2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

[OldSolduer]

That is a very good question Lumber. I’m afraid I have no answer for it right now. I’ll mull this over during the day and see if my pea brain can come up with a coherent answer. No promises though

I still have no answer - mind you I have been kinda busy.

 

[RangerRay]

Jesus, my brain is just like Kinsella’s right now…

Campaign notebook: Warren's brain during this campaign

It's messy in there.

thewarrenkinsella.substack.com

 

[Eaglelord17]

A friend mentioned to me how by delaying the election the NDP likely caused their own demise.

If they had not provided support in December yes the Conservatives would likely have won a majority but it would also likely have resulted in a NDP opposition.

It would have broken the whole ‘strategic’ voting system people vote Liberal over as it would have proven them to be a viable party for governance (2nd time as a opposition leader) and may have even convinced some to strategically vote for them in the future.

Amazing how fast things have changed.

 

[RangerRay]

A friend mentioned to me how by delaying the election the NDP likely caused their own demise.

If they had not provided support in December yes the Conservatives would likely have won a majority but it would also likely have resulted in a NDP opposition.

It would have broken the whole ‘strategic’ voting system people vote Liberal over as it would have proven them to be a viable party for governance (2nd time as a opposition leader) and may have even convinced some to strategically vote for them in the future.

Amazing how fast things have changed.

Yep. The Dippers definitely shit the bed on that. Singh is continuing to make his party irrelevant by attacking the Tories and going on about supermarket collusion.

 

[ModlrMike]

Yep. It looks like BC is the main source of their misfortune. Last election they took 15 seats, this time their leading in one, all of which appear to be going Liberal this time around.

 

[Halifax Tar]

A friend mentioned to me how by delaying the election the NDP likely caused their own demise.

If they had not provided support in December yes the Conservatives would likely have won a majority but it would also likely have resulted in a NDP opposition.

It would have broken the whole ‘strategic’ voting system people vote Liberal over as it would have proven them to be a viable party for governance (2nd time as a opposition leader) and may have even convinced some to strategically vote for them in the future.

Amazing how fast things have changed.

Ya they are the biggest loser in all this. They have gone from competing for official opposition to just trying to have a seat presence in the HoC now.

JSs time as leader of the NDP has to be over. And I think it's a shame as I thought he was best leader, just in the wrong party for a while.

 

[Eaglelord17]

Ya they are the biggest loser in all this. They have gone from competing for official opposition to just trying to have a seat presence in the HoC now.

JSs time as leader of the NDP has to be over. And I think it's a shame as I thought he was best leader, just in the wrong party for a while.

I never cared for his policies, but during the debates I watched last election he was the only one with the decorum I expect out of a politician looking to be prime minister.

Never watched the current debates but was it them all shouting over each other again or was there some actual proper debating going on?

 

[HavokFour]

Can't tell if wholly unprepared after years of calling for an election, or if Carney really did throw a massive wrench in his axe the tax schtick. Or is this just some of that good ol' "transparency"?

Poilievre says costed platform is coming 'soon,' becoming last leader to release a plan
Alt: https://archive.ph/8BD9I

 

[Blackadder1916]

Good.

Though their name recognition is lacking. Yesterday, during the poll worker training I attended, as we were discussing how we were to dress while working, specifically which colours to avoid, yellow was brought up and the question was asked if there was a party who used it in their identity. As individuals went through some of the parties who had candidates running in our riding, no one brought up the CFP until after the obscure and fringe players (like the Rhinoceros party) were eliminated. I mentioned the CFP then (I wasn't aware of them using yellow) but no one else in the room, including the trainer, had heard of the party.

I'll admit that I had to check and it surprised me, but my electoral district is one of the 19 ridings (6 in Alberta) that has a CFP candidate on the ballot. I suppose I'll now have to be on the lookout for any of their party logos (it's actually very well done and understated but the FA initials - Future Avenir - lends itself to other less flattering interpretation).

 

[Quirky]

We are well on our way to becoming the Argentina of North America....how people don't see it us utterly mind boggling...

Thank these NPCs

https://twitter.com/x/status/1913741521234387297

 

[Jarnhamar]

Let's not put the cart before the horse.

That platform is 300 carts being put before horses, except fighter jets.
On the bright side infantry won't get stuck doing airfield security anytime soon.

Actually it doesn't look like they mention destroyers either.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Thank these NPCs

https://twitter.com/x/status/1913741521234387297

Did the "elbows up" hockey player actually fight like someone doing the chicken dance?

 

[Remius]

Yep. The Dippers definitely shit the bed on that. Singh is continuing to make his party irrelevant by attacking the Tories and going on about supermarket collusion.

Or…what if the LPC gets a minority and the NDP are kingmakers again. Even without party status if their numbers put the LPC over then they are arguably in a more favourable position.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Can't tell if wholly unprepared after years of calling for an election, or if Carney really did throw a massive wrench in his axe the tax schtick. Or is this just some of that good ol' "transparency"?

Poilievre says costed platform is coming 'soon,' becoming last leader to release a plan
Alt: https://archive.ph/8BD9I

As the others seem to have been 'borrowing' CPC ideas (e.g., axe the carbon tax) I'm guessing they're waiting to make sure they have some recognizably different offerings in their platform.

 

[Jarnhamar]

Or…what if the LPC gets a minority and the NDP are kingmakers again. Even without party status if their numbers put the LPC over then they are arguably in a more favourable position.

Gross. I'd rather the LPC just get a majority.
#LetThereBeCarnage!

 

[brihard]

Or…what if the LPC gets a minority and the NDP are kingmakers again. Even without party status if their numbers put the LPC over then they are arguably in a more favourable position.

Still a real possibility. I don’t think anyone can really predict how this will go. Added to everything else so far, we can now add record first day early voting turnout, without being able to gauge what that actually means.

We could also easily see both sides within the Margin of Tabarnac of commanding confidence in the house, and Blanchet as kingmaker.

 

[suffolkowner]

i think calls of the death of the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have been premature

 

[dapaterson]

i think calls of the death of the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have been premature

Calls of or calls for?

 

[brihard]

i think calls of the death of the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP have been premature

All will carry on.

LPC have the best odds of winning right now, but if not they will likely be the opposition to a minority CPC, with confidence within reach.

CPC are likely to… go through some things. Much internal drama and jockeying of factions. But there’s clearly an appetite from roughly 35-40% of voters for Canada to have a right of centre party; ‘how far right’ and ‘manifesting how’ are the big question marks and play a significant role in electoral success or failure. CPC know that if they fracture they’re done; they’ll figure out a way to rebuild their next internally awkward coalition.

NDP’s fortunes wax and wane federally, but they have a rock solid provincial base that serves as a few different ‘farm teams’. To wit, we’re probably seeing the ascent of Wab Kinew. NDP are there when they get the right conjunction of leadership and political opportunity, and when the LPC oscillate too centrist, leaving the left in need of somewhere to go to regroup.

I don’t see these three going anywhere.

Bloc are their on thing, also not going anywhere.

Greens and PPC each exist as protest votes or as a refuge for a somewhat nutty fringe. We would need a super weirdly constituted Parliament for greens to be relevant, and the PPC can offer nothing beyond the potential humanity of spoiling some seats that are within reach of the CPC. Either could, conceivably fold… I doubt either will due to egos. Both offer different lessons should we ever look to proportional representation.

 

[dapaterson]

CPC know if they fracture that they're done. They are also experts at fratricide and fracturing. The putsch of OToole is still fresh in many minds and an electoral loss would provide the necessary grounds for Vengeance.