Topic: Run Up to Election 2019

[YZT580]

But that's not campaigning;  no election has been announced, right?   

  Why would Justin call an election before he absolutely has to.  Right now he can hand out money as the government (not just make a promise).  He is also flying around at our expense and in CAF aircraft.  That's big money when you consider charter costs.

[Haggis]

  Why would Justin call an election before he absolutely has to.  Right now he can hand out money as the government (not just make a promise).  He is also flying around at our expense and in CAF aircraft.  That's big money when you consider charter costs.

I believe he has to call it by no later than this coming Sunday.  Until then, the money taps will be open full blast.

[Fishbone Jones]

https://www.spencerfernando.com/2019/09/09/andrew-scheer-fights-back-after-liberals-make-fun-of-poor-canadians/

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer is fighting back after the elitist Liberals made fun of poor Canadians by spreading the hashtag #ScheerWasSoPoorThat.

Among those spreading the hashtag was Liberal MP Gagan Sikand.

Scheer fought back on Twitter:

    “Like millions of Canadians, I grew up middle class. When Trudeau’s Liberal MPs mock me for that, they mock you too.”

    Like millions of Canadians, I grew up middle class. When Trudeau’s Liberal MPs mock me for that, they mock you too. pic.twitter.com/D5aCiA9tOm

    — Andrew Scheer (@AndrewScheer) September 9, 2019

I can only hope that the Conservatives capitalize on this one. Now that the writ is close, the liberals are showing their true, arrogant, Laurentien Elitist colours. This has the potential to turn lots of votes and take a huge chunk out of the liberals ***.

This, and trudeau's refusal to join other debates, which he can't control and stack, are going to become major points of derision for him and his party.

Lastly, Canadians aren't stupid. They can see the game the liberals are playing with taxpayer money, trying to bribe votes. They remember all the promises from four years ago that were nothing but unfulfilled lies. They also see the lopsided campaigning he's doing, again at taxpayer expense, by withholding the writ and disadvantaging the other parties.

The stink of desperation is getting thick and pungent around the liberals and even die hard grits are leaving instead of holding their noses.

While Bernier tries splitting the vote in favour of the liberals, trudeau and team are wasting it by splitting the vote for the Conservatives.

[211RadOp]

From CTV News

Trudeau to launch federal election on Wednesday

Rachel Aiello Ottawa News Bureau Online Producer
@rachaiello  | Contact
Published Tuesday, September 10, 2019 1:07PM EDT  Last Updated Tuesday, September 10, 2019 1:30PM EDT

OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to launch the 2019 federal election campaign on Wednesday.

Trudeau is expected to visit the Governor General at Rideau Hall tomorrow and ask her to dissolve the 42nd Parliament, and draw up the writs for all 338 ridings across Canada.

Calling the election then means that Canadians will be in for five-and-a-half weeks of campaigning, seeing the federal party leaders crisscrossing the country and pitching themselves, their candidates, and their platforms, before voters go to the polls on Oct. 21.

The 41-day campaign will be just under half the length of the marathon 78-day election in 2015.

Despite a summer full of parties exchanging partisan attacks, and campaign ads and slogans being unveiled, tomorrow will mark the official kickoff. With the formal launch expect the battling for votes to ramp up, expect more partisan mudslinging, rallies with supporters across the country, as well as a daily offering of new platform proposals and policy ideas for Canadians to weigh when deciding who they'll cast their ballot for.

More at link

https://election.ctvnews.ca/trudeau-to-launch-federal-election-on-wednesday-1.4586315

[Old Sweat]

"The 41-day campaign will be just under half the length of the marathon 78-day election in 2015."

Oh, really?

[milnews.ca]

"The 41-day campaign will be just under half the length of the marathon 78-day election in 2015."

Oh, really?

#EyeSukAttUrithmuhtick

[dapaterson]

"The 41-day campaign will be just under half the length of the marathon 78-day election in 2015."

Oh, really?

Apparently, a $600M media bailout doesn't buy math skills.

[milnews.ca]

Apparently, a $600M media bailout doesn't buy math skills.

To be fair, it appears CTV doesn't qualify (still no excuse for poor math skills, though) - and it's still a proposed bailout given CRA's still working out the details:

… “The Government is in the process of considering the recommendations of the panel, which will inform the process that will be put in place in the near future to administer these tax measures,” a CRA spokesperson told CTVNews.ca via email.

The panel recommended that in the case of websites that offer video content, 60 per cent of the content must be written in order to qualify. Additionally, a minimum of 50 per cent of a news outlet’s content must be original news content to qualify.

However, because the funding is aimed at bolstering the print news industry, CTV News and other major broadcasters will not qualify.

(…)

News media outlets are not yet able to apply for the tax credits, although the salaried tax benefit will be retroactive from January 2019.

( … )

The government is still in the process of considering the recommendations issued by the Journalism and Written Media Independent Panel of Experts.

