Liberal Minority Government 2025 - ???

[brihard]

I think we’ll see a significant mandate reduction.

Technology continues to improve. OSTs will come down. That’s a near inevitability of tech and industry. As volume increases there will be economies of scale.

For a lot of us, PHEVs have now matured to a point where they’re a fantastic option at the next price point. For my regular use, if I had one I might gas up a few times a year.

But a lot of people and enterprises in Canada will still need mostly ICE due to their use cases, and that will remain the case for quite some time.

Canada’s too small a market to drive the changeover. Realistically we’ll be riding the wake of larger markets in terms of available supply and pricing.

 

[Czech_pivo]

I think we’ll see a significant mandate reduction.

Technology continues to improve. OSTs will come down. That’s a near inevitability of tech and industry. As volume increases there will be economies of scale.

For a lot of us, PHEVs have now matured to a point where they’re a fantastic option at the next price point. For my regular use, if I had one I might gas up a few times a year.

But a lot of people and enterprises in Canada will still need mostly ICE due to their use cases, and that will remain the case for quite some time.

Canada’s too small a market to drive the changeover. Realistically we’ll be riding the wake of larger markets in terms of available supply and pricing.

I've posted about this previously.

When Toyota went public last year that it had zero intentions of making the 2035 schedule for NA, the entire idea of 2035 died with them. No Toyota on board, no way in hell that this was going to happen, and viola, here we are, awaiting official news that Canada has awakened to this fact before the US has.

 

[brihard]

PM’s daily schedule has an announcement at 11 Eastern regarding “Canada’s strategic sectors”.

We can expect reporters to probably spend at least a bit of time asking about the pretty ugly jobs numbers that just came out; 60,000 part time and 6,000 full time jobs lost in August. Unemployment rate climbs to 7.1 per cent in August as economy loses 66,000 jobs

 

[Altair]

California is significant to compared to the Canadian market for sure, but less so compared to the rest of the US. In terms of sales, Florida and Texas aren't far behind; and they might be considered a tad 'less progressive'. According to this website, California sold roughly 1.75Mn vehicles, but that out of a total of almost 16Mn total US sales in 2024.

It will be interesting to see how the various European mandates and targets stand. The European market and manufacturing are much less integrated into the NA market.


I hear what you are saying but if I was hell-bent on owning an EV (which I am not), I wouldn't be concerned with a 100A service. Between the newer generation of load-sensing EVSEs and the fact that most charging is done at night, it likely wouldn't be an issue.

Ford Lightning. Spendy.

True, but it's California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, Washington and Washington DC.

Total population of 115m. Is that enough to push the US auto industry to flip to EV and reduce or eliminate ICE? I don't know, time will tell, but 115m is quite a lot of Americans.

 

[daftandbarmy]

You expect that the entire auto industry will change course and produce only EV/PHEVs in just 10 years? Who is going to be buying those cars, understanding that the price starts at about $50K CAD.

Car Sales First Half 2025

Looking at the real numbers, the top sellers in all but he pick-up category cost below $50K on average. The RAV 4 and CR-V have trims above $50K, but most sold aren't those trims.

The top selling North American vehicles of 2024 are almost exclusively non-EVs. The top two are pickup trucks, and have been for a long time.

You will note that those brands with equivalent EV models only sell a fraction of the gas powered versions.

If the customers won't buy them, you can't build them, and there's not much the government can do about that supply and demand reality.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/

 

[IKnowNothing]

Relevant

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-climate-change-environment-caucus-1.7625657

I'd say his own party and failure to keep them in line presents a bigger threat than the opposition. If he's doing what needs to be done it limits PP's voice to chattering the wind trying to manufacture outrage against competence- but if he has to change course to keep the Trudeau acolytes onside it's going to open him up to legitimate attack.

Like a tank of goldfish- they've already forgotten where they were polling prior to reverting back to the centre.

 

[YZT580]

We as in Canada or we as in globally?

In Canada, sure, get rid of it. It wont matter if the rest of the global economy decides to make the switch to making solely EVs between 2030-2040, we will be going along for the ride. Or if the global economy doesn't, then we wont either.

