Global decrease in population

[Kirkhill]

Sure, just a practical apprenticeship that started when they were kids. When you look at standard times for medieval trades they spent a really long time before they were journeymen, and it's really no different now, just formalized at schools instead of learning from your famliy.

Modern farming also has a ton of agricultural science behind it, and really nothing wrong about 2,3 or 4 year programs for people to get standardized learning along with advances in the field.

If you've ever had a shitty mentor there are a lot of downsides to all OJT as well, and it's a lot harder to unlearn bad habits or things that are just wrong than get it right the first time.

There is a world of difference between offering an education and requiring an education.

If I, as a farmer, tradesman or lawyer, want to improve my chances and seek out better information to assist me that is my right that is one thing. Liberal.

If I, as a farmer, tradesman or lawyer , am denied the right to earn a living due to the lack of a government approved certificate that is another. Illiberal.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Sure, just a practical apprenticeship that started when they were kids. When you look at standard times for medieval trades they spent a really long time before they were journeymen, and it's really no different now, just formalized at schools instead of learning from your famliy.

Modern farming also has a ton of agricultural science behind it, and really nothing wrong about 2,3 or 4 year programs for people to get standardized learning along with advances in the field.

If you've ever had a shitty mentor there are a lot of downsides to all OJT as well, and it's a lot harder to unlearn bad habits or things that are just wrong than get it right the first time.

Most apprenticeships were away from the family, back in the day. In fact British culture at the time felt that it was best that children 13 and up be educated/trained outside of the family.

 

[Navy_Pete]

There is a world of difference between offering an education and requiring an education.

If I, as a farmer, tradesman or lawyer, want to improve my chances and seek out better information to assist me that is my right that is one thing. Liberal.

If I, as a farmer, tradesman or lawyer , am denied the right to earn a living due to the lack of a government approved certificate that is another. Illiberal.

Using those 3 as an example is pretty ridiculous; if a farmer has a run of bad crops because they don't know how to adapt then they are out of business, if an untrained/unqualified person tries to do something like electrical, welding, or engineering does things then other people can and have been hurt/killed. Sure, certified people get it wrong, but properly regulated professions and trades also have disciplinary powers with actual authority.

Requiring certification may be illiberal in the sense of having rules, but that's the trade off of a functioning society with reasonable minimum safety standards. And a lot of the certifications allow people to get qualified with demonstration of equivalent experience with some kind of performance verification so it's not like the formal education is the only way to get certified for a lot of trades.

Including requirements for hairdressers is a bit absurd, but an all or nothing approach to certification would be pretty ignorant. There also isn't an insurance company on the planet that would support that, so a lot of it is driven by capitalism.

But the never ending pseudo intellectual disdain for formal education carries on I guess, and we should all just have huge families that stick to the inherited trades of our name sakes.

 

[Navy_Pete]

Most apprenticeships were away from the family, back in the day. In fact British culture at the time felt that it was best that children 13 and up be educated/trained outside of the family.

Sure, and what happened with my dad's family for the most part, but every single one of the boys up until that point was helping out with some basic stone masonry, even if only one of my uncles took it up as a trade. The rest went of to trade schools and apprenticeships in the different fields they went into.

I guess my point was, by the time they were journeymen, they all had about 10 years of formal training and apprenticeship time under their belt, plus informal time when they were younger, so it's not like they weren't getting an education, just different then how it's done now.

 

[Kirkhill]

Using those 3 as an example is pretty ridiculous; if a farmer has a run of bad crops because they don't know how to adapt then they are out of business, if an untrained/unqualified person tries to do something like electrical, welding, or engineering does things then other people can and have been hurt/killed. Sure, certified people get it wrong, but properly regulated professions and trades also have disciplinary powers with actual authority.

Requiring certification may be illiberal in the sense of having rules, but that's the trade off of a functioning society with reasonable minimum safety standards. And a lot of the certifications allow people to get qualified with demonstration of equivalent experience with some kind of performance verification so it's not like the formal education is the only way to get certified for a lot of trades.