“A timeline for implementation will be officialised once the process is finalized,” a CRA spokesperson told CTVNews.ca via email.

The CRA added that news media outlets that may be eligible for the refundable tax credit of labour costs, and file their tax returns before the process is put in place, will be able to amend them later if they are designated as a qualified journalism organization ...

And I suspect processes will slow down even more once the latest version of this kicks in.

[Brihard]

https://www.spencerfernando.com/2019/09/09/andrew-scheer-fights-back-after-liberals-make-fun-of-poor-canadians/

The stink of desperation is getting thick and pungent around the liberals and even die hard grits are leaving instead of holding their noses.

While Bernier tries splitting the vote in favour of the liberals, trudeau and team are wasting it by splitting the vote for the Conservatives.

Got anything to back that assertion? I haven’t seen any indication for a few weeks now that the LPC are trending down again; certainly nothing so eyebrow-raising as a trend of ‘die-hard Grits’ pulling up (Laurentian?) stakes and ambling off to bluer pastures. On the contrary they seem to be gaining at the NDP’s expense.

I take a bit of consolation in the fact that the PPC appear very nearly dead in the water and hopefully unlikely to split the vote with any significance. Despite a pretty full slate they’re cruising solidly in ‘also-ran’ territory, and I think a lot of the voters they’re attracting will chicken out and vote CPC if it looks necessary to stave off a Liberal victory, or at least hold it to a minority. At this point that’s probably the vital ground.

[Remius]

338canada’s latest.


http://338canada.com/

Looks like the LPC is starting stronger than it should be.  Campaigns matter though so we’ll see.

[ModlrMike]

But apparently this will not be a "first past the post" election. 

[Fishbone Jones]

Haha, polls. Might as well be tossing bones or reading tea leaves. Using polls to back a point is a crap shoot at best. But hey, don't let me stop you.

[Remius]

But apparently this will not be a "first past the post" election. 

Lol.  I’m pretty sure that was the first broken promise.

Looks like the writ might drop tomorrow so this thing will finally get into full gear.

[Brihard]

Haha, polls. Might as well be tossing bones or reading tea leaves. Using polls to back a point is a crap shoot at best. But hey, don't let me stop you.

They are dubious at best for gauging results, but decent enough for spotting support trends and seeing what direction sentiment is moving in, inasmuch as the errors polls are prone to will generally be reasonably constant. Broad longitudinal samples of polling data should show trajectory reasonably well.

In any case you are the one who asserted that hard party loyalists are fleeing the liberals; it’s your claim. I see nothing backing it, and the only evidence at hand points to the contrary. Where’s the beef? If not polls, what do you base your claim on? It’s fundamentally a numerical assertion- it should be empirically supportable if even vaguely true.

[Dimsum]

Maxime Bernier faces new challenger in Beauce riding: Maxime Bernier
Rachel Gilmore
CTVNews.ca Writer
@atRachelGilmore | Contact

Published Tuesday, September 10, 2019 5:10PM EDT

People's Party Leader Maxime Bernier has another challenger in his Beauce riding for the fall election: Maxime Bernier.

In a French press release sent to CTV News on Tuesday, the Rhinoceros Party confirmed they will run a candidate who shares the same name as the incumbent for the Quebec riding.

"There are many people who tell me: I want to vote for Maxime Bernier, and I want to vote Rhinoceros! And so, I've offered them an option so they can vote Rhino and Bernier!" said Rhino Party Leader Sébastien CoRhino Corriveau in the release, which was written in French.

More on link

https://election.ctvnews.ca/maxime-bernier-faces-new-challenger-in-beauce-riding-maxime-bernier-1.4586991?fbclid=IwAR2dM4cZX6aTsMwQBKhp3LGI1ZbmUSNCf-ukCD7q2-IBDFtU9BbfLLuYHd8

[ModlrMike]

Seriously though... What sort of discourse follows if the Liberals form the government, but the Conservatives win the popular vote? How will the left wrap its head around that one?

[Brad Sallows]

>How will the left wrap its head around that one?

Probably the same way it did in BC in 1996.  Claim a mandate and carry on.

[Brihard]

https://election.ctvnews.ca/maxime-bernier-faces-new-challenger-in-beauce-riding-maxime-bernier-1.4586991?fbclid=IwAR2dM4cZX6aTsMwQBKhp3LGI1ZbmUSNCf-ukCD7q2-IBDFtU9BbfLLuYHd8

Dammit, you beat me to it. That is mastery level trolling by the Rhinos.

What would be truly hilarious would be if ‘their’ Maxime Bernier picked up enough votes that, if added to PPC Bernier’s total, PPC Bernier would have won the seat but didn’t. You want to see a tantrum on the way out the door...

[milnews.ca]

Seriously though... What sort of discourse follows if the Liberals form the government, but the Conservatives win the popular vote? How will the left wrap its head around that one?

Has that happened often under FPTP here?  Opposition getting more popular vote?