Globally? That ship has sailed, a lot of Europe and the biggest state in the USA has already committed to making the switch, if they keep their fingers on the scale, and others join them, it's a fait accompli.

and they are fighting against the tide there in a lot of places. Norway gets away with it because they have the power. Britain is a basket case that will probably do a 180 after the next election (if not before), Germany has hung itself with their total wind programme and will have to make massive investments in conventional generating stations just to meet current need let alone AI requirements and the addition of millions of charging stations. I don't say it won't happen but most people's budgets can't support the changes right now and governments are going bankrupt trying to provide funding when there isn't any available. As for California will it be able to push against another 3 years of Trump? Power prices there are much higher than elsewhere and businesses are responding by moving out. Have they solved their refinery problems yet? Last I heard they were leaving too.

 

[brihard]

Relevant

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-climate-change-environment-caucus-1.7625657

I'd say his own party and failure to keep them in line presents a bigger threat than the opposition. If he's doing what needs to be done it limits PP's voice to chattering the wind trying to manufacture outrage against competence- but if he has to change course to keep the Trudeau acolytes onside it's going to open him up to legitimate attack.

Like a tank of goldfish- they've already forgotten where they were polling prior to reverting back to the centre.

So do we want a super controlling PMO or not? For the last few years that’s been presented in discussions here as a major problem.

Parliamentarians are going to have an express views, and within the closed confines of cabinet there can still be raucous debate and discussion about what will form policy. The PM isn’t (or shouldn’t be) a dictator there.

The existence of independently voiced opinions on different subjects is in and of itself fine; our House of Commons exists in part for that purpose. The extent to which that drives cabinet’s choices on policy may not be proportionate to the loudness of those voices. PMMC has a couple years to work with here before an election and he knows it; he can withstand some noise to signal as long as he can push the signal through. We’ll see if he can.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Relevant

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-climate-change-environment-caucus-1.7625657

I'd say his own party and failure to keep them in line presents a bigger threat than the opposition. If he's doing what needs to be done it limits PP's voice to chattering the wind trying to manufacture outrage against competence- but if he has to change course to keep the Trudeau acolytes onside it's going to open him up to legitimate attack.

Like a tank of goldfish- they've already forgotten where they were polling prior to reverting back to the centre.

I think you are bang on. He takes the wind from the CPC by pushing into their territory, see my post above. But the LPC has a wing that wont enjoy PMMC's leadership.

But I think the fall will be around deliverables. People want things to get better.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Congratulations... the highest unemployment rate since 2016:

Unemployment rate hit 7.1% as Canada shed 66,000 jobs in August​

Unemployment was up for the second straight month in Canada and has reached the highest level since 2016 outside of the pandemic years, according to new data.

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that in August, the national unemployment rate climbed to 7.1 per cent from 6.9 per cent in July.

August’s reading was also the highest unemployment rate in Canada since May 2016, excluding data from 2020 and 2021.

The agency reported Canada’s job market shed 66,000 positions in August, which was led by losses in part-time work.

A Reuters poll of economists heading into the release expected a gain of 10,000 jobs and the unemployment rate would rise to seven per cent for the month, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

Unemployment rate hit 7.1% as Canada shed 66,000 jobs in August - National | Globalnews.ca

Statistics Canada says unemployment in Canada climbed for the second straight month in August to 7.1 per cent from 6.9 per cent in July, while shedding 66,000 jobs last month.

globalnews.ca

 

[brihard]

Congratulations... the highest unemployment rate since 2016:

Unemployment rate hit 7.1% as Canada shed 66,000 jobs in August​

Unemployment was up for the second straight month in Canada and has reached the highest level since 2016 outside of the pandemic years, according to new data.

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that in August, the national unemployment rate climbed to 7.1 per cent from 6.9 per cent in July.

August’s reading was also the highest unemployment rate in Canada since May 2016, excluding data from 2020 and 2021.

The agency reported Canada’s job market shed 66,000 positions in August, which was led by losses in part-time work.

A Reuters poll of economists heading into the release expected a gain of 10,000 jobs and the unemployment rate would rise to seven per cent for the month, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

Unemployment rate hit 7.1% as Canada shed 66,000 jobs in August - National | Globalnews.ca

Statistics Canada says unemployment in Canada climbed for the second straight month in August to 7.1 per cent from 6.9 per cent in July, while shedding 66,000 jobs last month.

globalnews.ca

Yup, as I mentioned above, 60,000 part time and 6,000 full time jobs shed. I don’t know if that’s seasonally adjusted. But it’s well below what was forecast (modest job growth).

