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2025 Federal Election - 28 Apr 25

CPC know if they fracture that they're done. They are also experts at fratricide and fracturing. The putsch of OToole is still fresh in many minds and an electoral loss would provide the necessary grounds for Vengeance.
Right; a loss will see Poilievre pushed out of a political window and they’ll make sure Byrne is there to break his landing, but from too great a height to matter. But I don’t see the Conservative Party of Canada fracturing into two or more constituent parts. They’ll recognize that, if Carney wins, they badly need to find a way to rebuild appeal for centrist swing voters that deliver elections.
 
CPC are likely to… go through some things. Much internal drama and jockeying of factions. But there’s clearly an appetite from roughly 35-40% of voters for Canada to have a right of centre party; ‘how far right’ and ‘manifesting how’ are the big question marks and play a significant role in electoral success or failure. CPC know that if they fracture they’re done; they’ll figure out a way to rebuild their next internally awkward coalition.

It will confirm that the Reform/Alliance using PCs experiment has run its course.

Either give the PC side a go (like Harper promised MacKay) or face perpetual opposition status.
 
Right; a loss will see Poilievre pushed out of a political window and they’ll make sure Byrne is there to break his landing, but from too great a height to matter. But I don’t see the Conservative Party of Canada fracturing into two or more constituent parts. They’ll recognize that, if Carney wins, they badly need to find a way to rebuild appeal for centrist swing voters that deliver elections.
It's not just the CPC who get a vote. From what I understand, the media reports on internal dissention within the CPC during this campaign were initially driven by LPC insiders.
 
It's not just the CPC who get a vote. From what I understand, the media reports on internal dissention within the CPC during this campaign were initially driven by LPC insiders.
No doubt. The LPC is a corrupt organization worthy of RICO investigation, if we had such a thing.
 

Some first post debate polling showing up in the aggregate.

So far no major movement. LPC and CPC narrowing a bit on voter intention. Seat projection still pointing to a LPC majority.

We’ll see if further post election polls move that needle but so far everything is still stabilized from before.
i dont know if i like this narrowing of the parties relevance down to two
 
i dont know if i like this narrowing of the parties relevance down to two
You can thank Jagmeet Singh’s lack of strategic foresight in December.

Had he helped defeat the government when Trudeau was PM and before they could prorogue to have a leadership contest, he would leader of the official opposition, right now.
 

Some first post debate polling showing up in the aggregate.

So far no major movement. LPC and CPC narrowing a bit on voter intention. Seat projection still pointing to a LPC majority.

We’ll see if further post election polls move that needle but so far everything is still stabilized from before.
Mainstreet’s still a really weird outlier from basically everyone else, showing a Conservative lead. I wonder what they’re doing differently?
 
You can thank Jagmeet Singh’s lack of strategic foresight in December.

Had he helped defeat the government when Trudeau was PM and before they could prorogue to have a leadership contest, he would leader of the official opposition, right now.
i dont think its clear that it is a priority for Singh or the NDP. Maybe the leadership review will reveal more but weve discussed this before. Is it the interests of the NDP to facilitate a CPC win? I wonder how many still blame Jack for flying to close to the sun?
 
Mainstreet’s still a really weird outlier from basically everyone else, showing a Conservative lead. I wonder what they’re doing differently?
Still well within the margin of error and may not be reflective of seat count either.
 
Still well within the margin of error and may not be reflective of seat count either.
It could be we are just seeing random statistical variations.

Or this one is actually a closer contest than most people are thinking it will be, so it doesn’t take much to move the needle, either way.
 
Can you state what sections of the criminal code you think the party violated?
Nope. Not digging into Dept of Justice Canada for chapter and verse to satisfy your curiosity. I've stated my position on liberal malfeasance a number of times here. You can go back and read if you're that interested.

 
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