It'll make for interesting political fodder/memeing, but until the system changes, whoever gets more seats wins, like it or not for either side.  It's like the memes saying "s/he doesn't speak for me because they didn't take a majority of the popular vote" - although generally, the "against" vote isn't concentrated with just one party.

P.S. -- In case anyone's interested, there's already been a fair bit of discussion in these parts on changing systems here in Canada.

[Retired AF Guy]

Nice way to start off the election:

BREAKING: Liberal government block RCMP’s SNC-Lavalin investigation

Siddak Ahuja, 8 hours ago 1 min read 

The RCMP has had their attempts to look into potential obstruction of justice in the SNC-Lavalin affair blocked by the Trudeau government.

According to another explosive report from The Globe and Mail, Ottawa refused to lift cabinet confidentiality for all witnesses, seriously limiting the capacity for the RCMP to actually look into the matter.

    Ottawa blocks RCMP on SNC-Lavalin inquiry – The Globe and Mail #SNCLavalin #cdnpoli #elex43 https://t.co/ND65by97Nb
    — Robert Fife (@RobertFife) September 11, 2019

According to the report, sources which spoke to The Globe and Mail were allegedly told to not discuss matters regarding the scandal with police officials.

The reason behind the secrecy was cabinet confidentiality. Liberals say that a waiver for confidentiality was not provided by the Clerk of the Privy Council, meaning that people in the know-how did not have the privilege to speak to the RCMP or the Ethics Commissioner.

Earlier in the year, Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion faced similar stonewalling during his inquiries which accumulated in the Trudeau II report alleging that the prime minister had broken ethics laws.

Sources claim that the RCMP were allegedly investigating the possibility of obstruction of justice in the affair.

“If [the RCMP] were serious enough, they would probably get a search warrant, but that would probably be shot down by the courts. The privilege is pretty strong at the cabinet level,” said former commissioner of the RCMP, Bob Paulson.

    Unprecedented. This story confirms what we have suspected all along: the Prime Ministers Office is attempting to interfere & obstruct justice in the SNC Lavalin criminal prosecution. Just like with the Ethics Commissioner, they are not cooperating with the RCMP investigation. https://t.co/y2QrzGkj0x
    — Lisa Raitt (@lraitt) September 11, 2019

Around the same time that the RCMP allegedly investigated the matter, the Conservative Party was requesting that the national police force looks into the affair.

Article Link

Apparently Daniel Leblanc and Robert Fife at the Globe and Mail have another report that goes into more details, but its behind a paid firewall.

[PuckChaser]

Has that happened often under FPTP here?  Opposition getting more popular vote?

Did some research, apparently popular vote counts before 1960 are a crap shoot but it's only ever happened in a minority government situation, last one being 1979 election with Joe Clark at 36% and Trudeau Sr at 40%, but the Tories had more seats.

The left typically use the meme that XX% of people DIDN'T vote for the right leaning candidate, so therefore the results aren't legitimate. They forget that it is exceedingly difficult to gain both a majority of seats and majority of popular vote in the FPTP system, so all those Liberal PMs must not have been legitimate either.

[milnews.ca]

Did some research, apparently popular vote counts before 1960 are a crap shoot but it's only ever happened in a minority government situation, last one being 1979 election with Joe Clark at 36% and Trudeau Sr at 40%, but the Tories had more seats.

Thanks for the digging - much appreciated!

The left typically use the meme that XX% of people DIDN'T vote for the right leaning candidate, so therefore the results aren't legitimate. They forget that it is exceedingly difficult to gain both a majority of seats and majority of popular vote in the FPTP system, so all those Liberal PMs must not have been legitimate either.

It wasn't the left meme-ing this argument after PMJT got in - and you're bang on re:  FPTP & popular vote #'s.

Circling back to your original question, how likely do you see a Conservative popular vote majority this time (realizing it's still early days)?

[Fishbone Jones]

Trudeau goes full on despot and obstructs the RCMP from investigating his crimes and we're discussing FPTP.

[PuckChaser]

Circling back to your original question, how likely do you see a Conservative popular vote majority this time (realizing it's still early days)?

With a majority of the Liberal support firmly entrenched in the echo-chamber that is the GTA, I really can't see any scenario that the Tories end up with the lead in popular vote. They're too good at using the system as intended: targetting swing ridings with low populations to gain seats. The only way I see GTA support faltering is with a criminal indictment of Justin Trudeau for the SNC Lavalin scandal, which is seeming less likely after they blocked investigator access to documents that some experts even think a search warrant won't overturn.

[Remius]

Thanks for the digging - much appreciated!
It wasn't the left meme-ing this argument after PMJT got in - and you're bang on re:  FPTP & popular vote #'s.

Circling back to your original question, how likely do you see a Conservative popular vote majority this time (realizing it's still early days)?

I remember when the PCs were reduced to 2 seats in the HoC.  Joe Clark tried to make a case for party status based on their popular vote which was still quite high.

Parties care when it affects them.  Not so much when it's someone else.