Interestingly there was a significant gain in construction jobs but again I don’t now if that’s seasonally adjusted.

 

[Halifax Tar]

The top selling North American vehicles of 2024 are almost exclusively non-EVs. The top two are pickup trucks, and have been for a long time.

You will note that those brands with equivalent EV models only sell a fraction of the gas powered versions.

If the customers won't buy them, you can't build them, and there's not much the government can do about that supply and demand reality.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g60385784/bestselling-cars-2024/

The article stopped for me at 6. Who were the top 5 ?

 

[Altair]

and they are fighting against the tide there in a lot of places. Norway gets away with it because they have the power. Britain is a basket case that will probably do a 180 after the next election (if not before), Germany has hung itself with their total wind programme and will have to make massive investments in conventional generating stations just to meet current need let alone AI requirements and the addition of millions of charging stations. I don't say it won't happen but most people's budgets can't support the changes right now and governments are going bankrupt trying to provide funding when there isn't any available. As for California will it be able to push against another 3 years of Trump? Power prices there are much higher than elsewhere and businesses are responding by moving out. Have they solved their refinery problems yet? Last I heard they were leaving too.

I kind of shot myself in the foot here saying California and not all the other states but here we go.

California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont, Washington and Washington DC, combined population of 115m.

Will they all make it over the finish line? No clue. Plans are just that, plans. But if they do, if, I do expect it to have quite the impact on the North American auto market, which may bleed over into other states, and at that point, here in Canada.

Or they might all fall flat on their faces.

I can't tell, I won't even pretend to even guess what is happening next year, never mind 10 years from now.

 

[Halifax Tar]

Ford Lightning. Spendy.

If I didn't need to pull, carry and go offroad I think I could justify the spending with savings on gas and maintenance.

But that isn't reality for me.

 

[Czech_pivo]

PM’s daily schedule has an announcement at 11 Eastern regarding “Canada’s strategic sectors”.

We can expect reporters to probably spend at least a bit of time asking about the pretty ugly jobs numbers that just came out; 60,000 part time and 6,000 full time jobs lost in August. Unemployment rate climbs to 7.1 per cent in August as economy loses 66,000 jobs

In September we 'should' see some better numbers. Alot of the support staff in the various school boards (at least in Ontario, which means multiple thousands), claim 'EI' for the months of July and August due to how their employment/pay cycle works. Come September they all go back to work and stop claiming EI. I know this to be true as my wife, who is Speech Pathologist with a public board in Ontario is eligible to claim EI for July/Aug due to the same fact - all 19 SLP's at her board do this, along with all the Social Workers, Child Youth Councilors, Psychologists.

 

[QV]

The article stopped for me at 6. Who were the top 5 ?

5. Honda CRV
4. Tesla model Y
3. Toyota Rav 4
2. Chev Silverado
1. Ford F150 booyaksha!

 

[Remius]

Carney to pause 2026 EV target, announce new tariff supports

Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to announce a nine-part strategy to support sectors impacted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which will include a review of the federal government’s electric vehicle (EV) mandate, CTV News has learned.

www.ctvnews.ca

Previews have begun.

 

[Halifax Tar]

5. Honda CRV
4. Tesla model Y
3. Toyota Rav 4
2. Chev Silverado
1. Ford F150 booyaksha!

My guy!

We do have to clean up these recall issues. Ford could do with better QA.

 

[daftandbarmy]

The article stopped for me at 6. Who were the top 5 ?

1. Ford F-150
2. GMC Sierra
3. Toyota RAV 4
4. Tesla Model Y
5. Honda CRV

 

[brihard]

1. Ford F-150
2. GMC Sierra
3. Toyota RAV 4
4. Tesla Model Y
5. Honda CRV

Just throwing it out there, I think there are relatively fewer pickup truck options compared to full size SUVs, crossovers, mid sized and compact sedans… The couple pickups may be topping the list due to capturing a much larger share of a relatively smaller market. Most cars on the road aren’t pickups; far from it.