Some important dates to be aware of and understand that are most likely influencing key decisions and announcements that are coming out of our Federal Government as well out of Trump's mouth.
1) 14/15 Sept - Canada Investment Summit in Toronto
- Over 100 large scale investment institutions are attending
- From over 11 countries
- 4 UAE institutions are attending that have previously announced investing over 70$B in Canadian infrastructure projects
2) 16 Sept - EU 'State of the Union' address in Strasbourg
- Carney is attending and is the keynote speaker on 17 Sept
- News reports are talking about a 'groundbreaking' new EU-Canada announcement on a wide ranging number of topics
- Could add a significant new tool in our toolbox
3) 15 Sept - Date of new tariffs to come in place from Trump
- Announced yesterday, new tariffs will be put in place against us. along with the banning of certain CDN goods from being imported to the US
- The date is key as it falls on the last day of Canada Investment Summit and the day before the EU State of the Union kick off
EDIT: Adding #4
4) 16 Sept - US Federal Reserve meeting
- The US Fed is meeting to discuss its next move on US interest rates.
- The market is currently running at a roughly 60% chance that the US will raise interest rates by 1/4
- Both Trump and Vance have loudly proclaimed that the Fed should be LOWERING interest rates at this meeting and that the US should have the lowest interest rates in the world
- A 1/4 rate interest increase will add tens of billions of the annual interest that the US has to pay on its 40 trillion nation debt - remember, they already pay 1$ trillion USD a year just on the interest on their debt
- A 1/4 rate interest increase will hit the US housing market hard as US mortgage rates will go up, affecting US affordability
- A 1/4 rate interest increase will cause the USD to appreciate in value, driving down US exports
- A 1/4 rate interest increase will cause car loan payments to increase, again affecting US affordability
5) 24 Sept - China-US Summit
- 1 Day meeting between Xi and Trump
- Trump is looking for a 'win' at home
- Totally unclear as to what will occur during this summit - the entire range of options is wide open, from 'slash and burn' the relationship all the way to 'Xi and Trump holding hands and singing Karaoke together. You pick.
5) 9 Sept onwards - US-Iran War (yes I'm calling it a 'war' because The Donald did on Truth Social over the weekend
- Continuing the 'Song That Never Ends' with no end in site.
Did I leave anything out?
Over the next 15 days, these are the items that are going to occupy the limited capacity that remains in Trump's mind. Items #1 and 2 are going to be front and center because for The Donald to 'break us in order to own us', #1 cannot be seen as a success by us and those attending and #2 cannot be allowed to occur, I suspect, under The Donald's new interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine. If #1 and #2 are a success for us, then The Donald will be seen over more as a loser and mocked even more. It will have him 'look weak' in front of Xi on 24 September during the summit in the US.
Love to hear feedback, additional points, counterpoints, shortcomings, whatever. That is how I learn, broaden my understanding, expand my knowledge and more forward.