Including requirements for hairdressers is a bit absurd, but an all or nothing approach to certification would be pretty ignorant. There also isn't an insurance company on the planet that would support that, so a lot of it is driven by capitalism.

But the never ending pseudo intellectual disdain for formal education carries on I guess, and we should all just have huge families that stick to the inherited trades of our name sakes.

Still not getting it.

Freely acquiring an education and certification is not equivalent to requiring an education and certification.

If I want to putter around my own farm, build my own shack, tinker around my own tool shed, or represent myself in court that should be a valid course of action. I may be a fool and I may fail across the board but that is up to me.

I may not be able to sell anything I make because it doesn't have a recognized guarantor to vouch for my products, but again, that is my choice.

But, if I can create something that I can then submit to CSA or UL to be objectively evaluated and certified so that it finds a market then that too should be, and is, a valid course of action.

I struggle with governments and societies that seek to control access to the labour force through certification.

I earned my degree 50 years ago. For 35 years I was gainfully employed in my field in multiple jurisdictions. I had the option of joining a professional society but I declined.

Then government employed people in a related field decided their bargaining power would be improved if they were recognized as professionals like professional engineers. They created an institute that was recognized by the government and absconded with the dictionary, declaring ownership of words, including the words used to describe the activities in which I had been engaged for 35 years to feed my family.

I engineered systems for the food industry. That is what I learned at school. That is the craft I honed over 35 years (now 50) of employment for multiple clients and employers. I was employed as a sales engineer and as a food engineer but I couldn't descrbe myself as that because the Engineering Brotherhood owned that word.

In most/many jurisdictions they do not own the word. They own the designation "Professional" engineer.
And people are free to make of that designation what they will when hiring.

In my case I reverted back to the designation granted when I graduated, Food Scientist, and then spent endless hours explaining what a Food Scientist was and how it could benefit clients.

Then the previously referred to institute declared, with government approval, that they owned the words "Food Scientist" and that I was no longer allowed to practice locally unless I paid them their geld and got their rubber stamp.

I was still allowed to practice in my home jurisdiction without paying mail. I could practice in the US and was welcomed. I could practice in Denmark, Sweden and the UK.

But I couldn't practice in my home province, or my home country outside of the province which granted me my degree and permitted me to practice without charging me a continuing tax for the privilege of working.

 

[tomydoom]

Aaaaand....the Nobel Prize in Economics goes for work on "creative destruction".

Funnily enough, I shared a house with the one winners son, when I was in University. The son also took economics in university, talk about a long shadow.

 

[Navy_Pete]

@Kirkhill I never suggested farmers require an education, just that it's available and there are benefits to it. Also wasn't talking about hobbies, as I don't think the blacksmith guild is too concerned if I bang out some poorly made knives in my backyard.

I'm an engineer myself, but like everyone in the CAF don't sign off on anything as a P.Eng, so that designation is of limited use to me personally, but we also definitely require contractors to provide designs and drawings that are signed off by someone with suitable quals, as well as listed products for the related standards (like building code for normal infrastructure). Sometimes that signature is what stops them from bidding or suggesting stupid things, and occasionally when they are shit enough complaints to the professional standards boards at least gets them off our projects.

There is a place for everything, and people can find limited work doing fabrication, metal working, internal engineering etc but that really only works when you are in the same company doing internal work that someone else is certifying. With the rise of gig economy having those professional certs is just cost of doing business, and that's just the reality. Really bites some people in the ass that spent their whole life working for one company where they joined out of HS doing some kind of skilled work they picked up on the job that get laid off and realized they can't get work as a welder because they never had a ticket or have passed any of the weld standard cert tests. Met a few guys like that while going through school doing unskilled piece work shifts on the side and that's all they could get because their time at Acme inc counted for nothing. It was pretty sad, but also a good lesson learnd to tick the required boxes so your resume gets through the first cut.

