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27 Sep 2026 - British counterterrorism op near RAF Fairford

brihard said:
Tough to know how credible this is, but the Telegraph is quoting a local who claims to have been driving home, come upon the three vans parked blocking the road, and saw several men, some with masks or balaclavas, scattering. She then called police.

From the start of this morning’s reporting I’ve been perplexed at how neatly the vans are parked, fanned out blocking the road. A high risk takedown would likely not look like that. If in fact they were detected just after they’d dismounted, maybe there’s more credibility to both claims by authorities - that this has in fact been actively investigated for some time, but also that a call from a civilian tipped off the immediate takedown as an emergency response. That would also be consistent with the reported force protection measures.

if in fact this is true, it raises serious questions about just how near a miss this was. And what will we learn the suspects had- drones? Firearms?

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Reading about it earlier I had a similar thought. I couldn't see a takedown plan that would involve letting the attackers get kitted-up, and enter a village.

It's possible the police knew that the guys were planning something, and it's equally possible the police lost track of them and just happened to get a lucky break as the guys were about to launch an attack.
 
daftandbarmy said:
As ever, it is the patriotic vigilance of the typical British middle class (snoopy) householder, in a small rural village, that keeps us all safe at night.
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Canada has those types too. I have been described as having natural curiosity....which can lead to suspicions.

Our neighbor Carol (God rest her soul) knew every coming and going in the neighbourhood.
 
Furniture said:
Reading about it earlier I had a similar thought. I couldn't see a takedown plan that would involve letting the attackers get kitted-up, and enter a village.

It's possible the police knew that the guys were planning something, and it's equally possible the police lost track of them and just happened to get a lucky break as the guys were about to launch an attack.
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The RoE in 'mainland' UK are super restrictive.

They might have been waiting for the bad guys to show their hand so they could take them out, or to confirm who else was involved so they could bag them all at once, then 911 was called and they couldn't wait any longer.

It would be unlikely that the three vans were the only ones involved in an op like that, and there might have been recce/ comms/ cut off type groups involved too.
 
Furniture said:
Reading about it earlier I had a similar thought. I couldn't see a takedown plan that would involve letting the attackers get kitted-up, and enter a village.

It's possible the police knew that the guys were planning something, and it's equally possible the police lost track of them and just happened to get a lucky break as the guys were about to launch an attack.
Click to expand...
It’s entirely possible that was the takedown plan for a couple reasons. There are more reasons why they would be saying that it wasn’t intelligence lead.
 
While the television show "The Wargame (2026)" is a U.K. docudrama, the show does convey an overview of a few of the possible processes U.K. government officials are faced with when dealing with conflict on their own soil.
 
daftandbarmy said:
The RoE in 'mainland' UK are super restrictive.

They might have been waiting for the bad guys to show their hand so they could take them out, or to confirm who else was involved so they could bag them all at once, then 911 was called and they couldn't wait any longer.

It would be unlikely that the three vans were the only ones involved in an op like that, and there might have been recce/ comms/ cut off type groups involved too.
Click to expand...
Does 5 guys across 3 vans sound right?

Would it make sense that 1 van contained only 1 guy? Could the 1 guy/1van be the one to crash/bomb the gate and the other 2 vans be follow on? I'm certainly not a knowledgeable person on this stuff but wouldn't make more sense to have 2 vans, 1 guy/1van to take out the gate and then 4 guys in the follow on van where 3 can immediately jump out and engage while 1 remains behind the wheel?
 
Counter Terrorism Policing in the UK is a separate entity, although Gloucestershire Constabulary might have members seconded to it. I suspect the largest contributory 'territorial' police service would be The Met. They might have been watching the group but lacked enough intelligence on the target and/or timing until the last moment.

According to Wiki, Gloucester has about 1300 regular members. Who knows how many armed members they would have around at that time of day if the need for a takedown came as a surprise.

Part of me suspects that they don't tell Trump anything out of fear that he can't keep his yap shut. His statement could simply be an off-the-cuff generic response.
 
Had to toss a bone to the media and the masses I suppose.
 
lenaitch said:
Counter Terrorism Policing in the UK is a separate entity, although Gloucestershire Constabulary might have members seconded to it. I suspect the largest contributory 'territorial' police service would be The Met. They might have been watching the group but lacked enough intelligence on the target and/or timing until the last moment.

According to Wiki, Gloucester has about 1300 regular members. Who knows how many armed members they would have around at that time of day if the need for a takedown came as a surprise.

Part of me suspects that they don't tell Trump anything out of fear that he can't keep his yap shut. His statement could simply be an off-the-cuff generic response.
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CTP’s an interesting structure. It appears to be a standalone entity, though the senior execs are assigned from London Met. They have regional units led by the largest police service of that region and staffed by other services. For contrast, in Canada the closest would be RCMP INSET, but they’re all firmly and formally RCMP units under RCMP command, with a relatively modest number of provincial/municipal police, CBSA, and maybe a few others seconded in.
Booter said:
It’s entirely possible that was the takedown plan for a couple reasons. There are more reasons why they would be saying that it wasn’t intelligence lead.
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This one’s so hard to read… Given how much seemed to be in place ready to react fast, and the clear threat intelligence they obviously had, sure as hell they knew something imminent was coming. But if they knew of the three vans specifically and were waiting ‘in ambush’ for a takedown, I struggle to imagine they’d not have had a moving cordon some distance behind them, probably backed with aerial surveillance, and would have intercepted the bystander vehicle. Then again it’s possible because she was local that she went mobile while already within such a cordon. Frigged if I can tell.

I struggle to think they would have knowingly let multiple known threat actors dismount and get moving in a rural village; that’s all kinds of bad news bears. But then we only know a little, can reasonably infer a modest amount more, and we don’t know tons.

Now to add to the bizarreness of this, the Brits have announced the five arrested are being released on bail. To me that’s incongruous with a serious violent threat.

No announcement of charges yet, but it may be that the release on bail versus holding in custody is intended to allow more time to investigate and file. Yet I can’t help but think that had they found explosives or other weapons, there would be a strong push to remain in custody.

This one is increasingly baffling to me.

www.bbc.com

RAF Fairford suspects to be released on bail, head of counter-terror police says

Laurence Taylor says the five men arrested on Sunday are still under investigation as police consider multiple lines of inquiry, including the possible involvement of a foreign state.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
This is weird. A dry test run to check reactions? Baffling indeed.
 
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