s military and civilian infrastructure.

techcrunch.com

Polish intelligence reveals attacks on water treatment plants, warns of takeover risk | Ukraine news - #Mezha

Polish intelligence says hackers targeted five water treatment plants, risking industrial control takeover and highlighting global threats to water infrastructure.

mezha.net

Polish Security Agency Reports ICS Breaches at Five Water Treatment Plants

The hackers gained the ability to modify equipment operational parameters, creating a direct risk to the public water supply.

www.securityweek.com

In case you can read Polish, attached is POL's Internal Security Agency report (58 pages) released earlier this week.

The Air Gap is your friend.

Air gap (networking) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Kirkhill]

An overt declaration of covert war?

UK drone factories may face attacks from 'unknown sources', says former Russian minister

The comments on BBC Newsnight come after the UK announced it has agreed to hand over blueprints for British-made missile components to Ukraine.

www.bbc.com

 

[KevinB]

An overt declaration of covert war?

I would say that Russia has actively been at war with the West for some time.

One of the latest. Explosive drone at German airport linked to Russian military intelligence, US intel source says

Going back 12 years, it is an open secret that the GRU blew up the weapons depot in Vrbětice Czechia killing two Czech nationals and injuring several. The name of the three members of Unit 21955 who conducted the bombing is also known to Western IC

Additionally Andrey Averyanov - Wikipedia is known to have conducted the recce and ordered it and several other ‘wet work’ activities in Europe (and elsewhere).

 

[Kirkhill]

I would say that Russia has actively been at war with the West for some time.

One of the latest. Explosive drone at German airport linked to Russian military intelligence, US intel source says

Going back 12 years, it is an open secret that the GRU blew up the weapons depot in Vrbětice Czechia killing two Czech nationals and injuring several. The name of the three members of Unit 21955 who conducted the bombing is also known to Western IC

Additionally Andrey Averyanov - Wikipedia is known to have conducted the recce and ordered it and several other ‘wet work’ activities in Europe (and elsewhere).

I agree.

What I find unique about this situation is that the Russians are effectively declaring that the Little Green Men, the deniable force that they launched into Ukraine, are in fact responsive to Russian orders.

There is no more deniability.

I'm curious to see how our politicians react to their loss of cover. Deniability helped them as much as it did Vlad.

 

[KevinB]

I agree.

What I find unique about this situation is that the Russians are effectively declaring that the Little Green Men, the deniable force that they launched into Ukraine, are in fact responsive to Russian orders.

There is no more deniability.

I'm curious to see how our politicians react to their loss of cover. Deniability helped them as much as it did Vlad.

I would say that even prior to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s demise, that Vladimir Putin had gambled that by outing Wagner (and the incredibly convoluted network of crisscrossed business networks) as part and parcel of the GRU, that the west would do nothing.
The book I mentioned elsewhere (Putin’s Sledgehammer) is the most detailed OS expose on Putin’s Russia - and how the little green men came to be.
The dichotomy that Russian Law forbids PMC’s - it allows certain companies security forces - but nothing like what Wagner became, and what Redut is now for Ukraine, or what “PMC Bear, otherwise known a 81st Special Forces Detachment (of VDV 45th Guards Spetsnaz Reconnaissance Brigade) does in Africa.
How Russia's GRU Set Up A Fake Private Military Company For Its War In Ukraine

Wiki has a remarkably thorough breakdown on the GRU.

 

[KevinB]

The fact that the UN (or anyone else) has sat by while Russian companies have been gobbling up Africa for over a decade - openly flouting weapon embargoes - is appalling.
The monies that Russia pulls out of Africa are increasing and can offset a lot of the losses of its domestic energy sector due to “Ukrainian Sanctions”.

Russia’s Africa footprint is deeper than imagined – GIS Reports

Russia has steadily increased its engagement in Africa, focusing on military presence, energy and infrastructure to secure resources and counter Western influence.

www.gisreportsonline.com

I tend to believe that the above is significantly undervalued - both in terms of $ but also Russian troop numbers.