 

[CBH99]

Why would anybody who is working on AI slow down? Do you understand the advantage that accrues to any person, corporation or country that gets a lead on AI?

So I'll admit it - no.

I don't think I quite grasp the dull depth or scale of how getting a lead on AI will give a person, corporation, or country a distinct advantage. (If I'm being totally honest)

AI will be a huge advantage for companies & corporations vs their competitors, absolutely. (Countries too)

The analytics, economic or corporate intelligence, etc will absolutely give companies some clear advantages vs companies that aren't employing AI for those same things

I know AI will be this amazing thing that helps humanity solve all kinds of problems & challenges we haven't been able to solve yet.

Medical science, environmental science, agricultural science, etc all stand to vastly expand/change for the better because of AI

And I believe that if used responsibly it can absolutely be a massive benefit to have for a variety of reasons.

...

All I'm suggesting here is that we have to be careful in how we use/employ artificial intelligence is all...

Yes it's important for Canadian companies to increase productivity. Yes it's important that we as a country aren't left behind in a technology the rest of the world embraces & adopts.

But I feel like we're rushing into this world changing technology awfully quickly...

It is quite probable we will eliminate the need for human workers in a variety of sectors - or substatially reduce the number of humans needed. (Lawyers, taxi/Uber drivers, truck drivers. Probably transit drivers. Fast food workers. Retail staff. Analysts. I mean hell, I suppose almost any job a human can do, a far smarter AI could do & do better)

What then?? Yeah it's great that big employers will get more done with fewer operating expenses (re payroll), because those businesses will be even more profitable than they already are...

But what about all those people who's jobs get taken by AI/humanoid robots?? Should they just chill at home and enjoy their Guaranteed Income Support??

 

[Halifax Tar]

My brother and I are doing our part! My brother has 2 kids with a 3rd on the way. I have a child and my wife and I want to have two more children.

None of my cousins and also almost none of my friends have any children. I have 5 cousins on my Father's side of our family, they are all women in their late 20s/mid 30s and none of them have kids. It actually makes my Aunts and Uncles a bit sad I believe at family gatherings as they have no grandchildren to see.

I think, generally, people will come to regret not having children. For the vast majority It makes you a better person in everyway. My wife and I met late, had one amazing daughter and sadly weren't able to have another. But we both wanted large families. Nevertheless we are happy with our little family.

 

[Edward Campbell]

I think, generally, people will come to regret not having children. For the vast majority It makes you a better person in everyway. My wife and I met late and had one amazing daughter and sadly weren't able to have another. But we both wanted large families. Nevertheless we are happy with our little family.

I agree; I am approaching the end of my life, and while I can look back on several things about which I am happy and even proud (and a few about which I am not), my two sons and now my grandsons are the best thing that ever happened to my late wife and me, by far.

 

[Kirkhill]

So I'll admit it - no.

I don't think I quite grasp the dull depth or scale of how getting a lead on AI will give a person, corporation, or country a distinct advantage. (If I'm being totally honest)

AI will be a huge advantage for companies & corporations vs their competitors, absolutely. (Countries too)

The analytics, economic or corporate intelligence, etc will absolutely give companies some clear advantages vs companies that aren't employing AI for those same things

I know AI will be this amazing thing that helps humanity solve all kinds of problems & challenges we haven't been able to solve yet.

Medical science, environmental science, agricultural science, etc all stand to vastly expand/change for the better because of AI

And I believe that if used responsibly it can absolutely be a massive benefit to have for a variety of reasons.

...

All I'm suggesting here is that we have to be careful in how we use/employ artificial intelligence is all...

Yes it's important for Canadian companies to increase productivity. Yes it's important that we as a country aren't left behind in a technology the rest of the world embraces & adopts.

But I feel like we're rushing into this world changing technology awfully quickly...

