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Trump administration 2024-2028

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Fire code? What's that?


All the more reason to knock it down whenever there is a regime change down there.
 
A premonition or canary in the coalmine for the AI bubble pop?


Sometimes the most obscure, little item standing by itself triggers a major event.
 
A premonition or canary in the coalmine for the AI bubble pop?


The USD-JPY FX rate is back at 159 Yen to the USD. Remember 160 to 1 triggered some major interventions by the US Fed a short while ago.
 
30yr mortgages in the US over now over 7% - 90% of ALL US households choose the 30yr mortgage.
It was 6.41% during the 07/08 sub-prime crisis, which led to a global intervention and a massive reduction in interest rates. That option is not available right now due to higher inflation....

This will not end well
 
Oof. A spike in Japanese yields won’t necessarily unwind the existing carry trade (as that debt is already held), but it sure as hell will make it less attractive to roll over or to open new positions in same.
And Bessent doesn’t have many more Euros in his back pocket to help if the Japanese inflation returns and pushes the Yen above 160 again…this time with higher inflation numbers than when Bessent spent €4B-ish last time (to keep USD avail for the round of short-term refinance he did on the longer-term treasuries)… 🍿

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Oof. A spike in Japanese yields won’t necessarily unwind the existing carry trade (as that debt is already held), but it sure as hell will make it less attractive to roll over or to open new positions in same.
There was weak demand yesterday for US Treasuries. I haven't checked on today's auction this morning but I suspect that it would be weak as well.
 
And here it is.

Seven-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average​



The Treasury Department finished off this week's series of announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions on Thursday, revealing this month's sale of $44 billion worth of seven-year notes attracted below average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 5.085 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.42

Last month, the Treasury also sold $44 billion worth of seven-year notes, drawing a high yield of 4.512 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.50.

Earlier this week, the Treasury announced the results of this month's auctions of $69 billion worth of two-year notes and $70 billion worth of five-year notes.

The two-year note auction attracted average demand, while the five-year note auction attracted well below average demand
 
There was weak demand yesterday for US Treasuries. I haven't checked on today's auction this morning but I suspect that it would be weak as well.
I haven’t seen today’s 7-year either, but the 2 admnd 5-year auctions were horrible. Bid to cover of 2.21 and trending lower and tail prices 3 basis points above WI also trending high…
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