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Trump administration 2024-2028

liveblogging sylvester stallone GIF


Fire code? What's that?


All the more reason to knock it down whenever there is a regime change down there.
 
A premonition or canary in the coalmine for the AI bubble pop?


Sometimes the most obscure, little item standing by itself triggers a major event.
 
A premonition or canary in the coalmine for the AI bubble pop?


The USD-JPY FX rate is back at 159 Yen to the USD. Remember 160 to 1 triggered some major interventions by the US Fed a short while ago.
 
30yr mortgages in the US over now over 7% - 90% of ALL US households choose the 30yr mortgage.
It was 6.41% during the 07/08 sub-prime crisis, which led to a global intervention and a massive reduction in interest rates. That option is not available right now due to higher inflation....

This will not end well
 
Oof. A spike in Japanese yields won’t necessarily unwind the existing carry trade (as that debt is already held), but it sure as hell will make it less attractive to roll over or to open new positions in same.
And Bessent doesn’t have many more Euros in his back pocket to help if the Japanese inflation returns and pushes the Yen above 160 again…this time with higher inflation numbers than when Bessent spent €4B-ish last time (to keep USD avail for the round of short-term refinance he did on the longer-term treasuries)… 🍿

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Oof. A spike in Japanese yields won’t necessarily unwind the existing carry trade (as that debt is already held), but it sure as hell will make it less attractive to roll over or to open new positions in same.
There was weak demand yesterday for US Treasuries. I haven't checked on today's auction this morning but I suspect that it would be weak as well.
 
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