It is quite probable we will eliminate the need for human workers in a variety of sectors - or substatially reduce the number of humans needed. (Lawyers, taxi/Uber drivers, truck drivers. Probably transit drivers. Fast food workers. Retail staff. Analysts. I mean hell, I suppose almost any job a human can do, a far smarter AI could do & do better)

What then?? Yeah it's great that big employers will get more done with fewer operating expenses (re payroll), because those businesses will be even more profitable than they already are...

But what about all those people who's jobs get taken by AI/humanoid robots?? Should they just chill at home and enjoy their Guaranteed Income Support??

Just think of all the time they will have available to volunteer!

 

[CBH99]

I agree; I am approaching the end of my life, and while I can look back on several things about which I am happy and even proud (and a few about which I am not), my two sons and now my grandsons are the best thing that ever happened to my late wife and me, by far.

Mr. Campbell, may I be so bold as to kind of put you on the spot...??

Your post here has me wanting to ask you something I try to work into most conversations I have when chatting with senior citizens...

Looking back on your life, what "life advice" would you give to the younger generations to help them have as few regrets as possible when they get older & are reflecting back on their lives?


There is so much quiet and profound wisdom that tragically goes unshared by those who have navigated this adventure we call life before we did.

I just try to soak up what I can, where I can, and share it with others when it feels like it may be helpful.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Watching this video, the first 20 minutes he talks about how global demographics are on the downturn. What is interesting is how fast the rate of decline is in various parts of the world. As the global population shrinks, it might remove some of the historical conflict points and create new ones.

Laughs in African

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View this content on Instagram

 

[Edward Campbell]

Mr. Campbell, may I be so bold as to kind of put you on the spot...??

Your post here has me wanting to ask you something I try to work into most conversations I have when chatting with senior citizens...

Looking back on your life, what "life advice" would you give to the younger generations to help them have as few regrets as possible when they get older & are reflecting back on their lives?


There is so much quiet and profound wisdom that tragically goes unshared by those who have navigated this adventure we call life before we did.

I just try to soak up what I can, where I can, and share it with others when it feels like it may be helpful.

Oh, my goodness ...

But, OK, here are some thoughts about how I wish I had lived ...

Be kind, it's not too hard, it doesn't hurt, it doesn't even take all that much effort ...

Try to do what's "right" - right for you and right for others, too ...

Be honest, especially in your dealings with family and friends - don't hide fears and problems.

It's not hard to be "smart," it just takes a bit of effort, but being smart is a lot different from acting like a 'smarty pants.' If you know something, if you're a bit better than the other gals and guys at this or that, then share your knowledge - life is easier and happier when you're part of a team that works well together.

Friends, including the ones who are family, matter; enemies are transient. But, "love your enemy" is really good advice - hard, but good.

Believe in something - it doesn't have to be religion, but religion is not silly if it helps you live a better, fuller, happier life.

 

[daftandbarmy]

Oh, my goodness ...

But, OK, here are some thoughts about how I wish I had lived ...

Be kind, it's not too hard, it doesn't hurt, it doesn't even take all that much effort ...

Try to do what's "right" - right for you and right for others, too ...

Be honest, especially in your dealings with family and friends - don't hide fears and problems.

It's not hard to be "smart," it just takes a bit of effort, but being smart is a lot different from acting like a 'smarty pants.' If you know something, if you're a bit better than the other gals and guys at this or that, then share your knowledge - life is easier and happier when you're part of a team that works well together.

Friends, including the ones who are family, matter; enemies are transient. But, "love your enemy" is really good advice - hard, but good.

Believe in something - it doesn't have to be religion, but religion is not silly if it helps you live a better, fuller, happier life.

And if comms break down move location and keep trying, right?

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Laughs in African

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View this content on Instagram

He touches on Africa as well, currently still climbing, but the rate of climb is slowing and starting to dip in some African countries.

 

[CBH99]

He touches on Africa as well, currently still climbing, but the rate of climb is slowing and starting to dip in some African countries.

The sad part of this whole thing is that this was entirely preventable.

It is the policies (and quite frankly, the subversion) of modern governments the world over that is causing a cost of living crisis, and a pending unemployment crisis, and a 'social satisfaction' crisis for many...all of which have a huge influence over whether or not humans wanna have babies.


With the cost of everything always going up (especially here in Canada over the last decade) date nights happen less often, people date less often. Rent or mortgage sucks up more & more of the stagnant paycheck. That smaller remaining amount still has to buy the same amount of groceries, but now they've gone up too. Etc etc.

Even with government help - which in Canada is substantial - people don't feel secure enough in their situations to really even be thinking about having kids anytime soon.



Ofcourse there are factors affecting this situation that weren't foreseeable, re microplastics, air pollution, etc. (Although if those were truly the culprit I wonder why Indians seem to be banging like bunnies & popping out more than their fair share of babies?)

I guess in keeping the glass half full, there could be some net positives of the incoming population crash. Rent, real estate prices, issues of overcrowding in cities, etc all stand to ease the strain of entering or remaining in the 'getting by comfortably enough' middle class.

(Thats if we still have a middle class once AI replaces most people, so that's a BIG "if")

 

[Colin Parkinson]

As a restaurant owner explained to me. If each family cuts back by one meal out a month, then that might be 1,000 family visits he does not get in a month and that is a major impact to the business. Canadian consumers are very price sensitive, far more than US ones. Hence why some US businesses don't do well up here, assuming consumer trends will be similar.

 

[Kirkhill]

Whether it’s a ‘productivity puzzle’ or the ‘British disease’, the UK economy has been underperforming for decades

Economists have argued for decades about the best treatment for the UK’s persistent economic malaise.

theconversation.com

Productivity, not population. The British disease of the 1960s is now endemic in the West. And the solution is not multi-cultural immigration but investment in ourselves.

 

[CBH99]

We aren't importing people for their benefit. We are importing people for our benefit. You can quibble on those benefits. But corporate Canada is quite content to have these immigrants.

Because they get to save a boatload of money by paying them less than minimum wage, and now that the TFW process has become so smooth it's fairly easy for their legal & HR teams to bring them over.

Gone are the days of "Can this job be filled by a natural born Canadian?"



The corportations say they have to import all of these TFW's because they have a severe shortage of applicants. That's bullshit.

The economy is pretty bad, to the point it's actually shrunk. (Contraction of 0.3% overall.)

If these corporations would put up Help Wanted signs & advertise on social media like they used to (think it was McDonald's that had an ad emphasizing flexible hours, benefits, and even assistance with post-secondary costs) I can almost guarantee they could hire locals in fairly short order...

But they don't. And I think we all know why.

...

If we drastically reduced immigration (like the Liberals are saying they have - but like anything else that comes from the LPC info machine, I remain skeptical)

The price of home ownership may come down a bit, but the entry level for home ownership will remain high.

No political party wants to burst the bubble that the Canadian economy is largely surviving on, re the equity people have in their homes.

(Even though the bubble is in desperate need of popping, no party wants to be known as the party that cost millions of families the equity they are relying on to make ends meet)

...

Yes the government will help with the cost of having a child (and a pretty generous amount at that) to try to encourage more people to have kids.

But as long as most of us remain fairly broke, or require dual incomes just to pay the rent, our birthrate is going to continue to decline.

And the more unemployment we have due to AI, automation, and just shitty government policies - the more the problem will be exasperated.

...

Personally I am very curious to see what long term impact the jab will have on our reproduction rates.

Specifically I'm curious to see what affect the jab will have on people who were kids when they got it, and reach the age where they want to start a family of their own.

And before anybody points out my obvious distrust of the government and the vaccine, aka my conspiracy theory tendency, let's not forget that it's affect on people's ability to have kids is absolutely critical to our species continuing on - so it's worth watching the data & keeping an eye on it as the population ages.




Blah Blah Blah...

Cheers